Predicting the Raptors' 2017-18 Win Total

[Mess]

They play the right way on both sides of the floor, and Russel isn’t garbage, he’s a smart player who was put in a pretty awful position in LA. Kenny Atkinson is a very good coach and he’s got his team playing to the best of their abilities every game so far in the pre season and that’s enough to win a bit less than half your games when teams are going to come in and expect a walk in the park.

People tend to forget how much heavy lifting Brook Lopez did for them last year.

[SkywalkerAC]

53

[BrydenB]

46

[KeonClark]

I am just gonna go for it.... Perfect season 82-0

[thead]

I am just gonna go for it.... Perfect season 82-0

[Maury]

40? Brooklyn is the most overrated team this summer imo. People like "they'll be better.." how? Russell is garbage

They play the right way on both sides of the floor, and Russel isn’t garbage, he’s a smart player who was put in a pretty awful position in LA. Kenny Atkinson is a very good coach and he’s got his team playing to the best of their abilities every game so far in the pre season and that’s enough to win a bit less than half your games when teams are going to come in and expect a walk in the park.

[Nilanka]

40? Brooklyn is the most overrated team this summer imo. People like "they'll be better.." how? Russell is garbage

[tDotted]

40? Brooklyn is the most overrated team this summer imo. People like "they'll be better.." how? Russell is garbage

But they got the JYD 2.0 now!!!

[KeonClark]

I think Brooklyn is gonna be alright. I could see them winning as many as 35-40 games if everything goes right for them. Also as little as 25 if things don’t go well for them.

40? Brooklyn is the most overrated team this summer imo. People like "they'll be better.." how? Russell is garbage

[Maury]

I think Brooklyn is gonna be alright. I could see them winning as many as 35-40 games if everything goes right for them. Also as little as 25 if things don’t go well for them.

[DanH]

I'm not trusting that model all that much Dan. Clippers at 58 wins? Does it know that Nic Batum is going to be injured for a few months?

That said I think a team that is going to be better than people think is the Atlanta Hawks. I know that they have reason to tank, but most people are predicting a 20 win drop. Do people really see Millsap, Hardaway and the husk of Dwight Howard being worth 20 games?

No, it doesn't. As I outlined in some detail in the OP, the model has as few of my own assumptions as possible. It takes a direct pro-rate of last year's minutes.

My concern is as soon as I start fiddling with stuff like that, I can make the numbers dance to get results that "look right" to me, which kind of defeats the purpose.

[Other Scott]

I'm not trusting that model all that much Dan. Clippers at 58 wins? Does it know that Nic Batum is going to be injured for a few months?

That said I think a team that is going to be better than people think is the Atlanta Hawks. I know that they have reason to tank, but most people are predicting a 20 win drop. Do people really see Millsap, Hardaway and the husk of Dwight Howard being worth 20 games?

[DanH]

If simmons and embiid are health, combined with jj Reddick, covington, fultz, amir johnson...no way philly doesn't win 30 plus and improve from last year

Big ifs. But I agree, I think they exceed the predicted total, because the model assumes that players who only play 30 games will continue to only play 30 games.

[KeonClark]

If simmons and embiid are health, combined with jj Reddick, covington, fultz, amir johnson...no way philly doesn't win 30 plus and improve from last year

[Nilanka]

A 32 win team making the playoffs, lol. The East is wretched.