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Open shots and cheap shots

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  • #16
    BrieflySpeaking wrote: View Post
    I noticed a poster in another thread being amused by this quote

    So, what is that all about? A percentage is just a matter of counting up makes and misses. How did "feelings" get involved? It makes you wonder whether all the talk about Patterson's inconsistency is real or if is just based on a "feeling"?

    Patrick Patterson: 3P% by Year
    Code:
    Year		Patterson	League Average
    2014-15		   .371		    .350
    2015-16		   .362		    .354
    2016-17		   .372		    .358
    Patterson has shot about ten or twenty points better than the league three-point average each season. His worst year since joining the Raptors is .362. The Raptors other three-point shooters have all had much worse seasons over that period Carroll (.341), Lowry (.338), Ibaka (.326), Tucker(.330), Powell (.324), Joseph (.273.)

    There is really no question that Patterson has been a very consistent three-point shooter from year-to-year. But, maybe he was up and down during the season? It seemed like the complaints got louder as the year wore on.

    Patrick Patterson: 3P% by Month
    Code:
    Oct-Nov		.329
    Dec		.407
    Jan		.400
    Feb		.263 (injured, based on 19 shots)
    Mar		.404
    Apr		.429
    Nope, other than a cool start and a blip when returning from injury, Patterson shot over .400 every month. He was the only Raptor to shoot over 40% from downtown in four different months.

    Did he have some really bad individual games? Not really, looking through Patterson's game log, the worst three-point outing I see is 0-for-4. Lots of Raptors had worse games than that.

    Bad down the stretch? Definitely not. Patterson always shoots 3-pointers better late in the game. He has shot a higher percentage than Lowry in the 4th quarter every year.

    Patrick Patterson: 4th Quarter 3P%
    Code:
    2014-15			.415
    2015-16			.420
    2016-17			.446
    So, where do the claims about inconsistency come from?



    Missing Open Shots

    How many times after Pat missed an open three-pointer did we hear Jack Armstrong whine "Patterson's got to hit those open looks!"

    The trouble with this statement is that it's ridiculous -- you can't expect anyone to automatically make a particular three-point shot. You might as well complain that Steph Curry is inconsistent because he misses most of his open threes. I mean you will be right most of the time but...

    The facts are that league as a whole shot .381 on "wide open" three-point attempts, while Patterson shot .392.

    So what is all the whining about? Patterson actually makes far more than his share of open looks. Always has. In his previous seasons with the Raptors he shot .420, .403 and .463 on "wide open" threes. That's his game. He's a new-era, three-and-D, spread-the-floor shooter. The kind of player that impacts the score of games far more than his individual stats suggest.

    It's understandable that TV analysts want to come up with "insights" even when they don't actually have any. But, criticizing a particular player, on air, every time he misses an open three-pointer is a really cheap shot. It sets up an expectation which nobody can possibly live up to. And once the rest of the media joined in, it was inevitable that fans would end up believing Patterson was hopelessly inconsistent.

    Which is too bad, because Patterson deserved better. In the Raptor's best seasons to date, Pat has been a real difference maker. A big part of a bench that was the key to winning many games. A stalwart in fourth quarters on both ends of the court. His confidence certainly appeared to waver at times this season (maybe partly due to injury, maybe partly due to inconsistent touches, maybe partly due to the media hatchet job) But, to Pat's credit, his actual shot-making remained consistent.
    So what you're telling me is that he is average. I'll pass on an that, thank you

    Comment


    • #17
      CalibreMC wrote: View Post
      So what you're telling me is that he is average. I'll pass on an that, thank you
      Above average. On a team where 3-point shooting is/was critical, to the point where we were desperate for PP to be ultra-elite.

      Comment


      • #18
        DanH wrote: View Post
        I'm kind of hoping that as much hot air as the style change has been, if it results in one thing, I hope it's that our role players stop hesitating when open from the arc. Let it fly gents. If you are even a little open, let it fly.
        Easy fix for that. Call more plays for shooters as a first option, so they are prepared and in rhythm. We say this every year.

        Again, it's something we can't actually understand since we aren't in the shoes of shooters playing at NBA speed. Personally, I don't believe all open shots are created equally, no matter how easy it looks to people sitting on the couch watching on TV. Defenders are quicker, longer and smarter than ever before. Role players can't shoot like Steph Curry - they need to know where & when they are getting they're shots. Raps system is highly unpredictable, by design, for shooters and Lowry & DD are below average in terms of developing a passing chemistry with teammates, other than each other.

        And it really does comes down to them, since they have the freedom to call plays on offense. Are they going to mix it up more often and on a regular basis during the regular season - which also applies to getting JV involved as a first option? Ball movement was a key issue/problem that Masai spoke about as part of the culture reset, but I'm still skeptical with Lowry/DD/Casey all returning. The habits are ingrained pretty deep and when push comes to shove, they will probably once again revert to what has worked in the past to win games during the regular season.

        Comment


        • #19
          Mapko wrote: View Post
          I'm not sure this last Cle series is a much of an indicator.
          Lets face, if 2Pat makes 100% of his 3pt attempts & even if he makes every 3 he gets to shoot, but passes, we still lose by double digits.
          I do not have figure to back it up, but Cavs 3pt percentage has to among the highest in that series ever.
          I felt that if they threw up shit, it would have gone in.
          That is true. The point of bringing up the cavs series was not say that 2pat could've turned the tide there. No player alone could have. The point was to contrast how both teams approached the 3-line as two extremes: They were throwing highly contested bricks up sometimes ,and half of them to their luck would still go in; whereas we (particularly 2pat) were very timid/conservative with the attempts, passing up open shots you could clearly see that if it was CLE on the offense, they would always take it.

