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Game #45: Toronto Raptors 109 - Minnesota Timberwolves 115

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  • Couldn't watch this one live. The refs were brutal but ultimately it shouldn't have really mattered. Raptors blew a KLOE performance. Want to chalk it up to a bad ref / second night of a B2B on the road thing.. but it really sucks that we keep losing these close games to good teams.

    And we really need to box out more. And that's not just on Poeltl. Siakam, DeMar, Miles, Ibaka, OG, Wright, etc.. they all need to box out. Hope Casey or his assistants drive that message home to these guys. It's not always about length/size.. it's about the will to get in front of your man and ensure they don't get the ball on a rebound.

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    • What is the Raptors record on the second game of back-to-backs this season? Seems like they always drop the second game.

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      • Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
        Gonna try to do the Raptors record against the top 8 teams (regardless of conference) the past 5 years and see what we get.

        2017-18 (GSW, BOS, HOU, SAS, MIN, CLE, MIA, OKC): 3-7 (TBD)
        2016-17 (GSW, SAS, HOU, BOS, CLE, UTA, LAC, WAS): 10-11 (Lost in 2nd round)
        2015-16 (GSW, SAS, CLE, OKC, LAC, MIA, ATL, BOS): 15-8 (Went to ECF)
        2014-15 (GSW, ATL, HOU, LAC, MEM, SAS, CLE, POR): 9-11 (Swept in Round 1)
        2013-14 (SAS, OKC, LAC, IND, MIA, HOU, POR, GSW): 5-15 (Lost in Round 1 in 7)

        Hard to really determine anything from that (I also might be slightly off, I did it pretty quickly). Our longest playoff run did coincide with our best year performing against the other top teams, but that doesn't really mean a lot. Also 2013-14 was really bad but you have to remember that we weren't even a top 8 team that year, we were 10th in terms of record.
        Good stuff, Shaolin. Micro sample size, but do I see a weak correlation. Now if you could also do the rest of the playoff teams vs. the other top 8 and top 16, then maybe we've got a playoff betting system. :-)

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        • LJ2 wrote: View Post
          What is the Raptors record on the second game of back-to-backs this season? Seems like they always drop the second game.
          3-4.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • Celtics lose to the Magic and have lost 3 in a row overall.
            Rockets beat the GS Warriors
            Thunder hang 148 on the Cavs

            No team is unbeatable
            Last edited by G__Deane; Mon Jan 22, 2018, 11:32 AM.

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            • planetmars wrote: View Post
              Couldn't watch this one live. The refs were brutal but ultimately it shouldn't have really mattered. Raptors blew a KLOE performance. Want to chalk it up to a bad ref / second night of a B2B on the road thing.. but it really sucks that we keep losing these close games to good teams.

              And we really need to box out more. And that's not just on Poeltl. Siakam, DeMar, Miles, Ibaka, OG, Wright, etc.. they all need to box out. Hope Casey or his assistants drive that message home to these guys. It's not always about length/size.. it's about the will to get in front of your man and ensure they don't get the ball on a rebound.
              Well, except the officiating played a role in the two areas that swung the game: free throws and rebounding. JV was nailed to the bench with fouls while the Wolves killed Raps on the glass. Raps were -13 at the line and gave up 15 ORB. So, the officiating did absolutely matter. It took a huge night from Lowry just to keep Toronto in a game they should have lost by 15.

              On a side note, every time Raps lose people are all over the offense. Well, the offense had 23 assists, shot 47% from the field, made 12 threes and scored 109 points. Offense really wasn't the issue.

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              • G__Deane wrote: View Post
                Celtics lose to the Magic and have lost 3 in a row overall.
                Rockets beat the GS Warriors
                Thunder hang 148 on the Cavs

                No team is unbeatable
                Watched that Cavs/OKC game. Cavs looked atrocious on defense. It was like that Raps game. Thunder got whatever they wanted. I haven't watched enough of the Lebrons to know if it's and effort thing or a scheme thing but, whatever it is, I don't think any offense is going to be able to overcome defense that bad.... they need to get that fixed.

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                • I'm not sure what would be worse, seeing the Cav's make it to yet another finals or seeing Boston come out of the East. I guess it would be Boston..

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                  • If it wasn't for the damn Warriors the finals would be so unpredictable this year.

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                    • LJ2 wrote: View Post
                      I'm not sure what would be worse, seeing the Cav's make it to yet another finals or seeing Boston come out of the East. I guess it would be Boston..
                      Boston, by far. It would fucking disgust me.

                      For LBJ it's just the norm, who cares.

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                      • Anyone but a Hayward-less Boston team. That would make me puke.

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                        • golden wrote: View Post
                          It would be interesting to compare a team's regular season record against top 'X' teams and then see if it correlated to playoff success in past seasons.
                          Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
                          Gonna try to do the Raptors record against the top 8 teams (regardless of conference) the past 5 years and see what we get.

