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The Argument Against A Rebuild

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  • The Argument Against A Rebuild

    I understand this winning thing is new to us and we'd like to keep it going...but besides that point, what validates against having a complete rebuild? I'm 110% in for a rebuild but I feel like Masai and company aren't. So to calm my pessimistic thoughts, could y'all please make a case of this so called 'continuity' with the current stock of talent we have?

  • #2
    Deems wrote: View Post
    I understand this winning thing is new to us and we'd like to keep it going...but besides that point, what validates against having a complete rebuild? I'm 110% in for a rebuild but I feel like Masai and company aren't. So to calm my pessimistic thoughts, could y'all please make a case of this so called 'continuity' with the current stock of talent we have?
    The argument is pretty simple. This collection, led by Lowry in particular, has been a top 5 or so NBA team for a couple of seasons now, and barring some injuries and strategy issues, would be in striking distance of a perennial ECF appearance and a shot at the Finals. Fix the system (ie get a new coach, ideally), or tweak the surrounding talent, or both, and see how far you can push this group. No one believes what we've seen from them is the best of what they are capable of - there have been obvious failings in terms of playoff performance and preparation compared to how they operate at their peak.

    So, you give it a shot, because getting back to this point of success, even with a well executed rebuild, is not particularly likely.

    That said, I see no logic in the arguments to keep trying to push this boulder up the hill if we lose Lowry.
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • #3
      Maintain status quo until we catch a break. That break could be in the form of a LeBron injury, or a Masai fleecing in a trade (we trade Carroll for Paul George, LOL).

      Comment


      • #4
        While I agree a couple tweaks and a new coach could push this team over the edge, however I don't see the financial flexibility to make this happen. As much magic Masai can have, you're not moving Demarre Carroll for a legitimate role player unless you pair him with a 1st rounder. We don't have the money to sign legitimate FA as well. If the whole core is back we're rolling the dice on a 32 year old who's prone to injury and slumps and 27 year old Ibaka who doesn't appear to play like a 27 year old.

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        • #5
          Nilanka wrote: View Post
          Maintain status quo until we catch a break. That break could be in the form of a LeBron injury, or a Masai fleecing in a trade (we trade Carroll for Paul George, LOL).
          This is what I mean, most arguments for not rebuilding is these idealistic ideas of catching a break against LeBron knowing you have Golden State lined up next, or Masai pulling some devil magic to gain a superstar for chump change. It's simply not realistic to me.

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          • #6
            You retain your assets. Their value is not going to drop considerably in one year. If it doesn't work you can trade them next year and you'll have picks or prospects to show for it. Don't let assets walk.
            All man. All amazing.

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            • #7
              One thing that 15-7 run without Lowry showed is that Casey has no reason to play him 38-40 minutes a game. Give him sufficient rest and games off. Make sure that Lowry is healthy for playoffs. Lowry was great in Brooklyn series. In Washington series he was injured and broken. Last year he was injured again but he contributed everywhere else. And this year playoff again he broke down again and had no time to develop chemistry with Ibaka and Tucker.
              All man. All amazing.

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              • #8
                From the Perspective in a Painful Time thread (sorry if it's lacking a little context):

                1. My point about the trade deadline deal being step 2 out of 6 was about the steps leading from being a very good team to a great team, not team-building in general. You could argue that we've been very good for a while, but I was thinking we got there last season, as Masai had been in asset-collection mode despite winning quite a few games. The remaining steps are the levers available to managers of teams that commit to being great. Maybe we're on more like Step 4 of 6 this summer (Established ourselves in 15-16, strong offseason, trade deadline deal, Step 4)

                2. These levers, that exist to NBA teams above the cap, constitute much of the rich-get-richer nature of the NBA. You have to be careful when it comes to the tax, but high-spending teams get a lot of leeway and mechanisms for improvement thanks to the soft cap. And it's these levers - MLE, ring-chaser veteran mins, late first round draft steals, and soon 2-way contracts - that Masai still has at his disposal. I'll give you that we're in a bit of a precarious position regarding the tax and our current set of free agents, but that's what you need good management for.

