Everything 2018 Off Season

[inthepaint]

So the 4 picks.. are they going to be any good? You'll have Lebron and Kawhi (in his prime) on the same team. I mean how good are those picks going to be in those 4 years (assuming they are in consecutive years)?

And the players were always going to be the players.

Not saying LA should do it.. but this is Kawhi Leonard. Top 3/4 wing in the NBA. It would give me pause as a GM. Might try to save at least one of the picks to use for a trade later on.. but if cap space might be an issue in 2019 I'd really think hard about it.

What's the downside for the Lakers to wait another year and just sign him without having to give all that up?

[Ebonhawke]

What's the downside for the Lakers to wait another year and just sign him without having to give all that up?

Especially when LeBron has a 4 year deal in LaLa land and it's unlikely that the Lakers would be able to upset the Rockets or Warriors in the playoffs this year

[white men can't jump]

What's the downside for the Lakers to wait another year and just sign him without having to give all that up?

The downside is the Paul George scenario. Kawhi ends up getting traded somewhere else, decides he likes it there and re-signs there instead.

San Antonio appears to be holding Kawhi for quite a hefty ransom, though. They may want to dissuade teams so Kawhi starts the season with them and they try to repair the relationship. Or trying to drive the bids up. Or a bit of both.

[Demographic Shift]

That's some demographic shift level spin. I'm sure brad Stevens will figure out how to mix in 2 veteran all stars. Tatums minutes will be fine, Brown looks like a role playing scorer who will be fine off the bench

and a fine spin it is..... but it hits on two things that have to be on the minds of the celtics braintrust especially after the Isiah Thomas hip problems...... Knees and ankles and legs aren't modular... You just don't swap in a new one.

Its Irvings third knee surgery and that was one god awful break that Hayward had....they will be missing something... to what degree will be answered in a few months time.

[The Great One]

So the 4 picks.. are they going to be any good? You'll have Lebron and Kawhi (in his prime) on the same team. I mean how good are those picks going to be in those 4 years (assuming they are in consecutive years)?

And the players were always going to be the players.

Not saying LA should do it.. but this is Kawhi Leonard. Top 3/4 wing in the NBA. It would give me pause as a GM. Might try to save at least one of the picks to use for a trade later on.. but if cap space might be an issue in 2019 I'd really think hard about it.

I don't think its about the picks. It's about the players. They're pretty high on Kuzma and Ingram.

[psrs1]

Here is the thing: the team is too good to tank. Seriously, I feel the need to stress this: the team ran up 59 wins last season, with mostly young players still finding their footing and some vets who didn't contribute nearly as much as their salaries would dictate (e.g. Ibaka and Miles). They'll probably be even better as a team this year. Trade Ibaka for player(s) who will actually give you $20m worth of wins and the team will probably improve even more.

If you're going for a rebuild, it's because you want a superstar. But you mostly get a superstar by being really bad. Sure, you can accumulate a lot of first-round draft picks, but any competent GM protects first-rounders that they trade away in the event that they become really bad, unless the team is so good that being bad is extremely unlikely. Most superstar players tend to wind up on bad teams who drafted them with their own picks: the only exceptions in recent memory are Giannis (#16 with the Bucks, and that was a big gamble on a very uncertain prospect that paid off) and Jayson Tatum (and this assumes Tatum is a superstar, which - look, he's gonna be a really good player, but is he superstar level? I do not know), who I'll count because he was the result of trading away a #1 overall pick (and only dropping to #3 in any case), which was part of the Brooklyn Nets trade which, as I have said before, is not a duplicable event.

Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons got drafted with the 76ers' own picks. The Wolves drafted Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns with their own picks. The Knicks landed Porzingis with their own pick. Portland drafted Lillard and McCollum with their own picks. New Orleans drafted AD with their own pick. And so on and so forth.

I keep seeing "let's trade Lowry and DeRozan and Ibaka and maybe JV and tank" like you people don't watch the fucking games and weren't hanging out on RR forums or r/torontoraptors or what have you rhapsodizing about the Bench Mob, who were, and I can't believe you've all forgotten this, often better than many teams' starters. And this coming year, they will all be better: Siakam and Wright's shots both got better as the year progressed, OG got better at playmaking, Poeltl's handles got better, etc. Because they play for a team that has a good idea of how to develop players, and they've been developing all along.

