How do we fix our defense?

[S.R.]

This thread should have a poll, pull together 4-5 of the most popular options.

[DanH]

Right now our best lineup that plays a lot of minutes every game is our starters with Siakam swapped out for 2Pat so Lowry-DeMar-Carroll-2Pat-Valanciunas. +33.4 netRTG, 3 points higher than the Lowry+Bench unit.

However when you swap out JV for Bebe and Carroll for Powell you get a +69.9 netRTG.

Also our starters with JV replaced for Bebe (Lowry-DD-Carroll-Siakam-Bebe) have a +41.8 netRTG.

Pretty hard to say those latter two units aren't "playing against starters", and they have the highest netRTGs of our 11 most used lineups. Small sample size at this point in the season though.

All those lineups are super small samples. Which is what I was saying upthread - the only argument that BeBe has proven he can start relies on ridiculously small samples, while with Pat we have two seasons of significant minutes playing against opposing starters and all variety of opposing teams. Those lineups you quote, neither has played over 25 minutes or in more than 6 games, meaning not only is the sample completely unreliable due to size, but also due to lack of variance in competition. Large samples put players against all varieties of matchups, including tough matchups. Put those BeBe starting lineups into this game against Howard and the overall numbers for them would level out quick.

The fact they've been used so little is also commentary on what Casey thinks - he clearly recognizes he is better off with Pat than Siakam (same for Scola last year) which is why Pat gets such a huge sample of minutes with the starters even when he doesn't start. Can't say the same for BeBe - even Casey recognizes that he's better off playing JV against starters, so he doesn't give BeBe many minutes with the starting or closing lineups, unless he's riding the bench with a lead.

[DanH]

You make it seem like he is just playing decent. The guy was leading the league in Net rating and leading the team Def rating. So far his short sample size shows his the best back up Center in the league.

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Yeah, and it is great to have the best backup C in the league. It doesn't mean he should start though.

[lewro]

Right now our best lineup that plays a lot of minutes every game is our starters with Siakam swapped out for 2Pat so Lowry-DeMar-Carroll-2Pat-Valanciunas. +33.4 netRTG, 3 points higher than the Lowry+Bench unit.

However when you swap out JV for Bebe and Carroll for Powell you get a +69.9 netRTG.

Also our starters with JV replaced for Bebe (Lowry-DD-Carroll-Siakam-Bebe) have a +41.8 netRTG.

Pretty hard to say those latter two units aren't "playing against starters", and they have the highest netRTGs of our 11 most used lineups. Small sample size at this point in the season though.

Very small sample for lineup #2.
Everybody wants norm and Pat to start (I think?). That kinda makes siakam and Carroll scola starters.
Which questions to a degree the merit of a starter and matchups. Most of the time the starters are the best players but we have a great bench and they are playing meaningful minutes vs our opponents. Our team has played 1200 mins and 250 mins of that belong to the starters as a unit. Somewhere in those 1000 mins I gotta assume that our backups have played vs the top players in the sport and succeeded. I think it's reductive to blame all the problems of the starters on siakam or reduce the accomplishments of our backups to inferior competition. Some of that is happening and some of it is problems with all of our players and our system. Some of it is just other teams are better or better that night.

That said, I blame jv 😉

[lewro]

If I say DD sucks on D it seems the response is that he needs to try harder. If I saw the same thing about jv then it seems some of the response is that it's siakams fault, pat needs to start, the scheme is wrong, etc.
Yes, adjustments can be made but they both suck on D. Jv is the anchor. Demar has some physical potential to be better. I'm not sure jv does outside of certain matchups and I'm not sure either jv or demar have the bball IQ to improve reads/positioning.
I'm more interested to find solutions of how to improve the team than I am in favouring an individual on the team or winning an argument.
When I posted video breakdown of noel, it includes highlights and lowlights. I'm very skeptical that a deal gets done for good reason but I'm also desperate to improve our team. IMO we need more talent/improve fit and it's very hard to acquire.

[lewro]

It is very possible that if BeBe was a starting quality C, he might fit better with the way Lowry/DD play. Sadly, he is not, so it is irrelevant.

