Predicting the Raptors' 2017-18 Win Total

[ebrian]

Let's not underrate regular season. I'm starting to see this more and more. People acting like regular season ain't shit and 30 win teams are out there going to finals or some shit. Going into playoffs with home court advantage has been vital for this team.

It's not that the regular season is useless; still have to make the playoffs. Home court is vital for some, but not for all. I think that's the point people are trying to make. If we had 4 games in a row at home against the Cavs last May, we still lose the series.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

It's not that the regular season is useless; still have to make the playoffs. Home court is vital for some, but not for all. I think that's the point people are trying to make. If we had 4 games in a row at home against the Cavs last May, we still lose the series.

If we didn't have homecourt against the Bucks I'd bet we lose that series.

Homecourt advantage is absolutely critical for this team. Not getting the 1st or 2nd seed means next to no chance of the conference finals.

[Demographic Shift]

If we didn't have homecourt against the Bucks I'd bet we lose that series.

Homecourt advantage is absolutely critical for this team. Not getting the 1st or 2nd seed means next to no chance of the conference finals.

And yet .... 2 of the four wins against the deer came on the Bucks home floor...sequencing may have been different but the Raps prevail either way.....

agree that home court means more in the NBA than in other leagues especially when the teams are more evenly matched in the later rounds..

[SkywalkerAC]

53

[The Great One]

If DeRozan and Lowry stay healthy they're going to win 50+ games.

Next year's prediction - 54

[Mapko]

It's not that the regular season is useless; still have to make the playoffs. Home court is vital for some, but not for all. I think that's the point people are trying to make. If we had 4 games in a row at home against the Cavs last May, we still lose the series.

Any other teams?
So we are 2nd best in East?
Im OK with that.

[DanH]

So, I've updated this prediction based on all the moves over the summer.

East W L | West W L
CLE 53 29 | GSW 68 14
TOR 52 30 | HOU 62 20
CHO 49 33 | LAC 58 24
BOS 48 34 | SAS 57 25
MIA 44 38 | OKC 55 27
WAS 43 39 | UTA 50 32
MIL 41 41 | MIN 48 34
DET 32 50 | NOP 47 35
NYK 30 52 | DEN 44 38
IND 30 52 | MEM 42 40
PHI 29 53 | POR 36 46
ATL 27 55 | DAL 36 46
CHI 24 58 | SAC 32 50
ORL 24 58 | PHO 23 59
BRK 22 60 | LAL 23 59

And worked backwards to get projected ORTG and DRTG (these I just assumed a league average ORTG of 106, and used the predicted point margin such that half went to offence and half went to defence). It's very rough, but it's what I'll use for game by game predictions for the first 22 games of the year.

East ORTG DRTG | West ORTG DRTG
CLE 108.2 103.8 | GSW 111.8 100.2
TOR 108.0 104.0 | HOU 110.1 101.9
CHO 107.5 104.5 | LAC 109.2 102.8
BOS 107.3 104.7 | SAS 109.0 103.0
MIA 106.5 105.5 | OKC 108.6 103.4
WAS 106.4 105.6 | UTA 107.6 104.4
MIL 106.0 106.0 | MIN 107.3 104.7
DET 104.4 107.6 | NOP 107.1 104.9
NYK 104.0 108.0 | DEN 106.5 105.5
IND 104.0 108.0 | MEM 106.2 105.8
PHI 103.8 108.2 | POR 105.1 106.9
ATL 103.4 108.6 | DAL 105.1 106.9
CHI 102.8 109.2 | SAC 104.4 107.6
ORL 102.8 109.2 | PHO 102.6 109.4
BRK 102.3 109.7 | LAL 102.6 109.4

[Nilanka]

A 32 win team making the playoffs, lol. The East is wretched.

[KeonClark]

If simmons and embiid are health, combined with jj Reddick, covington, fultz, amir johnson...no way philly doesn't win 30 plus and improve from last year

[DanH]

If simmons and embiid are health, combined with jj Reddick, covington, fultz, amir johnson...no way philly doesn't win 30 plus and improve from last year

Big ifs. But I agree, I think they exceed the predicted total, because the model assumes that players who only play 30 games will continue to only play 30 games.

[Other Scott]

I'm not trusting that model all that much Dan. Clippers at 58 wins? Does it know that Nic Batum is going to be injured for a few months?

That said I think a team that is going to be better than people think is the Atlanta Hawks. I know that they have reason to tank, but most people are predicting a 20 win drop. Do people really see Millsap, Hardaway and the husk of Dwight Howard being worth 20 games?

[DanH]

I'm not trusting that model all that much Dan. Clippers at 58 wins? Does it know that Nic Batum is going to be injured for a few months?

That said I think a team that is going to be better than people think is the Atlanta Hawks. I know that they have reason to tank, but most people are predicting a 20 win drop. Do people really see Millsap, Hardaway and the husk of Dwight Howard being worth 20 games?

No, it doesn't. As I outlined in some detail in the OP, the model has as few of my own assumptions as possible. It takes a direct pro-rate of last year's minutes.

My concern is as soon as I start fiddling with stuff like that, I can make the numbers dance to get results that "look right" to me, which kind of defeats the purpose.

[Maury]

I think Brooklyn is gonna be alright. I could see them winning as many as 35-40 games if everything goes right for them. Also as little as 25 if things don’t go well for them.

[KeonClark]

I think Brooklyn is gonna be alright. I could see them winning as many as 35-40 games if everything goes right for them. Also as little as 25 if things don’t go well for them.

40? Brooklyn is the most overrated team this summer imo. People like "they'll be better.." how? Russell is garbage

[tDotted]

40? Brooklyn is the most overrated team this summer imo. People like "they'll be better.." how? Russell is garbage

But they got the JYD 2.0 now!!!