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Everything (2016-2017) Regular Season Game Threads

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  • TRex wrote: View Post
    The Harry Potters and the Leprechauns both lost as well so not a big deal.
    What spot are we going for again?
    It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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    • KeonClark wrote: View Post
      What spot are we going for again?
      If Cavs finish 1st, we need to avoid 4th.

      If Cavs finish 2nd, we need to avoid 3rd.

      But this assumes that Cavs are our biggest threat. The way they've been playing, maybe we have no reason to fear them anymore.
      Last edited by Nilanka; Thu Mar 30, 2017, 11:03 AM.

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      • DanH wrote: View Post
        We're 7-3 without him this year. Slightly better win rate than our overall season number (70% vs 60%).
        The gap is actually a bit bigger than that. We're 7-3 (70%) without Carroll and 38-27 (58%) with him. Small sample sizes, I know, but it seems to confirm the eye test and trend that we might be better off without JYD 2.0. At the very least, he has no impact either way.

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        • golden wrote: View Post
          But the gap is actually a bit bigger than that. We're 7-3 (70%) without Carroll and 38-27 (58%) with him. Small sample sizes, I know, but it seems to confirm the eye test and trend that we might be better off without JYD 2.0.
          You are essentially giving a lot of weight to 1 win. If they drop one game Carroll didn't start, they'd be 6-4, 60%, basically identical to their record with Carroll.

          I do think we'd probably be better off without Carroll (maybe... hard to say anything with confidence judging in a Lowry-less environment) and certainly he should be top of the list in terms of pieces to move to save money this summer. I just don't think our record with and without him is particularly compelling evidence of that.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • This loss essentially blew any shot at Boston and cleveland, we would have been 2 back with the tiebreaker. Now it's just hope to catch Washington, cause I do think cleveland will retake 1st
            It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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            • I'm not worried about this loss. I think the team played pretty well - Charlotte just went on an offensive onslaught in the 4th and couldn't miss from three. A lot of Walker's shots were well-contested by Joseph; Walker just nailed them.

              And Charlotte was fighting for something (a playoff spot), coming off a brutal loss where they were called out by their coach. They had a fire lit under them. Toronto, with its virtually locked up first round home court advantage, didn't play with much urgency and the results are what they are.

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              • DanH wrote: View Post
                You are essentially giving a lot of weight to 1 win. If they drop one game Carroll didn't start, they'd be 6-4, 60%, basically identical to their record with Carroll.

                I do think we'd probably be better off without Carroll (maybe... hard to say anything with confidence judging in a Lowry-less environment) and certainly he should be top of the list in terms of pieces to move to save money this summer. I just don't think our record with and without him is particularly compelling evidence of that.
                Carroll missed more than 2/3rd of last season and we set a franchise record for wins. Pretty safe to say that the trend is clear and it continues into this season. The evidence is compelling. This team does not need him.

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                • golden wrote: View Post
                  Carroll missed more than 2/3rd of last season and we set a franchise record for wins. Pretty safe to say that the trend is clear and it continues into this season. The evidence is compelling. This team does not need him.
                  The evidence from last year is plenty compelling without bringing up the lack thereof this year.

                  Don't get me wrong, there is plenty of evidence. But record when a player sits out is a terrible way to judge that. Look at our record without Lowry. On-off splits, individual stats, lineups... All much better evidence for your point than the 10 game sample team record.
                  twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                  • Game 76: Pacers at Raptors, Friday March 31st, 7 PM, SN1



                    Probable Starters

                    Toronto
                    PG - Cory Joseph
                    SG - DeMar DeRozan
                    SF - DeMarre Carroll
                    PF - Serge Ibaka
                    C - Jonas Valanciunas

                    Indiana
                    PG - Jeff Teague
                    SG - Monta Ellis
                    SF - Paul George
                    PF - Thad Young
                    C - Myles Turner

                    Performance tracker: odds of Raptors winning game = 65%

                    Fun facts:

                    - Indiana has a 0.0 net rating since the all star break. If ever there was an average team, this is it. They've been losing games lately in spite of it. Another team like CHA that is better than their record or recent record would indicate.

                    - Indiana is 7th in the league in points off catch and shoot jumpers. Force them to create offence individually and a big chunk of their scoring will disappear.

                    - The Raptors have a league average offence and the third best defence since the all star break.

                    Standings watch:

                    1. Cleveland Cavaliers - 47-26 (.644)
                    2. Boston Celtics - 48-27 (.640) | 0 GB
                    3. Washington Wizards - 46-29 (.613) | 2 GB
                    4. Toronto Raptors - 45-30 (.600) | 3 GB
                    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                    • 5 and 2 get us 50...could this be the last lowry less game? Maaaybe

                      Anyway Dan, dan he's our man, if he can't do it, kyle and pj and serge can!

                      Sorry that was awful
                      It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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                      • Another fun fact: the Raptors' small forwards should just never drive the ball. Just shoot the three. Even if contested. Dribbling = bad.

