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Dread it. Run from it. A rebuild still arrives.

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  • Dread it. Run from it. A rebuild still arrives.

    This team as currently constructed with this core, regardless of any interchanging you want to do with Kyle, DeMar, Ibaka, will never win an NBA championship. We lack the requisite superstar talent to reach that goal. To get that talent, due to our status as a non-destination city in the NBA, we must go through the draft (or trade, but atm we lack the assets necessary to pull that off). Even if we run it back we're not going to get anywhere (and the challenge will be even stiffer with BOS and PHI on the come-up) and we'll just be delaying the inevitable. We should get started now on the process.

    We need a tear-down and at least get started on shipping the guys who will add unnecessary wins to this team next year who have little to no upside (Lowry, DD, Ibaka and probably JV as well) out of here. They all need to go. DeMar can net a good return, Ibaka and Lowry will probably require us to take back bad salary along with a pick or prospect (which is fine because we're not FA players anyway), JV I'm not sure exactly.

    If we want to win championships we need to get young potential superstars. This won't be like the late 90s though. If we get a Vince or T-Mac, we have the infrastructure now with Masai, Raptors 905, smart overall management to build around them and build a powerhouse in the NBA. It has to be done. I know we've enjoyed this run of no longer being the worst team in the NBA, watching the likes of Bargnani lead us to 20 win seasons, but it's time to scrap it and move forwards with some of our young guys and our eyes on the NBA draft.

    In time, we must learn what it is like to lose. That time is now.

  • #2
    Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
    In time, we must learn what it is like to lose. That time is now.
    I love this line. We have one of the worst franchise win percentages in the NBA.
    "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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    • #3
      S.R. wrote: View Post
      I love this line. We have one of the worst franchise win percentages in the NBA.
      Yeah I wanted to squeeze that in, I realize it makes no sense because we basically have doctorates in losing, particularly in the mid-late 90s and from about 2004-2013.

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      • #4
        Wins next year will be largely irrelevant, in terms of a rebuild. They won't be getting into the lottery, and even in the extreme won't be getting far into the lottery.

        If they want to rebuild, the target time for that would be next summer or the summer after, as that's when they'd be most likely to move pending RFA's from their youth to avoid having that quality of player on the team for the bad years.

        The key this year is selling assets that are currently maximized (such as DeMar, IMO), competing enough to make a tax bill feasible (so as not to have to shed assets to cut costs), and holding onto contracts that could be greater assets next summer (Lowry, Ibaka, JV as expirings).

        I don't think an immediate rebuild is the path they will or should take - they have too many quality players and are in no danger of slipping to the dreaded middle ground of borderline playoff team. I'd like to see them shake up what they have, see if they can push the ceiling up with a different coach and out from under the effect of a flawed high volume scorer (who contributed a lot to their unfortunately hard capped success), and decide from there whether they can be successful building from that starting point or whether they need to take a dive down the standings (which would still be tough then, but far easier than now).
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • #5
          Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
          Yeah I wanted to squeeze that in, I realize it makes no sense because we basically have doctorates in losing, particularly in the mid-late 90s and from about 2004-2013.
          We never lost intensely enough for it to matter. Sadly, with this team, I doubt we'll be able to lose intensely enough this time either.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • #6
            Hmm I actually kinda see your point DanH.

            If we try to tank next year we might not be able to offload enough guys and end up with like the 10th pick.

            If we trade DeMar for assets and run it back with a new coach, we probably win worst case high 40s, lose in the playoffs again but the following summer Lowry/Ibaka/JV's value is higher so we can get more picks back for them than we would now. Then we can go for a last place finish in 2019-20.

            I get it, you've convinced me. Trade DD, new coach, keep Lowry/Ibaka. Rev up the tank in 2019-20.

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            • #7
              Do you subscribe to the theory it will take a year to test it down?
              That we get more for these contracts a year from now as expiring?

              Edit typed this before seeing your more recent posts
              Last edited by Rudy Bargnani; Wed May 9th, 2018, 12:44 PM.

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              • #8
                If the tank starts they need to be patient with it. Raptors have never been patient. If we draft a guy with All-Star potential don't rush to build around him and try to win with him. Tank until you get someone really special
                Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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                • #9
                  Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
                  Hmm I actually kinda see your point DanH.

                  If we try to tank next year we might not be able to offload enough guys and end up with like the 10th pick.

                  If we trade DeMar for assets and run it back with a new coach, we probably win worst case high 40s, lose in the playoffs again but the following summer Lowry/Ibaka/JV's value is higher so we can get more picks back for them than we would now. Then we can go for a last place finish in 2019-20.

