Everything Trade Chatter

[JamesNaismith]

Let's say we did Ginobili's deal (I think there's some issues with it though). Here's what the summer situation looks like with CoJo, Sully, Ross and JV's deals going out and Covington, Millsap, Nerlens coming in. Source: Basketball Insiders

Guaranteed Salaries Owed in 2017-18:
DeMar DeRozan: $27,739,975
DeMarre Carroll: $14,800,000
Jakob Poeltl: $2,947,320
Lucas Nogueira: $2,947,305
Bruno Caboclo: $2,451,225
Delon Wright: $1,645,200
Pascal Siakam: $1,249,920
Norman Powell (TO): $1,014,746
Total: $55,579,260

Then you have Lowry, Millsap, Nerlens as the main free agents you need to bring back.

Now let's say worst case scenario where all 3 guys require a max to bring them back. That's just under $92M in total right there based on a $102M cap projection (You're paying Lowry and Millsap $33.6M each in the first year and Noel $24M). So you're looking at a $147M payroll with 11 players signed. Toss in our draft pick and a few minimums to fill out the roster and let's just round it to about a $150M payroll.

Luxury tax threshold should be around $122M in 2017-18 so we'd be in the highest bracket of tax "offense" being over $28M over the tax. Which means MLSE would pay $3.75 per dollar for the first $20M over ($75M) and then another $4.25 for the next $8M ($34M - not 100% sure if it's $4.25M for 5M then $4.75 for 3M or this way). So you're looking at like $110M in luxury tax payments on top of $150M for the players' wages.

That's the absolute worst case scenario but yeah it's pretty bad. Especially when you consider we'd be getting hit by the repeater tax afterwards.

...and that right there is why I have a very hard time seeing us make the move for both. That's an insane amount of luxury tax to pay. I would then turn my attention to maybe someone like Favors just to delay the tax for a year or something.

[Lupe]

The reality though is if MLSE isn't willing to pay the tax we aren't going anywhere anyway.

If you don't trade JV and are able to get Millsap by moving out Ross, CoJo and others it's a bit more manageable. Then you have about $71M in guaranteed money owed. If you can get Millsap/Lowry for $65M combined in the first year then you're looking at pushing $140M and being about $18M over the tax threshold.

No matter what, if we acquire Millsap, unless we also dump Carroll somehow MLSE is going to have to pony up and pay some serious tax money. There's no way to Donald Trump this unfortunately.

[Scraptor]

Let's say we did Ginobili's deal (I think there's some issues with it though). Here's what the summer situation looks like with CoJo, Sully, Ross and JV's deals going out and Covington, Millsap, Nerlens coming in. Source: Basketball Insiders

Guaranteed Salaries Owed in 2017-18:
DeMar DeRozan: $27,739,975
DeMarre Carroll: $14,800,000
Jakob Poeltl: $2,947,320
Lucas Nogueira: $2,947,305
Bruno Caboclo: $2,451,225
Delon Wright: $1,645,200
Pascal Siakam: $1,249,920
Norman Powell (TO): $1,014,746
Total: $55,579,260

Then you have Lowry, Millsap, Nerlens as the main free agents you need to bring back.

Now let's say worst case scenario where all 3 guys require a max to bring them back. That's just under $92M in total right there based on a $102M cap projection (You're paying Lowry and Millsap $33.6M each in the first year and Noel $24M). So you're looking at a $147M payroll with 11 players signed. Toss in our draft pick and a few minimums to fill out the roster and let's just round it to about a $150M payroll.

Luxury tax threshold should be around $122M in 2017-18 so we'd be in the highest bracket of tax "offense" being over $28M over the tax. Which means MLSE would pay $3.75 per dollar for the first $20M over ($75M) and then another $4.25 for the next $8M ($34M - not 100% sure if it's $4.25M for 5M then $4.75 for 3M or this way). So you're looking at like $110M in luxury tax payments on top of $150M for the players' wages.

That's the absolute worst case scenario but yeah it's pretty bad. Especially when you consider we'd be getting hit by the repeater tax afterwards.

No dude, the $3.75 level is for the incremental dollars above $20mm over the cap. The first $20mm over would cost us $45mm in luxury tax (7.5+8.75+12.5+16.25).

$28mm would thus be $75mm, which is still pretty high. But if you can dump Carroll to say Brooklyn and give them our 2019 pick, the tax bill would be roughly...
(28 - 14.8 = 13.2 over the line) so 7.5 + 8.75 + 3.2*2.50 = $24.25mm in luxury tax.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm

[Lupe]

No dude, the $3.75 level is for the incremental dollars above $20mm over the cap. The first $20mm over would cost us $45mm in luxury tax (7.5+8.75+12.5+16.25).

