How do we fix our defense?

[special1]

Wow, I can't believe the RPM numbers have changed so dramatically. It doesn't even make sense, as the numbers I had for this year from ESPN are now showing up as last year's. And if I had simply misread the year... where did all of "this year's" numbers come from? They don't show anywhere now. I couldn't have imagined all of them, and I didn't misread the column, otherwise the numbers that I transcribed would show up in one of the other columns.

And we didn't play yesterday, and Jakob didn't even play Monday, so why would Jakob's number change over the last 24 hours?

I wonder if I caught them in the middle of some kind of update.

Anyways, I apologize for the misleading info. Thanks to 3inthekeon for the catch.

Fixed comparison of DRPM, last year vs this year
Kyle +1.70 vs +0.40 (regression)
CoJo -0.09 vs -1.93 (regression)
Norm +0.09 vs -0.02
DeMar -2.47 vs -1.53 (improvement)
Carroll +0.96 vs +0.49 (slight regression)
TRoss -1.41 vs -0.08 (improvement)
JJ +0.72
Patman -0.16 vs +0.87 (improvement)
Scola -0.01
Bismack +3.02
Jonas +0.64 vs +0.12 (slight regression)
Lucas +0.18 vs +1.36 (improvement)
Jakob not here last year vs +0.72
Pascal not here last year vs +0.72

Anyways I think the regression of Kyle/Cory and to a lesser extent DeMarre/Jonas is somewhat cancelled out by the improvement of the other playerslike DeMar/TRoss/Patterson and having Pascal replace Scola.

The biggest difference still looks like 1800 minutes of Bismack at +3.02.

Anyways, maybe it's time for me to step away from the numbers, I'm clearly on crazy pills.

Thanks for putting in the work. I still think the difference is Biz....he was a very smart defender and VERY vocal. Just think about it guys.....We don't have to make everything so complicated.

[DanH]

Thanks for putting in the work. I still think the difference is Biz....he was a very smart defender and VERY vocal. Just think about it guys.....We don't have to make everything so complicated.

That would make perfect sense if our starting lineup was doing well but the bench had fallen apart, but that's not true. It's a drop across the board - with the smallest drop seemingly coming from the Biz to BeBe sub (as BeBe's on-court ratings are very good, and very similar to what Biz's were).

[charlesnba23]

But why trade two good wings for one good wing? It's a lateral move at best for them, and they're giving up a pick. I get that people want to get rid of Ross because they don't like him, but... this isn't really a reasonable trade.

They do this because Ross is younger and on a longer contract. And It's not because I don't like Ross, he's been our best player off the bench this year.

It's just that he is not a SF and that this deal would give us more space this summer while bringing something useful back.

[Barolt]

They do this because Ross is younger and on a longer contract. And It's not because I don't like Ross, he's been our best player off the bench this year.

It's just that he is not a SF and that this deal would give us more space this summer while bringing something useful back.

So you trade a young, useful wing on a long-term contract for 2 expiring contract wings who further crowd our wing rotation, making it even harder for Norm to get on the court, in a trade that doesn't make sense for either team?

[charlesnba23]

So you trade a young, useful wing on a long-term contract for 2 expiring contract wings who further crowd our wing rotation, making it even harder for Norm to get on the court, in a trade that doesn't make sense for either team?

Well, if that's the way you see it...

[charlesnba23]

Well, if that's the way you see it...

But yeah, no, I don't agree with you.

[Lupe]

I disagree with almost everything you wrote.

This thread actually has lots of relevant critical discussion, not hate.
The defense is not about lack of desire, but as I showed, the removal of our rim protector.
Letting Lowry walk would be a disaster. I still don't get how Raptors fans can overlook everything he does for this team.
Yes our predictable offense could burn us, but removing Lowry from the equation isn't going to make us less predictable.

If Sullinger is our lifeline, we're fucked. What can he offer outside of gaudy rebounding? He shot an execrable 47.6% TS last year and doesn't protect the rim.

Lack of effort hasn't been the issue. It's more complex than not wanting it bad enough.

Preach. Sullinger is mediocre at best and not going to improve the team much if at all. And getting rid of Lowry is just crazy, would set us back so far.

[KeonClark]

Well, if that's the way you see it...

Actually other than the last half sentence which is Barolts opinion (but likely true) the rest is all factual statements.

[Barolt]

I've been reading posts in this and other threads, and keep coming back to these two things that people argue:

1) The reason Ross and JV aren't more integrated into the offense is because our offense is just fine and we don't need them to do more in order to score effectively.

2) The reason DeMar can't be asked to do more defensively is because he's carrying so much of the offense because it doesn't work without him doing so much.

Is it possible that these two things are linked?

[special1]

That would make perfect sense if our starting lineup was doing well but the bench had fallen apart, but that's not true. It's a drop across the board - with the smallest drop seemingly coming from the Biz to BeBe sub (as BeBe's on-court ratings are very good, and very similar to what Biz's were).

Biz also started 22 games last season.....our record was 15-7 in those starts (68% - Most without a good backup C because JV was injured)

Our overall winning percentage (68%) 56-26

Amazing that the percentage would remain pretty much the same.....and this without our starting C (and thus a good backup C because our good backup C became our starter) and our starting SF....

I guess my point is that Biz was a bigger difference than some would like to admit.

[DanH]

Biz also started 22 games last season.....our record was 15-7 in those starts (68% - Most without a good backup C because JV was injured)

Our overall winning percentage (68%) 56-26

Amazing that the percentage would remain pretty much the same.....and this without our starting C (and thus a good backup C because our good backup C became our starter) and our starting SF....

I guess my point is that Biz was a bigger difference than some would like to admit.

