Everything 2018 Off Season

[magoon]

Really, there's only two basic ways any Kawhi trade with the Raptors works. Either DeMar goes to the spurs or Ibaka does; you need one of their salaries to make the money work. If DeMar goes out, the Raptors should pay much less because they're trading an All-NBA player for a one-season rental of a player with a history of what appears to be bad faith conduct (hence the "Raptors get a first-rounder back" in that proposed trade structure); if Ibaka goes out, they should pay more.

If the Raptors end up taking on more salary than they send out to absorb Pau Gasol or Patty Mills' contracts and give the Spurs some cap room to, say, offer Marcus Smart an offer sheet that Boston can't realistically afford to match but would still represent good value, that should reduce Toronto's payment price as well.

If it's DeMar, him plus Delon and Jakob for Kawhi and Patty Mills is extremely fair value; if SA wants to offload Pau instead that's fine but that should be a pick coming back to Toronto. If it's Ibaka, then him plus OG and an outgoing first for Kawhi is fair value. That's about market value right now.

(Bear in mind LA's best offer was apparently Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, a pair of (probably late) firsts and Luol Deng's worthless salary; these Toronto bids are about roughly equivalent to that in terms of value. Philly's best bid seems to have been Dario Saric, Markelle Fultz and Jerryd Bayless plus maybe some picks, which is probably better if you think Fultz is going to be good and worse if you don't.)

[charlesnba23]

If there is a way that it is Lowry... then we would need a PG... how about going all in with guys whose contracts are ending in 2019... Let's go get Kemba and form a big 3 of Kemba, DeMar and Kawhi... that would be insane, whatever we would need to throw away! NBA finals, baby!

[DanH]

Really, there's only two basic ways any Kawhi trade with the Raptors works. Either DeMar goes to the spurs or Ibaka does; you need one of their salaries to make the money work. If DeMar goes out, the Raptors should pay much less because they're trading an All-NBA player for a one-season rental of a player with a history of what appears to be bad faith conduct (hence the "Raptors get a first-rounder back" in that proposed trade structure); if Ibaka goes out, they should pay more.

If the Raptors end up taking on more salary than they send out to absorb Pau Gasol or Patty Mills' contracts and give the Spurs some cap room to, say, offer Marcus Smart an offer sheet that Boston can't realistically afford to match but would still represent good value, that should reduce Toronto's payment price as well.

If it's DeMar, him plus Delon and Jakob for Kawhi and Patty Mills is extremely fair value; if SA wants to offload Pau instead that's fine but that should be a pick coming back to Toronto. If it's Ibaka, then him plus OG and an outgoing first for Kawhi is fair value. That's about market value right now.

(Bear in mind LA's best offer was apparently Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, a pair of (probably late) firsts and Luol Deng's worthless salary; these Toronto bids are about roughly equivalent to that in terms of value. Philly's best bid seems to have been Dario Saric, Markelle Fultz and Jerryd Bayless plus maybe some picks, which is probably better if you think Fultz is going to be good and worse if you don't.)

Pretty sure the reports were that Philly was refusing to include Fultz in their offers.

[Scraptor]

Really, there's only two basic ways any Kawhi trade with the Raptors works. Either DeMar goes to the spurs or Ibaka does; you need one of their salaries to make the money work. If DeMar goes out, the Raptors should pay much less because they're trading an All-NBA player for a one-season rental of a player with a history of what appears to be bad faith conduct (hence the "Raptors get a first-rounder back" in that proposed trade structure); if Ibaka goes out, they should pay more.

If the Raptors end up taking on more salary than they send out to absorb Pau Gasol or Patty Mills' contracts and give the Spurs some cap room to, say, offer Marcus Smart an offer sheet that Boston can't realistically afford to match but would still represent good value, that should reduce Toronto's payment price as well.

If it's DeMar, him plus Delon and Jakob for Kawhi and Patty Mills is extremely fair value; if SA wants to offload Pau instead that's fine but that should be a pick coming back to Toronto. If it's Ibaka, then him plus OG and an outgoing first for Kawhi is fair value. That's about market value right now.

