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just how bad was the 2016_17 season

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  • Fully
    replied
    Axel wrote: View Post
    We still are come playoff time. Nobody respects this team and everyone believes that we are a favourable matchup.

    This seems way over the top. The list of teams with 3 or more playoff series wins in the last two seasons: Warriors, Cavs, Spurs and Raptors. That's it. Relax with the hyperbole.

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  • Fully
    replied
    Scraptor wrote: View Post
    One of the 5 youngest? We were the 15th youngest by weighted minutes played. ie. Our best players are older. They have also hit their ceilings so we will be getting older next year without getting growth out of them. We don't have a single blue chip prospect under 22 for the start of next season.
    Yes, we were tied for fifth in the league in terms of average age on our roster. With regards to the weighted minutes portion, you make it seem like being tied sixth in the league for wins while still flooring the 15th youngest team in the league is an indictment of some sort? How many other playoff teams ended up "younger" than the Raptors in terms of weighted minutes? Can't be more than 5 or 6, and I doubt more than one or two one a playoff series this offseason. We're not in a terrible spot age wise with our roster considering the strong correlation in the NBA between experience and winning. And how many good teams have blue chippers under the age of 22 by the way? Boston will be one in a month's time, but I can't really think of any others off the top of my head. Strong teams get low draft picks - that's kind of the entire crux of the draft system.


    We don't have plenty of assets either. We have Norman Powell and a collection of question marks. Our picks are all late first rounders with marginal value.
    Why isn't DeRozan considered an asset? A re-signed Lowry, Ibaka, Tucker or 2Pat? Jonas? Norm? Delon Wright or Poetl? I feel like you're falling into the pit where you assume that the opening night version of our roster in October will be locked in for the next 5 years. Maybe you trade one of those guys in the next year. Hell, maybe you trade them all. From where I'm sitting, we have one piece of dead weight on the roster (Carroll) and everyone else holds some type of value in a hypothetical trade. I don't foresee Masai handing out these contracts this summer and then putting his feet up until the deals run out.
    Last edited by Fully; Sun May 28, 2017, 01:32 PM.

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  • golden
    replied
    Scraptor wrote: View Post
    It's not about entitlement at all. It's about being realistic.

    At what point do you decide that what you're doing isn't working? Do we have to go seven years without making a Finals? Eight? Ten?

    No one expects guaranteed success. What people want is the hope of competing against the best. This year we made serious moves and still got absolutely wrecked. It seems utterly delusional to measure this season as a success and to put the blame on expectations.

    One reason the treadmill term exists is because as you are running in place other teams are getting better. In 3-5 years when Lebron, KD, and Curry are fading, the Wolves and the Sixers may be leapfrogging ahead of us.

    To compete in the NBA you need a superlative talent. If we had a legit superstar to retool around you wouldn't hear any tanking talk. But we just don't have that guy.

    Do I think we should rebuild? Probably not. But it shouldn't be ruled out with such derision. There is a chance that not even a new coach gives us the edge we need. If Masai takes a look at the roster and makes that assessment then a teardown is perfectly valid.

    But given that Casey seems to be coming back, it seems more likely that there is no imperative for real change when a 50-win season stretched out over most of the year will satisfy the fanbase, who seem to quickly forget about a couple weeks of playoff failure.
    That good old "treadmill" word popped up again a few times. A couple of old articles below on that beaten-to-death topic. Basic premise is that one strategy to become a legit contender is to stay on the high-end treadmill and be ready to pounce when an all-star shakes loose (e.g. Butler, George, etc...). I think that's what the Raps are trying to do. The biggest beef I have with Masai is that if you don't have Lebron, then you need a genius level coach (e.g. Pop, Carlisle, Stevens, etc...). Casey is a decent coach and a great representative of the organization, but I don't think I've ever heard anybody refer to him as a genius.

    http://wagesofwins.com/2012/03/26/wh...of-mediocrity/

    So the next time your team makes the playoffs and you hear someone say that next season they need to tank if they ever want to really compete? Well, if you really want to compete, you had better hope your front office doesn’t take this advice.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-...b_1382351.html

    But the draft is uncertain and it’s also quite possible the Blazers will find someone who won’t be “excellent.”