                  I get it, you've convinced me. Trade DD, new coach, keep Lowry/Ibaka. Rev up the tank in 2019-20.
                  This is why the three year window (minimum two) was a thing as soon as they signed those deals. Kind of locked into at least a majority of the team at this point if we care about asset return (which, as we saw with JV not getting dealt, meant something to Ujiri at least).

                  The two possible inflection points for retool vs rebuild are next summer, and the summer after. This year we can try swapping out DeMar because his value is high. But the real potential tear down points are a) next summer, with expirings being dealt for garbage deals/picks, and b) the following summer, with all that cap space opening up and being able to absorb bad deals directly, and being able to pivot the young pieces on the team elsewhere if need be to get bad enough.

                  I do think the team will still need to make a judgment call on whether to tank at that point, but I do think that if they go that way (and frankly they probably should, even if only for a couple seasons), that's the correct timing for it, and falls right in line with the plan as laid out last July.
                  twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                  • #10
                    DanH wrote: View Post
                    This is why the three year window (minimum two) was a thing as soon as they signed those deals. Kind of locked into at least a majority of the team at this point if we care about asset return (which, as we saw with JV not getting dealt, meant something to Ujiri at least).

                    The two possible inflection points for retool vs rebuild are next summer, and the summer after. This year we can try swapping out DeMar because his value is high. But the real potential tear down points are a) next summer, with expirings being dealt for garbage deals/picks, and b) the following summer, with all that cap space opening up and being able to absorb bad deals directly, and being able to pivot the young pieces on the team elsewhere if need be to get bad enough.

                    I do think the team will still need to make a judgment call on whether to tank at that point, but I do think that if they go that way (and frankly they probably should, even if only for a couple seasons), that's the correct timing for it, and falls right in line with the plan as laid out last July.
                    All I'm gonna say is I will lose it if DeMar and Casey are both here next year. Not changing something with those 2 is going to really piss me off.

                    I actually kind of want to see what happens if Lowry is forced to be more assertive with DeMar gone.

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                    • #11
                      Haha.. awesome. This thread will continue -- but I love that it's already been solved to satisfaction by it's creator Shao and DanH.

                      I've felt the same from the moment game 4 ended. Gotta part ways with Casey.
                      And if you can find a good deal for Demar, who still has value, you take it. ... I'd really like it to be for Kawhi.

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                      • #12
                        GOLDBLUM wrote: View Post
                        Haha.. awesome. This thread will continue -- but I love that it's already been solved to satisfaction by it's creator Shao and DanH.

                        I've felt the same from the moment game 4 ended. Gotta part ways with Casey.
                        And if you can find a good deal for Demar, who still has value, you take it. ... I'd really like it to be for Kawhi.
                        some would say that wanting something to change after losing 10 straight playoff games to Cavs is knee jerk reaction lol
                        Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          MixxAOR wrote: View Post
                          If the tank starts they need to be patient with it. Raptors have never been patient. If we draft a guy with All-Star potential don't rush to build around him and try to win with him. Tank until you get someone really special
                          Not that I'm advocating for it, but do you guys think basketball in Toronto/Canada has come far enough where this franchise can live through a patient tank? Grizz perhaps never had the best fan base to sustain being bad for long, but does Toronto?

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                          • #14
                            MixxAOR wrote: View Post
                            some would say that wanting something to change after losing 10 straight playoff games to Cavs is knee jerk reaction lol
                            More like wanting something to change after 5 straight playoff failures, which is about as polar opposite from knee-jerk as you can get.

                            I think that bringing in a new coach and cashing-in DeRozan could make a significant difference, especially if similarly good deals can be found for Lowry and/or Ibaka.

                            I see no reason why a Raptors team without DeRozan can't be a solid playoff team, since he was invisible for most of the playoffs offensively, while being a negative on the defensive end. Couple that with a fresh perspective behind the bench, ideally from a coach who is superior tactically and can get more out of the young/role players... who knows, maybe that retooled team is even better than it was this year.

                            There are a number of good young pieces already on this team that can be maintained throughout a rebuilding/retooling process, since they have already proven to be 2-way, team-first guys with potential - Anunoby, JV, Wright, Van Vleet, Powell, Siakam, Poeltl.
                            Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Wed May 9th, 2018, 01:17 PM.

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                            • #15
                              LJ2 wrote: View Post
                              Not that I'm advocating for it, but do you guys think basketball in Toronto/Canada has come far enough where this franchise can live through a patient tank? Grizz perhaps never had the best fan base to sustain being bad for long, but does Toronto?
                              I honestly don't know. Raps are not Lakers and Knicks. Raps don't get amazing viewership when they are good. Jerseys don't really sell. It'll be tough so MLSE could tap out too early.
                              Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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