How do we fix our defense?

[DanH]

Maybe putting blind faith in DBPM is a bad idea.

Yep! Impact stats should be one tool among many, and even after using every half-reliable defensive metric you should be hesitant to make too strong a case.

The points further up are also true - impact stats measure the impact a player had, in their role, in their system, with their team. They are very often not translatable outside of any of those conditions. The context effect is huge with those stats, which is why the base stat for them (RAPM) uses at minimum a two season sample size to drown out the noise.

It's very difficult to state anything with confidence based on one or two defensive stats, no matter what stats you use.

[Lupe]

I'd say generally it's just very hard to measure defense statistically anyway. It's probably the main thing that advanced statisticians are trying to make headway on (although there's been a lot of work recently on trying to quantify team chemistry and such). Which is why they shouldn't be the sole crux of the argument of a player's defensive capabilities. Sometimes it does make sense to look at a player's skills, potential and physical attributes and how that might fit into your team's system when making an evaluation of their defensive impact on your team.

Which is why I think someone like Noel would make sense. Not even talking about getting rid of JV but as a replacement for Biyombo with upside, who we have control over contractually and could POTENTIALLY free up the possibility to package JV for a star at the PF position if that opportunity arises.

[lewro]

Bullshit. Last year is done and over with, Cavs won't win any titles based on last year's legacy.

Kyrie flashes his ring

[lewro]

Maybe putting blind faith in DBPM is a bad idea.

Agreed.

[Axel]

Kyrie flashes his ring

He can flash his ring all he wants. Curry's ring from the year before didn't help him last year in the Finals did it? If you want to stay champs, you need to bring it all over again. I question Irving and Love in that regard. Good team no doubt, but not unbeatable if we play to the best of our abilities.

[lewro]

Yep! Impact stats should be one tool among many, and even after using every half-reliable defensive metric you should be hesitant to make too strong a case.

The points further up are also true - impact stats measure the impact a player had, in their role, in their system, with their team. They are very often not translatable outside of any of those conditions. The context effect is huge with those stats, which is why the base stat for them (RAPM) uses at minimum a two season sample size to drown out the noise.

It's very difficult to state anything with confidence based on one or two defensive stats, no matter what stats you use.

Lol, dude you are the king of stats here. You used one defensive stat (drpm) as the basis for your entire argument yesterday. Not a day goes by that I don't see you dismiss someone else's argument based on stats.
We all love our team, we all have valid opinions, right or wrong, including you. Remember that plz

[DanH]

Lol, dude you are the king of stats here. You used one defensive stat (drpm) as the basis for your entire argument yesterday. Not a day goes by that I don't see you dismiss someone else's argument based on stats.
We all love our team, we all have valid opinions, right or wrong, including you. Remember that plz

No, several people were listing the team's DRPM numbers from last year and coming to the conclusion that missing Biz was the main difference. I extended that logic to showing DRPM numbers for other players (who rated similarly to Biz) to show that it really doesn't make much sense to use that data alone, as it would lead to a list of guys who really would not improve the defence in all likelihood, with a few obvious star exceptions.

[Axel]

No, several people were listing the team's DRPM numbers from last year and coming to the conclusion that missing Biz was the main difference. I extended that logic to showing DRPM numbers for other players (who rated similarly to Biz) to show that it really doesn't make much sense to use that data alone, as it would lead to a list of guys who really would not improve the defence in all likelihood, with a few obvious star exceptions.

I think the problem that some are trying to come to accept is that no one player or position is the cause of our defensive problems. People want an easy solution and Biyombo leaving and JVs play are the perfect scapegoats, and some are determined to go down that rabbit hole no matter what.

The defensive issues are across the board and may include the very system. No easy fix to be found.

[3inthekeon]

Yep! Impact stats should be one tool among many, and even after using every half-reliable defensive metric you should be hesitant to make too strong a case.

The points further up are also true - impact stats measure the impact a player had, in their role, in their system, with their team. They are very often not translatable outside of any of those conditions. The context effect is huge with those stats, which is why the base stat for them (RAPM) uses at minimum a two season sample size to drown out the noise.

It's very difficult to state anything with confidence based on one or two defensive stats, no matter what stats you use.

You are right, Dan. But at the same time Gasol may actually be a good defender, despite his age. Being able to see plays develop and anticipating where to be is a huge part of the defensive aspect of the centre position. That why those who have that, Timmy D, being maybe the best in our time, are still strong defenders long after their athleticism is gone.

[jimmie]

I think the problem that some are trying to come to accept is that no one player or position is the cause of our defensive problems. People want an easy solution and Biyombo leaving and JVs play are the perfect scapegoats, and some are determined to go down that rabbit hole no matter what.

The defensive issues are across the board and may include the very system. No easy fix to be found.

No, that's not what 'some' are doing.

Some are accepting that there ARE defensive problems that should be solved, and recognize the reality of the situation is that the perimeter issues are highly unlikely to solve themselves or be solved through roster changes. In other words, we know Demar has a hard time keeping people in front of him, that Lowry gambles too much, that Carroll is a shell of his former self, that Ross' consistency on D waxes and wanes, that Norm is still a 2nd-year player. Demar and Lowry are highly unlikely to be traded, so some are looking elsewhere for possible, more 'possible' solutions. We all accept that there are no easy solutions to the problem, and certainly no easy answers as to why it's happening.

'Others' seem more inclined to stay the course under the assumption that the D will improve organically. Not unreasonable given it's almost the same lineup as last year and they were quite good on that end last year.

