GOLDBLUM wrote:
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Everything Round 1: Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks
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So one thing I've been trying to guess is how Milwaukee's young players are going to do under the playoff spot-light (and I'm a bit annoyed at the many media sources who are salivating over 'playoff giannis', like it's a given he's going to elevate to another level.
I started looking into their clutch stats a little more. Generally, they were not a good clutch team pre-allstar break (11-15 in games that included clutch minutes), and great after the all-star break (9-2). At first glance, this could be the sign of a team that has become supremely more confident playing in clutch situations. But maybe not: Giannis, for example, has actually shot far worse in clutch situations of late, as his clutch TS% dropped from 50% pre-allstar break to 33% post all-star break. And his usage actually increased in these situations. Middleton's clutch TS% post allstar is similarly bad: 39.5%. Monroe's TS% has been really good both before and after, but his usage has gone down significantly. Brogdon has had much better TS% post all-star, but much lower usage too.
Overall, despite having the best clutch winning percentage post all-star break, they are merely 26th in clutch Offensive Rating over that time; their TS% of 53.9 is in the bottom 10. Their clutch rebounding (offensive, defensive and combined) remain among the worst in the league.
The contrast is an 89.9% clutch defensive rating post all-star, easily best in the league. (Toronto by comparison, is #3 in post-allstar clutch defensive, #1 in offensive rating, and #1 in net). They're 5th in blocked shots, 12th in steals in these situations. They've limited opponents to just 16% shooting on 3s in these situations, which is really impressive but also difficult to parse out just how much is elite perimeter defense and how much is small sample-size misses. They allowed a good, but not elite, 27% from 3 pre all-star break, with Middleton's presence perhaps making a difference there.
So, all of this suggests that there's nothing really frighteningly clutch about Milwaukee, despite the good clutch record down the stretch. Their offense isn't really clutch, they have no players that are really clutch, and defensively they've got one really clutch skill (defending the three). The reason that shouldn't scare Toronto is that Toronto scores just 19% of their clutch points from 3, third lowest in the league.
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