Game #25: Toronto Raptors 91 - Los Angeles Clippers 96

[SkywalkerAC]

People know that 'hot hand' is a fallacy, right? Just because someone is having a good game is no reason, in and of itself, to leave them in the game. If the "having a good game" corresponds to having a favorable individual or team matchup, then you've got something to base a decision on.

[raptors999]

People know that 'hot hand' is a fallacy, right? Just because someone is having a good game is no reason, in and of itself, to leave them in the game. If the "having a good game" corresponds to having a favorable individual or team matchup, then you've got something to base a decision on.

JV is a rebounder, that sets screens, protects the rim and hits FT. Benching him to end games is a preference for scrambling D and rim attacks in isolation. Not using JV and Miles to end games is a play style both offensively and defensively

[KeonClark]

People know that 'hot hand' is a fallacy, right? Just because someone is having a good game is no reason, in and of itself, to leave them in the game. If the "having a good game" corresponds to having a favorable individual or team matchup, then you've got something to base a decision on.

Gonna have to strongly disagree. Sure the "hot hand" for shooting is more random than anything (although there's papers discounting that fallacy recently), but we're not just talking about whether JV would make his next shot. He was bringing ENERGY to both ends of the court that was growing with confidence, minutes and involvement that isn't there every game.

You're talking about shooting and the randomness of a coin flip, but the hot hand theory does not apply to the general energy and determination an athlete brings on a given day. That can and is affected by the human's will power.

[rocwell]

Don't worry, it's okay to bother Google with your questions. #MadeByGoogle pic.twitter.com/lh1R8LYKVO

— Toronto Raptors (@Raptors) December 12, 2017

[Ball]

Even if we had switched out FVV for Miles in those last 6 minutes, and left JV on the bench, in all likelihood we would've won since Miles had his shot that night.

[KeonClark]

Even if we had switched out FVV for Miles in those last 6 minutes, and left JV on the bench, in all likelihood we would've won since Miles had his shot that night.

I don't think miles has closed a single game yet, or played over 30 min at all. Clearly casey does not trust his overall game

[SkywalkerAC]

Gonna have to strongly disagree. Sure the "hot hand" for shooting is more random than anything (although there's papers discounting that fallacy recently), but we're not just talking about whether JV would make his next shot. He was bringing ENERGY to both ends of the court that was growing with confidence, minutes and involvement that isn't there every game.

You're talking about shooting and the randomness of a coin flip, but the hot hand theory does not apply to the general energy and determination an athlete brings on a given day. That can and is affected by the human's will power.

This may hold true for an individual - having more 'energy' one day than the last - but this is a very nebulous concept to base coaching decisions on when the assumption should be that, outside of extreme fatigue, all players will bring 'the energy' in the closing minutes.

The rational decision is to play your best closing lineup based on the opponent's, not on what has transpired in the game .

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Fair enough. On the other hand, if Casey would ever actually try to use JV to exploit a similar mismatch on the other end, it could be a different story. Unfortunately, Casey will never venture away from the DeRozan/Lowry-centric offense, regardless of other matchups and/or their effectiveness (we've seen this in the playoffs far too often).

Mate are you stuck in last season or something? We're moving the ball and being way more egalitarian this year. You do realize a post-up is just another kind of iso, and JV isn't exactly an elite post-up player with a wide array of moves?

[tDotted]

People know that 'hot hand' is a fallacy, right? Just because someone is having a good game is no reason, in and of itself, to leave them in the game. If the "having a good game" corresponds to having a favorable individual or team matchup, then you've got something to base a decision on.

1. Not sure how that means that having the hot hand is a "fallacy"

2. JV wasn't just a "hot hand". He's a starter who was the best player on the floor for BOTH SIDES. Not only that, he was the only one who could matchup physically with Clippers' centers. Even if he only had 2 points, he should've been on the floor. The fact that he was on fire on a night where we couldn't get anything else to go means benching him is royal fuck up on Casey's part.

[S.R.]

Replying to a couple of comments above (I'm still on the messed up mobile version), I don't have a problem with the way Casey has generally been closing games, but JV should have been in to close this one.

[SkywalkerAC]

I just see why Casey bet on his mobile-line to take control of a game like that in the clutch, it's the one he's going to be counting on down the stretch of the season to really take us to another level. That line should have been able to out-quick and out-talent the Clips - it just didn't happen for them.

That said, I honestly didn't watch closely enough to comment further. Also, I love JV.

[S.R.]

Just curious....but while the broadcast crew reported that the Raptors arrived in LA at 7pm Sunday so should have had lots of rest.....is it possible that the players might have gone out for a little nightlife? This has become a problem (allegedly) with our local hockey team and their gross underperformance (Oilers) and I wonder if there is some explanation for why nearly the entire Raptors team looked like complete ass. There was an article I saw somewhere last year where certain cities (New Orleans, Miami)had remarkably good home records because opponents found a lot to do the night before games. Just curious

The 4th quarter of the second night of a back to back on the west coast - it's not the craziest thing that they finished flat in the final quarter of game #2. Not to get repetitive but the only real disappointment was that JV wasn't out there in the 4th when he was having such a good game and was a fit for the match-up vs. Deandre.

[3inthekeon]

And the Spurs go into Dallas, shoot 7/28 from 3, and blow a lead in the 4th losing to the 8-20 Mavs.

[Nilanka]

Too simplified. It's the same as it is for teams who have a traditional C with a straightforward/simple offensive game and who is big and dominant on the glass. That applies to Drummond, DeAndre, Gobert, Whiteside and very few others.

The 1 on 1 matchup also isn't the only thing that matters. For example I wouldn't dare start JV against Golden State in a playoff series. While obviously Zaza is no problem for him whatsoever defensively, he is primarily used as an (illegal) screen setter to free up their other shooters, force defenses to scramble and create switches. Having JV out there is how you get raped, and the only reason we were even in that GS game was because of Poeltl's ability to switch onto KD and such.

Not that I plan on facing the Warriors in the playoffs any time soon, but if that were to happen, there's no doubt in my mind that Casey would start Jonas.