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Everything 2016/17 NBA Draft Thread aka Thank Nation 2.0

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  • lewro
    replied
    3inthekeon wrote: View Post
    Can DeMarre be waived and stretched? I know Kleiza was stretched by Masai in 2013. How often can this be done?
    Someone that has read the new CBA like Dan or Blake would know. Iirc, last I looked at cbafaq (which is outdated now?), we don't have any stretch on the books so we can do it but Demarre would be on our books for like $6-7m over 4 yrs. I think that's a rough outline of the old CBA?

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  • 3inthekeon
    replied
    Can DeMarre be waived and stretched? I know Kleiza was stretched by Masai in 2013. How often can this be done?

    Leave a comment:


  • 3inthekeon
    replied
    lewro wrote: View Post
    So you're poking holes in the stat that looks most favourably on JV!?
    I've had the argument with Dan that WS seems to be outdated. In the meantime Justin Willard at Nylon Calculus also said the same thing in one of his posts..

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  • lewro
    replied
    3inthekeon wrote: View Post
    One thing with Win Shares is it really favours efficient shooting rebounders. That's why it consistently has guys like JV and Enes Kanter as better than guys like Millsap, George, Draymond.
    So you're poking holes in the stat that looks most favourably on JV!?
    I'm gonna pretend I didn't read that
    Nah, he was a top 5 pick for us and he's a very good player but imo something has to give. Maybe Demarre gets moved, maybe Casey gets fired, maybe JV hits 3s/improves D/gets touches, maybe yak gets stronger/D rebounds, maybe Kennedy Meeks is somewhat ready? Lots of options, not just Demarre or bust imo.

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  • 3inthekeon
    replied
    One thing with Win Shares is it really favours efficient shooting rebounders. That's why it consistently has guys like JV and Enes Kanter as better than guys like Millsap, George, Draymond.

    Leave a comment:


  • lewro
    replied
    Rpm, wins, etc is here:

    http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/r...INS/position/9

    BPM, WS, etc is here:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...valanjo01.html

    Anyone that's an insider can search warp (I guess?) but I am not an insider.

    Leave a comment:


  • c-troop
    replied
    lewro wrote: View Post
    Thx, thought it might be a pay wall

    Via ESPN rpm stats Demarre is 4.66 (22nd among SFs) in "wins" vs 4.06 for JV (25th among C's) and bebe is 4.03 (26th).
    On WS and WS/48 JV is like twice as good as Demarre.

    Tbh I don't think we need the stats to tell us that JV is the better player. We're trying to sell his youth and potential vs downplaying Demarres age and injury.
    WARP = (Win% - RL) * (Min/48)

    'Therefore, I adjust replacement level (using the Goal Seek function in Excel) to match the total marginal wins produced by the entire league above 10 wins per game (adjusted for the percentage of the schedule complete during the season). In practice, this generally produces a replacement-level winning percentage of around .415, or 83 percent of league average. This is similar to the 80 percent figure used by Baseball Prospectus and often used by Football Outsiders in other sports.'

    http://www.sonicscentral.com/warp.html

    can you link your stats please.

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  • lewro
    replied
    3inthekeon wrote: View Post
    No idea where that stat is - probably behind a paywall.

    The JV stat is from a Paul George Insider article a few days ago.



    http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/stor...l-george-trade
    Thx, thought it might be a pay wall

    Via ESPN rpm stats Demarre is 4.66 (22nd among SFs) in "wins" vs 4.06 for JV (25th among C's) and bebe is 4.03 (26th).
    On WS and WS/48 JV is like twice as good as Demarre.

    Tbh I don't think we need the stats to tell us that JV is the better player. We're trying to sell his youth and potential vs downplaying Demarres age and injury.

    Leave a comment:


  • 3inthekeon
    replied
    lewro wrote: View Post
    How does Demarre grade in warp? Can you link me how to search that stat plz? Thx.
    No idea where that stat is - probably behind a paywall.

    The JV stat is from a Paul George Insider article a few days ago.

    By the end of a five-year deal, players similar to George saw their value decline nearly by half. For context, 10-plus WARP typically translates into an All-Star appearance. Meanwhile, George's projected production on the back half of his contract would be more typical of an average starter like Jonas Valanciunas (6.9 WARP in 2016-17).
    http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/stor...l-george-trade

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  • lewro
    replied
    3inthekeon wrote: View Post
    lewro, I've never been a JV defender, there still are more than enough of them here, but Dan is right about JV.