(Bear in mind LA's best offer was apparently Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, a pair of (probably late) firsts and Luol Deng's worthless salary; these Toronto bids are about roughly equivalent to that in terms of value. Philly's best bid seems to have been Dario Saric, Markelle Fultz and Jerryd Bayless plus maybe some picks, which is probably better if you think Fultz is going to be good and worse if you don't.)

There are a lot more ways than that. Kawhi is only making $20 million this year.

You could just send JV + OG + picks and the salaries would work.

Further, because of the player option, DeMar only has one more guaranteed year than Kawhi. All this talk of DeMar's long term contract is misleading.

Many here are saying the Spurs have no leverage but they have three other interested suitors. If you get too cute someone else will take advantage.

[rebelrouser89]

https://twitter.com/FTFonFS1/status/1017724794102575104

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[DanH]

There are a lot more ways than that. Kawhi is only making $20 million this year.

You could just send JV + OG + picks and the salaries would work.

Further, because of the player option, DeMar only has one more guaranteed year than Kawhi. All this talk of DeMar's long term contract is misleading.

Many here are saying the Spurs have no leverage but they have three other interested suitors. If you get too cute someone else will take advantage.

Most points about DeMar is he is on a longER term contract. Kawhi will not play for the Spurs this year, nor re-sign with them, so they would be trading zero games of Kawhi for two (or more) years of DeRozan.

I fully agree you shouldn't get too cute here. Make a solid offer - DeMar, a couple of secondary prospects, a pick. I wouldn't send OG, personally, though I'd understand if they did (and assume Masai really thinks he can convince Kawhi to stay long term).

[Demographic Shift]

There are a lot more ways than that. Kawhi is only making $20 million this year.

You could just send JV + OG + picks and the salaries would work.

Further, because of the player option, DeMar only has one more guaranteed year than Kawhi. All this talk of DeMar's long term contract is misleading.

Many here are saying the Spurs have no leverage but they have three other interested suitors. If you get too cute someone else will take advantage.

And if the Spurs wait to long the market can contract... It appears from media reports that the raps are in the game...
Spurs have to decide who of the bidders have put forward their walk away offer and who they might be able to squeeze for a little bit more...

[Scraptor]

It is way too much. Demar has a long term deal and kawhi is a 50/50 rental with serious baggage. Never understood why people are adding 2 or 3 or even 4 more valuable appreciating assets

Most points about DeMar is he is on a longER term contract. Kawhi will not play for the Spurs this year, nor re-sign with them, so they would be trading zero games of Kawhi for two (or more) years of DeRozan.

I fully agree you shouldn't get too cute here. Make a solid offer - DeMar, a couple of secondary prospects, a pick. I wouldn't send OG, personally, though I'd understand if they did (and assume Masai really thinks he can convince Kawhi to stay long term).

Keon on the last page literally said it was a long term deal vs a rental. Others like magoon make the same comparison, framing Kawhi as a rental. Which from our perspective is not truly reflective of the situation, given that we only have one extra guaranteed year of DeMar.

[DanH]

Keon on the last page literally said it was a long term deal vs a rental. Others like magoon make the same comparison, framing Kawhi as a rental. Which from our perspective is not truly reflective of the situation, given that we only have one extra guaranteed year of DeMar.

Ah, this is true - I was definitely thinking in terms of benefit to the Spurs.

Now, I do think DeRozan is basically a lock to re-sign here once he hits free agency, so the long term versus rental argument is fine, IMO. But I also expect his price would go up from his current already-too-much, so there is a real question whether that longer term is a good thing or a bad thing - in other words, whether the Raptors even want that (and therefore would even re-sign him).

[Demographic Shift]

Here's a point I just made on twitter:

The other 3 big contenders for Kawhi, the Lakers, Celtics and Sixers, all have reasons not to trade for a potential rental. They have long futures with their cores.

The Raptors are two years away from a reset button right now anyways. A rental carries less risk for them, so they can afford to make a bigger offer.

There are both emotional and logical reasons in every deal.

Emotion is that Demar for the third time in the playoffs didn’t live up to expectations. The gap between expectations and what actually happened against Cleveland this year cost Casey his job and put DD on notice.

