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Game #72: Toronto Raptors 129 - Cleveland Cavaliers 132

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  • #16
    TRex wrote: View Post
    He's been studying the Raptors.

    Quiet..LeBron may be here right now..his vision is based on movement
    9 time first team all-RR, First Ballot Hall of Forum

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    • #17
      So I've been tracking the team's performances all year on a game to game basis as I usually do.

      Game performance is basically in-game net rating, adjusted for strength of opponent, inherent home/away advantage, and any rest advantage either team has.

      So each game is simplified down to a single number, and that number correlates to what "sort" of team they played like that night.

      Game performance values would break down as follows, based on the current net ratings league wide (if you doubled net rating to take into account the extremes of single game outcomes):

      >+15: Elite championship contenders.
      +5 to +15: Solid playoff team, good chance at home court.
      -5 to +5: Borderline playoff team, very average.
      -15 to -5: Lotto chasing team.
      <-15: 1st overall pick.

      Single game results tend to be skewed to extremes (hence the very large buckets above), but still, looking at the season as a whole through this lens is another way to consider how consistently good the team is.

      So, how many of the Raptors' games have fallen into each bucket?

      Elite: 18
      Good: 21
      Average: 24
      Bad: 8
      Terrible: 0

      So, that's good to see. They haven't really laid any eggs all year, and have been really bad in only a handful of games. In about a third of their games, they play poorly and grade out as essentially an average NBA team. In another third, they grade out as a rock solid playoff performer. And in about a quarter of their games they play like a powerhouse.

      Now, I don't have the data for all the other teams (or the time) to do game by game analysis, but looking just at game net ratings, we can get an idea of how other top teams break down, roughly.

      GSW:
      Elite: 22
      Good: 26
      Average: 9
      Bad: 11
      Terrible: 2

      HOU:
      Elite: 25
      Good: 28
      Average: 4
      Bad: 12
      Terrible: 2

      BOS:
      Elite: 7
      Good: 30
      Average: 17
      Bad: 12
      Terrible: 5

      UTA:
      Elite: 17
      Good: 16
      Average: 15
      Bad: 11
      Terrible: 12

      OKC:
      Elite: 14
      Good: 20
      Average: 17
      Bad: 13
      Terrible: 9

      That's the top 6 teams in basketball-reference's SRS. No other team replicates Toronto's lack of bottoming out. When Toronto plays bad, they mostly play like an average team. Other teams put up stinkers far more often than the Raptors. They also post good-great performances at a slightly greater rate than teams like BOS and OKC, a little ways back of the West powerhouses.

      The strength of this team appears to be it's floor. They have a very solid ceiling too, better by this measure than anyone else in the East, don't get me wrong, but the team posting around an NBA-average performance or better in close to 90% of its games is the key to their winning so many games. It's also a great sign for the early rounds of the playoffs - on good nights, this team can beat any team in the East. And on bad nights, well, they'll still have a shot, because they don't really have many bad nights, just average ones.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • #18
        Added fuel for tonight's game.

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        • #19
          Either we beat Cleveland today and that's awesome, or we help them with regards to keeping the 3rd seed. It's a win-win
          The name's Bond, James Bond.

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          • #20
            TRex wrote: View Post
            He's been studying the Raptors.

            He's the best player for a reason. If anyone doesn't know the names of all the guys on their opposing team, they're not prepared and I wouldn't want them on my team.

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            • #21
              This game is all about the Raps sending a message to the Cavs ....... not this year, chumps.

              In big games, the first 5-10 minutes usually tells the story for the Lowry/Derozan led Raps: are they still afraid of Lebron and playing uptight, or are they relaxed and just playing within the flow? I haven't seen that nervousness in this team since the Golden State game, when they blew us out in the first half.

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              • #22
                Mack North wrote: View Post
                He's the best player for a reason. If anyone doesn't know the names of all the guys on their opposing team, they're not prepared and I wouldn't want them on my team.
                I wonder if JR Smith could name all the players on his own team....
                And with the 4th overall pick the Toronto Raptors select..... Scottie Barnes.

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                • #23
                  Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
                  I wonder if JR Smith could name all the players on his own team....
                  "JR
                  JR
                  JR
                  JR SWISH
                  LEBRON
                  WHITE BOY"

                  He's not very good at maths either.

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                  • #24
                    Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
                    I wonder if JR Smith could name all the players on his own team....
                    I wonder if JR smith can spell 'JR'
                    9 time first team all-RR, First Ballot Hall of Forum

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                    • #25
                      golden wrote: View Post
                      This game is all about the Raps sending a message to the Cavs ....... not this year, chumps.

                      In big games, the first 5-10 minutes usually tells the story for the Lowry/Derozan led Raps: are they still afraid of Lebron and playing uptight, or are they relaxed and just playing within the flow? I haven't seen that nervousness in this team since the Golden State game, when they blew us out in the first half.
                      I'm reminded of a game late last year where the Celtics hosted Cleveland and the storyline going in was that Celts were going to send a message to Lebron. And then the Cavs ran them out of the building before halftime. OTOH, this Cleveland squad doesn't beat good teams.

                      What is curious to me is how little interest this game, a likely ECF preview, seems to be generating in Raptorland. Maybe I'm misreading the mood....

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                      • #26
                        slaw wrote: View Post
                        What is curious to me is how little interest this game, a likely ECF preview, seems to be generating in Raptorland. Maybe I'm misreading the mood....
                        You're misreading the mood.

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                        • #27
                          slaw wrote: View Post
                          I'm reminded of a game late last year where the Celtics hosted Cleveland and the storyline going in was that Celts were going to send a message to Lebron. And then the Cavs ran them out of the building before halftime. OTOH, this Cleveland squad doesn't beat good teams.

                          What is curious to me is how little interest this game, a likely ECF preview, seems to be generating in Raptorland. Maybe I'm misreading the mood....
                          I agree. I'm little dismayed by the lack of raptor hype up north altogether. Forget ESPN, I don't feel like WE are behind this team (and no I'm not talking about the couple hundred die hards on raptors republic)

                          Fuck Austin matthews. Let's talk about demar derozan at the water cooler.
                          9 time first team all-RR, First Ballot Hall of Forum

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                          • #28
                            KeonClark wrote: View Post

                            Fuck Austin matthews. Let's talk about demar derozan at the water cooler.
                            ^ This!!!
                            Mamba Mentality

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                            • #29
                              i think its nuts that even with all the DNP and injuries on cavs side, they're technically supposed to win according to vegas.

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                              • #30
                                iblastoff wrote: View Post
                                i think its nuts that even with all the DNP and injuries on cavs side, they're technically supposed to win according to vegas.
                                Don't forget that DeRozan and FVV are listed on official injury report.

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