Everything 2018 Off Season

[DanH]

Is it possible -without paying tax - to sign Fred and wait until the trade deadline 2019 to move Norm, if he shows no sign of improvement?

Sure, but it's so much harder. First, by then, Norm will count as his full extension salary (9.4M) while at the coming draft he will count for $1.5M, a far easier number to salary match or find cap room to trade into.

Second, teams tend to use up their cap space during the off-season, so the number of teams you can dump a salary to shrinks dramatically in-season - and this summer is already looking like an all time worst summer in terms of free cap space.

Third, the closer you are to the deadline to cut salary to dodge the tax, the more teams will look to gouge you. So while I could see a team taking a flyer on Norm this spring, at a low cost (possibly nothing, possibly a 2nd rounder, possibly even sending us a low value pick if Masai is on his game), next spring I'd expect the cost is a 1st rounder plus, like the Carroll dump trade.

[LJ2]

Yeah Serge/JV will be tougher to trade. Not a lot of teams with cap space that would want either guy.

Mav's will after they take their customary swing and miss in free agency. Nowitzki has to retire at some point right? Right?

[magoon]

I think moving JV or Serge will be near impossible in this cap environment.

The one rule of NBA trading is that there's no such thing as an immovable deal, ever.

I don't think we could just trade away Serge for nothing, but I can definitely see a team with some space trading us back $10m of salary for him.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

I don't see JV as untradeable, and LJ2 brought up Dallas which is a great point. JV fits in nicely with DSJ, Barnes, etc from a timeline perspective and they're going to have a fair amount of cap space. They don't have any long-term solution at center whatsoever and assuming they strike out on Cousins (who I think Cuban will go after hard) and DeAndre (idk if they go after him again but they might), he could be a really good option for them.

That would just basically be dumping him though which I don't see much point in doing

[DanH]

The one rule of NBA trading is that there's no such thing as an immovable deal, ever.

I don't think we could just trade away Serge for nothing, but I can definitely see a team with some space trading us back $10m of salary for him.

It's not a question of moveable, it's a question of dumpable for a cost that is acceptable and a salary return low enough.

There are too few teams with cap space. Like, we only look at it from the Raptors' point of view, but the reality is those teams will be looking to sign a big free agent first - and there are more free agents than cap teams this year, so the odds are the cap space gets eaten up fast.

But let's be generous and say that there are still a couple teams with 10+M cap room left after the frenzy, and they look to leverage that space in a trade. The Raptors will not be the only team looking to shed salary. So it becomes a bidding war where the Raptors, due to their high seed, have the lowest value future assets to trade, and none of the salary they want to move is expiring, meaning they are at a disadvantage to start with.

Now, do I believe they could find a taker for Ibaka if they were willing to pay an expectant futures cost? Yes. Do I believe they are willing to do that? Not remotely.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

I'm not really sure why people want to trade JV/Serge into cap space? We still aren't going to have flexibility to sign anyone except for our own guys (who we can sign anyway by going into the tax).

I'd understand if someone had some ideas on players we could trade them for that might make us better, but it seems like people want to just do pure salary dumps. That depletes our asset stockpile and makes us worse.

Y'all have to remember also that Ibaka's trade value will actually increase in the 2019-20 season because he'll only have 1 year left on his deal. That 23M expiring contract could be very useful potentially as a salary ballast in a trade.

[DanH]

I don't see JV as untradeable, and LJ2 brought up Dallas which is a great point. JV fits in nicely with DSJ, Barnes, etc from a timeline perspective and they're going to have a fair amount of cap space. They don't have any long-term solution at center whatsoever and assuming they strike out on Cousins (who I think Cuban will go after hard) and DeAndre (idk if they go after him again but they might), he could be a really good option for them.

That would just basically be dumping him though which I don't see much point in doing

Yeah, except Dallas is in the rare position of being able to offer a max deal when few other teams are able to, and they are going to get a star with that space if it kills them. Maybe that's a C, but if they strike out on the centres you think they'd hesitate at signing a top wing or guard to go get JV instead? They did it with Barnes and they'll do it again.

It's a delightful fever dream but it's not realistic. There's always some chance, obviously, but to plan for that to be the case would be incredibly foolhardy for the Raptors' front office. And if they are going to chase a Norm deal instead, they have to do that before they see how free agency goes for it to have a good shot of happening.

Obviously Masai is magic and is quite capable of making me eat my words. But it cost multiple picks to shed Carroll (a deal that saved about 12M) in a far friendlier cap summer and a far stronger negotiating position for the Raptors.