The ONLY reason Biz is brought up at all is to suggest that his skillset is one of the few differences from last year, and so it's not unreasonable to imagine a return to last year's defensive production if you could replicate that skillset. It's not about "proving" that the loss of Biz was the definitive reason the D is worse. It's about believing that, if Lowry and Demar remain the focal point of the team and are not going anywhere, you need to shore up the areas where they are weak. Blow-by are going to happen regularly with this backcourt; the only question is will JV or someone else be there to consistently clean up the mess. Would love to see JV be able to do this. Don't believe that will ever be in his wheelhouse, unfortunately. Would love to see JV stay, and to acquire a better defensive C to help? Absolutely.

It's quite a different argument than the one you seem to think 'some' are making. Your point seems to suggest that those suggesting potential changes are being silly, that since we can't point definitively to why the D is worse, it's a waste of time to consider how to fix it.

[slaw]

There is more emphasis than ever on rotating to the next cover this season without the shot-blocking, rim-protecting presence of Bismack Biyombo waiting back there to clean things up.

“One hundred per cent,” Joseph said, “because Bismack used to challenge everything at the rim so it was a little easier on the rotations. Now you got to be there a little earlier because you know you don’t have Biz to protect the rim like you had before. Lucas (Nogueira) and Jonas (Valanciunas) over the last couple of games they started to do a better job too.”

http://www.torontosun.com/2016/11/24...g-a-lot-easier

[DanH]

You are right, Dan. But at the same time Gasol may actually be a good defender, despite his age. Being able to see plays develop and anticipating where to be is a huge part of the defensive aspect of the centre position. That why those who have that, Timmy D, being maybe the best in our time, are still strong defenders long after their athleticism is gone.

I agree 100% that Gasol could still be a very good defender. I actually argued for the Raps to sign him to a short deal this summer, as a small minutes PF stop gap and backup C because I believed he could be. It's one of the biggest reasons I don't worry so much about JV's defence - big men age very nicely on the defensive end, as so much of their responsibilities defensively come down to knowing where to be, anticipating plays, and communicating, relative to guards (for whom those things are important but are much more reliant on athleticism as well).

[slaw]

Didn't Kyrie look amazing vs gsw in the finals!? He's not a big game player? What game is bigger!? Demar and Kyle haven't looked big game in many of our series. They got swept twice. I still think they can be big game players. You don't Kyrie is that?
The cavs look even better this yr.

Probably important to note that Irving has only been to the playoffs twice. He was actually pretty good two seasons ago until he got banged up in that Chicago series and he was playing a tremendous Game 1 in the Finals until he blew the wheel out. Last season, he outplayed Curry over the last 3 games of the Finals. Given that he's only played like 30 playoff games, his track record is pretty impressive - the aggregate numbers look good but he's only really had a few bad individual games, which largely coincided with his injuries against CHI 2 seasons ago. Irving tends to get somewhat overrated in many quarters but I think he actually gets undersold Raptorland....

[Axel]

No, that's not what 'some' are doing.

Some are accepting that there ARE defensive problems that should be solved, and recognize the reality of the situation is that the perimeter issues are highly unlikely to solve themselves or be solved through roster changes. In other words, we know Demar has a hard time keeping people in front of him, that Lowry gambles too much, that Carroll is a shell of his former self, that Ross' consistency on D waxes and wanes, that Norm is still a 2nd-year player. Demar and Lowry are highly unlikely to be traded, so some are looking elsewhere for possible, more 'possible' solutions. We all accept that there are no easy solutions to the problem, and certainly no easy answers as to why it's happening.

'Others' seem more inclined to stay the course under the assumption that the D will improve organically. Not unreasonable given it's almost the same lineup as last year and they were quite good on that end last year.

The ONLY reason Biz is brought up at all is to suggest that his skillset is one of the few differences from last year, and so it's not unreasonable to imagine a return to last year's defensive production if you could replicate that skillset. It's not about "proving" that the loss of Biz was the definitive reason the D is worse. It's about believing that, if Lowry and Demar remain the focal point of the team and are not going anywhere, you need to shore up the areas where they are weak. Blow-by are going to happen regularly with this backcourt; the only question is will JV or someone else be there to consistently clean up the mess. Would love to see JV be able to do this. Don't believe that will ever be in his wheelhouse, unfortunately. Would love to see JV stay, and to acquire a better defensive C to help? Absolutely.

It's quite a different argument than the one you seem to think 'some' are making. Your point seems to suggest that those suggesting potential changes are being silly, that since we can't point definitively to why the D is worse, it's a waste of time to consider how to fix it.

So 90% of the roster is unfixable and it's only the C position that can be remedied by a trade? I find that hard to believe but that is what it appears to be based on the trade talks I've seen.

My point is that the problems are much more layered and complex than the solutions being presented seem to address.

[Axel]

You are right, Dan. But at the same time Gasol may actually be a good defender, despite his age. Being able to see plays develop and anticipating where to be is a huge part of the defensive aspect of the centre position. That why those who have that, Timmy D, being maybe the best in our time, are still strong defenders long after their athleticism is gone.

Gasol is good but part of that is the role he is being asked to play. He isn't anchoring any defence like Chandler did in Dallas and Gasol has spent the last two seasons with Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard guarding the opposing team's best player. So regardless of how well Gasol has performed, it doesn't seem overly like a solution to our problem unless the solution is changing the defensive scheme and adding a defensive stud on the perimeter.