Your Ideal Lineup

[DanH]

In your opinion Poeltl would struggle against real Cs? Would he? And JV does...what? Dominate them? As you like big samples... on which sample do you base this?

JV had heavy minutes under his belt in his second season? Minutes that you don't want to give to Poeltl. Poeltl shouldn't play heavy minutes before he hasn't "put on strength much more slowly"? What does that mean? When he is 25? 27? 30? What would change for the Raptors, if Poeltl would play more minutes than JV? Nothing... unless they make a big trade. They still would be a 1st or 2nd round playoff team. But if they want to go with Poeltl at C in the next years, it wouldn't be bad to give him some run now. Next year seems to be THE year. Don't look like the Raptors will count on JV then.

Would playing JV less minutes impact his trade worth? No! Unfortunately he seems to have no worth in today's NBA. Regardless of wether he plays or not. It only gets worse.

JV's a much better rebounder than Poeltl? JV had 7 RB in 20mpg. Not so great, if you ask me. Comparing the defense of JV and Poeltl is like comparing apples and pears. Poeltl makes his stops away from the rim and impacts the defense with his mobility. And his numbers are not so far away from JV's with 4,5 RB in 14 mpg and even better if you look at blocking. Yes, I know.. weaker competition!? Poeltl looks soft? You're kidding! I'd like to see this effort from the starters.

JV complains how he is treated? Come on. Poeltl found himself benched as the 3rd string center for no reason after a few games at the start of the season. Although he played great. He didn't complain, but showed even more effort in his few minutes.

So why should JV play more minutes than Poeltl? Yes, I'm biased. I'm Austrian. But I don't see it.
I'm not argueing for Poeltl to be a starter now. It doesn't matter, I think. Leave it to JV or start Ibaka. But giving Poeltl less than 20 minutes per game makes no sense (to me).

When have I ever argued for Poeltl not getting 20 minutes per game? He should. That's the time he should get as a backup this year, precisely so he can build up his game, confidence and strength in preparation for eventually taking over the starting role. I'm not sure what position you think I've taken, but I thought I was pretty clear that Poeltl should be getting steady minutes in a backup role, BeBe should be playing only in case of injury, and JV should continue taking those starting minutes against the biggest competition. It's Shaolin who has argued for starting Ibaka at C and mostly burying Poeltl in the rotation.

I've never said JV dominates starting quality competition. He doesn't. But he generally can hold his own in the post and on the boards against them - Poeltl can't just yet, though he's headed in the right direction.

As for the sample I base Poeltl's likelihood of success on, that would be his entire career to date. In any case, the burden of proof would be on the one arguing for a change - there's simply no evidence Poeltl can manage it just yet, and the default position is a roughly league average starting lineup, which is non-ideal but also not exactly a disaster like years past.

JV has played here for years, constantly being benched and saddled with the worst lineups, and this is the first we've ever heard of him complaining, and him complaining to Lowry (who commiserated) is hardly some sort of ultimatum in the press. Good luck catching JV criticizing Casey to the press. He's very much a team player, much like Poeltl thus far.

As for the rebounding... Poeltl is a poor defensive rebounder. There's no real way around that. But he's fine for now, in bench looks. I certainly agree that Poeltl's footspeed on defence is awesome and it's basically THE reason why he's the future starter for this team if he can keep that as he adds strength. And it's not that he does't bring effort - I agree, if the starters could consistently play with Poeltl's energy they'd be unstoppable. But effort is not enough, he just doesn't have the strength to box out the biggest players in the league yet.

I don't even mind JV and Poeltl getting a rough time share at this point (~20-22 per game each), with Ibaka getting some closing minutes in each half or specific matchup opportunities. And then playing one of JV or Poeltl more if the matchup demands it. But I definitely think who they play against and when matters for this team, which is why I want JV taking those tough starting minutes, for the short term anyway.

