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Is the Raptors' ball movement really better?

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  • Is the Raptors' ball movement really better?

    The Raptors primarily have an offense built around two guards using the dribble drive and pick and roll to create scoring opportunities for teammates and themselves. Many in the media and our fans have argued that the team needs to move to being more of a ball movement, team oriented style offense like Atlanta or the Spurs of last season in order to be consistent and effective on that side of the ball.

    However this year, we have actually passed the ball less. A lot less. We're averaging 259.1 passes made per game over the last 10 (30th in the NBA) and 272.2 (2nd last in the NBA with OKC just behind us) on the season. So we're actually passing the ball less during this current insane run offensively. Last year we actually made way more passes per game with 305.4 which was right in the middle of the pack at 15th.

    We're also near the bottom of the league in assists per game on the season, however in the last 10 games we're up to 13th with 22.6 assists per game (despite the team overall passing the ball significantly less times per game).

    We aren't making quicker decisions with the ball either. We actually hold the ball more than any other team in the league with our guys averaging 3.00 seconds per touch and 2.53 dribbles per touch which actually lead the NBA.

    I think there's a false narrative that we're suddenly moving the ball more or better. The numbers don't support it. It seems like the primary reason for the improved offense is better finishing and shooting on passes (we lead the NBA in points per touch at 0.284). We have not become some expert ball movement team, everything is still being created primarily by DeRozan, Lowry and CoJo to a lesser extent, however on the receiving end players are knocking down their shots at a higher rate.

    This is again supported simply by looking at the shooting percentages of our guys. Lowry, Ross and Powell are all shooting 44% from the arc on the season. Carroll, CoJo and 2Pat struggled early but are shooting 43%, 47% and 49% from the arc in the last 10 games as well as 50%, 50% and 45% from the field.

    Guys are knocking down shots at a higher clip leading to each touch and offensive possession being more efficient despite more or less the same style of play. It's an observation bias, some of us see Lowry pass to DeMar then DeMar take his man one on one and find 2Pat in the corner, he makes the 3 and we think "good ball movement". Well no, really that's just what we've always been doing just that the shots are going in at a crazy high clip right now.

    This is one of the reasons I'm really concerned by our now 22nd ranked defense because I don't think our guys can maintain these percentages in the playoffs. And when that happens our offense will fall off from the historic perch it's at right now and become much more containable.

    EDIT: I think some people misunderstood my intention/message here. I'm not advocating for a change in our play style offensively. I'm actually saying it's fine but it's not this ultra ball-movement style that people think it is. It's simply that what we've been doing for the past 3 years now (playing through DeMar and Lowry) is working even better than it has in the past. The improved offense is not a result of more ball movement, in fact there's actually been less just the quality has increased because guys are playing and shooting better.
    Last edited by Lupe; Fri Dec 9, 2016, 01:32 PM.

  • #2
    Legit concerns, methinks.

    We're primarily a jump-shooting team. And our percentages are guaranteed to drop in the playoffs (thanks to deeper scouting, and an uptick in defensive intensity).

    If only we had an inside presence to dump the ball into when our offense stagnates....

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    • #3
      That 22nd defense is the real issue.

      Sent from my LG-H831 using Tapatalk
      @Chr1st1anL

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      • #4
        If teams are better able to guard Lowry and Demar straight up, our offence will struggle. Nothing has changed there outside of the fact that both Lowry and Demar look more difficult to guard straight up. PnR play with drive and kick is how we bend the D to get guys open shots. We still do some ISO, but PnR play is by and large what the offence rolls with. I don't think this is big deal. Every team in the league is faced with the same issue. IF their best players can be effectively guarded straight up, they will struggle. You can alleviate this issue by having more options (i.e. players) that can initiate the offence, and even then you're primary options have to be good off the ball options. Carroll can't initiate the O, neither can Patterson, Siakim, or Bebe. Cory has limitations, but the improving PnR jump shot should open things up for him, hopefully that continues. Ross isn't bad but isn't great, and neither is Powell who isn't getting consistent minutes to improve anyways. And even if they were better, Demar isn't a good spacer, neither is Siakim or Cory. The only players that really space the floor for this team are Lowry, Carroll, Ross and Patterson.

        JV, we all know, is an underused option in the O, but despite his capability in the post, it's difficult to say whether that can be leveraged into producing quality shots for teammates.

        For this team as is, I'm not sure the number of passes is at all important, but the quality of passes. And with what I've seen from Lowry and Demar, I think they have both improved significantly in that area. Subsequently, the quality of shot that the role players are taking is probably a little better than in previous seasons. More lobs for Bebe and full court passes to Siakim, more dumpoffs to guys in the paint from Demar etc. I'm not really sure if the quality of the 3's taken are much better than before but the percentages are great like the OP said. Maybe just a hot streak. But consider, how often do the Raptors swing the ball around the perimeter to get an open shot? It doesn't seem to happen alot, and it doesn't seem to need to happen alot. One or two passes after the PnR action is usually enough to get that shot off. Other than that, it's kick it back out to the ball handler and reset the action.

