Everything 2017 Off-Season

[blackjitsu]

You're blowing it out of proportion. Is it that white board that horrifies you, that's it not an xcel spreadsheet? How do you know which step of their planning this list falls under? Lists are made every day for a myriad of reasons. Yes probably not good optics to have an agent tweet it wth his guy sitting in front of it, but "masai and those guys" have a documentary on national tv called open gym where they reveal a lot more than this list did.

I'm not blowing anything out of proportion. Same reason why in poker you don't show your hand. It might appear to not mean anything, but better players will be able to figure out your tells. But whatever, dude won't make it past the season. Only a fool would keep him on long enough to pick a draft pick. This is the guy who kept on the worst coach in the NBA for years and only fired him when his neck was on the line. Dude's a clown. Look how he handled last off-season.

Like I said, small things like this are examples of his lack of due diligence. It's a small symptom of a culture of incompetence. If you want to defend him, go ahead.

Also, Excel sheets? This is what REAL Teams use



Does any of this look like a White board?

You can create a list, with scouting reports, and video in one place. And when it's time for a photo op you can minimize everything.

Xcel sheets? That's so 2005.

[magoon]

^ Don't like any of those ideas, based on what Masai has been able to extract from tougher trade situations. If your idea is that you have to toss in a sweetener to unload Carroll, then I would think that the pool of options starts with Bebe, CoJo, Poeltl, Siakam and picks before tossing in Powell.

The point is not simply to unload Carroll, but to get a nice piece or decent first-rounder back in the doing of it. Bebe definitely won't swing that, and Siakam almost certainly won't, and Cojo + Carroll is probably too much money for any team to take on all in one go. (That having been said, yes, I would definitely prefer to trade Bebe + Carroll for a nice young piece over Powell + Carroll, because Powell is the better player. I just don't think there's a GM in the league who makes that trade to take on Carroll's salary, because Bebe doesn't appear to have a good rep around the league, or at least not one good enough to justify that trade.)

(Also I forgot the New Orleans trade would be Pondexter plus a future pick.)

Next season is a contract year and we have his bird rights, which will be important when we're capped out. If he does blow up next year, then his trade value will be even higher at the trade deadline or next off-season so we'd regret trading him in this off-season just simply to assist in 'dumping Carroll'. If he doesn't blow up, then we can re-sign him for cheap and continue to develop him, so I think it makes more sense to wait & see, while taking full advantage of our bird rights. IMO, Powell is the logical successor to PJ, who is getting up there in age.

I appreciate the arguments here, but a few counterpoints.

It's unlikely that Powell is going to be in a position to blow up next season. The Ross/Ibaka trade gave him a few more minutes, but ultimately he's still going to be the third wing after DeMar and Tucker, and arguably the fourth if Delon gets more minutes at the wing. If he stays with Toronto he'll probably average about 18 minutes per game unless one of DeMar or Tucker gets injured. And, even if nobody gets injured but Powell gets promoted to starting wing alongside DeMar, he's still gonna be the team's fourth scoring option after Kyle, DeMar, and Ibaka, maybe the fifth if JV gets more touches.

I'm not saying that in spite of all of this, he can't start averaging, say, 15-18 a game with 3-4 boards (which would give him massive trade value). But I also think that's relatively unlikely.

The argument for trading Powell this offseason is that his value will be maximized to the team trading for him, and the risk lessened for Toronto. The league already has a high opinion of him and there seems to be a consensus he can be a starting wing for a team that needs one; if he confirms that consensus next season playing with Toronto, his trade value actually doesn't increase that much, since everybody who wants him wants him on the assumption that he would be confirming anyway.