                3. 21-22 years old IS uber young, it's what made us one of the younger rosters in the league. And save for Bruno, each of these guys have demonstrated that they will be pretty much good-to-go for next season. You might be pining for a superstar but these are all good prospects, good pieces of the puzzle, and together constitute one of the better 5-man youth-squads in the league.

                4. All of these guys, JV included, seem to be developing pretty well to me. JV basically averaged a double-double this season.

                5. Lowry, DeMar, JV, and Ibaka might be broken up. But that's also a damn good core, especially if you can get the right players around them. Add a couple knock-down shooters and it completely shifts how difficult they are to guard.

                Finally, a quick list of our assets/levers that Masai can pull:
                -We have full bird rights on all our free agents, costly to keep them all, but nothing to sneeze at.
                -The number 5 leading scorer in the league
                -Youth squad on cheap contracts - Powell, Poeltl, Delon, Bruno, Siakim
                -Full MLE
                -First round pick (this is where Masai and the staff have got to continue earning their paychecks), second round as well?
                -Early Bird Rights on one of the better guards in Europe Nando de Colo (possible backup plan if Kyle walks, or just to add a pure shooter)
                -only one albatross contract in Carroll, still tradeable
                -Cory and JV
                -2 2-way contracts, one of which could be used to bring former 2nd round pick DeAndre Daniels, healthy and playing decent ball in Europe, back into the fold
                -A coaching upgrade, or at least a shift of "style", should be expected

                Bottomline, Masai has stockpiled a lot of assets in preparation for this summer. This is not your younger-self's Raptor team with GG going all-in on big contracts to Alvin, JYD, and AD with very little internal development plan in place.

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                • #9
                  Deems wrote: View Post
                  I understand this winning thing is new to us and we'd like to keep it going...but besides that point, what validates against having a complete rebuild? I'm 110% in for a rebuild but I feel like Masai and company aren't. So to calm my pessimistic thoughts, could y'all please make a case of this so called 'continuity' with the current stock of talent we have?
                  I'd look at the big picture. I know they haven't shown up as themselves in the playoffs, but think of how much ~75% of the league now would do, just to have the back-court we have. Or re-phrasing it: How many years of tanking and uncertainty it would take just to get back to a place we're already at right now? (i.e. regardless of what you think of DD, with two all-stars, one of which a starting all-star, top 5th scorer on the league, PLUS also being 3rd youngest team in the league, AND still having first rounders in the horizon)

                  You don't give up a place like this for nothing, especially if no one not named Cleveland Cavaliers managed to beat you in the playoffs in the past two years, in spite of injuries. Keep knocking on the door.

                  If it looks like we're tight against the cap, it's because we're close to getting there.

                  I firmly believe this year was about the 3-pt line, as it will be next year. That's what separated us from the elite. That's it. We can blame this on coaching, players, system, whatever the source may be, but when the rubber met the road on the court, it was the 3 (or lack thereof). Fix that and you're back at it. And we don't need to tank for that.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    DanH wrote: View Post
                    The argument is pretty simple. This collection, led by Lowry in particular, has been a top 5 or so NBA team for a couple of seasons now, and barring some injuries and strategy issues, would be in striking distance of a perennial ECF appearance and a shot at the Finals. Fix the system (ie get a new coach, ideally), or tweak the surrounding talent, or both, and see how far you can push this group. No one believes what we've seen from them is the best of what they are capable of - there have been obvious failings in terms of playoff performance and preparation compared to how they operate at their peak.

                    So, you give it a shot, because getting back to this point of success, even with a well executed rebuild, is not particularly likely.