          You won't make it if you don't shoot it, that was the contrast, not his shooting %. But as far as conversion, yeah, the ones he chose to attempt were ok percentage-wise.

          Comment


          • #20
            I like the stats posted but Patterson to me was a guy who was out there for his defense and shooting. Can we see some stats on how he compares to the rest of the league's stretch 4's? Being ahead of the league average is one thing I would expect, but he needed to be above league average amongst players who are essentially rostered for the sole purpose of being great for spacing and stretching defenses ie: a legitimate 3 pt threat. Was he? I suspect he wasn't which is why he was so deep inside the doghouse for most of the year and throughout the playoffs.
            your pal,
            ebrian

            Comment


            • #21
              ebrian wrote: View Post
              I like the stats posted but Patterson to me was a guy who was out there for his defense and shooting. Can we see some stats on how he compares to the rest of the league's stretch 4's? Being ahead of the league average is one thing I would expect, but he needed to be above league average amongst players who are essentially rostered for the sole purpose of being great for spacing and stretching defenses ie: a legitimate 3 pt threat. Was he? I suspect he wasn't which is why he was so deep inside the doghouse for most of the year and throughout the playoffs.
              I don't have the detailed breakdowns above, but...

              Among the top 50 (in 3PA, Pat ranks 38th) forwards taller than 6'7", 30 of them have a worse 3PT% than Pat, one is tied with him, and 18 have a better percentage. So, he's at roughly the 60th percentile among shooting big men (and frankly, a bunch of SF's get caught in that filter, nevermind players who don't defend as well as him). The very definition of an above average big shooter.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

              Comment


              • #22
                S.R. wrote: View Post
                Yes. This team has not had a 3 pt gunner without a conscience - ever?

                To further golden's point, the Raps have had a solid 3PT% with low attempts for a while, which could suggest they take good shots and avoid questionable ones, to a fault.

                One thing the NBA has now established is that it's always a good idea for a good 3 point shooter to let 'er fly. Toronto's 3 pt role players the last while like Ross, Patterson, etc. often have appeared hesitant in-game.
                Kapono, Curry and Tracy Murry come to mind.

                And if you're feeling generous, Brady Heslip.

                Comment


                • #23
                  BrieflySpeaking wrote: View Post
                  I noticed a poster in another thread being amused by this quote

                  So, what is that all about? A percentage is just a matter of counting up makes and misses. How did "feelings" get involved? It makes you wonder whether all the talk about Patterson's inconsistency is real or if is just based on a "feeling"?
                  Patterson in the playoffs:

                  2015-16: 1.1-3.5 = .300
                  51% of all his shots were threes.
                  49% of his threes were corner threes. He shot .176 on just those.
                  2016-17: 0.8-2.6 = .308
                  72% of all his shots were threes.
                  77% of his threes were corner threes. He shot .300 on just those.

                  All stats posted with feeling.
                  Two beer away from being two beers away.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Nilanka wrote: View Post
                    Kapono, Curry and Tracy Murry come to mind.

                    And if you're feeling generous, Brady Heslip.
                    Walt Williams baby! I like Murray a lot. Hubert Davis.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Mess wrote: View Post
                      Patterson in the playoffs:

                      2015-16: 1.1-3.5 = .300
                      51% of all his shots were threes.
                      49% of his threes were corner threes. He shot .176 on just those.
                      2016-17: 0.8-2.6 = .308
                      72% of all his shots were threes.
                      77% of his threes were corner threes. He shot .300 on just those.

                      All stats posted with feeling.
                      Yeah, and he shot 39% and 47% from three in their first two years in the playoffs.

                      It's mostly just small sample size variance. It happens to every shooter. And it doesn't help that the Raptors have generally sucked at getting good looks when teams blitz them in the playoffs. Heck... DeRozan 7%. Ibaka 31%. Lowry 34%. Carroll 31%. All dramatically down in the playoffs. At what point do we assume all our players are unclutch, and at what point do we think there might be an issue with the system and team overall instead? Pat's playoff shooting has generally been in family with the rest of the team's playoff shooting woes.
                      twitter.com/dhackett1565

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        DanH wrote: View Post
                        Yeah, and he shot 39% and 47% from three in their first two years in the playoffs.

                        It's mostly just small sample size variance. It happens to every shooter. And it doesn't help that the Raptors have generally sucked at getting good looks when teams blitz them in the playoffs. Heck... DeRozan 7%. Ibaka 31%. Lowry 34%. Carroll 31%. All dramatically down in the playoffs. At what point do we assume all our players are unclutch, and at what point do we think there might be an issue with the system and team overall instead? Pat's playoff shooting has generally been in family with the rest of the team's playoff shooting woes.
                        Casey. As we all know.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          DanH wrote: View Post
                          Yeah, and he shot 39% and 47% from three in their first two years in the playoffs.

                          It's mostly just small sample size variance. It happens to every shooter. And it doesn't help that the Raptors have generally sucked at getting good looks when teams blitz them in the playoffs. Heck... DeRozan 7%. Ibaka 31%. Lowry 34%. Carroll 31%. All dramatically down in the playoffs. At what point do we assume all our players are unclutch, and at what point do we think there might be an issue with the system and team overall instead? Pat's playoff shooting has generally been in family with the rest of the team's playoff shooting woes.
                          Yeah but those small, more recent sample sizes are why it seems that PP never hits an open shot - which is precisely why this thread was created and why he posted all those stats to prove that sentiment as being false. Playoffs make more of an impression on fans I'd say and most don't care to rationalize the cause of it. They'll just say he shot like a bum.

                          The fact that he shot great his first two years as a Raptor in their first round losses is mostly long forgotten and/or unimportant.
                          Two beer away from being two beers away.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            His stats were rigged

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