Everything Round 1: Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks

[S.R.]

Alright, who picked the Bucks in the poll?

[Scraptor]

Raps. In. 4.

[KeonClark]

Alright, who picked the Bucks in the poll?

Alright GLF, step up for your tarring and feathering.

[KeonClark]

"FUCK DA BUCKS"

[Rudy Bargnani]

The Raptors might need to learn from last game against the Bucks. In the 1st Q, the Raptors refused to match up for size, with JV guarded by Thon, and got the ball inside. JV had 9 points on 4/4 shooting, 5 rebounds and an assist on route to being +10 in the Q in 10 minutes. The Raptors ignored him for the rest of the game, as he managed only 10 more minutes played, and only one more FGA. They would ultimately lose the game by 7, playing lineups with Ibaka or even Patterson at C to match the Bucks.

They were without Lowry in that one, but in the previous three matches, JV still averaged 10 FGA's (in 26 MPG) and was +24 in the three wins. Go big against this Bucks team, don't match up unless you are absolutely getting killed defensively (JV had a 99 DRTG in 4 games against the Bucks this year, so there's no reason to suspect they can take advantage of him on that end).

While I largely agree--the last game vs the Bucks was "The Spencer Hawes game" which led to JV getting the hook. JV beasted on Thon Maker in the first quarter. I'm going on memory, but wHen JV entered the game in the 2nd quarter Hawes had 9 points in 3 minutes on him during a 2nd quarter Milwaukee won by 20. To me, this is why the raps went away from JV. That and Maker got benched and only played 9 minutes.

But yea, JV should be able to do very well on offense. His D has looked good lately too, so hopefully he can do a better job on guys that can step out and shoot the 3.

[mjt20mik]

While I largely agree--the last game vs the Bucks was "The Spencer Hawes game" which led to JV getting the hook. JV beasted on Thon Maker in the first quarter. I'm going on memory, but wHen JV entered the game in the 2nd quarter Hawes had 9 points in 3 minutes on him during a 2nd quarter Milwaukee won by 20. To me, this is why the raps went away from JV. That and Maker got benched and only played 9 minutes.

But yea, JV should be able to do very well on offense. His D has looked good lately too, so hopefully he can do a better job on guys that can step out and shoot the 3.

I really hope Casey gives Poeltl some minutes if this happens. I like using Ibaka at the 5 as a first option, but I think Poeltl is a huge game changer on defense. Also he would feast on the offensive boards.

[Demographic Shift]

The Bucks are going to start a rookie PG in the playoffs...and backing him up is the guy who wasn't good enough to beat out a rookie. Like the Raps chances. A lot.

RAPS in 5

1 - w
2 - w
3 - l
4 - w
5 - w

[DanH]

While I largely agree--the last game vs the Bucks was "The Spencer Hawes game" which led to JV getting the hook. JV beasted on Thon Maker in the first quarter. I'm going on memory, but wHen JV entered the game in the 2nd quarter Hawes had 9 points in 3 minutes on him during a 2nd quarter Milwaukee won by 20. To me, this is why the raps went away from JV. That and Maker got benched and only played 9 minutes.

But yea, JV should be able to do very well on offense. His D has looked good lately too, so hopefully he can do a better job on guys that can step out and shoot the 3.

Yes, I recall the game. With 6:30 left in the 2nd Q, the Raps were down by 5 (with the team having given up a 22-7 run while JV sat between the end of the 1st and middle of the 2nd) and JV subbed in. The Bucks' possessions went like this over the next few minutes:

Middleton 2 point jumper made
Delly jumper missed
Hawes 10 foot jumper made
Giannis missed dunk
Hawes 3 point jumper made
Brogdon turnover
Antetokounmpo layup made
Hawes 3 point jumper made

So, the Bucks scored 12 points to the Raptors' 10 points in that time frame in 8 possessions each, expanding the lead from 5 to 7 (disaster!). Hawes made two open threes and short jumper.

Valanciunas was pulled with a couple minutes left in the 2nd quarter. Hawes, thank goodness, was slightly less effective for the final two minutes (with an assist, an old-fashioned three point play and 2 rebounds in the final 2:30 of the half), and the Bucks scored only 11 points in those final 2 and a half minutes on 5 possessions (a 211 point pace!), pushing their lead to 11 at the half (again, at this point JV was a +11 on the night). Whew, fixed that defensive issue caused by Valanciunas.

Valanciunas played a few minutes to start the 3rd Q, then sat for the rest of the game. He had by far the best on-court defensive rating on the team that game. Heck, in the 2nd Q, when Hawes was such a big issue, the team had a far worse defensive rating with JV on the bench than when he was in the game (nevermind the offence completely tanking without him).

I know the reason JV sat was because Casey saw him get abused on a handful of possessions. I know that was the reason. I'm saying it was a stupid reason and reacting that way cost the Raptors the game in all likelihood. That game was lost as soon as Casey did EXACTLY what the Bucks wanted him to do - match up small with them so they aren't punished for their weaknesses, and can play exactly the way they want to. You think the Bucks want to live and die with Spencer Hawes jump shots? Hell no.

What I'm saying is if the Raptors make the same cowardly reactive choices, they are going to give the Bucks a chance in this series. If the Raptors play their game and play to ther strengths and find ways to use their best players (Greg Monroe played 14 minutes in the 2nd half, how the heck does JV only play 6?), this series should be simple to close out early.

[Deems]

The Bucks are going to start a rookie PG in the playoffs...and backing him up is the guy who wasn't good enough to beat out a rookie. Like the Raps chances. A lot.

Lowry P&R with whoever Giannis is guarding could get the freak into foul trouble early.... I like it

[consmap]

Can't wait to see Carroll try and guard Giannis.

[KeonClark]

Can't wait to see Carroll try and guard Giannis.

The junk yard dog is on a very short leash right now. If he can't defend well or at least hit shots at the other end the only guarding he'll be doing is protecting the bench gatorade supply

[DanH]

Carroll has done a nice job on Giannis this year. In the 4 games, Giannis averages 23 minutes per game with Carroll opposite him, and 13 minutes per game without Carroll. His FG% goes from 54% to 65% when Carroll sits, his points per 36 jump from 21 to 33 (roughly half his points have been scored in the 1/3rd of his playing time without Carroll on him), and his plus-minus per 36 goes from -8 to -6.

[Demographic Shift]

Agreed, Giannis is so easy to root for. I also think I'm a bit more scared of the Bucks than others here. Long athletic perimeter defenders will always pose a challenge, plus Giannis very well might end up the best player in this series. All the stuff about JV dominating inside is true, but if he gets foul trouble, or Casey vies for a smaller lineup to deal with Maker, things could get interesting. Still should be Raps in 6 though, too much talent in the starting lineup to drop 3 losses.

I can assure you,that if your afraid, it does not come close to the shit your pants come to Jesus moments the good folks of Milwaukee are having at the prospect of drawing the raptors in the first round. Three (current and former) all stars with a very solid supporting cast are coming over the hill and they mean business.

And Giannas isn't the best player in this series. He might be third best. I think you can unbunch your underwear. Raps win.

[rocwell]

[S.R.]

Carroll has done a nice job on Giannis this year. In the 4 games, Giannis averages 23 minutes per game with Carroll opposite him, and 13 minutes per game without Carroll. His FG% goes from 54% to 65% when Carroll sits, his points per 36 jump from 21 to 33 (roughly half his points have been scored in the 1/3rd of his playing time without Carroll on him), and his plus-minus per 36 goes from -8 to -6.

This type of matchup is where Carroll, with his height, is still useful.