                        DeMarre Carroll this season is shooting 29% from the field on drives. He's gotten lucky with the refs bailing him out a lot, but even with the free throws, he's generated 60 points on 84 drives (that he didn't pass out of - and on his 20 passes out of drives he managed only 4 assists, an assist rate of 3.8%, far lower than everyone else on the team with at least 30 drives). That's effectively an ORTG of 71. In contrast, DeMarre has taken 55 threes classified as either tightly or very tightly contested - and has hit 33% of them, good for an ORTG of about 98.

                        PJ Tucker this season (with the Raps) is shooting 28% from the field on drives this year. He has not gotten the same luck with the refs bailing him out, and he's generated 12 points on 21 drives (that he didn't pass out of - and on his 7 passes out of drives he managed only 1 assist, an assist rate of 3.6%, even lower than Carroll's). That's effectively an ORTG of 57. In contrast, PJ has taken 24 threes classified as either tightly or very tightly contested - and has hit 25% of them, good for an ORTG of about 75.

                        Or, better yet, if they find themselves covered, rather than choosing either option, they should just give the ball to literally anyone else. But if there is a little voice in their head telling them to drive the ball, they are better off just jacking that thing up there from distance, no matter what the defence is doing.
                        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                        • Jclaw wrote: View Post
                          Thanks Bucks? I think.
                          consmap wrote: View Post
                          Why did you take your foot off the pedal
                          KeonClark wrote: View Post
                          What spot are we going for again?
                          That's sort of the point. Without a firm knowledge of chaos theory, I'm going to say this has a lot to do with chaos theory. At this point in the season, the only thing we can do is start fine tuning for the playoffs. Everything else is random, likely til the last day of the season. Sure, it's great to see Boston lose. But does the Bucks handing them that loss mean Cleveland will overtake them and we'll avoid Cleveland by finishing 3rd? But we could just as easily finish 4th and that Boston loss might be the one that puts us in a 1-4 cavs matchup. So while it was nice the see them lose, I have no idea if I should be thankful for it.....yet.

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                          • DanH wrote: View Post
                            Another fun fact: the Raptors' small forwards should just never drive the ball. Just shoot the three. Even if contested. Dribbling = bad.

                            DeMarre Carroll this season is shooting 29% from the field on drives. He's gotten lucky with the refs bailing him out a lot, but even with the free throws, he's generated 60 points on 84 drives (that he didn't pass out of - and on his 20 passes out of drives he managed only 4 assists, an assist rate of 3.8%, far lower than everyone else on the team with at least 30 drives). That's effectively an ORTG of 71. In contrast, DeMarre has taken 55 threes classified as either tightly or very tightly contested - and has hit 33% of them, good for an ORTG of about 98.

                            PJ Tucker this season (with the Raps) is shooting 28% from the field on drives this year. He has not gotten the same luck with the refs bailing him out, and he's generated 12 points on 21 drives (that he didn't pass out of - and on his 7 passes out of drives he managed only 1 assist, an assist rate of 3.6%, even lower than Carroll's). That's effectively an ORTG of 57. In contrast, PJ has taken 24 threes classified as either tightly or very tightly contested - and has hit 25% of them, good for an ORTG of about 75.

                            Or, better yet, if they find themselves covered, rather than choosing either option, they should just give the ball to literally anyone else. But if there is a little voice in their head telling them to drive the ball, they are better off just jacking that thing up there from distance, no matter what the defence is doing.
                            demarre carroll is legitimately the worst wing player i've ever seen at driving the basketball.

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                            • Unless the "foot off the pedal" thing referred to the end of my thread streak. In that case, all good things....

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                              • DanH wrote: View Post
                                Another fun fact: the Raptors' small forwards should just never drive the ball. Just shoot the three. Even if contested. Dribbling = bad.

                                DeMarre Carroll this season is shooting 29% from the field on drives. He's gotten lucky with the refs bailing him out a lot, but even with the free throws, he's generated 60 points on 84 drives (that he didn't pass out of - and on his 20 passes out of drives he managed only 4 assists, an assist rate of 3.8%, far lower than everyone else on the team with at least 30 drives). That's effectively an ORTG of 71. In contrast, DeMarre has taken 55 threes classified as either tightly or very tightly contested - and has hit 33% of them, good for an ORTG of about 98.

                                PJ Tucker this season (with the Raps) is shooting 28% from the field on drives this year. He has not gotten the same luck with the refs bailing him out, and he's generated 12 points on 21 drives (that he didn't pass out of - and on his 7 passes out of drives he managed only 1 assist, an assist rate of 3.6%, even lower than Carroll's). That's effectively an ORTG of 57. In contrast, PJ has taken 24 threes classified as either tightly or very tightly contested - and has hit 25% of them, good for an ORTG of about 75.

                                Or, better yet, if they find themselves covered, rather than choosing either option, they should just give the ball to literally anyone else. But if there is a little voice in their head telling them to drive the ball, they are better off just jacking that thing up there from distance, no matter what the defence is doing.
                                Looks like the eye test matched the stats exactly accurate on this one
                                It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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