Everything 2018 Off Season

[DanH]

If, if, if.

Convince me this team has what it takes to reach the finals without the ifs. We've been here far too long for ifs.

Have we?

The Bulls, built around Michael Jordan, did this their first 6 years in the playoffs:

Lost in 1st round.
Swept in 1st round.
Swept in 1st round.
Lost in 2nd round 4-1.
Lost in ECF.
Lost in ECF.

Those last three were all against the Pistons.

Imagine we are Bulls fans at the time. I say the team is good, that MJ is a star, and that to give up on the team now would be foolish.

You tell me to convince you that this team has what it takes to reach the Finals without the "if"s. We've been here far too long for "if"s.

What could I even say? Sure, I make the superstar argument, but that's a different logic than what you are asking here. Even if I made the argument, would that convince you they had what it took?

If, if, if, is what it is, until they break through. That's sports, man.

I don't disagree that when a team has no chance to really compete (see the 2012-13 Raptors, with Gay and Bargnani as the big stars), that tanking is the way to go. Chasing a tweak (which the Raptors stumbled into) in that scenario is far less likely to yield a successful team that has a chance to go deep in the playoffs than grabbing top talent in the draft and building up from there. The Raptors lucked into their success. But you don't bail on success to go fishing for talent.

The Raptors have three years here to make their run. They are falling short in year one, but have already shown they are markedly better than previous iterations of the team by going toe to toe with LBJ, even if they are still falling a bit short. That doesn't mean they are doomed for the full window. It just means they won't do it this one year.

Never mind that even if they dumped Lowry and DD and Ibaka right now, the team's depth is too good for them to tank. The bench alone would propel us to 8th-11th sort of range, where you don't want to be (the actual treadmill team location).

[Nilanka]

That's whats sad about the whole thing. It absolutely DOES feel different from other years, like we COULD beat the Cavs. And yet still, here we are. I still look back on game 1. We absolutely 100% were supposed to win that ball game. That's the one that still burns. We could be down 2-1 on the back of an incredible Lebron buzzer beater Saturday, and trying to tie the series in a massive game 4 tonight. That's literally how a bounce here or a bounce there can alter a franchise for a long time. Sucks how we usually get the bad bounce rather than the good bounce

It's crazy to think that the final 6 minutes of game 1 was what decided the series. But when you're deathly afraid of your opponent, all it takes is a little "bad luck" to completely break you.

[KeonClark]

It's crazy to think that the final 6 minutes of game 1 was what decided the series. But when you're deathly afraid of your opponent, all it takes is a little "bad luck" to completely break you.

Agreed, very disappointing. Losing game 1 in heartbreaking fashion had the Raptors wobbly, and then the run by Love and James in a quiet and pussycat atmosphere at the ACC early 3rd quarter of game 2 was the knockout punch.

But this is the fucking playoffs. Adversity is the name of the game. If one tough loss and a 10-0 run (in a game you were winning) in the first 7 quarters of the series is enough to break you, then your core and leadership at the top is simply not built for this.

[Nilanka]

Have we?

The Bulls, built around Michael Jordan, did this their first 6 years in the playoffs:

Lost in 1st round.
Swept in 1st round.
Swept in 1st round.
Lost in 2nd round 4-1.
Lost in ECF.
Lost in ECF.

Those last three were all against the Pistons.

Imagine we are Bulls fans at the time. I say the team is good, that MJ is a star, and that to give up on the team now would be foolish.

You tell me to convince you that this team has what it takes to reach the Finals without the "if"s. We've been here far too long for "if"s.

What could I even say? Sure, I make the superstar argument, but that's a different logic than what you are asking here. Even if I made the argument, would that convince you they had what it took?

If, if, if, is what it is, until they break through. That's sports, man.

I don't disagree that when a team has no chance to really compete (see the 2012-13 Raptors, with Gay and Bargnani as the big stars), that tanking is the way to go. Chasing a tweak (which the Raptors stumbled into) in that scenario is far less likely to yield a successful team that has a chance to go deep in the playoffs than grabbing top talent in the draft and building up from there. The Raptors lucked into their success. But you don't bail on success to go fishing for talent.

The Raptors have three years here to make their run. They are falling short in year one, but have already shown they are markedly better than previous iterations of the team by going toe to toe with LBJ, even if they are still falling a bit short. That doesn't mean they are doomed for the full window. It just means they won't do it this one year.

Never mind that even if they dumped Lowry and DD and Ibaka right now, the team's depth is too good for them to tank. The bench alone would propel us to 8th-11th sort of range, where you don't want to be (the actual treadmill team location).

I agree it's rational to stick with the plan. It's the least disruptive option. But I won't be expecting different results.

The last thing I want is for us to be here in 2020 wishing we started the rebuild earlier, when the writing was on the wall.

[slaw]

LOL, guys, Masai is not blowing this team up. I doubt he's even firing Casey (though if he did I'm like 100% certain it would be to promote Stack or Nurse).

Casey is going to be an interesting question mark. I thought he was done after the WSH series years ago and I was pretty certain he was going to be gone after last season as well, so, I am not a good prognosticator when it comes to Ujiri and Casey.