                    That said, I see no logic in the arguments to keep trying to push this boulder up the hill if we lose Lowry.
                    Yea but we aren't going to be able to keep everybody anyway so we won't really be giving this same team another shot. It will be an even worse version of this years team. And if this years team couldn't do any damage neither will next years. Especially with teams improving. Who cares about being top 5 during the season when you completely fall apart in the playoffs and your two best players efficiency goes to shit. Also if you're sitting there hoping Casey gets fired, good luck with that. As long as Casey's still here nothing will change. Masai can say what he wants. Casey is too stubborn and too old school. You can't teach an old dog new tricks. Another year of no ball movement, no use of the bigs and no offensive plays what so ever. But all of this with a less talented team and no future assets in sight. Smh. Oh and if we aren't able to trade Cory or Demarre Casey WILL continue to play them WAY too much. Casey HAS to go for us to have any hope to be completely honest
                    I relish negativity and disappointment. It is not healthy. Somebody buy me a pony.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      inthepaint wrote: View Post
                      I'd look at the big picture. I know they haven't shown up as themselves in the playoffs, but think of how much ~75% of the league now would do, just to have the back-court we have. Or re-phrasing it: How many years of tanking and uncertainty it would take just to get back to a place we're already at right now? (i.e. regardless of what you think of DD, with two all-stars, one of which a starting all-star, top 5th scorer on the league, PLUS also being 3rd youngest team in the league, AND still having first rounders in the horizon)

                      You don't give up a place like this for nothing, especially if no one not named Cleveland Cavaliers managed to beat you in the playoffs in the past two years, in spite of injuries. Keep knocking on the door.

                      If it looks like we're tight against the cap, it's because we're close to getting there.

                      I firmly believe this year was about the 3-pt line, as it will be next year. That's what separated us from the elite. That's it. We can blame this on coaching, players, system, whatever the source may be, but when the rubber met the road on the court, it was the 3 (or lack thereof). Fix that and you're back at it. And we don't need to tank for that.
                      1. I have no idea where this 3rd-youngest stuff is coming from, we were 15th by minutes played per basketball reference.
                      2. Every team has first rounders on the horizon except the Nets. Picks 20+ are generally not moving the needle, as seen most recently with Bruno and Delon.
                      3. We were last in assists per game and closer to average than elite on defense. If it was as simple a solution as needing more threes than with Terrence we should have been amazing. But we weren't.

                      MixxAOR wrote: View Post
                      You retain your assets. Their value is not going to drop considerably in one year. If it doesn't work you can trade them next year and you'll have picks or prospects to show for it. Don't let assets walk.
                      This was the rationale after the Carroll signing. Any sort of decline in Lowry or Ibaka and asset value certainly decreases.

                      SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                      Bottomline, Masai has stockpiled a lot of assets in preparation for this summer. This is not your younger-self's Raptor team with GG going all-in on big contracts to Alvin, JYD, and AD with very little internal development plan in place.
                      This will be the third summer in a row we've heard about big plans for the summer. First summer we got Carroll, last summer we got Jared Sullinger. We don't have a stockpile of assets, Boston has a stockpile of assets.

                      ---

                      I'm not pounding the table on rebuilding but we need to be realistic about where are right now.
                      Last edited by Scraptor; Thu May 18th, 2017, 12:44 PM.

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                      • #12
                        I also find the idea that, you can trust Masai with complete teardown and rebuild but you don't trust him otherwise, flawed
                        All man. All amazing.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Scraptor wrote: View Post
                          1. I have no idea where this 3rd-youngest stuff is coming from, we were 15th by minutes played per basketball reference.
                          2. Every team has firsr rounders on the horizon except the Nets. Picks 20+ are generally not moving the needle, as seen most recently with Bruno and Delon.
                          3. We were last in assists per game and closer to average than elite on defense. If it was as simple a solution as needing more threes than with Terrence we should have bern amazing. But we weren't.


                          1. Raptors were the 3rd youngest before the mid-season trades, now we're the 5th, tied with Boston (average age 25.6). Here's the source: http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/tra...osition_search
                          The only teams that are younger than the Raptors: 76ers, Blazers, Magic and Suns. Aside from Portland, all bottom of the barrel non-playoff teams. We're not very far from them in age, yet only lost to the defending NBA champions over the past two years.