Further, if you wait until the trade deadline next season to deal him, your chances of making a trade drop. In the offseason, most teams are ready to try to be contenders and make moves accordingly, which means there's more interest and a better chance of making a deal than at the deadline, when teams A) know who they are contender-wise and B) want much more specific things. This is especially true considering that during the season it's actually harder to make a deal for Powell because his salary is so dinky, making it hard to get back players in return without making it a larger, more complex trade. And on top of that, he'll be a short-term rental. We got Ibaka - a former multiple-time All-Defensive Team selection and nearly an All-Star - for Ross and a weak first-rounder because rentals inherently have less value, both because they're not guaranteed to stay and because blending them into the team's play style is difficult that late in the season.

On top of that, trading Powell at the deadline next year means you're giving up the thing that makes him such a valuable trade asset, namely "a year of Norman Powell for dirt cheap."

I think Powell's trade value this offseason is never going to be higher than it is now. I think, at 24 (which he will be in a month), he's probably at about 75-80% of who he can be as a player now at least, and maybe higher. And that's a good player! But it means that selling on him this offseason means we'd be selling at about as close to peak value as can be managed.

I mean: Jae Crowder is a good player too, and on a great contract which makes him a great value - but Boston fans have basically mentally decided he's a near-All-Star player and Jae Crowder is not that thing and never will be. Let's not be like Boston fans. Let's recognize that some players top out at "good player" and that's just fine.

[JawsGT]

I have to disagree with you magoon. I think Powell's trade value will be it's highest after he gets an actual NBA contract and starts getting regular minutes in order to improve his game. He has loads of potential. I can understand the idea of attaching him to Carroll in a trade, if the target is a vet under contract with term that looks like a great fit for the club and can help the team be even better and perhaps even reduce salary. But trading him and Carroll in order to get a good young player in return seems backwards or at best lateral. He is a good young player himself, so why move him in order to get another one? Plus, this team doesn't need any more good young players, we have plenty of them. MU was just able to execute two beauty trades to bring in two solid vet players without even sacrificing any of our good young players. It just doesn't make sense to me to move him in the type of deals you describe. Now if you wanna add him in a package with Carroll and draft picks to make a run at a guy like Paul George, well that makes more sense to me. And although that deal is very unlikely, thats the type of deal you try and make using Powell. Otherwise, it would seem smarter to me to just keep him and pay him when the time comes.

As for your final comment "Let's recognize that some players top out at "good player" and that's just fine", well that was the same sentiment many attached to Demar. I feel like both Crowder and Powell will both become much better players than they currently are. Whether that means All-star or not is arguable and only time will tell, but to think they have topped out is a little premature IMO. And I would absolutely love to have Crowder on this team, and I'd even consider a Carroll + Powell trade to make it happen, although Ainge would never do that I think.

[magoon]

I have to disagree with you magoon. I think Powell's trade value will be it's highest after he gets an actual NBA contract and starts getting regular minutes in order to improve his game. He has loads of potential.

He's got an "actual NBA contract" right now. The size of his contract isn't something that motivates him to work less hard, and teams aren't going to want him more because he's being paid more money.

Your ideal comparison point here is Chandler Parsons, who had sky-high trade value when he had a contract that was basically negligible, and then got offered a massive contract from Dallas that Houston couldn't realistically afford to match. (Remember: in 2018, Norman Powell will be a restricted free agent like Parsons was.)

I can understand the idea of attaching him to Carroll in a trade, if the target is a vet under contract with term that looks like a great fit for the club and can help the team be even better and perhaps even reduce salary. But trading him and Carroll in order to get a good young player in return seems backwards or at best lateral. He is a good young player himself, so why move him in order to get another one? Plus, this team doesn't need any more good young players, we have plenty of them. MU was just able to execute two beauty trades to bring in two solid vet players without even sacrificing any of our good young players. It just doesn't make sense to me to move him in the type of deals you describe. Now if you wanna add him in a package with Carroll and draft picks to make a run at a guy like Paul George, well that makes more sense to me.

The argument for trading Powell for another good young player is lateral only from a talent standpoint. From a money management standpoint, it's an improvement. If you can get a young player comparable to Powell in potential/talent (difficult but not impossible) by trading Powell who's under a longer-term rookie deal?

