Everything 2018 Off Season

[planetmars]

The only thing that gives me hope is nobody saw OKC coming after George last year. But usually there is some fuel on the fire. I mean there are usually never any leaks out of the Raptors camp but there were rumours circulating that we had interest in both Ibaka and Tucker, and we got them both.

[magoon]

I honestly don't want to expend any assets for Kawhi. If, magically, we could get him for free except having to pay luxury tax, then fine. But the dude quit on the Spurs, for crissake. There isn't an organization that takes better care of its players and not many that have a better pedigree. I honestly don't want to see the Raptors expend multiple assets for ten games of Kawhi before he decides that the ankle fairies can't let him play this season.

[planetmars]

I honestly don't want to expend any assets for Kawhi. If, magically, we could get him for free except having to pay luxury tax, then fine. But the dude quit on the Spurs, for crissake. There isn't an organization that takes better care of its players and not many that have a better pedigree. I honestly don't want to see the Raptors expend multiple assets for ten games of Kawhi before he decides that the ankle fairies can't let him play this season.

We have a two year window before we have to blow things up. If we can get a top 5 talent in the league than I think it's worth the shot. As long as we don't ship out blue chip prospects like OG and Siakam (and both of these guys might just be high end role players) than I'm fine with any package. To me Poeltl, Wright, DeMar, Serge, Powell, Miles are all expendable (for a guy like Kawhi). Even our 2019 pick would be too since it'll most likely be in the high 20's again.

[KeonClark]

We have a two year window before we have to blow things up. If we can get a top 5 talent in the league than I think it's worth the shot. As long as we don't ship out blue chip prospects like OG and Siakam (and both of these guys might just be high end role players) than I'm fine with any package. To me Poeltl, Wright, DeMar, Serge, Powell, Miles are all expendable (for a guy like Kawhi). Even our 2019 pick would be too since it'll most likely be in the high 20's again.

When did this window statement turn from idle speculation to factual statement? I don't agree that it's a guaranteed inevitability

[planetmars]

When did this window statement turn from idle speculation to factual statement? I don't agree that it's a guaranteed inevitability

It's just the way all the contracts are lined up. DeMar, Lowry, Serge and JV can all be free agents that summer. DeMar/JV have player options so might opt in, but the other two will be UFA's.

Masai was pretty careful in ensuring that the core had the same term. I'm just putting two and two together here. There is a chance that they are all back and retained. So of course nothing is set in stone.

[DanH]

It's just the way all the contracts are lined up. DeMar, Lowry, Serge and JV can all be free agents that summer. DeMar/JV have player options so might opt in, but the other two will be UFA's.

Masai was pretty careful in ensuring that the core had the same term. I'm just putting two and two together here. There is a chance that they are all back and retained. So of course nothing is set in stone.

JV's player option is not for year 4 of the window but year 3. So a year earlier than DD's. So all 4 contracts line up if JV opts in and DD opts out (which are the two likeliest scenarios, IMO).

[DanH]

I doubt there is any chance everyone is retained in summer 2020. But there is certainly a chance that, say, two of those core pieces are retained if they'll stay for reasonable deals. It depends on the direction chosen at that point.

Certainly, summer 2020 is the obvious decision point (even if the direction could be decided on a year earlier with those expiring deals), even if Keon is right to point out that "rebuild" is not the only decision they could come to at that point in time (though I think it likely, personally).

[DanH]

OK. Clippers do a deal to be competitive (why trade for Gortat unless you still want to be decent once DAJ is gone?). Mavs want to get DAJ and keep some cap room to play with. Raptors want a prospect, pick and solid role player return for DeRozan, and to shed long term salary.

DeRozan to Clips.
DAJ and Norman Powell to Mavs.
SGA, Matthews, Dwight Powell to Raps.

Clippers break even in salary, keep Harris (the core return on Griffin) and one of their recent lotto picks.

Mavs get DAJ, and swap 27M in salary in Matthews and Powell for a cheaper wing with upside on a 9M deal. That eats up only 6M of their cap room this summer, and lets them either take on a salary for assets (after getting the big FA they wanted) or signing a FA to complement the core they've put together. No sense in them not going for it, they don't have a pick next year unless they are bottom 5 (and they'd prefer to send the pick ASAP before that top 5 protection goes away). The price they pay for flexibility this summer is the long term salary on Powell's deal.

Raptors get a prospect they coveted, a wing role player on an expiring contract, and a very underrated PF (who happens to be Canadian - which helps along with SGA with the PR hit on moving DeMar). They shed long term salary, both next summer (which is important) and into the 2020's. They also shed a few million this year, which will help with re-signing FVV.

Raps would need to follow up by finding a landing place for Ibaka (I do think the Knicks would swap Noah + assets for him) or Powell could be flipped. But an overstuffed roster is not the worst place to be, so long as the salary is manageable.

