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  • golden
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post

    Siakam doesn't need to be a 30% usage guy, but if he's not carrying 25% this year something is wrong.

    Sharing the ball only helps if you get the defence moving first, and you need someone to attack to make that happen. That's really what a first option is - the guy you put in position to threaten to score enough that the defence lets other guys score to prevent that. We used to be able to run Lowry-JV PnR as our secondary threat play (behind all the get-the-ball-to-the-star plays). This year, it will be tougher to get high threat plays moving. The Lowry-Serge play tends to get you points but not to move the defence, teams will let Serge have his midrange jumpers. Lowry-Gasol will lead to a lot of jumpers, again a fine outcome, but again not likely a significant source of defensive rotation that will get tertiary guys open looks. Gasol in the post can make the pass if he's doubled but smart teams will let him try to score one on one without bringing help.
    Not only does Pascal need to carry that 25% USG, but he needs to carry it at higher than league average efficiency, or else he's hurting the team.

    Speaking of JV, he actually cracked the > 25% USG @ > 110 ORTG club this year, but at much less than 30 MPG. This means that JV does have some potential to be a first option on offense, assuming he can stay on the court for defensive purposes.


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  • DanH
    replied
    LJ2 wrote: View Post

    The thing is even with an aging Lowry, Gasol and Serge, I'm not expecting Siakam to get the sort of usgke Kawhi and DeMar got. I think we will see a lot more sharing the ball this season because nobody really has an elite level isolation game. I know Siakam is pretty good around the key, but not sure if he can break down a defense consistently from the 3pt line. Definitely not going to draw a second defender like Kawhi.
    Siakam doesn't need to be a 30% usage guy, but if he's not carrying 25% this year something is wrong.

    Sharing the ball only helps if you get the defence moving first, and you need someone to attack to make that happen. That's really what a first option is - the guy you put in position to threaten to score enough that the defence lets other guys score to prevent that. We used to be able to run Lowry-JV PnR as our secondary threat play (behind all the get-the-ball-to-the-star plays). This year, it will be tougher to get high threat plays moving. The Lowry-Serge play tends to get you points but not to move the defence, teams will let Serge have his midrange jumpers. Lowry-Gasol will lead to a lot of jumpers, again a fine outcome, but again not likely a significant source of defensive rotation that will get tertiary guys open looks. Gasol in the post can make the pass if he's doubled but smart teams will let him try to score one on one without bringing help.

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  • LJ2
    replied
    golden wrote: View Post

    Years ago, I came up with this criteria to determine who is an elite scorer. It goes something like this:

    USG > 25%
    ORTG > 110
    MP/G > 30

    Below is a link to the list of the players who met the criteria for the last 4 seasons, from BB-Ref. Sort it by name:

    https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=gzFyI

    Any player on the list twice (like Beal) is a top flight scorer. If you're on the list 4 times, you're the cream of the crop (Steph, Lebron, Harden, Durant). If you're on the list once, you're very, very good.

    Pascal has to increase his usage quite a bit to make this list. He's got a chance.

    The thing is even with an aging Lowry, Gasol and Serge, I'm not expecting Siakam to get the sort of usgke Kawhi and DeMar got. I think we will see a lot more sharing the ball this season because nobody really has an elite level isolation game. I know Siakam is pretty good around the key, but not sure if he can break down a defense consistently from the 3pt line. Definitely not going to draw a second defender like Kawhi.

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  • golden
    replied
    planetmars wrote: View Post

    He did say elite scorer specifically.. and DeMar is an elite scorer.
    DeRozan was an elite scorer "in the regular season", under Casey, but not under Popovich. However, ironically, DeMar met the "golden rule" elite scorer criteria in the playoffs, under Popovich last season. Weird.

    Below is the link to the list of players who met the criteria for the last 4 playoff seasons. Obviously a much smaller sample size of games, but it's still mostly the guys you expect to be on there:

    http://bkref.com/tiny/K8fhi

    Leave a comment:


  • planetmars
    replied
    suspenders wrote: View Post

    Interesting. I think Beal is great, but isn't it still hard to judge? I mean, DeRozan is on that list 3 times and we know how that panned out in the playoffs.
    He did say elite scorer specifically.. and DeMar is an elite scorer.

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  • suspenders
    replied
    golden wrote: View Post

    Years ago, I came up with this criteria to determine who is an elite scorer. It goes something like this:

    USG > 25%
    ORTG > 110
    MP/G > 30

    Below is a link to the list of the players who met the criteria for the last 4 seasons, from BB-Ref. Sort it by name:

    https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=gzFyI

    Any player on the list twice (like Beal) is a top flight scorer. If you're on the list 4 times, you're the cream of the crop (Steph, Lebron, Harden, Durant). If you're on the list once, you're very, very good.