Again, you are spinning off onto another point. I'm making no claims about Biz's overall effectiveness or ability to start.

I am addressing specifically the claim that Biz's leaving is the cause of the defensive issues. When in reality, Biz's direct replacement in the rotation appears to anchor the team's best performing defensive lineups (which is good, as that's what we need in that spot) so the minutes Biz played for most of the year are largely unchanged defensively, and as such his leaving does not explain what has happened to the defence relative to what it was when he was off the court last season.

[jimmie]

Again, you are spinning off onto another point. I'm making no claims about Biz's overall effectiveness or ability to start.

I am addressing specifically the claim that Biz's leaving is the cause of the defensive issues. When in reality, Biz's direct replacement in the rotation appears to anchor the team's best performing defensive lineups (which is good, as that's what we need in that spot) so the minutes Biz played for most of the year are largely unchanged defensively, and as such his leaving does not explain what has happened to the defence relative to what it was when he was off the court last season.

If all you consider are numbers, agreed, it's hard to see a definitive causation. But there are a myriad of ways that a good defensive team can lose one or two players and become a worse defensive team that go beyond the individual statistical impact. Maybe practices were way more competitive, maybe Biz' talking had become infectious last year and now that's been lost, maybe he simply tipped the balance in the lockerroom to a team that actually prided itself on its defense, and this year they're resting on their laurels? All these are possible, and whether you believe it or not, they can impact the numbers that you collect from the games later on.

The loss of Greer could be a major factor for similar reasons that you can't 'measure' but you can consider.

[DanH]

If all you consider are numbers, agreed, it's hard to see a definitive causation. But there are a myriad of ways that a good defensive team can lose one or two players and become a worse defensive team that go beyond the individual statistical impact. Maybe practices were way more competitive, maybe Biz' talking had become infectious last year and now that's been lost, maybe he simply tipped the balance in the lockerroom to a team that actually prided itself on its defense, and this year they're resting on their laurels? All these are possible, and whether you believe it or not, they can impact the numbers that you collect from the games later on.

The loss of Greer could be a major factor for similar reasons that you can't 'measure' but you can consider.

Oh, for sure. It could be anything. But let's just consider that if we are going to focus on the off-court impacts, we have other candidates - maybe Luis Scola? Or Greer. Or Stackhouse! Or maybe there was a water boy change over the summer. Maybe Sullinger is a bad influence, or the rookies are?

At this point, not a single one of us has any idea what goes on in that locker room - we can only evaluate what happens on the floor. Making definitive statements about the team missing Biz purely based on locker room attitude is a bit of a stretch.

[special1]

If all you consider are numbers, agreed, it's hard to see a definitive causation. But there are a myriad of ways that a good defensive team can lose one or two players and become a worse defensive team that go beyond the individual statistical impact. Maybe practices were way more competitive, maybe Biz' talking had become infectious last year and now that's been lost, maybe he simply tipped the balance in the lockerroom to a team that actually prided itself on its defense, and this year they're resting on their laurels? All these are possible, and whether you believe it or not, they can impact the numbers that you collect from the games later on.

The loss of Greer could be a major factor for similar reasons that you can't 'measure' but you can consider.

Thanks for articulating what i obviously wasn't able to. Biz's impact can't be measured just by the numbers......You can see that he LOVED playing defence. He prided himself on it. Maybe the other individual numbers don't show it, but his certainly did (with this team). He communicated very well with the others and they seemed better for it.

[jimmie]

Oh, for sure. It could be anything. But let's just consider that if we are going to focus on the off-court impacts, we have other candidates - maybe Luis Scola? Or Greer. Or Stackhouse! Or maybe there was a water boy change over the summer. Maybe Sullinger is a bad influence, or the rookies are?

At this point, not a single one of us has any idea what goes on in that locker room - we can only evaluate what happens on the floor. Making definitive statements about the team missing Biz purely based on locker room attitude is a bit of a stretch.

Just pointing out that doing the same solely with numbers is equally a stretch. That happens a lot here. It's fine when it's portrayed as conjecture, but when it's used to outright dismiss someone else's equally ill-founded opinion... And that also happens a lot here.

Anyway, I haven't personally advocated for or against any specific changes to the team. I think they're doing OK considering the strength of schedule and losing their starting PF before the season started. But there are troubling signs, and we have no way of knowing yet whether they are symptoms or just short-term issues.

- The defense is not as good as it was last year. Stats and eye test both tell you this.
- The offense is the same one run last year. It's been pretty successful, by and large, moreso than last year I would say (eye test) but individuals are not performing to the level they were last year or that this offense needs them to for success (Pat, Cojo, primarily + Bebe). More 3s falling? Offense looks fine.
- They are relying on really young guys to play significant minutes. Siakam, Poeltl and even Norm are playing more than you would ideally want on a team hoping to win a championship. They've been doing a decent job, but if they were exchanged by 1 or 2 players doing a better-than-decent job, as Sullinger was supposed to be doing, that would help. Pros and cons to this one.
- JV is not playing the increased role we all thought he was going to get this year. This is a big one. He's playing great on O when given the opportunity. Eye test says he can't guard most mobile 5s and he definitely is a poor help defender in a poor perimeter-D team. No need to trade him as long as he's happy in the limited role and I guess we can hope they modify their O to make him a focal point so his D doesn't sit him on the bench so often.

These are all issues that may or may not have to be solved. But your point remains -- none of us has a clue what happens behind the scenes or what Masai may or may not think abut what's happening now vs. where this team is headed, not to mention what all the stats you're looking at actually mean. It would just be nice to see the tenor of the discussion take that into account a bit more.