How do we fix our defense?

[Sinbad]

If that's the case then we shouldn't have signed him. We basically played ourselves, it's similar to when teams pick up ex-Spurs players and expect them to perform the same way on their teams. Was never really a big fan of the signing in the first place, grabbing a system player and expecting them to perform the same way outside of that system is really risky.

Remember how loud the drumbeat was to go get a SF after the Washington series? Masai reacted to that...by overpaying for a system player coming off an injury. It struck me as a classic Colangelo overreaction at the time, and I admit that I was never a fan of the move. But I never expected him to fall off a cliff this quickly.

As for going after ex-Spurs players, I liked the CoJo signing. But we're seeing the effect that coaching or lack thereof can have too. In San Antonio, CoJo was adept and always looking to make the extra pass when he drove. Here? He's encouraged to get all the way to the cup and look for his shot whenever he comes off the screen. He overperformed on defense last season, and he's falling back to earth now.

[DanH]

http://www.raptorshq.com/2016/11/22/...s-rating-wrong

In case anyone is interested, though a portion of it is pretty similar to what's going on in this thread.

[Barolt]

http://www.raptorshq.com/2016/11/22/...s-rating-wrong

In case anyone is interested, though a portion of it is pretty similar to what's going on in this thread.

I read it, and really enjoyed it. Interesting how many of the same conclusions you and I came to seperately.

[KHD]

Remember how loud the drumbeat was to go get a SF after the Washington series? Masai reacted to that...by overpaying for a system player coming off an injury. It struck me as a classic Colangelo overreaction at the time, and I admit that I was never a fan of the move. But I never expected him to fall off a cliff this quickly.

As for going after ex-Spurs players, I liked the CoJo signing. But we're seeing the effect that coaching or lack thereof can have too. In San Antonio, CoJo was adept and always looking to make the extra pass when he drove. Here? He's encouraged to get all the way to the cup and look for his shot whenever he comes off the screen. He overperformed on defense last season, and he's falling back to earth now.

Cory Joseph so far has to be the biggest indictment of Casey's coaching influence. Here you had a guy who played smart basketball, and now he plays like an extra-shitty lou williams. But what more can you expect from a coach who "rides and dies" with Derozan and raved about lou williams in the first place?

[Scraptor]

DeMar doesn't look too different to me this year compared to last year, so I checked his numbers.

DeMar's defensive RPM last year was -1.53. This year it's -1.63. There was also about a -4.9 gap in his on/off DRatg last year, not too different from this year's -5.7. So if he hasn't really changed that much defensively, it's probably something else that's going on.

So... I started going through all the Defensive RPM numbers.

Lucas was +1.36 last year, +1.37 this year.
Poeltl was not here last year, +1.36 this year.
Pascal was not here last year, +1.35 this year.
Patman was +0.87 last year, +0.77 this year.
JJ was +0.72 last year.
Carroll was +0.49 last year, +0.38 this year
Kyle was +0.40 last year, +0.29 this year
Jonas was +0.12 last year, +0.77 this year.
Scola was -0.01 last year.
Norm was -0.02 last year, -0.12 this year.
TRoss was -0.08 last year, -0.30 this year.
Delon was -0.64 last year.
Bruno was -0.89 last year.
Demar was -1.53 last year, -1.63 this year.
CoJo was -1.93 last year, -2.10 this year.

This is weird. No really big changes. Except...

Bismack Biyombo was a +3.02 last year (11th best in the league out of 428 players listed). And he's not here this year. Also note that he played 1800 minutes for us last year, fifth most on the team after Kyle, DeMar, CoJo, and Patman.

So here's my hypothesis.

In 2014-15 we were the 25th-ranked defense with no Bismack.
In 2015-16 we were the 11th-ranked defense with Bismack.
In 2016-17 we are the 24th-ranked defense with no Bismack.

Clearly Bismack is the most significant factor that changed here. He had the ability to erase mistakes from our perimeter guys like DeMar and CoJo that Jonas simply can't.

[KHD]

DeMar doesn't look too different to me this year compared to last year, so I checked his numbers.

DeMar's defensive RPM last year was -1.53. This year it's -1.63. There was also about a -4.9 gap in his on/off DRatg last year, not too different from this year's -5.7. So if he hasn't really changed that much defensively, it's probably something else that's going on.

So... I started going through all the Defensive RPM numbers.

Lucas was +1.36 last year, +1.37 this year.
Poeltl was not here last year, +1.36 this year.
Pascal was not here last year, +1.35 this year.
Patman was +0.87 last year, +0.77 this year.
JJ was +0.72 last year.
Carroll was +0.49 last year, +0.38 this year
Kyle was +0.40 last year, +0.29 this year
Jonas was +0.12 last year, +0.77 this year.
Scola was -0.01 last year.
Norm was -0.02 last year, -0.12 this year.
TRoss was -0.08 last year, -0.30 this year.
Delon was -0.64 last year.
Bruno was -0.89 last year.
Demar was -1.53 last year, -1.63 this year.
CoJo was -1.93 last year, -2.10 this year.