[golden]

Yeah, except Dallas is in the rare position of being able to offer a max deal when few other teams are able to, and they are going to get a star with that space if it kills them. Maybe that's a C, but if they strike out on the centres you think they'd hesitate at signing a top wing or guard to go get JV instead? They did it with Barnes and they'll do it again.

It's a delightful fever dream but it's not realistic. There's always some chance, obviously, but to plan for that to be the case would be incredibly foolhardy for the Raptors' front office. And if they are going to chase a Norm deal instead, they have to do that before they see how free agency goes for it to have a good shot of happening.

Obviously Masai is magic and is quite capable of making me eat my words. But it cost multiple picks to shed Carroll (a deal that saved about 12M) in a far friendlier cap summer and a far stronger negotiating position for the Raptors.

Are you calling Harrison Barnes a star? Dallas is always overpaying for non all-star talent and they don’t have a legit all-star to entice another top FA to sign there.

[DanH]

Are you calling Harrison Barnes a star? Dallas is always overpaying for non all-star talent and they don’t have a legit all-star to entice another top FA to sign there.

I'm saying Barnes was a guy they were willing (eager) to chase like a star in free agency rather than use their cap space in trades. If the true big names say no to them again, they'll chase the next biggest potential stars on the market before turning to salary dumps.

[TheWaterboy]

I'm not really sure why people want to trade JV/Serge into cap space? ...

I'm not sure why anyone wants to proactively trade JV period. He's really taken the next step this year and is out-producing his contract on a value basis, in my opinion. That's pretty important for a team that's up against the luxury tax threshhold this year and is expected to be a tax-paying team next year.

[planetmars]

I'm not sure why anyone wants to proactively trade JV period. He's really taken the next step this year and is out-producing his contract on a value basis, in my opinion. That's pretty important for a team that's up against the luxury tax threshhold this year and is expected to be a tax-paying team next year.

It's trying to think about what Masai is going to do. I'm a big JV fan and want him to stay. But I also have a feeling that Norm is going to be a hard asset to trade. Some don't feel that way, but I don't think many teams would be willing to spend $10M+ on him for the next 4 years. Especially since it's the dreaded mid-level type of contracts that kill a team's budget/payroll... and he's been awful this year.

If we want to bring back Fred, and not have a tax bill that essentially sets the overall budget to $170M Masai will want to make a deal somewhere. If Norm is a tough sell that leaves Ibaka and JV frankly. And JV might be the easiest to trade (Poeltl will be in his 3rd year, and might be able to take the reigns as our starting center). If we don't bring Fred back.. then that might hurt our bench. Fred this year has arguably been our 4th most important player.

I hope Norm has some type of market. If not, then I hope MLSE/Masai is willing to spend $170M on this group. But if they aren't something needs to happen. And the only potential moves out there would be to not bring Fred back.. or to trade one of CJ, JV, and Serge assuming Lowry/DD are untouchable for the next 2-3 years.

[Maury]

It's trying to think about what Masai is going to do. I'm a big JV fan and want him to stay. But I also have a feeling that Norm is going to be a hard asset to trade. Some don't feel that way, but I don't think many teams would be willing to spend $10M+ on him for the next 4 years. Especially since it's the dreaded mid-level type of contracts that kill a team's budget/payroll... and he's been awful this year.

If we want to bring back Fred, and not have a tax bill that essentially sets the overall budget to $170M Masai will want to make a deal somewhere. If Norm is a tough sell that leaves Ibaka and JV frankly. And JV might be the easiest to trade (Poeltl will be in his 3rd year, and might be able to take the reigns as our starting center). If we don't bring Fred back.. then that might hurt our bench. Fred this year has arguably been our 4th most important player.

I hope Norm has some type of market. If not, then I hope MLSE/Masai is willing to spend $170M on this group. But if they aren't something needs to happen. And the only potential moves out there would be to not bring Fred back.. or to trade one of CJ, JV, and Serge assuming Lowry/DD are untouchable for the next 2-3 years.

Get rid of our 3rd best player to keep our 4th best player? Who probably isn’t even our 4th best player? I don’t see it.

[Superjudge]

A lot of Teams seeing "injured" players who will be out just long enough to be fully rested for the Playoffs right now.

NBA is hilarious.

[rocwell]

A lot of Teams seeing "injured" players who will be out just long enough to be fully rested for the Playoffs right now.

NBA is hilarious.

don't worry, karma is a bitch. It strikes when you least expect it

[wayner]

Get rid of our 3rd best player to keep our 4th best player? Who probably isn’t even our 4th best player? I don’t see it.

That's why I say that you try to move Ibaka as he is not our 3rd best player. Right now I would argue he is about 8th, 9th or 10th best on the team. (My ranking would be: DD, KL, JV, FVV, PS, JP, DW, SI, OGA, CJM)