Everything Round 1: Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks

[KeonClark]

So no Jurassic Park this year?

Fuck the Maple Laughs. Hopefully they get swept in the 1st round. Go Caps Go!!!!

Well, their game is in Washington and ours is in Toronto, so hopefully being home playoff trumps. But it will still take attention off the Raptors. Go Washington Capitals.

[Deems]

Only the 1st game has a conflict. We all good to go after that

[DanH]

Well, their game is in Washington and ours is in Toronto, so hopefully being home playoff trumps. But it will still take attention off the Raptors. Go Washington Capitals.

It does. They've announced the schedule for the square and Saturday's game is the only one that overlaps both teams, and since the Raptors are at home, their game will be shown to the end before switching to the Leafs game.

[GLF]

Posted an article earlier in the week about the Raps playoff rotation. But what I gleaned from researching it most is how to shorten the rotation as much as possible, and use some lineups/combos that have worked great throughout the game.

If you take the starters as given (they probably are, in spite of potential Tucker/Carroll decision), then it shakes out pretty easy.

Starters: Lowry-DeRozan-Carroll-Ibaka-JV
This lineup should be good. They've struggled a lot offensively since Lowry came back, but there's no reason for them to struggle on that end - Lowry and Ibaka were forcing a lot of two man game trying to get on the same page, and when the offence flows back into DeRozan as the primary option in that lineup, and JV as the primary screener, they'll be very good (the same lineup with Siakam in Ibaka's place registered a 107 ORTG, and with Patterson there registered a 129 ORTG - this lineup should fall somewhere in the middle in all likelihood). And in the meantime, in the small sample we have, they've posted a decent if not great 106 DRTG, which is a huge leap better than the 115.5 the starting lineup posted for most of the year. Ultimately, this lineup comes down to trusting these really good players to figure out how to play together.

DeRozan with bench lineup: Joseph-DeRozan-Tucker-Patterson-Ibaka
This is the elite closing lineup we got to see over the past couple months while Lowry was out. Taking JV, Lowry and Carroll out after 8 minutes of 1st Q play gives this lineup 4 minutes of run to try to replicate the tremendous success they've had this season (+18 net rating in 30 minutes since the all star break, driven by a 84 DRTG). They also had that success against closing lineups - let them play against bench units and they should see a bit of an additional boost.

Lowry with the bench lineup: Lowry-Joseph-Carroll-Patterson-Valanciunas
So, this is a different look. In fact, this group hasn't really played together this year (3 minutes total). But two similar groups have. Sub in Powell for Joseph, and we've got a lineup that played 64 minutes and put up a +23 net rating. Sub in DeRozan for Joseph and they put up a +27 net rating in 147 minutes. The good news is that basically anytime Lowry has played with Patterson, the Raptors have been great no matter who else is out there. The top 5 lineups with both players had net ratings of +14, +27, +23, +19, and +19. Of the 15 most used lineups with those two players, 14 had positive net ratings, and 12 of them had net ratings above +10. More importantly, looking at who has been effective with Carroll and JV on the year, the best three man lineups with the pair of them together and at least 200 minutes played are - shock - Patterson and Lowry. Having Lowry out with JV gives the team a primary attack, and with Patterson and Carroll and Joseph the defence should be fairly staunch. This lineup can play the first 6 minutes of the 2nd Q, when the Raps bring in...

Closing lineup: Lowry-DeRozan-Tucker-Patterson-Ibaka or Lowry-Joseph-DeRozan-Tucker-Ibaka
One small version, one big version. Both fantastic, in all likelihood. Not much in way of stats to back it up, except that similar Lowry-led closing lineups (with JV at C, with Pat at C, with Carroll at 4) were fantastic, and similar Lowry-less closing lineups (Ibaka at C with some combo of Tucker, Carroll, Patterson) were also fantastic. Assume 3 minutes of the small and 3 minutes of the big.