    But if you are close — like the Blazers were — your best bet is to find one or two more players that will get you into the promise land. Based on the data, giving away one of your most productive players for the hope of something better is simply not a very good strategy. And given what we see from the history of “excellent” teams, the Blazers — if they are reduced to a team that is not good enough to win 40 games in 2012-13 — are now that much further from finding excellence (and making Henry Abbott happy).

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  • 3inthekeon
    replied
    Axel wrote: View Post
    If we can barely beat teams that are worse than us, how are we still improving with a capped out roster and a core that isn't that young?
    The answer to this is: we're not, but it's still better than the alternatives.

    Leave a comment:


  • 3inthekeon
    replied
    Don't think this has been posted, but an outside observer's (Kevin Pelton) assessment of our young guys

    Question#peltonmailbag: Can you rank the Raptors young guys? Powell-Wright-Poeltl-Bebe -VanFleet..and yes Bruno. Any rotation pieces there?

    1. Norman Powell. Clearly the best player now, at a scarce position and an incredible bargain for next season at the minimum -- though a candidate to get paid in free agency in a year.

    2. Jakob Poeltl. Proved capable of playing rotation minutes in the playoffs at age 21. Biggest issue here is the abundance of capable centers in the league.

    3. Delon Wright. Could capably serve as a backup point guard next season. Will he get the opportunity? Valuable rookie contract years dwindling.

    4. Lucas Nogueira. Probably capable of playing backup minutes, but the fact that the coaching staff favored the younger Poeltl is a little concerning. Entering the last year of his rookie contract and not especially cheap at about $3 million.

    5. Pascal Siakam. Started 38 games as a rookie but still so unmemorable that you left him off your list. Needs to either prove he can protect the rim as a center or add an outside shot to be able to play power forward.

    6. Fred VanVleet. Ideal as a third point guard. Will run the offense and make a few shots, and won't hurt you while he's on the court.

    7. Bruno Caboclo. Has been unspectacular in the D-League, and despite still being just 21, he hasn't shown much in the way of upside. At best, I think he turns into a 3-and-D role player. And massively overpaid for next season at $2.5 million unless he unexpectedly pushes for playing time.
    Last edited by 3inthekeon; Sun May 28, 2017, 11:44 AM.

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  • Axel
    replied
    special1 wrote: View Post
    How'd that work out for the Pacers, Heat and Bucks (this year).

    It's funny that we only lost to the Cavs (the champions), in the last 2 playoffs.

    Who cares if other teams don't respect us, we still won vs everyone except the Cavs (in the last 2 playoffs).

    So that argument about no respect doesn't actually translate to them winning the series, it's pointless.
    If we can barely beat teams that are worse than us, how are we still improving with a capped out roster and a core that isn't that young?

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  • special1
    replied
    just how bad was the 2016_17 season

    Axel wrote: View Post
    We still are come playoff time. Nobody respects this team and everyone believes that we are a favourable matchup.
    How'd that work out for the Pacers, Heat and Bucks (this year).

    It's funny that we only lost to the Cavs (the champions), in the last 2 playoffs.

    Who cares if other teams don't respect us, we still won vs everyone except the Cavs (in the last 2 playoffs).

    So that argument about no respect doesn't actually translate to them winning the series, it's pointless.



    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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  • Axel
    replied
    special1 wrote: View Post
    You guys seem to be in a hurry to go back to the laughing stock days.
    We still are come playoff time. Nobody respects this team and everyone believes that we are a favourable matchup.

    Leave a comment:


  • special1
    replied
    just how bad was the 2016_17 season

    Scraptor wrote: View Post
    It's not about entitlement at all. It's about being realistic.

    At what point do you decide that what you're doing isn't working? Do we have to go seven years without making a Finals? Eight? Ten?

    No one expects guaranteed success. What people want is the hope of competing against the best. This year we made serious moves and still got absolutely wrecked. It seems utterly delusional to measure this season as a success and to put the blame on expectations.

