Everything 2018 Off Season

[golden]

I say take the risk and make a bold move to either seriously go for it or bust. This core is anyway going to be finished in 2 years and a mini rebuild will start soon so why not risk it all and hasten the process.

Yep. Casey and DeMar got exposed like they normally do when the playoffs come around. After punting Casey (3 seasons too late), swapping Demar for Kawhi (former playoff MVP) would be the logical next step to take this core as far as it can possibly go.

[DanH]

Now, obviously it's a real long shot that the Raptors put together the best offer for Kawhi. So we shouldn't be holding our breath here. But if he's available for a DD package like that one, I think it's definitely a risk the Raptors should take.

[DanH]

Ha, I knew that Kawhi deal looked familiar!

https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/5/17/...-lowry-derozan

Wrote about trading DeMar for Kawhi in mid-May. Suggested that exact deal:

Trade #2: Superstar Bid
DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl, Delon Wright, 2019 TOR 1st to San Antonio for Kawhi Leonard, Pau Gasol

Looked like a real long shot then. Still a long shot, but a little less so with all these rumours swirling around Kawhi about him having his sights set on LA, and San Antonio not wanting to trade him in the West.

[white men can't jump]

Now, obviously it's a real long shot that the Raptors put together the best offer for Kawhi. So we shouldn't be holding our breath here. But if he's available for a DD package like that one, I think it's definitely a risk the Raptors should take.

Yep...before people be like "lol, Raps fans delusional they think they'll get Kawhi", it's not that we think we will get him, just that this kind of deal is a no-brainer and not that big a risk in the grand scheme of things for this team right now.

[Barolt]

The thing about a trade like that, even if it happens, it'd likely take a while to develop while San Antonio is weighing their options.

Which can look a lot like indecision.

[inthepaint]

Ha, I knew that Kawhi deal looked familiar!

https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/5/17/...-lowry-derozan

Wrote about trading DeMar for Kawhi in mid-May. Suggested that exact deal:



Looked like a real long shot then. Still a long shot, but a little less so with all these rumours swirling around Kawhi about him having his sights set on LA, and San Antonio not wanting to trade him in the West.

wow cool, you got it. I think when there was hope that a team other than LA could get him for more than a year, or that the Spurs could try to retain him, it made sense to include picks in the package to try to pry him out. Now that neither is likely happening, his value has decreased. When you think about it, out of the only teams in the East that could actually benefit from a rental (Raps, Boston and Philly), we're the ones that got the least to lose:

Boston could offer more than us, but are they really gonna give any 2 or 3 of Kyrie, Hayward, Tatum or Brown for a 1-yr of an unmotivated banged-up Kawhi that doesn't wanna be there? These are guys that are either starts at their prime or key pieces on their ECF run with a long bright future ahead of them.

For the same reasons, Philly would be dumb to include Simmons or Embiid on any deal for Kawhi. And any package that didn't have one of these two would be kinda weak imo.

That leaves us. We got a lot less to lose than Bos/Philly, and could be certainly worth it at a last "kick at the can" before we rebuild. Yay for echo chambers!

[Barolt]

wow cool, you got it. I think when there was hope that a team other than LA could get him for more than a year, or that the Spurs could try to retain him, it made sense to include picks in the package to try to pry him out. Now that neither is likely happening, his value has decreased. When you think about it, out of the only teams in the East that could actually benefit from a rental (Raps, Boston and Philly), we're the ones that got the least to lose:

Boston could offer more than us, but are they really gonna give any 2 or 3 of Kyrie, Hayward, Tatum or Brown for a 1-yr of an unmotivated banged-up Kawhi that doesn't wanna be there? These are guys that are either starts at their prime or key pieces on their ECF run with a long bright future ahead of them.

For the same reasons, Philly would be dumb to include Simmons or Embiid on any deal for Kawhi. And any package that didn't have one of these two would be kinda weak imo.

That leaves us. We got a lot less to lose than Bos/Philly, and could be certainly worth it at a last "kick at the can" before we rebuild. Yay for echo chambers!

