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Predicting the Raptors' 2017-18 Win Total

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  • KeonClark
    replied
    I remember you did this last year. I'd be curious to find the link to last year's results and see how close it came!

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Maury wrote: View Post
    And I'm surprised Boston's wins are so high. Here's a question for you Dan, how do these calculations value the addition of a rookie? Do they have an impact on the team's results at all, and if so how do you incorporate them into your calculations? I'd be interested to know.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Rookies are not included at all, as they have 0 minutes played the prior season, so are given 0 MPG this season too.

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  • Maury
    replied
    And I'm surprised Boston's wins are so high. Here's a question for you Dan, how do these calculations value the addition of a rookie? Do they have an impact on the team's results at all, and if so how do you incorporate them into your calculations? I'd be interested to know.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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  • Maury
    replied
    Nuggets are gonna be a 4 or 5 seed. I absolutely love their team and I think Jamal Murray, Garry Harris and Nikola Jokic are all ready to make big jumps. Paul Milsap fits perfectly for them (as he would on almost any team). Obviously these jumps would not be shown or your calculations, which is fine, but my big prediction is denver surprises a lot of people.


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  • Scraptor
    replied
    Awesome job! Only issue I can see with the Raps is that it's doubtful Jonas + Bebe + Jakob will play 3770 minutes.... That would be 46mpg for 82 games. Casey will be too tempted by Ibaka not to go small more than that. But I get that you don't want to out your own projections in there for rotations.

    Leave a comment:


  • Nilanka
    replied
    2 things that jump out at me:

    1. The Cavs fall from grace.
    2. The Knicks making the playoffs with 33 wins, lol.

    Man, there will be a lot of terrible teams in the East.

    Edit: Hoping the Pelicans falter, in the off chance that Davis requests a trade

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    started a topic Predicting the Raptors' 2017-18 Win Total

    Predicting the Raptors' 2017-18 Win Total

    Hey all

    I just posted an article on Raps HQ with my annual statistical projection for the Raptors, plus projections for every team in the league. Feel free to go read it in full for a more detailed explanation of the process, but I'll put all the necessary info here anyway.

    https://www.raptorshq.com/2017/8/1/1...ns-projections

    The process is much the same as most years I do this, with a couple of tweaks. The goal, as ever, is to build this up with as little manual modification as possible - so none of my own opinion on rotations, minutes, roster construction comes into play at all. Player usage on each team is completely controlled by their minutes last year. And no assumptions are made on my part in terms of age decline, or young players getting better. Everyone is assumed to be the same player as last year, with the same usage, with only their minutes increased or decreased based on the team around them adding or removing high minutes players from last year.

    1) Pull 2016-17 data for every player in league: total minutes played, WS/48, BPM, RPM
    2) Compile team rosters (as of July 26th in this case) and check team minutes total against 19,800 (5x48x82).
    3) Pro-rate player minutes to get correct minutes total for each team. Individual player cap at 3000 MP.
    4) Multiply MP x WS/48 then divide by 48 to get total WS for each player.
    5) Sum player WS's for each team to get team WS total.
    6) Multiply BPM by MP for each player, divide by team MP, sum all player values for team average BPM.
    7) Same for RPM.
    8) Use pythagorean wins calculation using BPMx5 (and RPMx5) as point differential.
    9) Calculate average win total for the entire league, adjust all teams up or down to ensure 41 win average.
    10) Profit!

    This results in 3 win predictions for each team. I'll present the Raptors in detail, and for league standings will use an average win total for each team with the three results equally weighted.

    So, here is the individual player data for the Raptors.



    Those numbers result in win predictions of 56 wins (by WS), 52 wins (by BPM), and 49 wins (by RPM).

    As for the league as a whole:



    Some of that seems right, other bits are somewhat whacky. I've got explanations for some outliers (Cavs in particular) in the piece, if you are interested. Or we can just discuss them here.

    My big takeaways - if the Cavs do implode because of Kyrie, the Raptors seem as poised as anyone in the East to jump in to fill the void. And the East is awful - with 12 of the 15 West teams projected to finish with a better record than the 8th seed Knicks - and the Kings are soooo close to making it 13 of 15.
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