You run the Bench Mob out as your starters, sorry to tell you, you're not tanking. You're running a 38-44 win team that will at least contend for a #6-8 seed in the playoffs, and your own draft picks will be mediocre mid-round picks, maybe the bottom of the lottery if you're lucky. That's what "the treadmill" actually used to mean before people here redefined it to mean "winning almost 75% of regular season games but we can't beat the greatest basketball player of all time or a team that has 5/5 All-NBA starters so what's the point."

If you want to tank, you have to trade basically everybody except OG and let him be the star going forward and see if he rises. That team might be bad enough to get a bunch of star-level picks - although it'll be harder now that they've revised the draft lottery odds so the baddest teams are less likely to get the best picks - but the league hated Philly for The Process and Adam Silver won't be happy about seeing a team try it again, to say the least, and why piss people off when it's not even for an especially good reason?

I'm not crazy. I think we have ridiculously long odds to beat the Warriors (or whomever comes out of the West, but really - the Warriors). But if we get a couple of Finals appearances in the next few years, there's a lot worse in basketball than being this generation's Utah Jazz, you know?

Great post. Just get a Finals appearance. Then we are not the Hawks or Pacers of years gone past.

[Puffer]

Here is the thing: the team is too good to tank. Seriously, I feel the need to stress this: the team ran up 59 wins last season, with mostly young players still finding their footing and some vets who didn't contribute nearly as much as their salaries would dictate (e.g. Ibaka and Miles). They'll probably be even better as a team this year. Trade Ibaka for player(s) who will actually give you $20m worth of wins and the team will probably improve even more.

If you're going for a rebuild, it's because you want a superstar. But you mostly get a superstar by being really bad. Sure, you can accumulate a lot of first-round draft picks, but any competent GM protects first-rounders that they trade away in the event that they become really bad, unless the team is so good that being bad is extremely unlikely. Most superstar players tend to wind up on bad teams who drafted them with their own picks: the only exceptions in recent memory are Giannis (#16 with the Bucks, and that was a big gamble on a very uncertain prospect that paid off) and Jayson Tatum (and this assumes Tatum is a superstar, which - look, he's gonna be a really good player, but is he superstar level? I do not know), who I'll count because he was the result of trading away a #1 overall pick (and only dropping to #3 in any case), which was part of the Brooklyn Nets trade which, as I have said before, is not a duplicable event.

Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons got drafted with the 76ers' own picks. The Wolves drafted Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns with their own picks. The Knicks landed Porzingis with their own pick. Portland drafted Lillard and McCollum with their own picks. New Orleans drafted AD with their own pick. And so on and so forth.

I keep seeing "let's trade Lowry and DeRozan and Ibaka and maybe JV and tank" like you people don't watch the fucking games and weren't hanging out on RR forums or r/torontoraptors or what have you rhapsodizing about the Bench Mob, who were, and I can't believe you've all forgotten this, often better than many teams' starters. And this coming year, they will all be better: Siakam and Wright's shots both got better as the year progressed, OG got better at playmaking, Poeltl's handles got better, etc. Because they play for a team that has a good idea of how to develop players, and they've been developing all along.

You run the Bench Mob out as your starters, sorry to tell you, you're not tanking. You're running a 38-44 win team that will at least contend for a #6-8 seed in the playoffs, and your own draft picks will be mediocre mid-round picks, maybe the bottom of the lottery if you're lucky. That's what "the treadmill" actually used to mean before people here redefined it to mean "winning almost 75% of regular season games but we can't beat the greatest basketball player of all time or a team that has 5/5 All-NBA starters so what's the point."

If you want to tank, you have to trade basically everybody except OG and let him be the star going forward and see if he rises. That team might be bad enough to get a bunch of star-level picks - although it'll be harder now that they've revised the draft lottery odds so the baddest teams are less likely to get the best picks - but the league hated Philly for The Process and Adam Silver won't be happy about seeing a team try it again, to say the least, and why piss people off when it's not even for an especially good reason?

I'm not crazy. I think we have ridiculously long odds to beat the Warriors (or whomever comes out of the West, but really - the Warriors). But if we get a couple of Finals appearances in the next few years, there's a lot worse in basketball than being this generation's Utah Jazz, you know?

Magoon, this is far and away your BEST POST EVER. Thank you.

[DanH]

So, the Spurs are making demands they know won’t be met. Which means when they get an offer from the East, they’ll probably take a lot less than that. They just want to screw the Lakers, and not give in to Leonard’s demands.

This opens up two possibilities.