        Compare that to CLE. LBJ drives off a screen or gets it in the post. The D collapses, and he kicks it out for a 3 or the ball swings until a shooter has space to shoot. And if it isn't that it's PnR play with Kyrie and Love/Frye/Thompson or Love in the post. Point being, the initiation of the O isn't significantly different than ours, it's just they can get more options out of the initial action and have more players that can make 3's. That in turn results in more opportunity to move the ball due to scrambling defences.

        Even in a situation where our offence slows down, we should be more concerned with our D as it would allow us a greater ability to weather that storm. And when Sully returns and if he plays well, he could open things up a little more and give us another guy that can make a play.

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        • #5
          I dunno what the numbers say or frankly, care. The ball movement has improved a ton; primarily because of the passes the two lead guards have been making.

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          • #6
            the emphasis on ball movement (and subsequently, assists) is getting over the top. ball movement does not equal more wins or points.

            WHEN you pass and WHO you pass it to is way more important.

            who gives a shit how many passes per game a team makes?

            the sixers, knicks, nets and kings are all in the top 10 in making the most passes per game. even the 4-17 dallas mavericks throw the ball around more than the raptors. whoop dee do.

            all of these teams beat out the warriors in passes made as well. this tells you absolutely nothing.

            the percentage of passes that TURN INTO assists is more interesting to me. last year, raptors were 3rd last. this year, we're currently in the top 10. that to me, DOES say they're moving the ball better. its not just randomly dumping it to other players when you're in trouble.

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            • #7
              For the second straight season the Raptors are definitely better than the Hawks, who have never even won a postseason game against Lebron's Cavs. I don't care about the aesthetics nearly as much at this point. The Raptors are proving to be more and more effective each year with the offense they are running.

              Lowry and DeRozan's awful shooting last postseason was mostly an issue of their heads and, in Lowry's case, a nagging injury (imho). The defense makes it harder but the defense makes any offense harder in the playoffs. The beautiful ball movement the Spurs unleashed on the Cavs in the Finals was a couple years ago, last year Cleveland beat GSW's ball movement offense by doing what Cleveland does best. The Raptors need to do the same.

              Another huge positive from last spring was Casey + the Raptors actually proved willing to go to JV more when he was working and the perimeter play wasn't. I'd expect they make that shift even more readily moving forward if a series calls for it.

              The defense is more of a concern, but ultimately this team will peak in the postseason as far as their talent takes them. GSW, Cavs, Spurs, Clippers just have more high calibre players than the Raptors do. NBA Championships are won with talent.
              "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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              • #8
                The problem is that the Raptors rely on two things to generate their offense:
                1. Lowry & DeRozan creating offense for themselves
                2. Role players hitting 3pt shots (ie: Carroll, Patterson, Ross, etc...)

                If the shooting goes cold and/or the Raptors run into a defensive player/scheme that can shut/slow down Lowry and DeRozan (mainly DeRozan), the Raptors are in trouble.

                Yes, the defense has become an issue again this year. However, no defense will help when the offense stagnates badly, especially when your two offensive weapons are average-at-best defenders. When those two players are asked to play extremely heavy minutes and fight even harder at the offensive end, it only makes their defense suffer.

                This has been the same problem for the last 3+ years under Casey. The team has great success in the regular season, so they don't bother trying to consistently establish secondary scoring options. Then, when the team goes deep into the playoffs and meets a formidable defensive team that is capable of shutting down their primary scorers, they either play right into the defense (ie: double-down on the primary scorers) or try to figure out a secondary scoring option on the fly (ie: JV against the Pacers last season).

                It shouldn't be a surprise that this isn't a recipe for success. Back-to-back 1st round flameouts, which would have been followed by a third 1st round flameout, if not for JV.

                I will say that DeRozan has become much more consistent this season in both his willingness and ability to facilitate. However, that seems more out of urgency than by play-calling, so we'll have to wait and see how that plays out come playoff time. The fact remains that the regular season is when Casey should be figuring out solid secondary scoring options, whether it's an inside game with JV, or designed plays for cutters like Carroll/Ross/Powell, etc...

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                • #9
                  Does better ball movement equate to a better offence? The two teams you mentioned..Hawks and Spurs are at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to playoff success regardless of ball movement. I'm in the camp that feels we need to fix our defence and our offence is more or less just fine as is.