    One reason the treadmill term exists is because as you are running in place other teams are getting better. In 3-5 years when Lebron, KD, and Curry are fading, the Wolves and the Sixers may be leapfrogging ahead of us.

    To compete in the NBA you need a superlative talent. If we had a legit superstar to retool around you wouldn't hear any tanking talk. But we just don't have that guy.

    Do I think we should rebuild? Probably not. But it shouldn't be ruled out with such derision. There is a chance that not even a new coach gives us the edge we need. If Masai takes a look at the roster and makes that assessment then a teardown is perfectly valid.

    But given that Casey seems to be coming back, it seems more likely that there is no imperative for real change when a 50-win season stretched out over most of the year will satisfy the fanbase, who seem to quickly forget about a couple weeks of playoff failure.
    If Masai wants to rebuild I'm fine with it. That would mean that he has an EXCELLENT plan in place and I would give him the benefit of the doubt for a little while.

    I just don't see it happening so I think those of us who don't see us taking that path are actually the ones being realistic.

    This team or that team MAY be better than us 5 years from now..... terrible argument.

    No thanks!

    I would rather stick with a 50+ win team and make adjustments. Maybe we'll get our lucky breaks via smart trades/late round gems/ free agent (Wiggins).

    You guys seem to be in a hurry to go back to the laughing stock days.

    How's that working out for the other tankers? Wasn't it said about 5 years ago that we were supposed to start seeing contention from tanking teams about now? Nothing so far. Promise, injuries and futility...... rinse and repeat.

    Then their best players become free agents (restricted or otherwise). Let's see if they can keep them..... that was always the kicker with me. Lose for 5+ years and then expect these kids to stick with you.... short thinking.



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    Last edited by special1; Sun May 28, 2017, 11:00 AM.

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  • Scraptor
    replied
    golden wrote: View Post
    Well said. I really don't understand this new generation. It's like if you can't 100% guarantee them success in something, then they automatically assume failure and don't even want to try their best and see where that takes them. Like somehow, to them, there's no honor in that.

    When I grew up, you always had your powerhouse teams that looked unbeatable, but that never stopped you from rooting for your own guys on your hometown team. And that never stopped your home team from trying to assemble the best possible roster they could. You tweaked your core, you made trades, you changed the coach. Upsets actually did happen from time-to-time, which made it even sweeter when David knocked off Goliath.

    Maybe it's the money at stake and social media that is pressuring guys like Lebron and Durant to feel like they have to stack the deck to 100% guarantee that they have a shot at winning it all. Who knows? Championships are great, but only 1 out of 30 teams can win it. So, if every team perfectly executed Philly's "proper rebuild" strategy, you could still be waiting 29 years for your turn to win it all. Following a sports team is supposed to be escapist entertainment, not prolonged torture and disappointment with persistent yearnings of "let's burn this all down to the ground".
    special1 wrote: View Post
    Well said. One word....entitlement.

    I feel like there's this "guarantee us a championship or blow it up talk" every year.

    When did 50+ wins and winning a playoff round or two make everyone so sad? There are 29 losers and only 1 winner at the end of it all, each year.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    It's not about entitlement at all. It's about being realistic.

    At what point do you decide that what you're doing isn't working? Do we have to go seven years without making a Finals? Eight? Ten?

    No one expects guaranteed success. What people want is the hope of competing against the best. This year we made serious moves and still got absolutely wrecked. It seems utterly delusional to measure this season as a success and to put the blame on expectations.

    One reason the treadmill term exists is because as you are running in place other teams are getting better. In 3-5 years when Lebron, KD, and Curry are fading, the Wolves and the Sixers may be leapfrogging ahead of us.

    To compete in the NBA you need a superlative talent. If we had a legit superstar to retool around you wouldn't hear any tanking talk. But we just don't have that guy.

    Do I think we should rebuild? Probably not. But it shouldn't be ruled out with such derision. There is a chance that not even a new coach gives us the edge we need. If Masai takes a look at the roster and makes that assessment then a teardown is perfectly valid.

