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  • #31
    Quirk wrote: View Post
    Do you have resource that you prefer to WP that illustrates that DeRozan is better than Lowry this year? If so, I'd be really interested in knowing about it.

    If not, then, then your opinion of Berri is not really helpful.

    Also, if you in general know statistical communities that are as active as the WP community, and put usesable and up-to-date tools on line, I would like to know about them regardless of how they rank DeRozan.

    I'm very happy with how DeRozan is playing this year. Ranking him above Lowry sounds dubious by any measure.
    Uhh, Basketball-Reference’s win shares, the most used win rate statistic? .215 WS/48 to Lowry’s .185. Usually it’s reversed (Lowry at or near .200, DeMar in the .170+ range).

    APBRmetrics is a great NBA stats group. They do a lot of mathematical critiques of different stats. I don’t necessarily agree with all their conclusions, but still a great resource.

    I don’t think DeMar is a better player than Lowry yet - Lowry’s impact numbers are still through the roof. But with their efficiencies approaching each other, and with the volume DeMar puts up, he’s pretty definitely taken the production lead, at least so far this season.
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • #32
      DanH wrote: View Post
      Uhh, Basketball-Reference’s win shares, the most used win rate statistic? .215 WS/48 to Lowry’s .185. Usually it’s reversed (Lowry at or near .200, DeMar in the .170+ range).

      APBRmetrics is a great NBA stats group. They do a lot of mathematical critiques of different stats. I don’t necessarily agree with all their conclusions, but still a great resource.

      I don’t think DeMar is a better player than Lowry yet - Lowry’s impact numbers are still through the roof. But with their efficiencies approaching each other, and with the volume DeMar puts up, he’s pretty definitely taken the production lead, at least so far this season.
      Thanks, very useful to know which groups you value. I also like WS, but actually WP matches my own impressions better, for what its worth. For instance WS suggests that Toni Kukok contributed more wins to that 96/97 Bulls team than Rodman and his 25.6 TRB% and more per 48 than either Pippen or Kerr. So there's that. If I have to chose between a stat that overvalues Rodman and a stat that overvalues Kukok, I'll take the former.

      Thanks for confirming that we agree that DeMar is not better than Lowry, and therefor not, at this stage at least, the greatest Raptor of all time.

      Cheers.

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      • #33
        DanH wrote: View Post
        Uhh, Basketball-Reference’s win shares, the most used win rate statistic? .215 WS/48 to Lowry’s .185. Usually it’s reversed (Lowry at or near .200, DeMar in the .170+ range).

        APBRmetrics is a great NBA stats group. They do a lot of mathematical critiques of different stats. I don’t necessarily agree with all their conclusions, but still a great resource.

        I don’t think DeMar is a better player than Lowry yet - Lowry’s impact numbers are still through the roof. But with their efficiencies approaching each other, and with the volume DeMar puts up, he’s pretty definitely taken the production lead, at least so far this season.
        WIn Shares may have been most used, not sure anymore. It does seem to capture DD's offensive superiority over Lowry this season, but the defensive side is and has been very flawed. Absolutely no way Lowry and DD have been our most positively impactful defenders this season.
        If we knew half as much about coaching an NBA team as we think, we"d know twice as much as we do.

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        • #34
          3inthekeon wrote: View Post
          WIn Shares may have been most used, not sure anymore. It does seem to capture DD's offensive superiority over Lowry this season, but the defensive side is and has been very flawed. Absolutely no way Lowry and DD have been our most positively impactful defenders this season.
          Which win production stat do you see used more than WS?

          There are a good number of impact stat based ones, but WS and WP are still the two big names in production wins.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • #35
            Quirk wrote: View Post
            Thanks, very useful to know which groups you value. I also like WS, but actually WP matches my own impressions better, for what its worth. For instance WS suggests that Toni Kukok contributed more wins to that 96/97 Bulls team than Rodman and his 25.6 TRB% and more per 48 than either Pippen or Kerr. So there's that. If I have to chose between a stat that overvalues Rodman and a stat that overvalues Kukok, I'll take the former.

            Thanks for confirming that we agree that DeMar is not better than Lowry, and therefor not, at this stage at least, the greatest Raptor of all time.

            Cheers.
            No matter what stat you choose, it will overrate someone. Using outliers to determine what stats you use is a really bad idea.