This is weird. No really big changes. Except...

Bismack Biyombo was a +3.02 last year (11th best in the league out of 428 players listed). And he's not here this year. Also note that he played 1800 minutes for us last year, fifth most on the team after Kyle, DeMar, CoJo, and Patman.

So here's my hypothesis.

In 2014-15 we were the 25th-ranked defense with no Bismack.
In 2015-16 we were the 11th-ranked defense with Bismack.
In 2016-17 we are the 24th-ranked defense with no Bismack.

Clearly Bismack is the most significant factor that changed here. He had the ability to erase mistakes from our perimeter guys like DeMar and CoJo that Jonas simply can't.

yeah i don't think anyone is arguing that that is the most evident difference. but are you really OK with requiring a bismack biyombo in order to not have your backcourt be a major liability?

[Lupe]

Remember how loud the drumbeat was to go get a SF after the Washington series? Masai reacted to that...by overpaying for a system player coming off an injury. It struck me as a classic Colangelo overreaction at the time, and I admit that I was never a fan of the move. But I never expected him to fall off a cliff this quickly.

As for going after ex-Spurs players, I liked the CoJo signing. But we're seeing the effect that coaching or lack thereof can have too. In San Antonio, CoJo was adept and always looking to make the extra pass when he drove. Here? He's encouraged to get all the way to the cup and look for his shot whenever he comes off the screen. He overperformed on defense last season, and he's falling back to earth now.

To be fair though I wouldn't really call CoJo a Spurs system player. The ones you have to be worried about from teams like Atlanta and San Antonio are the guys who only have one or two very specific responsibilities on the floor. They generally turn very mediocre when you ask them to do more than those specific things.

[Lupe]

yeah i don't think anyone is arguing that that is the most evident difference. but are you really OK with requiring a bismack biyombo in order to not have your backcourt be a major liability?

But part of building a strong team is bringing in players that fit your system and help cover for deficiencies in other areas. It's not like we're about to replace our backcourt. Sometimes you just need to give the coach the players he needs in order to get his system to work. Look at what Houston's been doing this year with D'Antoni basically having a team tailor made to his play style for example, or even the Lakers with Luke Walton.

[lewro]

The conclusion I keep coming to, that I believe more and more to be true:

Jonas Valanciunas isn't, and probably never will be, a great defender. He's also not really the problem with our defense.

He's not the problem but hes not the solution either and we're stuck with demar. Why do we want an average to poor defensive centre who's strength is offense but hes not used on offense?

[Barolt]

He's not the problem but hes not the solution either and we're stuck with demar. Why do we want an average to poor defensive centre who's strength is offense but hes not used on offense?

Except, by simply starting Patrick Patterson, and making no other changes to our starting lineup, JV becomes servicable defensively. We have a sample size of more than a year demonstrating this.

[Scraptor]

yeah i don't think anyone is arguing that that is the most evident difference. but are you really OK with requiring a bismack biyombo in order to not have your backcourt be a major liability?

What's the alternative? It's wishful thinking (yet again) to think that the backcourt--specifically DeRozan--is going to change.

So to answer the question in the title: we can fix our defense by adding a good rim protector. Which is probably why we were rumored to be interested in Nerlens Noel.

[lewro]

But part of building a strong team is bringing in players that fit your system and help cover for deficiencies in other areas. It's not like we're about to replace our backcourt. Sometimes you just need to give the coach the players he needs in order to get his system to work. Look at what Houston's been doing this year with D'Antoni basically having a team tailor made to his play style for example, or even the Lakers with Luke Walton.

Give this man a prize. Demar is the window. He's in his prime and locked into contract. For better or worse we've hung our hat on demar, Casey, and probably Lowry core

[MixxAOR]

I dont think telling Demar Derozan to try harder on defense is going to do anything. He is who he is. Our hope now is trade or internal development

[Lupe]

Except, by simply starting Patrick Patterson, and making no other changes to our starting lineup, JV becomes servicable defensively. We have a sample size of more than a year demonstrating this.

Not really true. We have a sample size of JV and 2Pat playing 8 or so minutes per game together against primarily bench units and being elite offensively (120 oRTG) and about average relative to the team overall defensively (104 dRTG) - those are last year's regular season numbers btw. So we don't actually know that this would solve our defensive problems, in fact it seems a pretty farfetched idea that it would.

And this year, Patterson-JV has a 108.3 dRTG and Siakam-JV is at 107.6 so again even the lineup stats you've elected to focus on don't agree with that assessment.

[lewro]

What's the alternative? It's wishful thinking (yet again) to think that the backcourt--specifically DeRozan--is going to change.

So to answer the question in the title: we can fix our defense by adding a good rim protector. Which is probably why we were rumored to be interested in Nerlens Noel.

We get a rental window to try noel. If that works we might be able to trade jv for a stretch four. That could create the Dirk/Chandler pairing that Casey used to beat lebron.
If not we can resign noel and try to trade him for someone that could be a defensive stretch four to pair with jv.
Purely hypothetical of course.