I'm of two minds. I generally don't mind Casey and think he's basically done a terrific job in Toronto. Having said that, I really didn't like they way they gave up last year in Cleveland and how they came out in game 2 this year. I'm a firm believer that this team doesn't play hard enough in the playoffs. If they could go get a head coach with a championship pedigree (and I have no idea who that is) I'd be on-board for a change but there are big risks there, including losing a lot of what has made this team so good.

I'd lean toward Ujir keeping Casey but, if so, Ujiri needs to add someone to upset the locker room - make guys a little uncomfortable.

[DanH]

I agree it's rational to stick with the plan. It's the least disruptive option. But I won't be expecting different results.

The last thing I want is for us to be here in 2020 wishing we started the rebuild earlier, when the writing was on the wall.

The last thing I want is for us to be here in 2020, wishing we'd taken those two extra cracks with the best team we ever had.

[Nilanka]

Agreed, very disappointing. Losing game 1 in heartbreaking fashion had the Raptors wobbly, and then the run by Love and James in a quiet and pussycat atmosphere at the ACC early 3rd quarter of game 2 was the knockout punch.

But this is the fucking playoffs. Adversity is the name of the game. If one tough loss and a 10-0 run (in a game you were winning) in the first 7 quarters of the series is enough to break you, then your core and leadership at the top is simply not built for this.

Exactly.

I don't need any more evidence from the Lowry/DeRozan/Casey trio. They're a good team, but not great.

[DanH]

Casey is going to be an interesting question mark. I thought he was done after the WSH series years ago and I was pretty certain he was going to be gone after last season as well, so, I am not a good prognosticator when it comes to Ujiri and Casey.

I'm of two minds. I generally don't mind Casey and think he's basically done a terrific job in Toronto. Having said that, I really didn't like they way they gave up last year in Cleveland and how they came out in game 2 this year. I'm a firm believer that this team doesn't play hard enough in the playoffs. If they could go get a head coach with a championship pedigree (and I have no idea who that is) I'd be on-board for a change but there are big risks there, including losing a lot of what has made this team so good.

I'd lean toward Ujir keeping Casey but, if so, Ujiri needs to add someone to upset the locker room - make guys a little uncomfortable.

My reasoning for removing Casey would be him tactically undermining the Raptors every series, rather than any "guys not playing hard for him" reasoning (though the two could be linked psychologically). But I also doubt Ujiri gets rid of Casey. Can only pray for further improvement from the coach, as he was indeed better this year than prior years, just not good enough still.

[Nilanka]

the last thing i want is for us to be here in 2020, wishing we'd taken those two extra cracks with the best [regular season] team we ever had.

ftfy

[Nilanka]

No team can give you that guarantee.

I'm not asking for a guarantee. I'm asking for a realistic shot at a finals berth. I thought we had this year year, but the true character of this core has been revealed.

23 years into this franchise's existence, and we're still wishing Carter didn't attend a graduation ceremony.

[KeonClark]

The last thing I want is for us to be here in 2020, wishing we'd taken those two extra cracks with the best team we ever had.

The first thing I want is for us to be here in 2020





Anyways, carry on.

[KeonClark]

I'm not asking for a guarantee. I'm asking for a realistic shot at a finals berth. I thought we had this year year, but the true character of this core has been revealed.

23 years into this franchise's existence, and we're still wishing Carter didn't attend a graduation ceremony.

[DanH]

ftfy

Which team have we had that was better in the playoffs, exactly?

[DanH]

I'm not asking for a guarantee. I'm asking for a realistic shot at a finals berth. I thought we had this year year, but the true character of this core has been revealed.

23 years into this franchise's existence, and we're still wishing Carter didn't attend a graduation ceremony.

So if they won games 1 and 3 with a few more shots going in, would the true character of the team be different, or just still hidden?

[Scraptor]

Comparing this team to Jordan's Bulls is peak insanity.

Maybe it's time to examine your cognitive biases, Dan, because this is the craziest example of anchoring I've ever seen.

The Bulls had a player who was already exhibiting evidence that he might be the GOAT after six seasons. Larry Bird called him God disguised as Michael Jordan. He had won an MVP and had one of the most dominant seasons of all time when he won the scoring title AND DPOY in 87-88. He was 27 when he pushed the Pistons to 7 games.

If we had a player like Michael Jordan, no one here would be arguing about this team's ceiling.

One of our stars was benched for the fourth quarter. Our other star turns 33 before the next playoffs. And we still haven't won a game against our chief rival in 2 years.

Close enough only matters in horseshoes and hand grenades. Not being able to win at home against a struggling, tired Cavs team shows that we aren't even close to overcoming this obstacle.

Tanking isn't a one-year solution. It's a multi-year effort. And the longer we wait to rip off the bandaid the longer we are delaying the inevitable. It's also raising the odds that we lose what middling assets we have for nothing.

But again, it doesn't really matter because Masai has put us in a position where we have limited options to tear it down even if we wanted to. And I guess if we are going to maintain the fiction that he has a strategy, we have to rationalize our current situation.