    But given that Casey seems to be coming back, it seems more likely that there is no imperative for real change when a 50-win season stretched out over most of the year will satisfy the fanbase, who seem to quickly forget about a couple weeks of playoff failure.

    Leave a comment:


  • Scraptor
    replied
    Fully wrote: View Post
    I guess I'm less convinced of some of the things you've stated than you are. The Raptors still have one of the 5 youngest rosters in the league, and aren't handcuffed by any particularly bad deals aside from maybe Carroll. Yes, they will be in the tax after this season if they retain Lowry et al but that's not my money so I'm not really concerned about that, at least in the short term. Overall I think they're in a decent spot as a franchise where they're in the top third of the league but still have plenty of assets, youth and all of their draft assets intact.

    And I'm all for tweaking the roster, or changing the coach (this should be the Raptors first option) to try and get the current incarnation of this roster to the next level - I just don't buy that a rebuild should be looming because we've only been one of the 5 or 6 best teams in the league over the last few years. It's like we all forgot the first 20 years of this franchise ever happened.
    One of the 5 youngest? We were the 15th youngest by weighted minutes played. ie. Our best players are older. They have also hit their ceilings so we will be getting older next year without getting growth out of them. We don't have a single blue chip prospect under 22 for the start of next season.

    Being a tax team isn't about whether it's "our money" or not, it's about how it limits future moves and how it reflects the status of our contracts. I wouldn't care an ounce if our team salary was $200 million if we were an actual contender. But being a tax team is a danger sign that our contracts may start looking sour soon, especially given the ages of those involved. Carroll has already proven this. Lowry and Ibaka could be next.

    We don't have plenty of assets either. We have Norman Powell and a collection of question marks. Our picks are all late first rounders with marginal value.

    It's comforting to paint our position as rosy but CRF is right, we are at a major crossroads right now. If we get stuck as a tax team with limited avenues for improvement, we may simply be delaying the inevitable--by several years.

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  • Axel
    replied
    golden wrote: View Post
    Well said. I really don't understand this new generation. It's like if you can't 100% guarantee them success in something, then they automatically assume failure and don't even want to try their best and see where that takes them. Like somehow, to them, there's no honor in that.
    Not sure what generation you are referring to. We have a pretty broad spectrum of ages here, so hard to really single out any.

    I don't think it's about guaranteeing success (and the idea of entitlement is ridiculous) but every team wants to be improving and moving forwards. That's where the treadmill term originated, a team that isn't moving forwards and that's the concern with this current group. Our roster won't have many ways to significantly improve (low picks and no cap space) and it's hard to have much faith in the core suddenly playing better in the playoffs (especially with bringing Casey back).

    golden wrote: View Post
    When I grew up, you always had your powerhouse teams that looked unbeatable, but that never stopped you from rooting for your own guys on your hometown team. And that never stopped your home team from trying to assemble the best possible roster they could. You tweaked your core, you made trades, you changed the coach.
    We've done two of three without much difference - but as long as Casey is the coach, there will be many who believe we aren't going to be better.

    golden wrote: View Post
    Upsets actually did happen from time-to-time, which made it even sweeter when David knocked off Goliath.
    Upsets have always been more rare in NBA compared to other sports. And we should be thankful for that since the way we haven't been able to really take care of business vs lower seeds.

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  • special1
    replied
    just how bad was the 2016_17 season

    golden wrote: View Post
    Well said. I really don't understand this new generation. It's like if you can't 100% guarantee them success in something, then they automatically assume failure and don't even want to try their best and see where that takes them. Like somehow, to them, there's no honor in that.

    When I grew up, you always had your powerhouse teams that looked unbeatable, but that never stopped you from rooting for your own guys on your hometown team. And that never stopped your home team from trying to assemble the best possible roster they could. You tweaked your core, you made trades, you changed the coach. Upsets actually did happen from time-to-time, which made it even sweeter when David knocked off Goliath.