Logically your spot on...DD has exactly one more gauranteed year with the Raps than Leonard would If this rumoured trade comes about. The manner in which the contracts to DD, KL, JV, Serge are structured says the Raps as currently constructed will change in two years time. All the Raps are doing is taking a year off that inevitable decision point. If Leonard stays on for longer it’s a clear win for the club.

[planetmars]

I would not give up a 1st rounder, we had no picks this year and cant afford to not have any next year... I dont mind a 2nd rounder but not first...

The pick we gave up this summer would have been 29th in the draft. If we get Kawhi.. it would probably in the high 20's in 2019 as well. It's a loss but not a significant one. The risk/concern would be giving up a 2020 pick or higher.. Kawhi may leave and/or the team my start rebuilding. We need those picks since we'll be bad potentially.

I don't mind giving up the 2019 pick at all for a guy like Kawhi.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

I would not give up a 1st rounder, we had no picks this year and cant afford to not have any next year... I dont mind a 2nd rounder but not first...

Man that is sunk cost fallacy right there. The fact that we had no pick in 2018 has no relevance or bearing on whether or not we should use our 2019 1st in a trade. The fact is, unless we're ravaged by injuries, even if Kawhi doesn't play a single game for us that's probably an early 20s pick at the highest. If we're fully healthy it's 25-30th. We're not talking about a lottery selection here.

I suggested this trade a while back but what I'd do is Kawhi for DeRozan, Wright, Poeltl and our 2019 1st. To make the money work I'd take back Danny Green if they're actually willing to include him, if not the most I'd do is agree to bite the bullet on the roughly $34M that Pau's owed over the next 2 years.

You then have a lineup of

Lowry/FVV
Kawhi/Powell
OG/Miles
Ibaka/Siakam
JV/Gasol

[jimmie]

Trading for Leonard is a strange proposition for a GM like Ujiri who values consistency, growth, and loyalty (both ways) - the only way it makes sense in the context of everything we've heard and seen from MU is if he's sure Leonard a) is healthy, and b) will re-sign. If those 2 conditions are met, then sending out DD along with Wright, Poeltl, and/or even OG makes sense. Although I'd still rather see Lowry go, and get a look at a Derozan/Kawhi backcourt in Nurse's system with Fred running the point (please no replies about why Lowry is better, I've read them all and agree to some point, but personally would still rather see DD stay and KL go).

Any other scenario - he's not fully healthy and doesn't play a full season; he bolts for LA in July as he seems determined to do - and this trade makes no logical sense for MU and his management style.

For a speculative 1-season rental that, best case scenario gets you a Finals loss to GSW and an earlier end to the Lowry/Ibaka/DD window. Does nothing for the future whatsoever. Gives an indication that loyalty is not really as valued as MU has been preaching in Toronto. Depletes some of the solid young core that's being developed (Poeltl, Wright, Siakam and esp. OG are all assets that Giannis or another big FA might be hoping are still here when the end of the core window rolls around).

I'm not against it, it would be exciting and we'd hopefully see the best player ever to put on a Raps uniform (again, if he's healthy) at least for one season. It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense given where this franchise is, and how the GM has operated since he's been here...

[DanH]

Man that is sunk cost fallacy right there. The fact that we had no pick in 2018 has no relevance or bearing on whether or not we should use our 2019 1st in a trade. The fact is, unless we're ravaged by injuries, even if Kawhi doesn't play a single game for us that's probably an early 20s pick at the highest. If we're fully healthy it's 25-30th. We're not talking about a lottery selection here.

I suggested this trade a while back but what I'd do is Kawhi for DeRozan, Wright, Poeltl and our 2019 1st. To make the money work I'd take back Danny Green if they're actually willing to include him, if not the most I'd do is agree to bite the bullet on the roughly $34M that Pau's owed over the next 2 years.

You then have a lineup of

Lowry/FVV
Kawhi/Powell
OG/Miles
Ibaka/Siakam
JV/Gasol

That's the dream.

Gasol makes loads of sense as a backup C for the Raps, as if Leonard does bolt after a year, they can waive him and save some money the following off-season, or keep him if they are keeping Leonard.

[gk17]

This guy doesn't want to play for the Raptors and there is a good chance he won't if he gets traded to Toronto. So why even thinking about trading for him? I don't get it.