How much have we improved?

[007]

These should be the big minutes played changes from last season.

Carroll to Miles (~1800 mins)
Patterson to Ibaka (~1600)
Ross to Powell (~1500)
Joseph to Wright (~1500)
Tucker was great, but didn't play many minutes.

Those are generally considered improvements. NBA.com ranked us in the top 10 in Offseason moves.

But, I googled "nba 2017-18 win predictions" and these are the top five results

48.5 Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
48.8 cbssports.com
47.0 bleacherreport
47.5 sportsinsights.com
46.5 fansided.com

ESPN - which rated our offseason as "B" - had us even worse at 43.4. Those are big declines for a team that averaged 53.5 wins the last two seasons, despite starting Scola and Siakam and our All-Star point guard missing a lot of games last year.

What gives? We spent a lot of money and gave up a bunch of draft picks to restructure the team. Why are we not projected to win a lot more games?

Including by voters here. What was the point in the signings and giving up draft picks if the team is supposed to win less games?

I don't think Carroll and Patterson were nearly as bad as most others do. But, I still think we should win at least 55 games, hopefully 60.

That might be aiming a bit too high lol

[BrieflySpeaking]

These should be the big minutes played changes from last season.

Carroll to Miles (~1800 mins)
Patterson to Ibaka (~1600)
Ross to Powell (~1500)
Joseph to Wright (~1500)
Tucker was great, but didn't play many minutes.

Those are generally considered improvements. NBA.com ranked us in the top 10 in Offseason moves.

But, I googled "nba 2017-18 win predictions" and these are the top five results

48.5 Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
48.8 cbssports.com
47.0 bleacherreport
47.5 sportsinsights.com
46.5 fansided.com

ESPN - which rated our offseason as "B" - had us even worse at 43.4. Those are big declines for a team that averaged 53.5 wins the last two seasons, despite starting Scola and Siakam and our All-Star point guard missing a lot of games last year.

What gives? We spent a lot of money and gave up a bunch of draft picks to restructure the team. Why are we not projected to win a lot more games? Including by voters here.

What was the point in the signings and giving up draft picks if the team is supposed to win less games?

I don't think Carroll and Patterson were nearly as bad as most others do. But, I still think we should win at least 55 games, hopefully 60.

[thead]

Sorta glad it's happening, to be honest. This team tends to play better with a chip on their shoulder. When they think they're good, that's when the Wizards sweep us in embarrassing fashion.

500.00 dollar hypnotherapy bill to erase that underwear stain from my memory and you just bring it back like Miley Cyrus riding a wrecking ball.

[Nilanka]

Can't believe the disrespect I'm seeing across several preseason rankings. Well, I can...because Raptors. Can't wait to see the team prove them wrong. Then they'll say it doesn't matter because wait until the playoffs.

Sorta glad it's happening, to be honest. This team tends to play better with a chip on their shoulder. When they think they're good, that's when the Wizards sweep us in embarrassing fashion.

[Jclaw]

Can't believe the disrespect I'm seeing across several preseason rankings. Well, I can...because Raptors. Can't wait to see the team prove them wrong. Then they'll say it doesn't matter because wait until the playoffs.

[S.R.]

We shot 32.6% from 3 this preseason, 6th worst among NBA teams. However, we made the second most, because we attempted the second most, after the Rockets.

Given that we only shot 37.7% from mid-range last year, even making 32.6% of threes is going to be more efficient. Question is whether we stick to the game plan once other teams begin adjusting their defensive strategies after scouting us, or if we revert back to old habits.

Last I heard if all of Toronto's long twos were replaced with threes, even hitting the threes at just a 26% clip would be more efficient.

If the threes are replacing mid and long twos, I'd think anything over 30% will be an improvement. And that's not even going into opening the floor for drives + inside scoring. All that interior space was beautiful to see at times during the preseason, very good for driving guards + for JV.

[Puffer]

We won't be chucking quite as much in the regular season I'd have to assume.

But still, take the preseason stats and give 5-8 more minutes to Lowry with same or improved %, 8-10 more for Norm with a slightly improved % and 10 more for Ibaka with improved % (all 3 likely) and that will raise the overall average a good chunk. Even when you figure in Miles not hitting 50%.

Those 4 players took 50% of the 3's in preseason and you can assume their piece of the pie will only get bigger.

That's where I was going with this. In answer to the OP question, "How Much Have We Improved?" I would also add that what we have seen from JV is significant, if he can sustain it, CJ Miles D is much better than described, Fred VV has demonstrated improvement over last year, OG has a better offensive game than originally stated, and Jacob doesn't seem as foul prone. Those are improvements. Not to mention a whole year without Carroll. That alone has to add 3-4 wins. Now if Lowry can manage to play 70 - 75 games, and DD stays healthy as well???

[Puffer]

...Given that we only shot 37.7% from mid-range last year, even making 32.6% of threes is going to be more efficient...

Quite a bit more efficient.

[Mess]

Hey DanH I suspect we will be a pretty good regular season team. It’s the post season that is a huge question mark. Let’s home LBJ gets that knee sprain at the right. I am skeptical BUT I in fact put $20 on Raptors to win NBA championship in Vegas payout 1220$. The Sixers had worse odds than us .perhaps better bet would be 7/1 on Raptors to win division.

A couple weeks ago I put money on Raptors winning the Atlantic at 7/1 and as a hedge I put the same amount on them winning over 48.5 games. Just winning the latter would recoup the entire amount bet.

[Mess]

We won't be chucking quite as much in the regular season I'd have to assume.

But still, take the preseason stats and give 5-8 more minutes to Lowry with same or improved %, 8-10 more for Norm with a slightly improved % and 10 more for Ibaka with improved % (all 3 likely) and that will raise the overall average a good chunk. Even when you figure in Miles not hitting 50%.

Those 4 players took 50% of the 3's in preseason and you can assume their piece of the pie will only get bigger.

[GLF]

Overall

Okay well then that's not bad because a lot of guys who won't be shooting it when the actual season starts took a lot of shots. Also I expect guys like Serge and Norm to shoot it better than they did. Even Kyle could shoot it better than he did.

[MixxAOR]

Was that 32.6% when the regulars played close regular minutes? Or is that just overall the whole team for the whole preseason?

Overall

[GLF]

We shot 32.6% from 3 this preseason, 6th worst among NBA teams. However, we made the second most, because we attempted the second most, after the Rockets.

Given that we only shot 37.7% from mid-range last year, even making 32.6% of threes is going to be more efficient. Question is whether we stick to the game plan once other teams begin adjusting their defensive strategies after scouting us, or if we revert back to old habits.

Was that 32.6% when the regulars played close regular minutes? Or is that just overall the whole team for the whole preseason?

[Scraptor]

The three's have seemed legit. I haven't checked, but with the regular rotation playing regular minutes I would guess the team is shooting around 34% from three. Of course, CJ is bound to come back down to earth, but OG, Norm, Delon, et. al. may very well improve their percentages... by taking better shots that are more within the flow of the offense.

Improved 3's is going to make a very significant improvement to this team. Derozan and Lowry could have a field day inside. Shooting %'s could go up all around.

We shot 32.6% from 3 this preseason, 6th worst among NBA teams. However, we made the second most, because we attempted the second most, after the Rockets.

Given that we only shot 37.7% from mid-range last year, even making 32.6% of threes is going to be more efficient. Question is whether we stick to the game plan once other teams begin adjusting their defensive strategies after scouting us, or if we revert back to old habits.

[Scraptor]

combined 35+ missed games it's off?

Sure, that works. Good luck - I want to see the Raps do well, even if I don't think the win total will go up.