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Predicting the Raptors' 2017-18 Win Total

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  • DanH
    replied
    So, I've updated this prediction based on all the moves over the summer.

    East W L | West W L
    CLE 53 29 | GSW 68 14
    TOR 52 30 | HOU 62 20
    CHO 49 33 | LAC 58 24
    BOS 48 34 | SAS 57 25
    MIA 44 38 | OKC 55 27
    WAS 43 39 | UTA 50 32
    MIL 41 41 | MIN 48 34
    DET 32 50 | NOP 47 35
    NYK 30 52 | DEN 44 38
    IND 30 52 | MEM 42 40
    PHI 29 53 | POR 36 46
    ATL 27 55 | DAL 36 46
    CHI 24 58 | SAC 32 50
    ORL 24 58 | PHO 23 59
    BRK 22 60 | LAL 23 59

    And worked backwards to get projected ORTG and DRTG (these I just assumed a league average ORTG of 106, and used the predicted point margin such that half went to offence and half went to defence). It's very rough, but it's what I'll use for game by game predictions for the first 22 games of the year.

    East ORTG DRTG | West ORTG DRTG
    CLE 108.2 103.8 | GSW 111.8 100.2
    TOR 108.0 104.0 | HOU 110.1 101.9
    CHO 107.5 104.5 | LAC 109.2 102.8
    BOS 107.3 104.7 | SAS 109.0 103.0
    MIA 106.5 105.5 | OKC 108.6 103.4
    WAS 106.4 105.6 | UTA 107.6 104.4
    MIL 106.0 106.0 | MIN 107.3 104.7
    DET 104.4 107.6 | NOP 107.1 104.9
    NYK 104.0 108.0 | DEN 106.5 105.5
    IND 104.0 108.0 | MEM 106.2 105.8
    PHI 103.8 108.2 | POR 105.1 106.9
    ATL 103.4 108.6 | DAL 105.1 106.9
    CHI 102.8 109.2 | SAC 104.4 107.6
    ORL 102.8 109.2 | PHO 102.6 109.4
    BRK 102.3 109.7 | LAL 102.6 109.4

    Leave a comment:


  • Mapko
    replied
    ebrian wrote: View Post
    It's not that the regular season is useless; still have to make the playoffs. Home court is vital for some, but not for all. I think that's the point people are trying to make. If we had 4 games in a row at home against the Cavs last May, we still lose the series.
    Any other teams?
    So we are 2nd best in East?
    Im OK with that.

    Leave a comment:


  • The Great One
    replied
    If DeRozan and Lowry stay healthy they're going to win 50+ games.

    Next year's prediction - 54

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  • SkywalkerAC
    replied
    53

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  • Demographic Shift
    replied
    Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
    If we didn't have homecourt against the Bucks I'd bet we lose that series.

    Homecourt advantage is absolutely critical for this team. Not getting the 1st or 2nd seed means next to no chance of the conference finals.
    And yet .... 2 of the four wins against the deer came on the Bucks home floor...sequencing may have been different but the Raps prevail either way.....

    agree that home court means more in the NBA than in other leagues especially when the teams are more evenly matched in the later rounds..

    Leave a comment:


  • Shaolin Fantastic
    replied
    ebrian wrote: View Post
    It's not that the regular season is useless; still have to make the playoffs. Home court is vital for some, but not for all. I think that's the point people are trying to make. If we had 4 games in a row at home against the Cavs last May, we still lose the series.
    If we didn't have homecourt against the Bucks I'd bet we lose that series.

    Homecourt advantage is absolutely critical for this team. Not getting the 1st or 2nd seed means next to no chance of the conference finals.

    Leave a comment:


  • ebrian
    replied
    MixxAOR wrote: View Post
    Let's not underrate regular season. I'm starting to see this more and more. People acting like regular season ain't shit and 30 win teams are out there going to finals or some shit. Going into playoffs with home court advantage has been vital for this team.
    It's not that the regular season is useless; still have to make the playoffs. Home court is vital for some, but not for all. I think that's the point people are trying to make. If we had 4 games in a row at home against the Cavs last May, we still lose the series.

    Leave a comment:


  • MixxAOR
    replied
    Let's not underrate regular season. I'm starting to see this more and more. People acting like regular season ain't shit and 30 win teams are out there going to finals or some shit. Going into playoffs with home court advantage has been vital for this team.