Think of it this way. If, for example, Masai really likes someone in the draft this year in the 12-16 range and can snag that player with another team's pick by trading Powell? Over the next four years, that rookie will cost the Raptors about $7-10 million. Powell, over the next four years, will in comparison most likely cost the Raptors at minimum $31 million (one million for the final year of his existing contract and then three years at $10 million per, because he's not going to cost less than that if he continues to play at this level and will most likely earn more). That's $20 million in salary you can put towards paying your star players, who are going to dominate your payroll.

Like, Masai can say "oh MSLE will go into the luxury tax for the right team" all he likes, but what he means is "MLSE will go into the tax if they think the team is a serious championship contender." Right now, even with Ibaka and Tucker, we are a fringe contender at best. If we make Finals this year, maybe MLSE starts seriously considering entering the tax, sure - the East is wide open and LeBron hasn't started his decline yet but every year makes that more likely. But if we don't make Finals this year, we're not a contender yet, and MLSE will be much less likely to agree to go into the tax.

As for your final comment "Let's recognize that some players top out at "good player" and that's just fine", well that was the same sentiment many attached to Demar. I feel like both Crowder and Powell will both become much better players than they currently are. Whether that means All-star or not is arguable and only time will tell, but to think they have topped out is a little premature IMO. And I would absolutely love to have Crowder on this team, and I'd even consider a Carroll + Powell trade to make it happen, although Ainge would never do that I think.

The team's success in developing DeMar is great, but it's worth remembering that he is a major outlier. Like, four years ago the debate was "can DeMar become the next Rip Hamilton" because Hamilton was literally the last player to improve in the way and in the timeframe that DeMar did and that had happened almost a decade previous. Players do not improve in the way that DeMar has improved often at all. Like, Gerald Henderson was widely considered to have become a better player than DeMar in 2012 at the time, and Henderson has stayed static while DeMar has improved; so too could you say the same for Tyreke Evans, Wesley Johnson, Brandon Rush, and any other number of comparable wings who were drafted around the same time.

Relying on DeMar as an example of what can happen with other players is a bad idea.

[JawsGT]

He's got an "actual NBA contract" right now. The size of his contract isn't something that motivates him to work less hard, and teams aren't going to want him more because he's being paid more money.

Your ideal comparison point here is Chandler Parsons, who had sky-high trade value when he had a contract that was basically negligible, and then got offered a massive contract from Dallas that Houston couldn't realistically afford to match. (Remember: in 2018, Norman Powell will be a restricted free agent like Parsons was.)



The argument for trading Powell for another good young player is lateral only from a talent standpoint. From a money management standpoint, it's an improvement. If you can get a young player comparable to Powell in potential/talent (difficult but not impossible) by trading Powell who's under a longer-term rookie deal?

Think of it this way. If, for example, Masai really likes someone in the draft this year in the 12-16 range and can snag that player with another team's pick by trading Powell? Over the next four years, that rookie will cost the Raptors about $7-10 million. Powell, over the next four years, will in comparison most likely cost the Raptors at minimum $31 million (one million for the final year of his existing contract and then three years at $10 million per, because he's not going to cost less than that if he continues to play at this level and will most likely earn more). That's $20 million in salary you can put towards paying your star players, who are going to dominate your payroll.

Like, Masai can say "oh MSLE will go into the luxury tax for the right team" all he likes, but what he means is "MLSE will go into the tax if they think the team is a serious championship contender." Right now, even with Ibaka and Tucker, we are a fringe contender at best. If we make Finals this year, maybe MLSE starts seriously considering entering the tax, sure - the East is wide open and LeBron hasn't started his decline yet but every year makes that more likely. But if we don't make Finals this year, we're not a contender yet, and MLSE will be much less likely to agree to go into the tax.