Mavs just decided not to issue a QO to their RFA Doug McDermott. Another sign they are chasing cap space this summer.

[KeonClark]

I doubt there is any chance everyone is retained in summer 2020. But there is certainly a chance that, say, two of those core pieces are retained if they'll stay for reasonable deals. It depends on the direction chosen at that point.

Certainly, summer 2020 is the obvious decision point (even if the direction could be decided on a year earlier with those expiring deals), even if Keon is right to point out that "rebuild" is not the only decision they could come to at that point in time (though I think it likely, personally).

This is all based off "The Decline of Kyle Lowry"..Derozan will be 30 and should have old man strength & IQ by then, and JV will be 28, smack dab in Euro big man prime. I'm sure they'd be interested in coming back at market value. Now, Kyle is massively important, but there's probably 10 to 15 (don't need to get into specifics) that are more important than he is, and another 10 to 15 that are close to as important as he is and we're actively hoping for one of them to come here, now (obviously)

So a lot can happen in 2 years. But if I'm Masai I'm playing the long game and already planning to bridge to Life After Lowry. It'd be stupid to just head towards a cliff in 2 years, otherwise he'd probably start tanking sooner, as others had said. Masai strikes me as the type that will try to remain in the upper tiers first, second and third options, before "blow it up" becomes the plan A

[DanH]

This is all based off "The Decline of Kyle Lowry"..Derozan will be 30 and should have old man strength & IQ by then, and JV will be 28, smack dab in Euro big man prime. I'm sure they'd be interested in coming back at market value. Now, Kyle is massively important, but there's probably 10 to 15 (don't need to get into specifics) that are more important than he is, and another 10 to 15 that are close to as important as he is and we're actively hoping for one of them to come here, now (obviously)

So a lot can happen in 2 years. But if I'm Masai I'm playing the long game and already planning to bridge to Life After Lowry. It'd be stupid to just head towards a cliff in 2 years, otherwise he'd probably start tanking sooner, as others had said. Masai strikes me as the type that will try to remain in the upper tiers first, second and third options, before "blow it up" becomes the plan A

Well, the whole point of not doing too much now is you get one more season (or two) of data on how much IQ DeRozan is gaining with time, how much improvement JV can make heading into his prime, and how quickly exactly Lowry's deal drops off. Personally, I'm optimistic about the latter two far more than the first, but I and everyone else would be a lot more confident in judgments like that a year from now than right now, or even a year after that. Not doing stuff now doesn't mean not tanking, it just means exploring all your options.

[KeonClark]

Well, the whole point of not doing too much now is you get one more season (or two) of data on how much IQ DeRozan is gaining with time, how much improvement JV can make heading into his prime, and how quickly exactly Lowry's deal drops off. Personally, I'm optimistic about the latter two far more than the first, but I and everyone else would be a lot more confident in judgments like that a year from now than right now, or even a year after that. Not doing stuff now doesn't mean not tanking, it just means exploring all your options.

Right, and I don't want that one sentence to mean too much, like anything Masai plans is showing itself already. But I do believe that "blow it up in 2 years" is plan D, at best.

[DanH]

Right, and I don't want that one sentence to mean too much, like anything Masai plans is showing itself already. But I do believe that "blow it up in 2 years" is plan D, at best.

See, that's where we disagree. I don't think there's a plan A, B, C and D in that order. I think those plans exist, but not in any order, and the development of the team, players, trade opportunities and markets will ultimately determine the path taken, not any sort of predetermined preference. And my judgment of the likely (IMO) development of those considerations means to me that a rebuild is the most likely occurrence at that point.

[A.I]

See, that's where we disagree. I don't think there's a plan A, B, C and D in that order. I think those plans exist, but not in any order, and the development of the team, players, trade opportunities and markets will ultimately determine the path taken, not any sort of predetermined preference. And my judgment of the likely (IMO) development of those considerations means to me that a rebuild is the most likely occurrence at that point.

I don’t think a rebuild is guaranteed, but I also don’t think its a coincidence that Lowry, DD and Ibaka will be free agents at the same time.

[saints91]

But I do believe that "blow it up in 2 years" is plan D, at best.

I strongly believe it will be blow it up in 1 year.

The worst thing Masai can do is let players walk for nothing. That’s why I think next offseason is the crucial off season. Well I don’t think we will “tank” I do think next summer is the summer we move in a new direction. Barring some kind of amazing playoff run or performance in 2018/2019

[planetmars]

The @Raptors have extended qualifying offers to Fred Van Vleet, Malcolm Miller, and Nando De Colo to retain their restricted free agent rights.

— RaptorsMR (@RaptorsMR) June 27, 2018

Bebe becomes a UFA