            I think the definition of greatest Raptor ever is broad enough that an assertion that Lowry is the more important player for the current Raps (and if that is still true, it is certainly closer than it has ever been before) does not remotely disqualify him from the discussion about the title of greatest Raptor of all time.
            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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            • #36
              3inthekeon wrote: View Post
              WIn Shares may have been most used, not sure anymore. It does seem to capture DD's offensive superiority over Lowry this season, but the defensive side is and has been very flawed. Absolutely no way Lowry and DD have been our most positively impactful defenders this season.
              The defensive side of WS is basically driven by minutes played and on-court defensive numbers (with a little bit of individual defence thrown in). So with Lowry and DD playing so many minutes, it’s not surprising they rack up a lot of DWS. If you look per minute, they are pretty much in line with the other starters (all between .05 to .075 DWS/48, with JV and Serge at the high end, and DD and Lowry around .05-.06), and lower than a bunch of bench players (Siakam, Wright, Poeltl, BeBe, all near JV/Serge’s scores). The defensive end of WS doesn’t have as much spread, and generally is a small portion of overall WS (with exceptions of course), so the overall number is used for convenience, but you could isolate OWS if you wanted as a pure offensive production stat.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • #37
                DanH wrote: View Post
                The defensive side of WS is basically driven by minutes played and on-court defensive numbers (with a little bit of individual defence thrown in). So with Lowry and DD playing so many minutes, it’s not surprising they rack up a lot of DWS. If you look per minute, they are pretty much in line with the other starters (all between .05 to .075 DWS/48, with JV and Serge at the high end, and DD and Lowry around .05-.06), and lower than a bunch of bench players (Siakam, Wright, Poeltl, BeBe, all near JV/Serge’s scores). The defensive end of WS doesn’t have as much spread, and generally is a small portion of overall WS (with exceptions of course), so the overall number is used for convenience, but you could isolate OWS if you wanted as a pure offensive production stat.
                DWS is half of WS, although yeah, in the cases off offensive stars like DD, it makes up a small portion. But it rewards bad defenders who play a lot with multiple good defenders. Kyrie Irving has more Defensive Win Shares (2.1) than Draymond Green (1.9).
                If we knew half as much about coaching an NBA team as we think, we"d know twice as much as we do.

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                • #38
                  DanH wrote: View Post
                  No matter what stat you choose, it will overrate someone. Using outliers to determine what stats you use is a really bad idea.

                  I think the definition of greatest Raptor ever is broad enough that an assertion that Lowry is the more important player for the current Raps (and if that is still true, it is certainly closer than it has ever been before) does not remotely disqualify him from the discussion about the title of greatest Raptor of all time.
                  I agree. I don't see either DeRozan or Lowry as being outliers, in terms of WP, and think the stat compares them reasonably well, and better than WS. Curious about which impact stats you are referring to.

                  Lowry has been considerably better than DeRozan every year he has been here. DeRozan has never been the best player on the team in any year, and his usage rate has often hurt the team in past seasons. So any claim for greatest of all time, would depend on his future performance, this year is a great start in that direction.

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                  • #39
                    Quirk wrote: View Post
                    I agree. I don't see either DeRozan or Lowry as being outliers, in terms of WP, and think the stat compares them reasonably well, and better than WS. Curious about which impact stats you are referring to.

                    Lowry has been considerably better than DeRozan every year he has been here. DeRozan has never been the best player on the team in any year, and his usage rate has often hurt the team in past seasons. So any claim for greatest of all time, would depend on his future performance, this year is a great start in that direction.
                    RPM, BPM, any adjusted plus minus stat, really.
                    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                    • #40
                      Glad I started this! I've learned a whole lot about advanced statistics. In my opening comment I compared Derozan to Carter and Bosh; mainly because my perception was that most longtime Raptor fans would see those three as the main candidates for GROAT. Personally I've always felt Lowry was the better and more important player.....until this year. It remains to be determined if Demar's' remarkable improvement and Lowry's possible slight decline (others don't think that ) will continue throughout the season.

                      The common, readily available stats like points, rebounds etc are certainly what the casual fan will use in voting or comparing players. I'm glad the advanced stats show what a great player Lowry has been because that certainly has come across from watching every game and seeing his impact. Fans of other teams who only see him once or twice a year just wouldn't get that. I would love to see Kyle and Demar both finish their careers as Raptors and see numbers 7 and 10 in the rafters.

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                      • #41
                        Mitch P wrote: View Post
                        Glad I started this! I've learned a whole lot about advanced statistics. In my opening comment I compared Derozan to Carter and Bosh; mainly because my perception was that most longtime Raptor fans would see those three as the main candidates for GROAT. Personally I've always felt Lowry was the better and more important player.....until this year. It remains to be determined if Demar's' remarkable improvement and Lowry's possible slight decline (others don't think that ) will continue throughout the season.

                        The common, readily available stats like points, rebounds etc are certainly what the casual fan will use in voting or comparing players. I'm glad the advanced stats show what a great player Lowry has been because that certainly has come across from watching every game and seeing his impact. Fans of other teams who only see him once or twice a year just wouldn't get that. I would love to see Kyle and Demar both finish their careers as Raptors and see numbers 7 and 10 in the rafters.
                        I have it like this

                        1. Derozan
                        2. Carter
                        3. Lowry

                        4. Bosh

                        With Lowry on pace to pass carter by the end of this contract if all goes as expected
                        It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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