The team's success in developing DeMar is great, but it's worth remembering that he is a major outlier. Like, four years ago the debate was "can DeMar become the next Rip Hamilton" because Hamilton was literally the last player to improve in the way and in the timeframe that DeMar did and that had happened almost a decade previous. Players do not improve in the way that DeMar has improved often at all. Like, Gerald Henderson was widely considered to have become a better player than DeMar in 2012 at the time, and Henderson has stayed static while DeMar has improved; so too could you say the same for Tyreke Evans, Wesley Johnson, Brandon Rush, and any other number of comparable wings who were drafted around the same time.

Relying on DeMar as an example of what can happen with other players is a bad idea.

I still think there are other ways to save money, that will be more impactful for next season. Powell isn't a problem for salary next season, just the opposite. And if trading him at the draft is an option to to consider, that option will be there next year as well this year. The bigger concerns will be how much will it cost to retain Lowry, Ibaka, Patterson and Tucker and who among those are you willing to sacrifice cause it's unlikely that all four will be back. Keeping Powell or trading him won't change that fact either.

And although Demar is an outlier, you're only fooling yourself if you think Powell isn't going to get better. He has all the tools as well as the work ethic and is yet but a second year player who hasn't received a consistent role or minutes on his team. He will get much better, and even if he doesn't, I wouldn't be willing to make that call yet.

[golden]

He's got an "actual NBA contract" right now. The size of his contract isn't something that motivates him to work less hard, and teams aren't going to want him more because he's being paid more money.

Your ideal comparison point here is Chandler Parsons, who had sky-high trade value when he had a contract that was basically negligible, and then got offered a massive contract from Dallas that Houston couldn't realistically afford to match. (Remember: in 2018, Norman Powell will be a restricted free agent like Parsons was.)



The argument for trading Powell for another good young player is lateral only from a talent standpoint. From a money management standpoint, it's an improvement. If you can get a young player comparable to Powell in potential/talent (difficult but not impossible) by trading Powell who's under a longer-term rookie deal?

Think of it this way. If, for example, Masai really likes someone in the draft this year in the 12-16 range and can snag that player with another team's pick by trading Powell? Over the next four years, that rookie will cost the Raptors about $7-10 million. Powell, over the next four years, will in comparison most likely cost the Raptors at minimum $31 million (one million for the final year of his existing contract and then three years at $10 million per, because he's not going to cost less than that if he continues to play at this level and will most likely earn more). That's $20 million in salary you can put towards paying your star players, who are going to dominate your payroll.

Like, Masai can say "oh MSLE will go into the luxury tax for the right team" all he likes, but what he means is "MLSE will go into the tax if they think the team is a serious championship contender." Right now, even with Ibaka and Tucker, we are a fringe contender at best. If we make Finals this year, maybe MLSE starts seriously considering entering the tax, sure - the East is wide open and LeBron hasn't started his decline yet but every year makes that more likely. But if we don't make Finals this year, we're not a contender yet, and MLSE will be much less likely to agree to go into the tax.



The team's success in developing DeMar is great, but it's worth remembering that he is a major outlier. Like, four years ago the debate was "can DeMar become the next Rip Hamilton" because Hamilton was literally the last player to improve in the way and in the timeframe that DeMar did and that had happened almost a decade previous. Players do not improve in the way that DeMar has improved often at all. Like, Gerald Henderson was widely considered to have become a better player than DeMar in 2012 at the time, and Henderson has stayed static while DeMar has improved; so too could you say the same for Tyreke Evans, Wesley Johnson, Brandon Rush, and any other number of comparable wings who were drafted around the same time.

Relying on DeMar as an example of what can happen with other players is a bad idea.

TBH, I'm having a hard time following the logic here magoon. First off, I'm looking at things through the lens of the Raps being in all out win-now mode for the next 3-5 years with a core of Lowry/DD/PJ/Ibaka and maybe JV. The main objective of any trade would seem to be to get significant upgrades in talent, not lateral moves or acquiring picks, like MU did with Ross for Ibaka.