    Leave a comment:


  • Scraptor
    replied
    Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
    It's another 50+ win season for coach Casey and the boys.

    Sent from my LG-H831 using Tapatalk
    If championships were based on regular season success we'd be crushing it.

    Leave a comment:


  • tDotted
    replied
    BrieflySpeaking wrote: View Post

    The Raptors have been a good team for a few years, but I don't think management has a clue why.
    Lowry, DeRozan

    Leave a comment:


  • BrieflySpeaking
    replied
    Or, perhaps making adjustments for aging etc is correct, Kevin's estimates are actually superior and the results over a tiny sample are meaningless.

    I have the Raptors most likely win total continuing to slide downward with the confidence relatively high. Key players are past their peaks, younger talent is very marginal and really bad off-season moves

    The Raptors have been a good team for a few years, but I don't think management has a clue why. They're committed for two or three years, but then it's time for a reboot from top down

    Leave a comment:


  • ebrian
    replied
    I think another thing that often underestimates the Raptors is DeRozan. I don't know if it necessarily factors into RPM specifically, but DeRozan continues to defy most advanced metrics (and to be honest, myself personally) by playing in a such way that shouldn't work but does.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    ebrian wrote: View Post
    First off, while I've never been much of a Blake Griffin fan (I think he's overrated), I think Clipper Nation are going to be pleasantly surprised by Patrick Beverley's ability to run a team and play big minutes. Obviously he's no Chris Paul but he's a real time player.

    I read that article by Kevin Pelton and felt very underwhelmed. Just in his write-ups alone there are so many outliers that all he proves is that RPM is no good for predicting wins, at least not alone. So many times he would say "this team won XX games, well below/above what RPM they finished with". I think Boston was 5 wins above, and Minnesota 7 games below? That's a horrible margin for error.. I'm not saying they should have a crystal ball, but with all the resources ESPN guys have to work with, all I can say is damn amazing work by @DanH.
    Thanks!

    All I'll say to this is that ESPN does a lot of complicated stuff to try to predict player impact - they use a special formula using multiple years of player's minutes patterns to guess at their upcoming ones, they use aging curves to project improvements and declines in players at various stages of their careers, they use projection metrics for incoming rookies based on historical data - and all of it, if you look at the statistical reliability, is essentially like throwing crap against the wall and seeing what sticks. It's not an issue with RPM per se - my model using RPM has the Raptors a near-50 win team. It's all the other stuff they do to try to predict what will change from last year to this one. My approach is simpler in that I only fix a team's total minutes based on added or removed players - otherwise, I assume no change at all from the prior season. It's inherently wrong. The intentions of the ESPN projection system are more honest - they are trying to account for actual changes that, on average, tend to be born out. But in specific cases (like Lowry of late, the main reason they keep underpredicting the Raptors - he's on the wrong end of the age curve but just keeps getting better), their adjustments go in entirely the wrong direction compared to reality and it throws the whole system off.

    While in my case, I just assume all those adjustments will wash out for each team - which is inherently dishonest, that won't happen, but it's also more stable, and the variance from a simple assumption like that to reality might be a little greater in the aggregate, but there will be fewer outlier cases where the projections are wildly off. Obviously there are cases of players taking unpredictable leaps, or having injuries you wouldn't expect, or just a team suddenly gelling (or not) and going way off track, or trades, that no approach can account for. But by trying to account for as many trees as possible, it seems like some of these projections like ESPN's attempts, tend to miss out on the forest.

    Leave a comment:


  • ebrian
    replied
    First off, while I've never been much of a Blake Griffin fan (I think he's overrated), I think Clipper Nation are going to be pleasantly surprised by Patrick Beverley's ability to run a team and play big minutes. Obviously he's no Chris Paul but he's a real time player.

    I read that article by Kevin Pelton and felt very underwhelmed. Just in his write-ups alone there are so many outliers that all he proves is that RPM is no good for predicting wins, at least not alone. So many times he would say "this team won XX games, well below/above what RPM they finished with". I think Boston was 5 wins above, and Minnesota 7 games below? That's a horrible margin for error.. I'm not saying they should have a crystal ball, but with all the resources ESPN guys have to work with, all I can say is damn amazing work by @DanH.

    Leave a comment:


  • Chr1s1anL
    replied
    It's another 50+ win season for coach Casey and the boys.

    Sent from my LG-H831 using Tapatalk

    Leave a comment:

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