$28mm would thus be $75mm, which is still pretty high. But if you can dump Carroll to say Brooklyn and give them our 2019 pick, the tax bill would be roughly...
(28 - 14.8 = 13.2 over the line) so 7.5 + 8.75 + 3.2*2.50 = $24.25mm in luxury tax.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm

You're right I totally messed that part up

[Lupe]

I'll add that it is possible ATL pushes for more. I seriously doubt Denver ponies up much for Millsap, he'd be a huge flight risk for them. If we can do the deal above, I pull the trigger without hesitation.

Some notes on this, Denver is a real threat to outbid us for him.

Denver reportedly offered Faried some prospects and first round draft picks for him last season. They, like us have a lot of depth in positions and could give up several players without really doing significant damage to their roster.

The flight risk isn't necessarily that high. They'd be a playoff team in the west for starters and secondly Millsap actually grew up near Denver in Montebello.

Also, for those who didn’t know, Millsap lived in the city of Montebello from the age of two through 13, meaning if he were to come to Denver it would be a homecoming of sorts.

http://milehighsports.com/paul-mills...home-colorado/

[Axel]

My eyes tend to gloss over fan create trade proposals but just wanted to add to keep in mind:

Atlanta is a team that historically never does a full rebuild because then ownership group is very happy to be a playoff team that doesn't pay luxury tax as it maximizes their profits. Therefore any trade that is a full rebuild for them is less likely. They currently sit 5th in the East - which is their financial sweet spot.

Rentals are notoriously difficult to predict the market for. Reportedly, Atlanta isn't shopping Millsap as much as they are fielding calls for him. If the return isn't there for them, they might hold him and take their chances to resign him.

Denver is the other listed team to be interested and they are difficult to peg in this. They are currently tied for 8th (but lose tie breaker) in the West with Sacramento. If Millsap is leaving Atlanta (as a free agent) because he wants to sign with a contender then it's hard to see him resigning with Denver, regardless of past mailing addresses as a youth.

If the Raps do make a move or some of the moves being floated around, retaining those players past this season will likely mean going into the tax. Will MLSE approve that? I like to believe that Masai could see anyone on anything at anytime but the cold hard reality of dollars and cents might be too much for ownership to approve.

As always, make sure you use the trade machine to match salaries and consider that both Atlanta and Toronto already have 15 players on their roster - so unbalanced trades should identify players to get waived (while keeping in mind that owners tend to not like to eat salary so unguaranteed or partially guaranteed deals are more logical).

[DanH]

Some notes on this, Denver is a real threat to outbid us for him.

Denver reportedly offered Faried some prospects and first round draft picks for him last season. They, like us have a lot of depth in positions and could give up several players without really doing significant damage to their roster.

The flight risk isn't necessarily that high. They'd be a playoff team in the west for starters and secondly Millsap actually grew up near Denver in Montebello.



http://milehighsports.com/paul-mills...home-colorado/

Giving up that much value for a couple of seasons to ingratiate yourself to a player and convince him to re-sign is one thing (nevermind additional moves you might make to try to get the team winning enough to keep him). Giving up those same assets for the same player when he's a year older, with a couple of months (starting from well below .500) to try to convince him to stay, is an entirely different equation.

[Majesiu]

The flight risk isn't necessarily that high. They'd be a playoff team in the west for starters.

I'm not so sure about being playoff team, they plated better with Harris back, but battle for 8th spot in the west is really close (4 teams: SAC, DEN, POR, NOP within 1 game) and reward not really great - quick swipe in 1st round. Milsap should them get over the top, but they won't catch up this season 7th spot surely, and really how he is a good fit with their timeline when all Mudiay/Jokic/Nurkic/Murray/Harris are all under 23? They'll probably trade some of them, but I'd rather build team on these young guys and flip depth for more assets than bringing Milsap on the board.

Key thing is what ATL want. As is repeatedly said they don't want to tank, but after Horford failure last year they come around and want to flip Milsap for something. So let's dive and look into their next round contracts, Milsap is reported to opt out (one can assume that means not only he is looking for another team, but also for substantial rise from $21.5 M, which also lowers his trade value).

