3inthekeon wrote:
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Everything 2016/17 NBA Draft Thread aka Thank Nation 2.0
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Can DeMarre be waived and stretched? I know Kleiza was stretched by Masai in 2013. How often can this be done?
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lewro wrote: View PostSo you're poking holes in the stat that looks most favourably on JV!?
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3inthekeon wrote: View PostOne thing with Win Shares is it really favours efficient shooting rebounders. That's why it consistently has guys like JV and Enes Kanter as better than guys like Millsap, George, Draymond.
I'm gonna pretend I didn't read that
Nah, he was a top 5 pick for us and he's a very good player but imo something has to give. Maybe Demarre gets moved, maybe Casey gets fired, maybe JV hits 3s/improves D/gets touches, maybe yak gets stronger/D rebounds, maybe Kennedy Meeks is somewhat ready? Lots of options, not just Demarre or bust imo.
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One thing with Win Shares is it really favours efficient shooting rebounders. That's why it consistently has guys like JV and Enes Kanter as better than guys like Millsap, George, Draymond.
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Rpm, wins, etc is here:
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/r...INS/position/9
BPM, WS, etc is here:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...valanjo01.html
Anyone that's an insider can search warp (I guess?) but I am not an insider.
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lewro wrote: View PostThx, thought it might be a pay wall
Via ESPN rpm stats Demarre is 4.66 (22nd among SFs) in "wins" vs 4.06 for JV (25th among C's) and bebe is 4.03 (26th).
On WS and WS/48 JV is like twice as good as Demarre.
Tbh I don't think we need the stats to tell us that JV is the better player. We're trying to sell his youth and potential vs downplaying Demarres age and injury.
'Therefore, I adjust replacement level (using the Goal Seek function in Excel) to match the total marginal wins produced by the entire league above 10 wins per game (adjusted for the percentage of the schedule complete during the season). In practice, this generally produces a replacement-level winning percentage of around .415, or 83 percent of league average. This is similar to the 80 percent figure used by Baseball Prospectus and often used by Football Outsiders in other sports.'
http://www.sonicscentral.com/warp.html
can you link your stats please.
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3inthekeon wrote: View PostNo idea where that stat is - probably behind a paywall.
The JV stat is from a Paul George Insider article a few days ago.
http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/stor...l-george-trade
Via ESPN rpm stats Demarre is 4.66 (22nd among SFs) in "wins" vs 4.06 for JV (25th among C's) and bebe is 4.03 (26th).
On WS and WS/48 JV is like twice as good as Demarre.
Tbh I don't think we need the stats to tell us that JV is the better player. We're trying to sell his youth and potential vs downplaying Demarres age and injury.
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lewro wrote: View PostHow does Demarre grade in warp? Can you link me how to search that stat plz? Thx.
The JV stat is from a Paul George Insider article a few days ago.
By the end of a five-year deal, players similar to George saw their value decline nearly by half. For context, 10-plus WARP typically translates into an All-Star appearance. Meanwhile, George's projected production on the back half of his contract would be more typical of an average starter like Jonas Valanciunas (6.9 WARP in 2016-17).
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3inthekeon wrote: View Postlewro, I've never been a JV defender, there still are more than enough of them here, but Dan is right about JV.
JV was the epitome of a league average player last year (per Pelton's WARP), with one of his biggest skills being rebounding. And unless Ainge wants JV, the only other team that really needs that skill is Toronto. JV is more valuable to us than most any other team.
Looking at adv stats like rpm, BPM and vorp, Demarre grades out 0 to slight positive whereas Jonas is mostly slight negatives to 0. How does Demarre grade in warp? Can you link me how to search that stat plz? Thx
I've said so many times I'd rather trade Demarre but I'd want to weigh the asset attached with Demarre vs the asset returned for JV.
Masai did not deny to JV that he discussed trading him for Drummond, he just said that JV is better. This demonstrates that JV is in play and to dismiss it constitutes willfull blindness imo. Perhaps the return will not be sufficient but we don't know that yet and imo the draft was a great opportunity to dump Demarre and it didn't happen or get mentioned in the media (as JV did). We will see... If I had to get it would be Demarre but I'm not so confident to make that bet.
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3inthekeon wrote: View PostAnd unless Ainge wants JV, the only other team that really needs that skill is Toronto. JV is more valuable to us than most any other team.
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lewro, I've never been a JV defender, there still are more than enough of them here, but Dan is right about JV.
JV was the epitome of a league average player last year (per Pelton's WARP), with one of his biggest skills being rebounding. And unless Ainge wants JV, the only other team that really needs that skill is Toronto. JV is more valuable to us than most any other team.
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KHD wrote: View Post> an opinion that disagrees = biased.
> cites william lou as an exemplar of basketball commentary
lol.
Will is great. Perhaps Zach Lowe's criticism of JV meets your measure? Where can I find your writing?
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lewro wrote: View PostYes, it's the option you liked based on your opinion, without presenting the larger context - that's bias. You touch on the other options (incl Pat) but JV is not mentioned and you're "reasoning hasn't changed" even tho he didn't deliver in the playoffs and rumours have increased. It's not realistic.
Again, it's preferable to trade Demarre, but what are you attaching?
You think JV is great but has no return value?
Wherever you fall on this debate, you have to be open to, consider and present all options or it's not an honest critique. I find the critique on this topic to be more honest in other forums. You only have to look at far as the main site to see Blake and will Lou present both angles and an honest evaluation of JV.
As good as your work is Dan, imo JV is a real blind spot for you. Perhaps that's my bias? Maybe, but I think looking at all angles is closer to an objective truth.
> cites william lou as an exemplar of basketball commentary
lol.
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DanH wrote: View PostThanks for the traffic. You'll note my reasoning hasn't changed from those comments. I presented Carroll as an option in the article, and left many other options (JV, letting Pat walk, trading other salary pieces) unexplained.
Every Raptor forum has someone saying no one values JV as highly as that forum.
JV was definitely always an option, just not an option I liked, nor in my opinion the most beneficial option, hence why I presented the Carroll one as the default. If anyone is overvaluing JV, it's those who expect to be able to move him with a significantly better return (re: cost) than they would need to move Carroll. It's not a friendly market for big men.
Again, it's preferable to trade Demarre, but what are you attaching?
You think JV is great but has no return value?
Wherever you fall on this debate, you have to be open to, consider and present all options or it's not an honest critique. I find the critique on this topic to be more honest in other forums. You only have to look at far as the main site to see Blake and will Lou present both angles and an honest evaluation of JV.
As good as your work is Dan, imo JV is a real blind spot for you. Perhaps that's my bias? Maybe, but I think looking at all angles is closer to an objective truth.
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