Repeat in 2nd half. There will be some transitional lineups moving from one set to the other throughout the game, but we'll ignore those for now. Assuming the minutes break down as shown above, that would mean:

Lowry: 40 MPG
DeRozan: 36 MPG
Carroll: 28 MPG
Ibaka: 36 MPG
Valanciunas: 28 MPG
Joseph: 26 MPG
Tucker: 20 MPG
Patterson: 26 MPG

Odds are you bring Tucker in early in the 2nd and 4th Q's, so some of that Lowry+bench unit is with him instead of Carroll, and you get closer to 24 MPG for each. Ideally you also buy Lowry a couple of minutes middle of the 4th Q with a DeRozan-led unit, to bring both players to 38 MPG for the playoffs. Ibaka at 36 might be a little high, though some games depending on matchups you may see a couple more minutes of JV in there.

You could fit Powell in by having him replace Joseph in the Lowry bench unit, but Lowry's legs probably suffer a bit with the heavy minutes load if he has to be the offence-initiator every play.

Anyway, that's how I see it shaping up.

Lowry-DD-Carroll-Ibaka-JV for 8 minutes in the 1st and 3rd.
Joseph-DD-Tucker-PP-Ibaka for the last 4 minutes of the 1st and 3rd.
Joseph-Lowry-Carroll-PP-JV for the first 6 of the 2nd and 4th (with some Tucker in for Carroll at the end of it).
Then the closing lineups to close each half.

Man. I really hope Casey follows this but we have all learned we cannot trust him when it comes to substitutions and lineups

[mike, prague]

It does. They've announced the schedule for the square and Saturday's game is the only one that overlaps both teams, and since the Raptors are at home, their game will be shown to the end before switching to the Leafs game.

I'd hope being at home wouldn't be the deal-breaker on that. Common sense (which does not always apply to TV channels and Hockey over Basketball) is that the end of the game of any sport should have priority over the beginning of the next.

[octothorp]

I hope the Raptors take it personally that all the playoff previews for this series are focusing on hyping Giannis. Let them have the better player. Be the better team, and make that your point you want to prove.

[The Great One]

Is he really the best player in this series though?

[golden]

Only the 1st game has a conflict. We all good to go after that

Raps getting respect - making the Leaf fans wait to get the game on the big screen at ML square. In earlier days, Raps would have been bumped by a regional curling match.

[KeonClark]

Only the 1st game has a conflict. We all good to go after that

What a time to be alive if youre in downtown Toronto and enjoy sports

[KeonClark]

Is he really the best player in this series though?

No

[octothorp]

Is he really the best player in this series though?

Nah, but a lot of the media is eager to give him that 'budding superstar' label a lot more easily than they'll give it to anyone on the Raptors.

[planetmars]

Hope DD has a coming out party these playoffs.. already showed he can do that in the regular season. Now needs to throw out some 40pt bombs in these playoffs.

By the way is he still under the weather? Hope he gets that flu under control by Saturday.

[KeonClark]

Posted an article earlier in the week about the Raps playoff rotation. But what I gleaned from researching it most is how to shorten the rotation as much as possible, and use some lineups/combos that have worked great throughout the game.

If you take the starters as given (they probably are, in spite of potential Tucker/Carroll decision), then it shakes out pretty easy.

Starters: Lowry-DeRozan-Carroll-Ibaka-JV
This lineup should be good. They've struggled a lot offensively since Lowry came back, but there's no reason for them to struggle on that end - Lowry and Ibaka were forcing a lot of two man game trying to get on the same page, and when the offence flows back into DeRozan as the primary option in that lineup, and JV as the primary screener, they'll be very good (the same lineup with Siakam in Ibaka's place registered a 107 ORTG, and with Patterson there registered a 129 ORTG - this lineup should fall somewhere in the middle in all likelihood). And in the meantime, in the small sample we have, they've posted a decent if not great 106 DRTG, which is a huge leap better than the 115.5 the starting lineup posted for most of the year. Ultimately, this lineup comes down to trusting these really good players to figure out how to play together.

DeRozan with bench lineup: Joseph-DeRozan-Tucker-Patterson-Ibaka
This is the elite closing lineup we got to see over the past couple months while Lowry was out. Taking JV, Lowry and Carroll out after 8 minutes of 1st Q play gives this lineup 4 minutes of run to try to replicate the tremendous success they've had this season (+18 net rating in 30 minutes since the all star break, driven by a 84 DRTG). They also had that success against closing lineups - let them play against bench units and they should see a bit of an additional boost.