First, the obvious, is to trade for Kawhi with a package we’ve been describing for some time (DeMar plus prospects), then play out the year and try to re-sign him.

Second, flip Kawhi to the Lakers for a package that beats what you give up, but isn’t as ridiculous as what the Spurs ask for.

I think I’d prefer option 1, but if Masai thinks there’s absolutely no chance he re-signs... might be able to extract a net return better than DeMar can fetch on his own.

For example, if DeMar, Wright, Poeltl, Powell gets you Gasol and Kawhi. And then you flip Kawhi for Deng, Ingram, and two first rounders (2019 and 2021 unprotected), leaving them Kuzma and Hart and some of their picks. Raps shed salary, especially long term, and upgrade from two rotation prospects to a potential star and two unprotected firsts (which, admittedly, are likely to be middling, but that can change and teams only leave picks unprotected when they think they will be middling). It’s not ideal, but if the Raps are concerned about salary in 2020, this move clears a good bit of that while netting them a top prospect.

I feel like I’ve talked myself out of this while typing. Still, thought the concept was worth bringing up. Only works if you get a good deal on the first Kawhi trade, which requires the Spurs to like DeMar. Long shot.

[Maury]

So, the Spurs are making demands they know won’t be met. Which means when they get an offer from the East, they’ll probably take a lot less than that. They just want to screw the Lakers, and not give in to Leonard’s demands.

This opens up two possibilities.

First, the obvious, is to trade for Kawhi with a package we’ve been describing for some time (DeMar plus prospects), then play out the year and try to re-sign him.

Second, flip Kawhi to the Lakers for a package that beats what you give up, but isn’t as ridiculous as what the Spurs ask for.

I think I’d prefer option 1, but if Masai thinks there’s absolutely no chance he re-signs... might be able to extract a net return better than DeMar can fetch on his own.

For example, if DeMar, Wright, Poeltl, Powell gets you Gasol and Kawhi. And then you flip Kawhi for Deng, Ingram, and two first rounders (2019 and 2021 unprotected), leaving them Kuzma and Hart and some of their picks. Raps shed salary, especially long term, and upgrade from two rotation prospects to a potential star and two unprotected firsts (which, admittedly, are likely to be middling, but that can change and teams only leave picks unprotected when they think they will be middling). It’s not ideal, but if the Raps are concerned about salary in 2020, this move clears a good bit of that while netting them a top prospect.

I feel like I’ve talked myself out of this while typing. Still, thought the concept was worth bringing up. Only works if you get a good deal on the first Kawhi trade, which requires the Spurs to like DeMar. Long shot.

I think if in this scenario we want to trade Kawhi, then the Lakers know that he likely won’t be resigning with us and will therefore just wait until he’s a free agent and sign him at no cost of players. If we are able to get Kawhi, it’s an all in move in my opinion.

All this being said, I highly doubt we are even a player in the Kawhi market. I just don’t see it happening, I always get my hopes up over these kind of things (Milsap, Butler, cousins etc.). I love Masai but he could afford to be a little more aggressive when it comes to jumping at the opportunity to acquire a superstar.

[Just Is]

Dan and I were just chatting about his on twitter:

DeRozan, Poeltl, Delon, 2019 1st for Butler and Dieng.

To me, if the Raptors have some assurance Butler can be convinced to stay past this season, that makes a lot of sense for both teams.

That seems like a lot to give up for Butler but I think it will take a lot to get him since it took a lot for Mini to grab him. Honestly think adding him and replacing Demar instantly makes the team better and opens up way more avenues for us offensively and defensively.

I think I'd like the trade moreso like: Butler and Dieng for Demar, Delon, Powell and a protected 2019 first or unprotected second.

Depends which end of the court you're watching. Butler's made 4 All-Defensive (2nd) teams. DeRozan's the worst defensive player in his starting lineup, possibly on his team's entire roster.

Honestly ... I'm not sure it's debatable any more where he ranks defensively on the team (of the core players who saw run).

[GLF]

I am excited about our young guys. I don't know about y'all but I will thoroughly enjoy watching raps play next season, even if they keep this exact team in tact. Our young guys we so good last season and in the playoffs. In terms of playoffs it was mainly OG, Delon and Pascal that played well but still. They could have been more consistent but hey they're young players in their first playoffs. They played well overall and they are only going to get even better. I probably believe in Nurse a little more than I should but a change is very refreshing because Dwane was getting beyond annoying in my opinion. If Nurse can find a way to use JV, Serge and CJ better and actually put them in positions to succeed that will help us tremendously. Whether it's playing them less because they're not producing or using them correctly and more creatively.