So, I'm just asking what are your objectives here? Are we trying to replace Powell with cheaper depth for 2018-19 season? If so, why do we have to think about that now, especially when we own his bird rights? Are we trying to dump Carroll to clear cap to re-sign Lowry/Ibaka/PJ & maybe Pat? With Wright coming on strong, CoJo is the ideal target to trade. Is the idea here that Powell has plateaued? We could have said the same thing about Ross last year when he got his 3-yr deal, but he netted us Ibaka this year. Are we trying to sell high on Powell? Sam Dekker + Rockets late 1st rounder seems like a lateral move at best. Furthermore, it's pretty hard to sell high when Powell hasn't even cracked the rotation consistently, like Ross did.

That said, I could definitely see the Pelicans as a trade partner for Carroll, because they need talent in a hurry, period, and Carroll can still shoot. But if you trade Carroll and ideally CoJo, then you really need to keep Powell as a cheap backup 2/3. We still need a bench next year and Wright/Powell is a great low-cost start. A lot depends on if we make it to the Finals, and how much MLSE wants to go in the tax, so it really is wait & see. As you said, Powell's contract is a such a great trade piece and he's exactly the type of switchable wing that every team is looking for, including us. If we can't dump Carroll, then we might be the team that needs to exploit Powell's contract as much as anybody.

I think most of my thinking boils down to: why the urgency to trade Powell this off-season? It all comes down to what offers Masai gets, which we won't have any idea about. I was actually willing to cough up Norm for Ibaka or Milsap, but glad that Masai hung onto him. If Powell goes, hopefully it's another sure-fire upgrade, not an unproven prospect like Dekker.

[lewro]

So norm + DC for ?

Guys that seem to fit the profile above are Sam Dekker, Taurean prince, RHJ. Is that right, Magoon?

[special1]

So norm + DC for ?

Guys that seem to fit the profile above are Sam Dekker, Taurean prince, RHJ. Is that right, Magoon?

Ewwww

I don't understand this. What am I missing?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[magoon]

TBH, I'm having a hard time following the logic here magoon. First off, I'm looking at things through the lens of the Raps being in all out win-now mode for the next 3-5 years with a core of Lowry/DD/PJ/Ibaka and maybe JV. The main objective of any trade would seem to be to get significant upgrades in talent, not lateral moves or acquiring picks, like MU did with Ross for Ibaka.

So, I'm just asking what are your objectives here? Are we trying to replace Powell with cheaper depth for 2018-19 season? If so, why do we have to think about that now, especially when we own his bird rights? Are we trying to dump Carroll to clear cap to re-sign Lowry/Ibaka/PJ & maybe Pat? With Wright coming on strong, CoJo is the ideal target to trade. Is the idea here that Powell has plateaued? We could have said the same thing about Ross last year when he got his 3-yr deal, but he netted us Ibaka this year. Are we trying to sell high on Powell? Sam Dekker + Rockets late 1st rounder seems like a lateral move at best. Furthermore, it's pretty hard to sell high when Powell hasn't even cracked the rotation consistently, like Ross did.

First off, Ross was averaging 22-24 minutes per game for the last few years until we traded him, and post-trade Powell's been averaging about 20, so it's not that big a difference.

The main objective here is turning a selling situation into a buying one.

I think two things are fairly safe assumptions:

1.) If the Raptors don't at least make Finals this year, MLSE isn't going to agree to go into the luxury tax (and certainly not on a repeater basis because the numbers get insane really fast).

2.) The Raptors aim to resign Lowry, Ibaka and Tucker, and 2Pat if possible.

Obviously these two goals are in conflict and we have to shed salary to do it, and I'm looking for a path that lets us keep Cojo - because I think people have been down on him far too much, and after a rocky start he's had a much stronger second half of the season - and JV if possible. (And, frankly, even if we move Carroll that's no guarantee there's enough salary room to keep either of them.)

That obviously means selling Carroll, but in order to dump Carroll's salary, we're going to have to bribe somebody. Outside of MAYBE New Orleans (the only team with the cobmination of cap space and need for Any Talent Whatsoever) I don't think there's a team who will just take his salary for free.

