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  • rocwell wrote: View Post
    Vegas say we're 3.5 pt favs tonight. And public loves this spread... hammering like crazy. That usually means something bad about to happen.
    Scraptor wrote: View Post
    Oh I get the basics... I was more curious about the something bad happening. How would the public hammering the spread be an indicator of anything? I thought the sharps were the ones who had the inside info like if someone is going to sit.
    The public hammering the spread says the amount of money coming in, regardless if its a lot of small bet or the legendardy "sharps" taking a bigger position than usual might indicate that the line was off ...and thats not a good thing.....

    What causes that ?

    Any number of things...

    one is that the Raps are hardly a public team with a big following an not enough money comes in on them...fix that by giving back points.

    the more conspiratorial among us would say that the Raps are about to say DD or Kyle get the night off and it won't be announced till game time..

    or that a lot of people feel that Sacremento is much better than the raps on this given night....

    rocwell will tell us what he thinks is bad medicine for this game eventually...
    And with the 4th overall pick the Toronto Raptors select..... Scottie Barnes.

    Comment


    • rocwell wrote: View Post
      There's a simple and quite profitable method to beat bookies by fading the public. People really love Toronto to beat Sac by more than 3 points tonight, and they're hammering our spread hard.(Sport insights say 77% of spread bets went on Toronto -3.5). Betting against the public is profitable.

      @Demographic Shift line has opened at 3.5 not 5 points. + The public money takes a lot of time to move the line. Only professional money moves the line quickly.
      No.. it opened with the Raps as -5.5 pick..
      It moved to -3.5 and minus 3 in a day


      http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/
      And with the 4th overall pick the Toronto Raptors select..... Scottie Barnes.

      Comment


      • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
        No.. it opened with the Raps as -5.5 pick..
        It moved to -3.5 and minus 3 in a day


        http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/
        It opened at 3.5 mate. Correct line is 3/3.5. Any other line you see @ Open is incorrect.

        First.. don't ever look at Vegas opening lines, especially @ STRATOSPHERE LOL. They're usually wrong.

        It took only 5 minutes for Stratosphere to correct themselves when Guts.com released their lines.
        Last edited by rocwell; Sun Nov 20, 2016, 02:48 PM.

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        • rocwell wrote: View Post
          It opened at 3.5 mate. Correct line is 3/3.5. Any other line you see @ Open is incorrect.

          First.. don't ever look at Vegas opening lines, especially @ STRATOSPHERE LOL. They're usually wrong.

          It took only 5 minutes for Stratosphere to correct themselves when Guts.com released their lines.
          The timeline from the sports books says 3 hours to change... from the opening line set by the sports book.
          Opened at -5.5 around 1pm on the 19th and then quickly closed up in 3 hours to -3.5...
          Which is enough time to change or balance a line that might be off a touch....
          Its the consensus Las Vegas line.. which probably handles a lot more throughput than whatever Guts.com is...
          Last edited by Demographic Shift; Sun Nov 20, 2016, 02:57 PM.
          And with the 4th overall pick the Toronto Raptors select..... Scottie Barnes.

          Comment


          • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
            The timeline from the sports books says 3 hours to change... from the opening line set by the sports book.
            Opened at -5.5 around 1pm on the 19th and then quickly closed up in 3 hours to -3.5...
            Which is enough time to change or balance a line that might be off a touch....
            Its the consensus Las Vegas line.. which probably handles a lot more throughput than whatever Guts.com is...
            You're wrong. Guts and Pinnacle are two bookies best in the business. They always set their odds correctly and Vegas follows 'em. Just like any other bookie in this beautiful world
            Last edited by rocwell; Sun Nov 20, 2016, 03:06 PM.

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            • rocwell wrote: View Post
              You're wrong. Guts and Pinnacle are two bookies best in the business. They always set their odds correctly and Vegas follows 'em. Just like any other bookie in this beautiful world
              No I am not wrong. You possibly may be a little over exuberant in your view on on line sports books being top dogs...Its actually the opposite...Las Vegas is the top dog for North American sports betting.. always has been and always will be....
              Your on line sites may set the early lines but the real money comes in only when the Vegas sports books weigh in and start taking business...and they adjust when there is an imbalance in bets on NFL.. NBA.. NHL... can't say I follow soccer which I am sure UK books lead the world in...
              Last edited by Demographic Shift; Sun Nov 20, 2016, 03:09 PM.
              And with the 4th overall pick the Toronto Raptors select..... Scottie Barnes.

