Evolution of the Game. Trends and How It Relates to Raptors and How To Stay Ahead of the Curve

[MixxAOR]

So after reading a couple of articles I just wanted to start a thread about where do you see the game going. Can we predict how the game will change? Do we counter it (aka zig while everyone zags) or do we try to catch up and adjust?

The new era of the NBA requires versatility to win, and the Boston Celtics are adjusting.

"I don’t have the five positions anymore," Celtics coach Brad Stevens said, per Kareem Copeland of the Associated Press. "It may be as simple as three positions now, where you’re either a ball-handler, a wing or a big.

"It's really important. We've become more versatile as the years have gone on."

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...-positions-now

However, in the playoffs the Thunder and the Cavaliers were able to find a defensive strategy that countered the Warriors’ small ball strategy and might be a recipe for other teams to defend small ball line-ups. Their defensive strategy included switching everything and blanketing the Warriors shooters’ thereby forcing them to beat the Cavs off the dribble. Even though this strategy created a lot of mismatches that favored the Warriors, it took them away from their ball movement offense and forced them to go to a more one on one based offense and to try to take advantage of mismatches.

During the next season I think that we’ll see an even greater increase in switching on defense throughout the league after teams saw Cleveland’s success. Teams will realize that the best way to guard small ball lineups and even some traditional line-ups is with switching.

http://www.isportsweb.com/2016/08/01...e-nba-defense/

With an increased number of teams switching screens on defense it will be interesting to see if teams will go back to more traditional offensive lineups with two big guys to take advantage of mismatches or if coaches will stick to spreading the floor with as much shooting as possible.

Could this mean having elite ISO and Post Up players will become a premium if everyone moves to switching defense?

[golden]

So after reading a couple of articles I just wanted to start a thread about where do you see the game going. Can we predict how the game will change? Do we counter it (aka zig while everyone zags) or do we try to catch up and adjust?




http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...-positions-now





http://www.isportsweb.com/2016/08/01...e-nba-defense/




Could this mean having elite ISO and Post Up players will become a premium if everyone moves to switching defense?

Those players are only at a premium if they show they can be successful playing both styles.

[Mess]

One thing I know for sure is I'd rather not watch basketball games where each team is chucking up 40 threes. No matter what the analytics say I can't see the trend/curve going that extreme. Some other team will make a new trend/curve out of necessity/utilization of their resources.

You might have been seeing the beginnings of that with how the Spurs defended the Rockets. Once you know the two spots a team wants their shots from, you engineer the defense against it. Of course a team like GS has so much unique, synergistic high-level talent I think it's not accurate to label it a trend. There's not much you can do to catch up to that.

[MixxAOR]

Those players are only at a premium if they show they can be successful playing both styles.

Yeah defensively and offensively they need to be able to play both styles. Raptors have none of those players. But Masai is building something like this based on who he drafts.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

A good coach, with the right team, should always be able to find an effective way to exploit positive mismatches, while minimizing the impact of negative mismatches. It would be easy if you had a lineup of 5 LBJs, Scotty Pippens, or Anthony Davis, but that's highly improbable.

Positionless basketball, or even reduced number of positions (per Stevens), is good in theory, but hard to implement effectively.

You'll never defeat an opponent by trying to do the same thing less effectively. If the Raptors think they can be successful emulating the GS model with Lowry as Curry, DeRozan as Thompson, Miles as Durant, and Ibaka as Green (at least JV is better than Zaza)... well then all I can say is I look forward to what the next Raptors head coach will bring to the table.

[KHD]

if zaza hadn't done a tonya harding on Kawhi, people might be singing the praises of slow-it-down basketball right now.

Personally i hate the direction the league is going. the 3 is worth way too much for the difficulty.

