Everything Round 1: Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks

[DanH]

Posted an article earlier in the week about the Raps playoff rotation. But what I gleaned from researching it most is how to shorten the rotation as much as possible, and use some lineups/combos that have worked great throughout the game.

If you take the starters as given (they probably are, in spite of potential Tucker/Carroll decision), then it shakes out pretty easy.

Starters: Lowry-DeRozan-Carroll-Ibaka-JV
This lineup should be good. They've struggled a lot offensively since Lowry came back, but there's no reason for them to struggle on that end - Lowry and Ibaka were forcing a lot of two man game trying to get on the same page, and when the offence flows back into DeRozan as the primary option in that lineup, and JV as the primary screener, they'll be very good (the same lineup with Siakam in Ibaka's place registered a 107 ORTG, and with Patterson there registered a 129 ORTG - this lineup should fall somewhere in the middle in all likelihood). And in the meantime, in the small sample we have, they've posted a decent if not great 106 DRTG, which is a huge leap better than the 115.5 the starting lineup posted for most of the year. Ultimately, this lineup comes down to trusting these really good players to figure out how to play together.

DeRozan with bench lineup: Joseph-DeRozan-Tucker-Patterson-Ibaka
This is the elite closing lineup we got to see over the past couple months while Lowry was out. Taking JV, Lowry and Carroll out after 8 minutes of 1st Q play gives this lineup 4 minutes of run to try to replicate the tremendous success they've had this season (+18 net rating in 30 minutes since the all star break, driven by a 84 DRTG). They also had that success against closing lineups - let them play against bench units and they should see a bit of an additional boost.

Lowry with the bench lineup: Lowry-Joseph-Carroll-Patterson-Valanciunas
So, this is a different look. In fact, this group hasn't really played together this year (3 minutes total). But two similar groups have. Sub in Powell for Joseph, and we've got a lineup that played 64 minutes and put up a +23 net rating. Sub in DeRozan for Joseph and they put up a +27 net rating in 147 minutes. The good news is that basically anytime Lowry has played with Patterson, the Raptors have been great no matter who else is out there. The top 5 lineups with both players had net ratings of +14, +27, +23, +19, and +19. Of the 15 most used lineups with those two players, 14 had positive net ratings, and 12 of them had net ratings above +10. More importantly, looking at who has been effective with Carroll and JV on the year, the best three man lineups with the pair of them together and at least 200 minutes played are - shock - Patterson and Lowry. Having Lowry out with JV gives the team a primary attack, and with Patterson and Carroll and Joseph the defence should be fairly staunch. This lineup can play the first 6 minutes of the 2nd Q, when the Raps bring in...

Closing lineup: Lowry-DeRozan-Tucker-Patterson-Ibaka or Lowry-Joseph-DeRozan-Tucker-Ibaka
One small version, one big version. Both fantastic, in all likelihood. Not much in way of stats to back it up, except that similar Lowry-led closing lineups (with JV at C, with Pat at C, with Carroll at 4) were fantastic, and similar Lowry-less closing lineups (Ibaka at C with some combo of Tucker, Carroll, Patterson) were also fantastic. Assume 3 minutes of the small and 3 minutes of the big.

Repeat in 2nd half. There will be some transitional lineups moving from one set to the other throughout the game, but we'll ignore those for now. Assuming the minutes break down as shown above, that would mean:

Lowry: 40 MPG
DeRozan: 36 MPG
Carroll: 28 MPG
Ibaka: 36 MPG
Valanciunas: 28 MPG
Joseph: 26 MPG
Tucker: 20 MPG
Patterson: 26 MPG

Odds are you bring Tucker in early in the 2nd and 4th Q's, so some of that Lowry+bench unit is with him instead of Carroll, and you get closer to 24 MPG for each. Ideally you also buy Lowry a couple of minutes middle of the 4th Q with a DeRozan-led unit, to bring both players to 38 MPG for the playoffs. Ibaka at 36 might be a little high, though some games depending on matchups you may see a couple more minutes of JV in there.

You could fit Powell in by having him replace Joseph in the Lowry bench unit, but Lowry's legs probably suffer a bit with the heavy minutes load if he has to be the offence-initiator every play.

Anyway, that's how I see it shaping up.