              Comment


              • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
                No I am not wrong.
                Its actually the opposite...Las Vegas is the top dog for North American sports betting.. always has been and always will be....
                Your sites may set the early lines but the real money comes in only when the Vegas sports books weigh in and start taking business...and they adjust when there is an imbalance in bets....
                Hahaha.

                Tell me then, who opened at 5.5? Just fyi, I know the answer to this question

                EDIT: Let's not hijack this thread.

                I'll tell ya a secret. VI CONSENSUS LINE for Raptors game is just a BetOnline.ag line. Not really "consensus" is it? And that saying that Vegas is the top dog in North American sports betting.. well that's just plain wrong. Vegas-based sharps can't even move the line properly(unless it's a big event like Super Bowl, March Madness). Offshore is the king at everything when it comes to sports betting and It will stay this way until America legalizes gambling.

                By the way, BetOnline.ag bookie is one of the best in the business. I'd put 'em together with Pinnacle and Guts, but on this occasion, they set this line incorrectly. (Line moved down by 2 points due to trading decision, definitely not public money.)
                Last edited by rocwell; Sun Nov 20, 2016, 03:33 PM.

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                • I'm just going to pretend like I never asked lol

                  Raps take this one I think, if Jonas can stay out of foul trouble vs Boogie.

                  Comment


                  • Scraptor wrote: View Post
                    I'm just going to pretend like I never asked lol

                    Raps take this one I think, if Jonas can stay out of foul trouble vs Boogie.
                    Kings will play small. Tough day in the office for Jonas, I guess. No worries tho, we got BEBE!

                    Last edited by rocwell; Sun Nov 20, 2016, 03:51 PM.

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                    • rocwell wrote: View Post
                      Kings will play small. Tough day in the office for Jonas, I guess. No worries tho, we got BEBE!

                      Oh man I needed that laugh!
                      The Double Champ is here!
                      Dynasty King: RRNBADLS7
                      Raptors: Larry O'Brien

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                      • rocwell wrote: View Post
                        Hahaha.

                        Tell me then, who opened at 5.5? Just fyi, I know the answer to this question

                        EDIT: Let's not hijack this thread.

                        I'll tell ya a secret. VI CONSENSUS LINE for Raptors game is just a BetOnline.ag line. Not really "consensus" is it? And that saying that Vegas is the top dog in North American sports betting.. well that's just plain wrong. Vegas-based sharps can't even move the line properly(unless it's a big event like Super Bowl, March Madness). Offshore is the king at everything when it comes to sports betting and It will stay this way until America legalizes gambling.

                        By the way, BetOnline.ag bookie is one of the best in the business. I'd put 'em together with Pinnacle and Guts, but on this occasion, they set this line incorrectly. (Line moved down by 2 points due to trading decision, definitely not public money.)
                        Scraptor wrote: View Post
                        I'm just going to pretend like I never asked lol

                        Raps take this one I think, if Jonas can stay out of foul trouble vs Boogie.
                        I stepped away to watch my bills actually win a game on the road....
                        AND
                        yes if we drop this topic it leaves time to tackle world hunger...

                        So whatever the spread is.. 5.5 or 3.5.... Raps win this one ... and cover
                        Last edited by Demographic Shift; Sun Nov 20, 2016, 05:59 PM.
                        And with the 4th overall pick the Toronto Raptors select..... Scottie Barnes.

                        Comment


                        • Raptors' shooting on wide open attempts so far this year:

                          http://stats.nba.com/league/player/s...mID=1610612761
                          twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

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                          • Rudy gay starting at the 4? I'd like to see lowry-derozan-powell-carroll-jv..I don't like the idea of extended time siakam defending rudy
                            It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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                            • Barolt wrote: View Post
                              Raptors' shooting on wide open attempts so far this year:

                              http://stats.nba.com/league/player/s...mID=1610612761
                              - Ross needs to be cast as the lead in the sequel to American Sniper
                              - Powell and Lowry are shooting a great clip too
                              - 2Pat is just unacceptable, he's getting three wide open 3pt attempts per game and making less than 1. Step it up
                              - It's weird that Carroll is getting so few wide open looks, but he's not even converting the ones he does get.

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                              • Let's go let's go let's go
                                OG is our king

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