[Demographic Shift]

So after reading a couple of articles I just wanted to start a thread about where do you see the game going. Can we predict how the game will change? Do we counter it (aka zig while everyone zags) or do we try to catch up


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...-positions-now





http://www.isportsweb.com/2016/08/01...e-nba-defense/




Could this mean having elite ISO and Post Up players will become a premium if everyone moves to switching defense?

Great thread idea!!!!

I am a big believer in the cyclical nature of sports.
In a copy cat league like the NBA ..pretty much all conventional wisdom is now all in on what was laughed at as Nellie Ball in the 90's and now is called small ball or position-less ball. Certain types of players have been drafted to play this style of ball...but....the pool of talent goes only so deep. Things do turn around as the only constant is change.

When you don't have the matching talent to go one on one in a certain style of game..rather than get your brains beat out trying to beat them at their own game....you change how the game gets played....

As the Monty Python sketch goes...Big boy bball isn't dead..it's just resting.

For how long? Guessing less than 3 years.

[MixxAOR]

if zaza hadn't done a tonya harding on Kawhi, people might be singing the praises of slow-it-down basketball right now.

Personally i hate the direction the league is going. the 3 is worth way too much for the difficulty.

Well Spurs probably would've taken that Game 1 but can't say for sure if they would've won the series.

As far as 3 goes I think they should decrease the diameter of the hoop, make it tougher.

[KHD]

Well Spurs probably would've taken that Game 1 but can't say for sure if they would've won the series.

As far as 3 goes I think they should decrease the diameter of the hoop, make it tougher.

no maybe not but they were possibly going to be the only team to give GSW any kind of difficulty whatsoever.

[KHD]

Great thread idea!!!!

I am a big believer in the cyclical nature of sports.
In a copy cat league like the NBA ..pretty much all conventional wisdom is now all in on what was laughed at as Nellie Ball in the 90's and now is called small ball or position-less ball. Certain types of players have been drafted to play this style of ball...but....the pool of talent goes only so deep. Things do turn around as the only constant is change.

When you don't have the matching talent to go one on one in a certain style of game..rather than get your brains beat out trying to beat them at their own game....you change how the game gets played....

As the Monty Python sketch goes...Big boy bball isn't dead..it's just resting.

For how long? Guessing less than 3 years.

The historically great post players would be even more dominant in today's league than they were in their time. Imagine prime Duncan posting up a stretch 4 30 times a game. Hilarity.

The problem right now is that those type of guys are being taught to change.

[MixxAOR]

I don't think Post Up is dying off. I just think position that we associate with post up is going to change. Back in the day when we think post up we thought Centers and Power Forwards but now I think it's gonna be used heavily by wing players. Lebron, KD, Kawhi all use post up effectively.

[3inthekeon]

Ben Falk has a similar take as the isports writer about attacking the mismatch with ISO.

The announcers on TV exhort the players to attack the mismatch, the offense stops moving, spaces out and everyone watches one player go to work. It’s as if the game was suddenly teleported to the 1990s and isolation basketball is back in style.

And this is where switching becomes a little more complicated to evaluate, because it’s not actually clear that this is efficient offense. Both of these things can be true: after a switch the offense has more of an advantage than it did when the possession started, and attacking that mismatch one-on-one may actually be worse for the offense than if it had never gotten the switch at all. By switching, defenses can lure offenses into playing against their own self-interest: the mismatch is a bright light teams are irresistibly drawn towards, even if that light may turn out to be a bug-zapper.

https://cleaningtheglass.com/flipping-the-switch/

[Mess]

The historically great post players would be even more dominant in today's league than they were in their time. Imagine prime Duncan posting up a stretch 4 30 times a game. Hilarity.

The problem right now is that those type of guys are being taught to change.

Yeah...and imagine Robinson shooting 3's and switching to guard 1 through 5.

[MixxAOR]

When thinking about old school players it reminded me what Isiah Thomas said about Magic Johnson. In today's game he would be a centre and not a point guard. At 28:25

[Mess]

Meh...the greatest players don't fit into molds. In any era would Barkley be a shooting guard?