    Maybe it's the money at stake and social media that is pressuring guys like Lebron and Durant to feel like they have to stack the deck to 100% guarantee that they have a shot at winning it all. Who knows? Championships are great, but only 1 out of 30 teams can win it. So, if every team perfectly executed Philly's "proper rebuild" strategy, you could still be waiting 29 years for your turn to win it all. Following a sports team is supposed to be escapist entertainment, not prolonged torture and disappointment with persistent yearnings of "let's burn this all down to the ground".

    Well said. One word....entitlement.

    I feel like there's this "guarantee us a championship or blow it up talk" every year.

    When did 50+ wins and winning a playoff round or two make everyone so sad? There are 29 losers and only 1 winner at the end of it all, each year.


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    Last edited by special1; Sat May 27, 2017, 12:15 AM.

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  • golden
    replied
    Fully wrote: View Post
    Everyone not named the Warriors or Cavs has proven themselves to be outside of the contender tier during the last three seasons though. Spurs, Raptors, Clippers, Rockets, Hawks, Celtics, Grizzlies, etc. They've all reeled off good regular seasons over the last three seasons and none of them have been anywhere near a title. Kind of a unique situation the NBA has found themselves right now where you can be the clear cut, third best team in the league and still have next to no chance at even making the Finals.

    And I'm not saying that we should just accept being a second or third round out in the playoffs year after year, and that the team shouldn't work feverishly to somehow break into that next echelon, I'm just wondering where we draw the line with the "not a true contender so might as well retool the roster" stuff... Should Houston break it up? Clippers? Spurs? Wizards? How long do we give a team like the Jazz to become a "legit threat" for the title before they should scrap it? One or two more years?

    I used to think the term "treadmill team" was reserved for those franchises spinning their wheels over a 4 or 5 year span just to try and get a bottom seed in the playoffs - but now I feel like it means any team that goes a few seasons without vying for the title. However in the current NBA climate that means every team from 3rd in the league on down.
    Well said. I really don't understand this new generation. It's like if you can't 100% guarantee them success in something, then they automatically assume failure and don't even want to try their best and see where that takes them. Like somehow, to them, there's no honor in that.

    When I grew up, you always had your powerhouse teams that looked unbeatable, but that never stopped you from rooting for your own guys on your hometown team. And that never stopped your home team from trying to assemble the best possible roster they could. You tweaked your core, you made trades, you changed the coach. Upsets actually did happen from time-to-time, which made it even sweeter when David knocked off Goliath.

    Maybe it's the money at stake and social media that is pressuring guys like Lebron and Durant to feel like they have to stack the deck to 100% guarantee that they have a shot at winning it all. Who knows? Championships are great, but only 1 out of 30 teams can win it. So, if every team perfectly executed Philly's "proper rebuild" strategy, you could still be waiting 29 years for your turn to win it all. Following a sports team is supposed to be escapist entertainment, not prolonged torture and disappointment with persistent yearnings of "let's burn this all down to the ground".

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  • Fully
    replied
    CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    All that doesn't exactly inspire confidence that this team is poised to show any sign of improvement in the next season or two, so the question is do you wait to retool until the decision is made for you (ie: Lowry chooses to leave, Casey's contract is up, etc...), or do you proactively make a move now in order to have the improvements come to fruition as the Cavs/Warriors dominance window is closing a couple seasons from now?
    I guess I'm less convinced of some of the things you've stated than you are. The Raptors still have one of the 5 youngest rosters in the league, and aren't handcuffed by any particularly bad deals aside from maybe Carroll. Yes, they will be in the tax after this season if they retain Lowry et al but that's not my money so I'm not really concerned about that, at least in the short term. Overall I think they're in a decent spot as a franchise where they're in the top third of the league but still have plenty of assets, youth and all of their draft assets intact.

    And I'm all for tweaking the roster, or changing the coach (this should be the Raptors first option) to try and get the current incarnation of this roster to the next level - I just don't buy that a rebuild should be looming because we've only been one of the 5 or 6 best teams in the league over the last few years. It's like we all forgot the first 20 years of this franchise ever happened.

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