    Pascal has to increase his usage quite a bit to make this list. He's got a chance.

    Interesting. I think Beal is great, but isn't it still hard to judge? I mean, DeRozan is on that list 3 times and we know how that panned out in the playoffs.

    Leave a comment:


  • golden
    replied
    Joey wrote: View Post

    Per the bold, I call shenanigans ... Jabari Parker made the list. Lol
    lol. There are a lot of flash-in-the-pan scorers that make the list once or even twice in their careers. Guys who do it for the 1st time at lower minutes are usually undervalued and worth taking a gamble on.

    The reality is that Parker was a very, very good scorer in his 3rd year and then foolishly turned down a big rookie scale extension, believing he was on that upward curve to become a max player. Problem is that he never developed a reliable 3-pt shot and sucks at just about every other aspect of basketball (especially defense), not to mention being perpetually injured.

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  • Joey
    replied
    golden wrote: View Post

    Years ago, I came up with this criteria to determine who is an elite scorer. It goes something like this:

    USG > 25%
    ORTG > 110
    MP/G > 30

    Below is a link to the list of the players who met the criteria for the last 4 seasons, from BB-Ref. Sort it by name:

    https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=gzFyI

    Any player on the list twice (like Beal) is a top flight scorer. If you're on the list 4 times, you're the cream of the crop (Steph, Lebron, Harden, Durant). If you're on the list once, you're very, very good.

    Pascal has to increase his usage quite a bit to make this list. He's got a chance.

    Per the bold, I call shenanigans ... Jabari Parker made the list. Lol

    Leave a comment:


  • golden
    replied
    LJ2 wrote: View Post

    Pascal is still viewed as a hustle-great motor-great length guy, and not as a skilled player. That is what puts Beal and guys like Beal ahead of him in peoples minds. It takes someone like Giannis coming along to show people that hustle, motor and length at an elite level can be just as valuable as shooting, passing etc.
    Years ago, I came up with this criteria to determine who is an elite scorer. It goes something like this:

    USG > 25%
    ORTG > 110
    MP/G > 30

    Below is a link to the list of the players who met the criteria for the last 4 seasons, from BB-Ref. Sort it by name:

    https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=gzFyI

    Any player on the list twice (like Beal) is a top flight scorer. If you're on the list 4 times, you're the cream of the crop (Steph, Lebron, Harden, Durant). If you're on the list once, you're very, very good.

    Pascal has to increase his usage quite a bit to make this list. He's got a chance.


    Leave a comment:


  • planetmars
    replied
    LJ2 wrote: View Post

    Pascal is still viewed as a hustle-great motor-great length guy, and not as a skilled player. That is what puts Beal and guys like Beal ahead of him in peoples minds. It takes someone like Giannis coming along to show people that hustle, motor and length at an elite level can be just as valuable as shooting, passing etc.
    It's a good point.. it's also because Pascal might be a flash in the pan. He came from nowhere. I mean he was not a great player at all in his 2nd year. He didn't make the all-rookie team or even the all-rookie game.

    But Beal has played in the league for 7 years.. furthest he got in the playoffs was the 2nd round. Pascal in 4 years could exceed what Beal has done.. I don't think it would be too difficult. He is most likely going to be our best player and our all-star nominee for next year. There are arguably more elite guards than bigs in the game.. so he might be able to get an all-nba nod if things go well for him and the Raptors.

    And if the NBA sees more elite non-US born players in the league.. I could see one or two of them wanting to play with Pascal to take the league by storm. Maybe Giannis is already that guy. Hopefully he is.

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  • LJ2
    replied
    planetmars wrote: View Post

    Well Pascal just completed his third year.. where his first was mostly with the 905's. I'm not saying he'll be Anthony Davis (who's near elite already and who I referenced as a superstar). But George took a long time to becoming where he is now.. ie, 3rd in MVP voting. Pascal is the guy George was in Indiana or close to it. And he'll get a chance to really prove it next year when he's the man on the team. It's a wait and see.. and that I think is what people here are saying. He's not there yet, but can get there. He's got some tools and proved his potential a bit last year (like scoring 32 on 14/17 shooting in the NBA finals - with Draymond Green covering him).