And I just love hearing that he wants to try a lot of different things and lineups through out the season so when the playoffs come we know what works and what doesn't and what we should and shouldn't do. Dwane Casey was always searching during playoff time and trying things out then. He also wasn't creative enough so he wouldn't be able to change things on the fly. Perfect example was him watching CJ getting demolished by Love for like 5-6 possessions in a row and literally changed NOTHING. Smh. I'm still heated about the many HUGE mistakes he made in that Cleveland series. And they were such obvious dumb things. Maybe Nurse will be more of the same who knows but I choose to believe he will be much better just from reading up on him and hearing him talk about his plans for this team. Also his offence more than stood the test in the playoffs. It was the defence and Demar and Serge disappearing in that Cleveland series that fucked us up. Casey was a huge reason too so thank God at least one of the 3 problems are gone.

My only worry with Nurse is the defence, but it's not like Casey's defence stood up in the playoffs either. I like that Nurse said he's going to try and find a defence that suites our style of play on offence (fast paced up and down style). And he's also hinted to putting guys in positions to succeed on that end and finding a mix of zone and man defence. I don't know, I like the things I'm hearing from Nurse and I love our young guys, Kyle and JV. People are truly sleeping on how amazing of a playoffs Kyle had. He isn't the level of player that can put his team on his back and win them games single handedly anymore. I think because of that and because we underachieved once again his play gets forgotten, but he proved that the shortened minutes did him wonders. I'm going to enjoy this team next season and wish more of y'all could or would too. For me it isn't championship or bust and I guess that might be why I'm able to. If raps winning the championship is the only thing that will make you happy you might as well move on and find another team to cheer for.

Oh and if we have a healthy Fred in the playoffs this upcoming season who knows what we can do next year with no Lebron. I'm excited! Go Raps! Now Demar just get your fucking shit together and actually try on defence next season and playoffs (because when he does he's at least and average defender and that's all we really need from him) and get your three point shot to a respectable 35% lol. That's all I ask hahaha. Even though he did shoot the 3 well in the Washington series surprisingly. He actually played okay in that series overall. Not great but not terrible. But believe me if Masai finds a way to get rid of him I will not be mad at all. Really like the guy and he's a good player but his game just doesn't suit the direction we are trying to go. Let's hope he improves again next season like he always finds a way to do. But this time in the ways that we actually really need him too, aka defence and 3 point shooting. Doubt it obviously but one can hope lol.

[Scraptor]

Here is the thing: the team is too good to tank. Seriously, I feel the need to stress this: the team ran up 59 wins last season, with mostly young players still finding their footing and some vets who didn't contribute nearly as much as their salaries would dictate (e.g. Ibaka and Miles). They'll probably be even better as a team this year. Trade Ibaka for player(s) who will actually give you $20m worth of wins and the team will probably improve even more.

If you're going for a rebuild, it's because you want a superstar. But you mostly get a superstar by being really bad. Sure, you can accumulate a lot of first-round draft picks, but any competent GM protects first-rounders that they trade away in the event that they become really bad, unless the team is so good that being bad is extremely unlikely. Most superstar players tend to wind up on bad teams who drafted them with their own picks: the only exceptions in recent memory are Giannis (#16 with the Bucks, and that was a big gamble on a very uncertain prospect that paid off) and Jayson Tatum (and this assumes Tatum is a superstar, which - look, he's gonna be a really good player, but is he superstar level? I do not know), who I'll count because he was the result of trading away a #1 overall pick (and only dropping to #3 in any case), which was part of the Brooklyn Nets trade which, as I have said before, is not a duplicable event.

Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons got drafted with the 76ers' own picks. The Wolves drafted Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns with their own picks. The Knicks landed Porzingis with their own pick. Portland drafted Lillard and McCollum with their own picks. New Orleans drafted AD with their own pick. And so on and so forth.

I keep seeing "let's trade Lowry and DeRozan and Ibaka and maybe JV and tank" like you people don't watch the fucking games and weren't hanging out on RR forums or r/torontoraptors or what have you rhapsodizing about the Bench Mob, who were, and I can't believe you've all forgotten this, often better than many teams' starters. And this coming year, they will all be better: Siakam and Wright's shots both got better as the year progressed, OG got better at playmaking, Poeltl's handles got better, etc. Because they play for a team that has a good idea of how to develop players, and they've been developing all along.