                          2017-18 (GSW, BOS, HOU, SAS, MIN, CLE, MIA, OKC): 3-7 (TBD)
                          2016-17 (GSW, SAS, HOU, BOS, CLE, UTA, LAC, WAS): 10-11 (Lost in 2nd round)
                          2015-16 (GSW, SAS, CLE, OKC, LAC, MIA, ATL, BOS): 15-8 (Went to ECF)
                          2014-15 (GSW, ATL, HOU, LAC, MEM, SAS, CLE, POR): 9-11 (Swept in Round 1)
                          2013-14 (SAS, OKC, LAC, IND, MIA, HOU, POR, GSW): 5-15 (Lost in Round 1 in 7)

                          Hard to really determine anything from that (I also might be slightly off, I did it pretty quickly). Our longest playoff run did coincide with our best year performing against the other top teams, but that doesn't really mean a lot. Also 2013-14 was really bad but you have to remember that we weren't even a top 8 team that year, we were 10th in terms of record.
                          S.R. wrote: View Post
                          Anecdotally, I remember plenty of series previews where they try to sell the series with "Hey, (the team we all expect to lose) actually (had whatever head to head winning record) against (the team we all know is gonna win)."

                          Honestly I'm not taking much in terms of specifics, one way or the other, from this season into the playoffs. That's what I've gotten out of the last 4 springs with the Raptors.

                          I like the new style of play, we'll see where it leads. I think this is the best Raptors team yet, but all the usual caveats for postseason success apply.

                          I wouldn't really read too much into it even if there was a strong correlation. The playoffs are so much about matchups of course, and we've seen first hand that regular season success vs a team does not necessarily mean playoff success (14-15 vs the Wiz). But if you are thinking objectively about where the Raps rank amongst the best in the league, it's hard to ignore that 4-8 record. We have the second best record in the east, 4th overall and third by differential. But given that 4-8 blemish, that just tells me that the Raps do a really good job of beating the lesser teams but may be a bit overrated relative to the leagues best. We beat the teams we are supposed to beat, which is great, but so far we have struggled against the top teams that we will have to go through in the playoffs at some point.

                          When I looked into this, it sort of took my confidence in this team as a playoff contender down a notch, which is the only reason I bring it up. If you are going to attempt to anticipate or judge how this team will do in the playoffs, looking at our record against the bottom 20 teams may not be of much use. I think looking at our record against the best teams may be more useful, although it may not be reliable as well.

                          I'd like to see how the rest of those teams stack up against each other, and I'll probably report that if/when I get the chance.

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                          • Not sure why you used "top 8" instead of "top 16" or teams above .500. But there is some noise when the sample is so low. You have to take home vs road into consideration as well as strength of schedule/injuries/etc (for all teams involved).

                            Raptors are 13-12 against teams above .500 and that needs to improve for sure.

                            But for me the more important thing is home record; being in top 5 in both offense/defense; and the four factors (fg%, turnovers, rebounding, and ft%).

                            Raptors are 17-3 at home.

                            Raptors are 4th and 5th in offense/defense respectively.

                            Raptors are 5th in EFG%, 4th in TOV%, 9th in OREB%, and 13th in FTA rate (according to nba.com/stats).


                            Our rebounding is slipping. And that's the one area I'm most concerned with (especially if JV is not on the floor). We have a PG that loves grabbing boards, but the rest of the team are average to below average. Need to see someone else step up their game there.

                            To me this is the best Raptor team on paper. Crossing my fingers that we remain healthy up until the playoffs start.

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                            • planetmars wrote: View Post
                              Not sure why you used "top 8" instead of "top 16" or teams above .500. But there is some noise when the sample is so low. You have to take home vs road into consideration as well as strength of schedule/injuries/etc (for all teams involved).

                              Raptors are 13-12 against teams above .500 and that needs to improve for sure.

                              But for me the more important thing is home record; being in top 5 in both offense/defense; and the four factors (fg%, turnovers, rebounding, and ft%).

                              Raptors are 17-3 at home.

                              Raptors are 4th and 5th in offense/defense respectively.

                              Raptors are 5th in EFG%, 4th in TOV%, 9th in OREB%, and 13th in FTA rate (according to nba.com/stats).


                              Our rebounding is slipping. And that's the one area I'm most concerned with (especially if JV is not on the floor). We have a PG that loves grabbing boards, but the rest of the team are average to below average. Need to see someone else step up their game there.

                              To me this is the best Raptor team on paper. Crossing my fingers that we remain healthy up until the playoffs start.
                              I used top 10 actually. Just looked at the overall standings. of course alot could change before the season ends. And it isn't like they are not competing with these teams either. I'm not alarmed but it would be nice to get some more wins against them.

                              And I agree with everything you said. There is alot to love about this team and I would put them against any other Raps team. We are so good at so many things I just hope we convert that to wins against the better teams. We got 3 more vs BOS, 2 vs CLE, 1 vs HOU, MIN and OKC. I'm not really concerned about the rest of the league to be honest (excl GSW and SAS). 5-3 would nice, 6-2 or better would have the league on alert going into the playoffs.

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