Playing devil's advocate for a second here:

If I'm Boston, I offer a package built around Kyrie and next year's Sacramento pick.

Give me Tatum/Brown/Hayward/Kawhi/Horford, a lineup that can create offense from every guy, with plenty of shooting to go around, and can switch absolutely everything defensively.

[inthepaint]

Playing devil's advocate for a second here:

If I'm Boston, I offer a package built around Kyrie and next year's Sacramento pick.

Give me Tatum/Brown/Hayward/Kawhi/Horford, a lineup that can create offense from every guy, with plenty of shooting to go around, and can switch absolutely everything defensively.

See, I personally think that's too much for a one-year rental of half-baked recently injured and unmotivated Kawhi. Kyrie is a former NBA champion and #1 pick that when healthy can carry your team in the playoffs, still only 26, and can do so for Boston for years to come. Dude's at his prime. SAC's pick next year will also be high as SAC will continue to be bad, and will be key to solidify their roster over phily's in the long run.

Guess it comes down to who's got the most immediate need with less to lose, and think in the East that's us. Our window is about to close while theirs is longer with Kyrie at the center of it. They have more reason to be zealous about their future.

Just my perception though, anything could happen of course. If Boston wanted to go on a "bidding war" with us, they'd certainly win, I just don't think they'd want to. A flat-out rental like this with zero chance of resigning is the kinda move best suited for teams that are almost there but at the same time will enter rebuild very soon anyway, and right now that's us...

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Lumping DeRozan and Lowry together this postseason is just plain wrong. Lowry was extremely good. DeMar was... not.

I agree Lowry was very good this postseason and DeRozan wasn't.

However if we just take DeRozan off and replace him with a 3+D player like you've proposed, we haven't raised our ceiling at all. Lowry cannot handle the first option role at his age. Maybe when he was 27, 28, 29 he could but it's pretty clear that he needs his volume to be lower than that to be very effective.

That's why I brought up the Kawhi trade. What we need to do is get a better first option than DeRozan otherwise we're just going to lose again. This is a star driven league, so as much as people want to say that our nice bench units and team ball can carry us through, that won't be enough to beat the best teams in the playoffs. We have to at least get to the point where we're like Dallas in 2011 (a team with one superstar and a very well-built and balanced roster around him).

[KeonClark]

I agree Lowry was very good this postseason and DeRozan wasn't.

However if we just take DeRozan off and replace him with a 3+D player like you've proposed, we haven't raised our ceiling at all. Lowry cannot handle the first option role at his age. Maybe when he was 27, 28, 29 he could but it's pretty clear that he needs his volume to be lower than that to be very effective.

That's why I brought up the Kawhi trade. What we need to do is get a better first option than DeRozan otherwise we're just going to lose again. This is a star driven league, so as much as people want to say that our nice bench units and team ball can carry us through, that won't be enough to beat the best teams in the playoffs. We have to at least get to the point where we're like Dallas in 2011 (a team with one superstar and a very well-built and balanced roster around him).

Alright shaolin. I'm willing to admit you're right

[Rudy Bargnani]

Keep in mind, though, any team planning to use cap space and salary matching in trades to add players will do it in that order. Since salary matching allows them to add up to 125% of what they send out, but after the trade the cap space shrinks right away. So any team like Philly that wants to sign a max player and trade for one, will sign the free agent first, then trade for one. Same goes with the Lakers - sign two max free agents, then use trade salary matching to add your third guy.

You are right, it makes loads of sense for LAL to trade for Kawhi - but only once they've locked down other free agents. Meaning this song and dance could go on a while if that is the end game.

Yes I agree with this..I guess my point is that while a Kawhi trade is risky...it may not be possible for him to simply go sign in LA a year from now and leave his team for nothing. Thus reducing the risk in trading for him in July 2018. If Lebron goes to the Lakers he is probably bringing more all stars/friends with him using all the Lakers cap space in the process. IE Kawhi may not have the opportunity Paul George has this summer with his preferred destination sitting on max cap space.