Bribing somebody with a pick to take Carroll seems like a terrible option because the Raptors have demonstrated they're good at finding value in the low end of the draft, and we'll need a steady, slow stream of rookie scale players to fill out the roster while spending money on our stars. (This is more or less exactly the model San Antonio has used for twenty years.)

So my theory is: instead of bribing someone to take Carroll, turn him into the second asset in the deal where Norm is the primary asset. This really won't work with any other player on the Raptors roster except maybe Poeltl, and I think we'd be crazy to trade Poeltl because his skillset is much harder to duplicate than even Norm's. (Maybe Masai can make it work with Pascal but I have my doubts about that.)

Norm makes sense because his primary value is not his play - which is good, don't get me wrong - but because he's a bargain and because he still has the whiff of potential. Both of those factors will evaporate over the course of next season. (To say nothing of the fact that his salary is so low that trading him will actually be slightly difficult - teams over the cap, which will be most of those interested, won't be able to simply take on his salary but will have to ditch a player, and Norm's salary is so low that you actually have a lot of trouble balancing the trade for a comparably skilled young player).

And the other reason is simple: I keep going back to that first point, which is "MLSE isn't going into the tax except for a real contender." If you agree with this line of thinking, and if the Raptors don't prove themselves to be a "real contender" this season or next (and I think we're still missing something to get us past that last hump), then Norm simply isn't going to be affordable for us in the 2018 offseason, because he's gonna get paid at least $10m a year and that'll most likely shove us hard into the tax. Better, I think, to avoid that now and get some return for him. Sam Dekker doesn't impress me terribly, to be honest, but he's got potential and he's affordable, and in a league where you have to pay stars and be economical with the rest of your salary room, that matters a lot. (But I would still prefer a good 2015 mid-first-rounder over him.)

[JawsGT]

Trading both Carroll and Norm together would leave us very thin at the wing though. I guess Cory and Wright could take up sufficient minutes there, but we would still have a single true SF on the team. Maybe Bruno can get some spot minutes, and after watching the 905 last night, I think he may actually be able to do that. But I don't think he could be relied upon for consistent backup minutes at that position, but I don't doubt he's done with the 905 after this season. I'd like to think that BKN would gladly take Carroll with a pick included, if that option is appealing.

And I also love the way Cory has been playing since the all-star break. But you're reasoning for moving Powell holds true for Cory as well. Both are going to be looking for new contracts in 2018, and cory will likely be worth even more than Powell if his play continues like it has lately. Perhaps Cory could be packaged with Carroll to save even more coin for the team? Honestly, shipping out one of the lowest paid players on the team (who actually fills a need) just to dump a larger salary player would be a mistake.

[TrueTorontoFan]

Trading both Carroll and Norm together would leave us very thin at the wing though. I guess Cory and Wright could take up sufficient minutes there, but we would still have a single true SF on the team. Maybe Bruno can get some spot minutes, and after watching the 905 last night, I think he may actually be able to do that. But I don't think he could be relied upon for consistent backup minutes at that position, but I don't doubt he's done with the 905 after this season. I'd like to think that BKN would gladly take Carroll with a pick included, if that option is appealing.

And I also love the way Cory has been playing since the all-star break. But you're reasoning for moving Powell holds true for Cory as well. Both are going to be looking for new contracts in 2018, and cory will likely be worth even more than Powell if his play continues like it has lately. Perhaps Cory could be packaged with Carroll to save even more coin for the team? Honestly, shipping out one of the lowest paid players on the team (who actually fills a need) just to dump a larger salary player would be a mistake.

you trade Caroll... and MAYBE a first rounder...

[charlesnba23]

Who would y'all rather have back next season: Ibaka or Lowry?

[KeonClark]

Who would y'all rather have back next season: Ibaka or Lowry?

Both?

[Nilanka]

Who would y'all rather have back next season: Ibaka or Lowry?

I can't think of any reason to chose Ibaka over Lowry.

[charlesnba23]

I can't think of any reason to chose Ibaka over Lowry.

Cheaper, younger