    You can be pessimistic on his chances.. that's fine. It's a discussion forum. I just feel a lot more optimistic that Pascal will become good enough to attract other players to want to play with him.. especially guys that are not US-born. I feel better about Pascal's chances to being great more than I ever did about DeMar.. and that's because Pascal plays defense and he'll be on a team managed by Masai (unlike Bosh who was managed by Colangelo unfortunately).

    As for the 2016 draft class though.. I currently have Pascal as the second best player after Simmons depending on how you feel about his game. I like him over Murray/Hield/Sabonis/etc. And the 2016 draft was just 3 years ago. Taking homerism out of it, where do you rank him in that draft class? If high up than why don't you think he can get into that "star" realm that you've defined?

    What makes Beal so much more attractive than Pascal right now? He's been an all-star only twice in 7 seasons played.
    Pascal is still viewed as a hustle-great motor-great length guy, and not as a skilled player. That is what puts Beal and guys like Beal ahead of him in peoples minds. It takes someone like Giannis coming along to show people that hustle, motor and length at an elite level can be just as valuable as shooting, passing etc.

    Leave a comment:


  • Joey
    replied
    slaw wrote: View Post

    What do you mean by like? He's a good player but I don't particularly like the way he carries himself. I'd take him on the Raps but I'm way too worried about his health to rely on him as a #1 guy. Huge dudes with foot and back issues aren't exactly durable...
    Ya, fair enough. More just meant that people here, for the most part, recognize he's a special talent and would hate him a lot less if he wore the Red and Black.

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  • slaw
    replied
    Joey wrote: View Post

    Who here doesn't' like Embiid? Sure he's our "enemy" since he plays for the 76ers, but I'm not sure you'll find too many people that don't think he's a special player and would welcome him on the team.
    What do you mean by like? He's a good player but I don't particularly like the way he carries himself. I'd take him on the Raps but I'm way too worried about his health to rely on him as a #1 guy. Huge dudes with foot and back issues aren't exactly durable...

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  • Joey
    replied
    G__Deane wrote: View Post

    How about "if Embiid was healthy that one series....."
    Better for you?

    PS
    Having the flu is quite different than a bum knee/back when talking about an athlete's injury/health history....
    Meh, not really. Lol And is it different though? Embiid is incapable of staying healthy, regardless of what it is. If anything it's a much worse excuse than having a bum knee/back etc. Either way, that is the narrative around Embiid until he makes it not be. And presenting the hypothetical of "if he wasn't who he was" just seems to be a futile argument.

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  • planetmars
    replied
    G__Deane wrote: View Post

    I'm my vocabulary, lebron, Curry, Kawhi, Giannis and Durant are the elite guys. Yes maybe Harden and Davis.
    After that you have guys that to me are still superstars like George (becuase he's 2-way), Westbrook (because he's not 2-way), Kyrie etc. PG may not be as flashy or get the headlines because of where he played his numbers don't lie.

    The elite guys don't necessarily have to team up since there are only so many of them. But the supertars do with them or other superstars.

    The jury is still out on Pascal, there's a lot of homerism on him here. I just don't see him becoming elite (so rare that's not a slight on him). Whether he can become a superstar and attract another remains to be seen. He's got a long way to go to be as good as a Paul George or Anthony Davis or even Bradley Beale..
    Well Pascal just completed his third year.. where his first was mostly with the 905's. I'm not saying he'll be Anthony Davis (who's near elite already and who I referenced as a superstar). But George took a long time to becoming where he is now.. ie, 3rd in MVP voting. Pascal is the guy George was in Indiana or close to it. And he'll get a chance to really prove it next year when he's the man on the team. It's a wait and see.. and that I think is what people here are saying. He's not there yet, but can get there. He's got some tools and proved his potential a bit last year (like scoring 32 on 14/17 shooting in the NBA finals - with Draymond Green covering him).

    You can be pessimistic on his chances.. that's fine. It's a discussion forum. I just feel a lot more optimistic that Pascal will become good enough to attract other players to want to play with him.. especially guys that are not US-born. I feel better about Pascal's chances to being great more than I ever did about DeMar.. and that's because Pascal plays defense and he'll be on a team managed by Masai (unlike Bosh who was managed by Colangelo unfortunately).

    As for the 2016 draft class though.. I currently have Pascal as the second best player after Simmons depending on how you feel about his game. I like him over Murray/Hield/Sabonis/etc. And the 2016 draft was just 3 years ago. Taking homerism out of it, where do you rank him in that draft class? If high up than why don't you think he can get into that "star" realm that you've defined?

    What makes Beal so much more attractive than Pascal right now? He's been an all-star only twice in 7 seasons played.

    Leave a comment:

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