[DanH]

Playing devil's advocate for a second here:

If I'm Boston, I offer a package built around Kyrie and next year's Sacramento pick.

Give me Tatum/Brown/Hayward/Kawhi/Horford, a lineup that can create offense from every guy, with plenty of shooting to go around, and can switch absolutely everything defensively.

That Sacramento pick is pretty high value for what could amount to a rental. If Boston is willing to deal that, the Raps don’t really stand a chance in the bidding. I question whether they are willing to do that, though, given all the uncertainty around Kawhi.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

That Sacramento pick is pretty high value for what could amount to a rental. If Boston is willing to deal that, the Raps don’t really stand a chance in the bidding. I question whether they are willing to do that, though, given all the uncertainty around Kawhi.

Don't think they would be, could possibly end up trading Kyrie and a top 5 pick for nothing basically.

Honestly I think at the end of the day the Spurs will be forced to trade him to the Lakers or Clippers, since they'll be the only teams really willing to give up a lot of value since he'd be willing to re-sign in LA.

You can't just let spite take over and screw yourself long-term by either not trading him or accepting a crappy offer from a team out east.

EDIT: I do think that the Raptors should be (but likely aren't) willing to take a risk on this kind of deal though. Like I said if he bolts, fine, you lost DeRozan and some mediocre prospects. If not then you can build around him, OG, JV, Lowry on a cheaper deal long-term, etc.

There are a very limited number of ways for a team like ours to get our hands on a superstar and this is one of them. Basically it's going to be either trading for a superstar whose value has been depressed or drafting one, and since there seems to be no desire or intent to tank then we have to go for the former if we have any intention of competing for the title.

[DanH]

Don't think they would be, could possibly end up trading Kyrie and a top 5 pick for nothing basically.

Honestly I think at the end of the day the Spurs will be forced to trade him to the Lakers or Clippers, since they'll be the only teams really willing to give up a lot of value since he'd be willing to re-sign in LA.

You can't just let spite take over and screw yourself long-term by either not trading him or accepting a crappy offer from a team out east.

EDIT: I do think that the Raptors should be (but likely aren't) willing to take a risk on this kind of deal though. Like I said if he bolts, fine, you lost DeRozan and some mediocre prospects. If not then you can build around him, OG, JV, Lowry on a cheaper deal long-term, etc.

There are a very limited number of ways for a team like ours to get our hands on a superstar and this is one of them. Basically it's going to be either trading for a superstar whose value has been depressed or drafting one, and since there seems to be no desire or intent to tank then we have to go for the former if we have any intention of competing for the title.

I’m pretty sure if that deal is on the table, Masai takes it without thinking.

The problem is going to be that SA will certainly start by asking for OG and future unprotected 1sts. Masai will smartly say no to that. And then the question will be whether the Raptors’ best offer (which I believe is the one you laid out) is the best one out there.

[DanH]

I wonder in that potential SAS deal, whether the Spurs would still be interested in Norm? Or at least more interested in him than Patty Mills. The Raptors could offer to swap the two. The Spurs would be taking on an extra year in salary, but would be cutting 2-3M per year for the next three seasons. And they were rumoured to like Norm over the past few off-seasons.

The deal would then be:

DeRozan (27.7M), Norm (9.4M), Poeltl (2.9M), Wright (2.5M), 2019 TOR 1st : $42.6M total salary

for

Kawhi (20.1M), Pau (16.8M), Mills (11.6M) : $48.5M total salary

That lets them shed 6M now in the deal. Or if they no longer have interest in Norm, the Raps could also offer Miles as a shorter term salary swap for Mills if they want out from the term of that deal (Miles is 2 years - one a player option, Mills is 3, Norm is 4). Miles in Norm's place would mean even more short term savings (7M instead of 6M) and a year of Mills' salary chopped off instead of added on.

I think that's probably the best offer the Raps can reasonably make for Leonard.