Noel is that player. Better BPM and vorp than jv when comparing them as 20 yr old rookies and noel played with dleague talent. Jvs highest dbpm (more than double his second best stat) was in that same rookie yr. 2014/15 Jv had a career low dbpm of -.6, bpm -.5, vorp .8. noel dbpm 4.5, BPM .8, vorp 1.6. same mins/gm, same division, 2 yrs younger, rookie.
In the past 5 yrs the league has only gotten faster and produces more and more mismatches for jv as a younger and different breed of player enters the league. Young players like kanter, vuc and nurkic are finding diminishing roles.
Personally I'd rather get out in front of this ASAP.

[lewro]

If fit is the concern, we are discussing the wrong position. JV fits fine (read: great) with the stars so long as you have a floor stretching PF on the floor.

How many people have complained that jv needs touches or to start pat to hide our on center on defense? Fits fine, OK. Great? Highly debatable (read: debated for years).

[lewro]

And if he does miss more games, I agree that BeBe's average will go up. But he won't be taking minutes from JV on any consistent basis.

Absolutism. You don't know this.

[lewro]

You don't think Biz getting starter's minutes while JV was out had something to do with his higher minutes averages?

Just look at the playoffs in the first 10 games before JV was hurt. Biz averaged 17.5 MPG.

When we talk about quality of opponent let's remember that Turner was a 20 yr old rookie and Whiteside was on broken legs and a matchup that jv can handle.
Jv also got hurt and we needed to biz. If we face Drummond or Dwight we will need jv but Tristan/love/Frye or horford is a different look for jv.
Also our guards struggled on offense. No guarantee jv gets the ball if they play our current offense. We need jv to anchor the D regardless. Pat and Bebe are the anchor ATM.

[lewro]

BeBe has literally only played in 4 games in the clutch this year. Valanciunas has played in 10.

When he's closing out games, it's because we have a big lead. So, yes, we do win more often when we have huge leads in the 4th. Shocker.

Let's monitor this. Casey is slow to adjust to an extent. Did scola close games at the start of last yr?
Bebe has played until the 4-6 mark and Pat has closed. Let's make sure the game is within single digits before we call it clutch.
The fact that jv doesn't close every game as our #3 player and most important defender in favour of a dleague call up is already alarming for a supposed contender.

[lewro]

Again, if we can convince the opposition to play their bench players 4 more minutes a game too, that logic holds up.

Whose the bench player between Henson and Monroe? Who's the better offensive player? Bebe guarded Monroe. Jv ate ball.

We need jv to guard our direct rivals like horford and Tristan. He struggles. At the very least we need him to matchup vs a big like Dwight. He struggles vs guards like kemba and Kyrie. Or perimter bigs like love, Frye, Millsap, etc.
We don't even use jvs offensive to punish these matchups.

[Lupe]

If he played against starters, which he doesn't, sure.

Right now our best lineup that plays a lot of minutes every game is our starters with Siakam swapped out for 2Pat so Lowry-DeMar-Carroll-2Pat-Valanciunas. +33.4 netRTG, 3 points higher than the Lowry+Bench unit.

However when you swap out JV for Bebe and Carroll for Powell you get a +69.9 netRTG.

Also our starters with JV replaced for Bebe (Lowry-DD-Carroll-Siakam-Bebe) have a +41.8 netRTG.

Pretty hard to say those latter two units aren't "playing against starters", and they have the highest netRTGs of our 11 most used lineups. Small sample size at this point in the season though.

[Chr1s1anL]

If he played against starters, which he doesn't, sure.

You make it seem like he is just playing decent. The guy was leading the league in Net rating and leading the team Def rating. So far his short sample size shows his the best back up Center in the league.

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[DanH]

So if Bebe keeps putting up these stats for the whole year. Would he be considered a starter in your eyes like 2pat?

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If he played against starters, which he doesn't, sure.

[Chr1s1anL]

Yeah, except Pat has a season and a half of time with closing lineups against the opposition's best players in clutch game winning situations that suggests he would kill as a starter, and he has a raw rookie who doesn't fit with the starters in front of him, while Nogueira has basically zero data on him against non-backup opposition and has an established starting C in front of him.

Yeah, that's totally the same thing.

So if Bebe keeps putting up these stats for the whole year. Would he be considered a starter in your eyes like 2pat?

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