                          2. Sure, "horizon" is a pretty vague term, but if we're talking this year, these are some of teams without a first round pick: Cleveland, Golden State, Houston & Washignton. The Nets actually have a first round pick this year. In fact, the only teams in the top 8 this year that still have a 1st round pick are the Raptors, the Spurs, Utah and Boston.
                          Norman Powell = 24 pick. We wouldn't have made it to the ECF last year, or out of the first round this year without him. So yes, that moved the needle quite a bit. Call him an exception, but then again so was Number 1 pick Anthony Bennet and many others. And that's the whole point of the Draft, sure it's important, but it's a huge gamble, with a lot of variables and uncertainties, which strengthens the argument for not tanking when you don't have to (not the other way around).

                          3. Yes assists were a huge issue, but it's worth remembering an assist only counts if the guy receiving it knocks down the shot. If we were knocking the open 3's, the assists, albeit still probably far from ideal, would have been much better. They're related stats. We wouldn't have been amazing with or without T-Ross. I loved him, but it wouldn't have changed one iota because he's one guy, which happens to have never really showed up in a playoff environment. I can name at least 7 players in the Cavs that are more consistent 3-pt shooters in a playoff setting than him or any player in Toronto right now (LBJ, Kyrie, Love, JR. Smith, Frye, Korver and yes, even Schumpert). Cavs outscored TOR by over 100 points beyond the yard over the series, pretty much amounting to a full game. It was the largest 3-pt differential over 4 playoff games in NBA history. You can can assist and defend all you want friends, but you're not going to overcome this without a system and some solid shooters of your own. So yes, the 3-point firepower might not be the only issue, but it's for sure the most glaring discrepancy, and at the heart of it. Address that and you're putting up a fight, and you don't need to tank to do that.

                          SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post

                          ...Lowry, DeMar, JV, and Ibaka might be broken up. But that's also a damn good core, especially if you can get the right players around them. Add a couple knock-down shooters and it completely shifts how difficult they are to guard.
                          Precisely. How many times have we seen other teams trapping our guards, daring someone on else on the team to beat them, and we're looking lost, missing open looks and throwing bricks against the shot clock? You add a couple of escape valves, some sharp shooters the defence really needs to respect, and it completely changes your offense dynamics and efficiency. The fact they still managed to get to the top 8 even without having this speaks to how good they are as a core, not the other way around.
                          Last edited by inthepaint; Wed May 17th, 2017, 11:39 PM.

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                          • #14
                            inthepaint wrote: View Post
                            1. Raptors were the 3rd youngest before the mid-season trades, now we're the 5th, tied with Boston (average age 25.6). Here's the source: http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/tra...osition_search
                            The only teams that are younger than the Raptors: 76ers, Blazers, Magic and Suns. Aside from Portland, all bottom of the barrel non-playoff teams. We're not very far from them in age, yet only lost to the defending NBA champions over the past two years.
                            We're heavily skewed by players who are outside the 9-10 man rotation (i.e. Bruno, Delon, Van Vleet, Siakam, Poeltl, etc.). The heavy lifting is done by old guys, not young guys.

                            We're a "young" team on paper only, not in reality.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Nilanka wrote: View Post
                              We're heavily skewed by players who are outside the 9-10 man rotation (i.e. Bruno, Delon, Van Vleet, Siakam, Poeltl, etc.). The heavy lifting is done by old guys, not young guys.

                              We're a "young" team on paper only, not in reality.
                              True. But if you're talking development and potential for the future, that counts. A very young bench, yet close to contending, with some of these guys (Delon, Poeltl and even Fred) actually logging important deep playoff minutes, which is more than what teams like Philly (non playoff), or the Cavs (tied for oldest in the league with the Clippers) can say.

                              A good balance between an experienced core and some up and coming guys with good potential. Not a terrible place to be.

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