Lowry-DD-Carroll-Ibaka-JV for 8 minutes in the 1st and 3rd.
Joseph-DD-Tucker-PP-Ibaka for the last 4 minutes of the 1st and 3rd.
Joseph-Lowry-Carroll-PP-JV for the first 6 of the 2nd and 4th (with some Tucker in for Carroll at the end of it).
Then the closing lineups to close each half.

[planetmars]

Question is, who will Giannis be checking on our end?

I suspect Kidd will have Giannis on DD most of the time.

[Nilanka]

“The seeding just tells you who you’re playing,” Kidd said. “Everybody is 0-0 and it’s the first team to 4.

“A lot of times there are upsets. There have been 1-8 upsets. It’s just a matter of you playing your best basketball at the right time and you’re healthy.

Not gonna happen, Jason.

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports...ffs/100375640/

[planetmars]

Ultimately our ace in the hole is JV. If playoff JV shows up, Bucks have no chance. They don't have anyone that can cover JV at all. He's my x-factor for this game.

[Nilanka]

Sekou Smith's prediction:

The Raptors have the playoff DNA that suggests they're built for a deep playoff run. They have star power, experience, depth and a coach who has learned how to navigate this terrain in recent seasons. DeRozan and Lowry went through the fire during last season's run to the conference finals and they have reinforcements this time around. They're prepared for this challenge in ways that the Bucks, even with all of their young talent and a budding superstar in Antetokounmpo, simply are not. At least not right now. Raptors in 6.

http://www.nba.com/article/2017/04/1...ilwaukee-bucks

[planetmars]

Pelton has an insider article on ESPN showing upset chances in the first round. Here is his blurb on the Bucks/Raptors series:
http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/stor...l-kevin-pelton

6. Toronto Raptors (3) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (6)

The Bucks probably look a little friskier as an underdog than they really are by virtue of outperforming their point differential after the All-Star break. Milwaukee went 17-10 while getting outscored by 1.1 points per game.

Toronto, meanwhile, went 18-7 after the break despite not getting All-Star guard Kyle Lowry back in the lineup until last week. The Raptors, who sport the Eastern Conference's best point differential (plus-4.2 ppg), should be comfortable favorites.

Upset probability: 13 percent

Other probabilities in the East: Bulls v Celtics (29%), Atlanta v Washington (18%), Indiana v Cleveland (16%)

PS - if you do not have insider access, you can use this link to access articles.

[tDotted]

The only weakness giannis has is his shooting other than that he is a complete player.

It's a huge weakness for a player like him that starts most of his offense from the perimeter. If the Raptors contain their transition/paint attack, you won't notice Giannis at all for huge stretches of the game.

[3inthekeon]

Remember all the mid-season talk about how terrible JV was playing? Don't hear any of that now.

Well the same with Monroe. He's been really good for some now and is a lot better than you guys think.

[hotfuzz]

Ultimately our ace in the hole is JV. If playoff JV shows up, Bucks have no chance. They don't have anyone that can cover JV at all. He's my x-factor for this game.

If they give him the ball, that is.

[Nilanka]

If they give him the ball, that is.

He only gets the ball if he shoots 3's.

[planetmars]

If they give him the ball, that is.

Playoff JV gets the ball

[KeonClark]

Anybody else notice how the Leafs game is gonna start while the Raptors are in the 3rd quarter.

Thanks NBA

[Machine]

Lots of respect for the raptors on the bucks realgm forum.

[The Great One]

Anybody else notice how the Leafs game is gonna start while the Raptors are in the 3rd quarter.

Thanks NBA

So no Jurassic Park this year?

Fuck the Maple Laughs. Hopefully they get swept in the 1st round. Go Caps Go!!!!

[octothorp]

I suspect Kidd will have Giannis on DD most of the time.

I agree, but that's not necessarily a great advantage for them. If you put Giannis on DeRozan, Middleton on Tucker/Carroll, then the Raptors space those guys out in the corners and run a lot of pick-and-rolls/pops with Lowry and Ibaka/JV. If DeRozan is serving largely to just drag Giannis out of the defensive lanes, that's still a plus for the Raptors who should be able to torch whoever is left in the lanes and the offensive glass.

Of course, there's always the possibility that the Raptors don't do that and instead just have DeRozan try to attack Giannis; they might even be able to win through that... but it's certainly not exploiting the situation the way they could.