C	Dwight Howard	$23,5M	31
SG	Kent Bazemore	$16,9M	27
PG	Dennis Schroder	$15,5M	23
PG	Malcolm Delaney	$2,5M	27
SF	Taurean Waller-Prince	$2,4M	22
SF	DeAndre' Bembry	$1,5M	22
PF	Ryan Kelly	$1M	25

And that's all, it is $62M commited for these 7 players, renouncing everyone (not really an option, they have to use bird rights if they want to fill up rooster with nba caliber talent) gives them almost $40M, so max territory, it's surely be different team for ATL next year. Their depth chart is not really deep for next year:
Schroder/Delaney
Bazemore
Waller-Prince/Bembry
Kelly
Howard
And only 3 players seems viable on that rooster. Other than Howard/Baze/Dennis only Delaney is averaging more than 10 MPG (16,5), rest of these guys is barely playing.

Incoming picks are 2nd rounders and 2018 first from MIN, so not bad.

They need more players for upcoming season, and they even might cut expirings to make a deal if that means bringing more guaranteed contracts they'd like to have in the future. Their biggest hole is at PF and SF, they should be looking at guard and center depth. If you watched ATL, their offense involved a lot of ball movement, creating wide open shoots, so definitely adding players that can shoot will entice them - Ross. Another interesting player would be PPat, but he is FA, so not really huge value for them. Both Nougeira and Poeltl are capable backups, but I assume it'd be weird bringing BeBe back to ATL, so Poeltl seems like another piece the'd be interested in. Siakam also have superb first half ot the season and caught many eyes. We have a lot of players ATL should interested, and what's even better they are locked on cheap contracts, any combination of them should be enough to get the trade done, because ATL need to make a move before trade deadline if they want to stay competitive next season. Using cap space + resigning expirings (minus Milsap, who is as good as gone) probably won't be enough to keep in the playoffs next season.(and they are overachieving with 2 games over .500 right now). Contracts works also in favor of Nuggets, because their whole rooster (minus Gallo with PO for next year) is locked up for upcoming years.
If they'd look at our rooster I guess that'd be tiers of interest:
Tier 1 - Ross
Tier 2 - Poeltl, Joseph, Powell
Tier 3 - Siakam, Nogueira
Tier 4 - Patterson, Delon
Bruno - Caboclo

[Puffer]

Funny how in the game thread Beebe was hot garbage, and when it comes time to make a trade for an all star he morphs into a "capable backup."

[KHD]

Funny how in the game thread Beebe was hot garbage, and when it comes time to make a trade for an all star he morphs into a "capable backup."

Just like how JV is garbage but also a centerpiece in a trade for Cousins

[Axel]

Funny how in the game thread Beebe was hot garbage, and when it comes time to make a trade for an all star he morphs into a "capable backup."

It's not surprising to see people all over the place.

For me, Bebe has always been an interesting backup C but until he can prove he can play a full season healthy, I'd be very concerned about handing him a starting spot.

[Puffer]

Hey Majesiu, I realize it wasn't you criticizing Beebe, and then talking him up. I meant it in general terms since several others have suggested he would be able to serve as either a trade piece or to fill in if JV went out the door. I thought your post was an interesting read.

[Lupe]

Paul is also a pretty high usage guy. Been around 24-25% the last 4 seasons. Would go down a touch here but I think it'd be even more easy to handle a big who's better defensively but worse offensively than JV as he wouldn't really need or demand any touches. Could run a lot of pick and roll action with Millsap also which would be devastating given his ability to create as the roll man (something 2Pat and JV can't really do).

That's why I actually think it's not a bad idea to move JV in this deal if you can get a mobile, defensive minded center from another team as part of the trade or in a quick follow up, hence the Noel suggestion.

[Majesiu]

Funny how in the game thread Beebe was hot garbage, and when it comes time to make a trade for an all star he morphs into a "capable backup."

No idea why'd you say something like that under my post, where I call BeBe capable backup, I barely even discuss in game threads due to another time-zone, and watching rerun of the games. He has limitations (mainly overhelping, that results in offensive rebounds and bad defensive positioning, too pass happy in the offense, when he can just put ball in the bucket), but you'll have hard time finding better backup at C position, he is active and mobile, blocks and challenges shots at great rate, sets good screens, finishes lobs, but durability still remains a concern, also he is not as young as being 3rd year in the league might suggest (almost 25, same as JV). Also 80% of his minutes played (if you'd adjust to garbage time, even bigger percentage) is with Patterson on the floor, that surely helps with defense overall, but not as much with rebounding, because both of them are below average in that aspect of the game.

[Puffer]

Everything Trade Chatter

No idea why'd you say something like that under my post, where I call BeBe capable backup, I barely even discuss in game threads due to another time

Yeah, I pointed out in my subsequent post it wasn't directed at you, though I did repeat the phrase you used. I should have edited my post after I posted it I guess.