[JimiCliff]

Bingo. Figure out your best lineups now instead of later. Every year we're tinkering with our starting 5 in the playoffs because we play a mediocre unit in the regular season and it comes back to bite us when rotations are shortened and opponents aren't playing crappy bench units that we can feed on.

And so against Cleveland, the lineup I want out there to start is KL-DD-OG-PS-SI. Which means we have Yak and JV on the bench, which means one of them is getting little-to-no-minutes.

[DanH]

It was fatal in the playoffs. There's a good argument that we should be using the lineup that we'd want to use against Cleveland in a playoff matchup, to get them as much PT together as possible.

Which is funny, because we switched back to using Scola at PF against CLE that year, even after switching to Patterson earlier in the playoffs. Fun.

I agree we should be playing with lineup variants a lot this year to get different lineups time together. Which we've been doing very nicely so far this season, actually.

[JawsGT]

I'd like to see CJ start a few games. OG coming off the bench with Powell, Poeltl, Siakim and Wright/FVV.

[JimiCliff]

The real awkwardness will come upon the realization that our best lineup against Cleveland is KL-DD-CJ-OG-PS

[DanH]

I'd like to see CJ start a few games. OG coming off the bench with Powell, Poeltl, Siakim and Wright/FVV.

I don't know if I'd screw with OG starting, he's been a revelation. And I don't know how I feel about a not-much-shooting bench like that. Miles has really helped the bench click for most of the season.

If we want to get some minutes with CJ with the starters (and we should try it), we can try that in late 2nd or 4th Q's, or with an early sub.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

The real awkwardness will come upon the realization that our best lineup against Cleveland is KL-DD-CJ-OG-PS

Good. If that's the case then let's find that out now too.

I don't care about playing favourites with players. Figure out our best starting lineup and play it.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

I'd like to see CJ start a few games. OG coming off the bench with Powell, Poeltl, Siakim and Wright/FVV.

We already have enough problems on defense, mate.

[JawsGT]

OG is definitely starting quality, no doubt. He is the future big wing, small 4 for this team. I have no problem with him starting, or Powell for that matter, but I'd still like to see CJ spacing the floor for Lowry and Demar, and that fast paced defensive unit come off the bench.

[DanH]

Good. If that's the case then let's find that out now too.

I don't care about playing favourites with players. Figure out our best starting lineup and play it.

But that's a different thing. You don't just start your best 5 in the playoffs, it's all about matchups.

And you don't just start your best 5 anyway. Golden State doesn't start their death lineup. It's more complicated than maximizing point differential for the starting unit.

But even if we were looking to optimize the starting unit, creating a starting unit that matches up well with CLE doesn't achieve the same thing as optimizing the starting unit for most matchups, or for surviving a full 82 games.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

But that's a different thing. You don't just start your best 5 in the playoffs, it's all about matchups.

And you don't just start your best 5 anyway. Golden State doesn't start their death lineup. It's more complicated than maximizing point differential for the starting unit.

But even if we were looking to optimize the starting unit, creating a starting unit that matches up well with CLE doesn't achieve the same thing as optimizing the starting unit for most matchups, or for surviving a full 82 games.

I didn't say best lineup I said best STARTING lineup.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

CJ's shooting isn't needed with the starters. Offense isn't the issue with that unit. You guys are offering the wrong solutions to the problem. The bench units play great D and mediocre to bad offense (with no Kyle it's often bad). The starters play very good offense but shit defense.

[Rudy Bargnani]

I think Dan and Shaolin should do a podcast together and argue for the hour. I'd subscribe for sure.

[DanH]

I didn't say best lineup I said best STARTING lineup.

Yes, but again, if Siakam at the 5 would be the best starting lineup against CLE, that still doesn't mean that's the best starting lineup to use every night for the rest of the season.

[JimiCliff]

I don't think KL-DD-CJ-OG-PS is the best starting lineup against CLE, but it may be the best finishing lineup. KL-DD-OG-PS-SI would be better to start against CLE. This could be used all season, but we'd need to trade for a bench 4.