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                  • #10
                    Yes, the defense has become an issue again this year. However, no defense will help when the offense stagnates badly, especially when your two offensive weapons are average-at-best defenders. When those two players are asked to play extremely heavy minutes and fight even harder at the offensive end, it only makes their defense suffer.
                    We are not even a calendar year removed from the Raps defense carrying them to the ECF despite historically poor shooting from the team's 2 best players and this is the lesson that we apparently learned from that.

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                    • #11
                      iblastoff wrote: View Post
                      the emphasis on ball movement (and subsequently, assists) is getting over the top. ball movement does not equal more wins or points.

                      WHEN you pass and WHO you pass it to is way more important.

                      who gives a shit how many passes per game a team makes?

                      the sixers, knicks, nets and kings are all in the top 10 in making the most passes per game. even the 4-17 dallas mavericks throw the ball around more than the raptors. whoop dee do.

                      all of these teams beat out the warriors in passes made as well. this tells you absolutely nothing.

                      the percentage of passes that TURN INTO assists is more interesting to me. last year, raptors were 3rd last. this year, we're currently in the top 10. that to me, DOES say they're moving the ball better. its not just randomly dumping it to other players when you're in trouble.
                      No but this is exactly the point I'm making. I'm trying to show that this emphasis on passing more, swinging the ball side to side does not actually make your offense better. Houston is also near the bottom in assists and passes like us because they run almost everything through Harden (like we do with DD and Kyle) yet they also rank in the top 5 offenses. What I'm trying to say is there are multiple ways to be effective offensively. I know that Raptor fans have clamored for a movement away from Lowry/DD (particularly the latter) pick and rolls and isos to an inside-out system where we share the ball more like Atlanta but that isn't necessarily better (in fact for our team it would be much worse).

                      Right now the Raptors are playing at a historic level offensively running the offense primarily through the penetration, scoring and playmaking ability of two guys. What has also helped of late is everyone knocking down their shots at a very high clip.

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                      • #12
                        Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
                        That 22nd defense is the real issue.

                        Sent from my LG-H831 using Tapatalk
                        True, but you fix what you can. From the looks of things, defense isn't getting any better without a trade.

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                        • #13
                          CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                          The problem is that the Raptors rely on two things to generate their offense:
                          1. Lowry & DeRozan creating offense for themselves
                          2. Role players hitting 3pt shots (ie: Carroll, Patterson, Ross, etc...)


                          If the shooting goes cold and/or the Raptors run into a defensive player/scheme that can shut/slow down Lowry and DeRozan (mainly DeRozan), the Raptors are in trouble.

                          Yes, the defense has become an issue again this year. However, no defense will help when the offense stagnates badly, especially when your two offensive weapons are average-at-best defenders. When those two players are asked to play extremely heavy minutes and fight even harder at the offensive end, it only makes their defense suffer.

                          This has been the same problem for the last 3+ years under Casey. The team has great success in the regular season, so they don't bother trying to consistently establish secondary scoring options. Then, when the team goes deep into the playoffs and meets a formidable defensive team that is capable of shutting down their primary scorers, they either play right into the defense (ie: double-down on the primary scorers) or try to figure out a secondary scoring option on the fly (ie: JV against the Pacers last season).

                          It shouldn't be a surprise that this isn't a recipe for success. Back-to-back 1st round flameouts, which would have been followed by a third 1st round flameout, if not for JV.

                          I will say that DeRozan has become much more consistent this season in both his willingness and ability to facilitate. However, that seems more out of urgency than by play-calling, so we'll have to wait and see how that plays out come playoff time. The fact remains that the regular season is when Casey should be figuring out solid secondary scoring options, whether it's an inside game with JV, or designed plays for cutters like Carroll/Ross/Powell, etc...
                          Neither of those two things are a problem.

                          And defense does help when the offense stagnates. I'm not sure about that point there because there are teams who are terrible offensively who make up for it by playing elite defense and making the other team equally or more terrible offensively.

                          What do you mean by establishing secondary scoring options? The best way to get our secondary guys involved is to allow Demar and Lowry to create for them like we've been doing. If those guys make their shots and finish and DeMar/Klow come to play the offense is not going to be an issue.
                          Last edited by Lupe; Fri Dec 9, 2016, 01:37 PM.

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                          • #14
                            A.I wrote: View Post
                            True, but you fix what you can. From the looks of things, defense isn't getting any better without a trade.
                            Which I think is why the trade chatter and how to fix our defense threads have been quite active. We can't rest on our laurels imo. The offense is at a title winning level if we can bring it into the playoffs, the defense is not. And given we're going to have to do something about LeBron, Kyrie and Love (who is looking like T'Wolves Love again) to get to the finals, we have to make an improvement on that end.

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                            • #15
                              Lupe wrote: View Post
                              Neither of those two things are a problem.
                              the problem is they have no other looks.

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