    JV was the epitome of a league average player last year (per Pelton's WARP), with one of his biggest skills being rebounding. And unless Ainge wants JV, the only other team that really needs that skill is Toronto. JV is more valuable to us than most any other team.
    The league is not fixed in stone; transactions and injuries will happen and team needs will change by extension.
    Looking at adv stats like rpm, BPM and vorp, Demarre grades out 0 to slight positive whereas Jonas is mostly slight negatives to 0. How does Demarre grade in warp? Can you link me how to search that stat plz? Thx
    I've said so many times I'd rather trade Demarre but I'd want to weigh the asset attached with Demarre vs the asset returned for JV.
    Masai did not deny to JV that he discussed trading him for Drummond, he just said that JV is better. This demonstrates that JV is in play and to dismiss it constitutes willfull blindness imo. Perhaps the return will not be sufficient but we don't know that yet and imo the draft was a great opportunity to dump Demarre and it didn't happen or get mentioned in the media (as JV did). We will see... If I had to get it would be Demarre but I'm not so confident to make that bet.

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  • saints91
    replied
    3inthekeon wrote: View Post
    And unless Ainge wants JV, the only other team that really needs that skill is Toronto. JV is more valuable to us than most any other team.
    I would argue that Dallas may also be a decent landing point for JV, if necessary. I would like to see an offence that actually incorporates JV more. If we are looking for change with the same pieces, the glaring change needs to be using JV more.

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  • 3inthekeon
    replied
    lewro, I've never been a JV defender, there still are more than enough of them here, but Dan is right about JV.

    JV was the epitome of a league average player last year (per Pelton's WARP), with one of his biggest skills being rebounding. And unless Ainge wants JV, the only other team that really needs that skill is Toronto. JV is more valuable to us than most any other team.

    Leave a comment:


  • lewro
    replied
    KHD wrote: View Post
    > an opinion that disagrees = biased.

    > cites william lou as an exemplar of basketball commentary

    lol.
    There's no disagreement if the article is not presented with the subject - that's bias.

    Will is great. Perhaps Zach Lowe's criticism of JV meets your measure? Where can I find your writing?

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  • KHD
    replied
    lewro wrote: View Post
    Yes, it's the option you liked based on your opinion, without presenting the larger context - that's bias. You touch on the other options (incl Pat) but JV is not mentioned and you're "reasoning hasn't changed" even tho he didn't deliver in the playoffs and rumours have increased. It's not realistic.
    Again, it's preferable to trade Demarre, but what are you attaching?
    You think JV is great but has no return value?
    Wherever you fall on this debate, you have to be open to, consider and present all options or it's not an honest critique. I find the critique on this topic to be more honest in other forums. You only have to look at far as the main site to see Blake and will Lou present both angles and an honest evaluation of JV.
    As good as your work is Dan, imo JV is a real blind spot for you. Perhaps that's my bias? Maybe, but I think looking at all angles is closer to an objective truth.
    > an opinion that disagrees = biased.

    > cites william lou as an exemplar of basketball commentary

    lol.

    Leave a comment:


  • lewro
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    Thanks for the traffic. You'll note my reasoning hasn't changed from those comments. I presented Carroll as an option in the article, and left many other options (JV, letting Pat walk, trading other salary pieces) unexplained.

    Every Raptor forum has someone saying no one values JV as highly as that forum.

    JV was definitely always an option, just not an option I liked, nor in my opinion the most beneficial option, hence why I presented the Carroll one as the default. If anyone is overvaluing JV, it's those who expect to be able to move him with a significantly better return (re: cost) than they would need to move Carroll. It's not a friendly market for big men.
    Yes, it's the option you liked based on your opinion, without presenting the larger context - that's bias. You touch on the other options (incl Pat) but JV is not mentioned and you're "reasoning hasn't changed" even tho he didn't deliver in the playoffs and rumours have increased. It's not realistic.
    Again, it's preferable to trade Demarre, but what are you attaching?
    You think JV is great but has no return value?
    Wherever you fall on this debate, you have to be open to, consider and present all options or it's not an honest critique. I find the critique on this topic to be more honest in other forums. You only have to look at far as the main site to see Blake and will Lou present both angles and an honest evaluation of JV.
    As good as your work is Dan, imo JV is a real blind spot for you. Perhaps that's my bias? Maybe, but I think looking at all angles is closer to an objective truth.

    Leave a comment:

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