Lowry with the bench lineup: Lowry-Joseph-Carroll-Patterson-Valanciunas
So, this is a different look. In fact, this group hasn't really played together this year (3 minutes total). But two similar groups have. Sub in Powell for Joseph, and we've got a lineup that played 64 minutes and put up a +23 net rating. Sub in DeRozan for Joseph and they put up a +27 net rating in 147 minutes. The good news is that basically anytime Lowry has played with Patterson, the Raptors have been great no matter who else is out there. The top 5 lineups with both players had net ratings of +14, +27, +23, +19, and +19. Of the 15 most used lineups with those two players, 14 had positive net ratings, and 12 of them had net ratings above +10. More importantly, looking at who has been effective with Carroll and JV on the year, the best three man lineups with the pair of them together and at least 200 minutes played are - shock - Patterson and Lowry. Having Lowry out with JV gives the team a primary attack, and with Patterson and Carroll and Joseph the defence should be fairly staunch. This lineup can play the first 6 minutes of the 2nd Q, when the Raps bring in...

Closing lineup: Lowry-DeRozan-Tucker-Patterson-Ibaka or Lowry-Joseph-DeRozan-Tucker-Ibaka
One small version, one big version. Both fantastic, in all likelihood. Not much in way of stats to back it up, except that similar Lowry-led closing lineups (with JV at C, with Pat at C, with Carroll at 4) were fantastic, and similar Lowry-less closing lineups (Ibaka at C with some combo of Tucker, Carroll, Patterson) were also fantastic. Assume 3 minutes of the small and 3 minutes of the big.

Repeat in 2nd half. There will be some transitional lineups moving from one set to the other throughout the game, but we'll ignore those for now. Assuming the minutes break down as shown above, that would mean:

Lowry: 40 MPG
DeRozan: 36 MPG
Carroll: 28 MPG
Ibaka: 36 MPG
Valanciunas: 28 MPG
Joseph: 26 MPG
Tucker: 20 MPG
Patterson: 26 MPG

Odds are you bring Tucker in early in the 2nd and 4th Q's, so some of that Lowry+bench unit is with him instead of Carroll, and you get closer to 24 MPG for each. Ideally you also buy Lowry a couple of minutes middle of the 4th Q with a DeRozan-led unit, to bring both players to 38 MPG for the playoffs. Ibaka at 36 might be a little high, though some games depending on matchups you may see a couple more minutes of JV in there.

You could fit Powell in by having him replace Joseph in the Lowry bench unit, but Lowry's legs probably suffer a bit with the heavy minutes load if he has to be the offence-initiator every play.

Anyway, that's how I see it shaping up.

Lowry-DD-Carroll-Ibaka-JV for 8 minutes in the 1st and 3rd.
Joseph-DD-Tucker-PP-Ibaka for the last 4 minutes of the 1st and 3rd.
Joseph-Lowry-Carroll-PP-JV for the first 6 of the 2nd and 4th (with some Tucker in for Carroll at the end of it).
Then the closing lineups to close each half.

Not a chance Carroll plays 28 and Tucker plays 20. i know you touched on it, but Carroll is going to struggle to play much at all if he doesn't turn it around soon.

[KeonClark]

I did.

Damn when did Mike Tyson start lookin like a college professor

[S.R.]

My assumption is:

Lowry on Brogdon
Derozan on Snell
Carroll on Middleton
Ibaka on Giannis
JV on Maker

I know Giannis will try to run point and Ibaka can't guard him on the perimeter, but considering he can't shoot 3's he can back off a little bit up top. If they run the P&R either go underneath or a soft hedge on the switch forcing him baseline. In the post it's an even match between those 2.

Ibaka is going to be too slow in space for Giannis. The threat from the perimeter is not his shooting, it's that he's very quick and would love nothing more than to drive to the rim - he's a paint scorer. Quickness + reach is needed to defend him.