You run the Bench Mob out as your starters, sorry to tell you, you're not tanking. You're running a 38-44 win team that will at least contend for a #6-8 seed in the playoffs, and your own draft picks will be mediocre mid-round picks, maybe the bottom of the lottery if you're lucky. That's what "the treadmill" actually used to mean before people here redefined it to mean "winning almost 75% of regular season games but we can't beat the greatest basketball player of all time or a team that has 5/5 All-NBA starters so what's the point."

If you want to tank, you have to trade basically everybody except OG and let him be the star going forward and see if he rises. That team might be bad enough to get a bunch of star-level picks - although it'll be harder now that they've revised the draft lottery odds so the baddest teams are less likely to get the best picks - but the league hated Philly for The Process and Adam Silver won't be happy about seeing a team try it again, to say the least, and why piss people off when it's not even for an especially good reason?

I'm not crazy. I think we have ridiculously long odds to beat the Warriors (or whomever comes out of the West, but really - the Warriors). But if we get a couple of Finals appearances in the next few years, there's a lot worse in basketball than being this generation's Utah Jazz, you know?

The bench mob vs starting calibre lineups in the NBA is not going to be a 38-44 win team.

FVV/Powell/OG/Siakam/Poeltl with a shitty bench is a 25 win team. Maybe 30. They looked great and had amazing advanced stats because they outplayed poor benches; they aren't going to defeat starter squads on a .500 basis.

Go through last year's schedule and see who we lose to with those starters and you can easily knock off 35 wins.

And now that the rules have changed to flatter lottery odds, not going to a 15-win scorched earth team works in our favour.

Comparing this team to the Jazz is also foolish. The Jazz had literally two of the all time best players to play their positions in Stockton and Malone. We don't have anyone remotely resembling that calibre of player.

The Jazz took the Bulls to six twice. If we were to miraculously make the Finals, we'd likely get swept by an average of 30 points a game and become infamous for yet another dubious achievement, like largest margin of loss in the Finals ever. This year we earned such a black mark for the earliest playoff sweep by a number 1 seed.

It's time to stop settling for moral victories and to chart an actual path to contention rather than flying by the seat of our pants. Any objective observer would say we have no shot at a title for the next few years; why not prepare for 3-5 years from now? If we put off what's necessary now, we'll get surpassed by the next wave of up-and-comers, and will be looking at true contention 5-7 years from now.

Not to mention that making the Finals isn't even guaranteed the next two years. If we lose to Boston or Philly, these two years are more time wasted. And there's a pretty serious risk that if we don't make any headway, our already-limited assets walk for no return, which is what happened to the Atlanta Hawks.

"Sit back and enjoy the ride" is just avoiding what's difficult now at the expense of the future imo.

[magoon]

What's the downside for the Lakers to wait another year and just sign him without having to give all that up?

LeBron is 33, and everybody acts like he's immortal because he's the greatest basketball player of all time and he's learned to tailor his game to his age. Kobe Bryant did exactly the same thing, right up until he started getting serious injuries when he was 34, and then he was never the same again.

Sometimes basketball players age like Tim Duncan. Sometimes it's a sharp shock and you're Kobe. The Lakers are not spending $154 million on LeBron James to waste even a single year.

[Other Scott]

LeBron is 33, and everybody acts like he's immortal because he's the greatest basketball player of all time and he's learned to tailor his game to his age. Kobe Bryant did exactly the same thing, right up until he started getting serious injuries when he was 34, and then he was never the same again.

Sometimes basketball players age like Tim Duncan. Sometimes it's a sharp shock and you're Kobe. The Lakers are not spending $154 million on LeBron James to waste even a single year.

On the other side of that though, if Lebron breaks down and things go south on that Lakers team, and you've traded 4 first round picks away....

Congratulations, you just made the Nets trade.

[chris]

...Philly replaced Marco Bellinelli and Ersan Ilyasova with Wilson Chandler and Zhaire Smith, which is probably better, but it's not "holy shit they're so much better now" better....

Sure, they're somewhat better, but the reason they're better is because they were able to replace bad players with better players. Masai is trying to replace good players with better players, and that's harder to do.

do you think maybe ben simmons and joel embiid will get a little better next year, or they're done growing?

or rather, since i could guess how you'll respond to that, do you expect our two best and most important players to improve as much as philly's two best and most important players?

if the answer's no then i'd say philly has either gained a lot of ground on us or pulled quite a bit further ahead, depending on one's perspective.