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  • DanH wrote: View Post
    This is just another case of misattribution of impact stats.

    Impact stats measure how effective a player is, in the role he is in, with the teammates he had. It adjusts for how successful those teammates typically are, but doesn't pretend to adjust for fit.

    Freddy was incredibly effective in the specific roles and lineups the team asked him to play. That's what the impact stats said. It's why context still matters when looking at impact stats - ranking players by impact and assigning value based on that is foolhardy unless you are careful to look at the very least at role, nevermind lineup fit.

    That all to say, the impact measure wasn't misleading - it just told us exactly what it told us: that Fred was great in those circumstances. We've removed him from those circumstances, mostly for no reason and seemingly intentionally, so it's no surprise he might struggle.
    Are you sure that's the right interpretation of impact stats (like PIPM, for example)? It could be as simple as "Fred is physically limited, teams are scouting him this year and when his 3-pt shot isn't falling, his value diminishes considerably", i.e., he's being exposed this year as a replacement-level backup PG.

    Jakob is gone and Miles has lost his 3-pt shot, so there was no replicating that bench mob anyway. If Nurse's lineup juggling is doing anything, it's exposing who has talent and how much. If we're admitting that we need to jig an entire rotation just to get some value out of FVV, then we should probably be looking to trade him when his value does increase.

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    • golden wrote: View Post
      Are you sure that's the right interpretation of impact stats (like PIPM, for example)? It could be as simple as "Fred is physically limited, teams are scouting him this year and when his 3-pt shot isn't falling, his value diminishes considerably", i.e., he's being exposed this year as a replacement-level backup PG.

      Jakob is gone and Miles has lost his 3-pt shot, so there was no replicating that bench mob anyway. If Nurse's lineup juggling is doing anything, it's exposing who has talent and how much. If we're admitting that we need to jig an entire rotation just to get some value out of FVV, then we should probably be looking to trade him when his value does increase.
      It could indeed be as simple as that. It's not what I've observed at all, personally.

      Yes, that is indeed what those stats measure. Whether that's what their creators' intent was, is not something I know, but it is what the method does.

      Poeltl is gone, but replacing him with Serge versus with JV are two wildly different amounts of change stylistically (on the defensive end especially). Miles' three point shot will come back, especially if he gets more of the shots he was getting last year (which a more similar bench unit would help achieve).

      Playing players in roles and looks that get the best out of them isn't some negative thing, it's called coaching. The only thing that's been "exposed" about Fred is stuff we already knew about him - he is an off-ball floor spacer who can do secondary ball creation but should not be a primary offence initiator. We knew that last year. Difference this year is the team is asking him to do primary offence creation stuff way more than they did last year, at least partly because of the different lineups he is in (also partly not because of that for reasons I don't understand).
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • DanH wrote: View Post
        It could indeed be as simple as that. It's not what I've observed at all, personally.

        Yes, that is indeed what those stats measure. Whether that's what their creators' intent was, is not something I know, but it is what the method does.

        Poeltl is gone, but replacing him with Serge versus with JV are two wildly different amounts of change stylistically (on the defensive end especially). Miles' three point shot will come back, especially if he gets more of the shots he was getting last year (which a more similar bench unit would help achieve).

        Playing players in roles and looks that get the best out of them isn't some negative thing, it's called coaching. The only thing that's been "exposed" about Fred is stuff we already knew about him - he is an off-ball floor spacer who can do secondary ball creation but should not be a primary offence initiator. We knew that last year. Difference this year is the team is asking him to do primary offence creation stuff way more than they did last year, at least partly because of the different lineups he is in (also partly not because of that for reasons I don't understand).
        Casey was using FVV as the primary offence initiator in crunch time last year. And he was succeeding in that role and with the bench mob. He was being lauded for that, even by Lowry & DeMar. You're suggesting now that FVV can't run an offense beyond handing the ball off and then waiting on the perimeter for a open shot .... when that's supposed to be his best skill? And we all knew that? This is new information.

        The other problem with Fred is that his defense has slipped, for some reason. His offense affecting his defense, or just a lack of hunger this year. Seems like a replay of what happened to Powell after he got paid.

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        • golden wrote: View Post
          Are you sure that's the right interpretation of impact stats (like PIPM, for example)? It could be as simple as "Fred is physically limited, teams are scouting him this year and when his 3-pt shot isn't falling, his value diminishes considerably", i.e., he's being exposed this year as a replacement-level backup PG.

          Jakob is gone and Miles has lost his 3-pt shot, so there was no replicating that bench mob anyway. If Nurse's lineup juggling is doing anything, it's exposing who has talent and how much. If we're admitting that we need to jig an entire rotation just to get some value out of FVV, then we should probably be looking to trade him when his value does increase.
          I agree with this. Not necessarily with the trading part, but with the premise that we shouldn't be jigging the rotation to fit FVV. Siakam fits well with FVV, but we shouldn't deprive the starting unit of a player like Siakam (who's having a breakout season and might by averaging close to 20 by April), just so that FVV can play with him on the "second unit".

          What I hope for FVV is that he's able to be a Lowry-lite this year and fit in his role/position whenever Lowry needs a breather. Have him be at ease with the first unit. Have him become comfortable with Green, Kawhi, and Serge (or JV) together, just like Lowry. Maintain the flow of play for the starters when Lowry has to sit. Be the classic backup PG.

          It's enough that we have to build chemistry around Kawhi and Green, we shouldn't tinker with the starters too much just so "the bench" is more functional. Enough with the all-bench, hockey unit changes, that was last year. I would have:

          FVV for Lowry
          Wright for Green
          OG for Kawhi or Siakam
          JV for Serge (or vice-versa).

          But not at the same time.. That's it. 9-man tight. Stagger these guys in as necessary, but always have 3 of Lowry/Green/Kawhi/Siakam on the court at all times. If you want a 2 PG look, always have Lowry be one of them. Soon everyone would be humming and playing well with each other, because you'd always have a core of starters on the floor, rather then trying to juggle two full teams out there (It's hard to build chemistry like that).
          Last edited by inthepaint; Fri Nov 23, 2018, 11:28 AM.
          2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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          • golden wrote: View Post
            Casey was using FVV as the primary offence initiator in crunch time last year. And he was succeeding in that role and with the bench mob. He was being lauded for that, even by Lowry & DeMar. You're suggesting now that FVV can't run an offense beyond handing the ball off and then waiting on the perimeter for a open shot .... when that's supposed to be his best skill? And we all knew that? This is new information.

            The other problem with Fred is that his defense has slipped, for some reason. His offense affecting his defense, or just a lack of hunger this year. Seems like a replay of what happened to Powell after he got paid.
            Fred dribbling the ball while DeMar or Miles comes off screens to initiate the actual offence doesn't count. Running the actual threat action was never FVV's role. Now he runs the primary pick and roll every play, and he's as incapable of it as ever. Throw in a little scouting on his drives (which was already happening the back half of last season) and tada. Fred's best skill last year was his shooting. Once his stroke returns this year, it will still be his best skill. I mean, offensively. Defensively it was probably his IQ knowing when to dig in on post/lane help - the team is just full of guys who do that now so it doesn't stand out as much.

            I haven't been too concerned with FVV's defence. The bench defence has been very, very good, even with JV in there, and I imagine would be even better if Serge got more time there. They just can't score.
            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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            • Also the team's ORTG dropped from 113 overall to 104 in the clutch, so I wouldn't use FVV's clutch dribbling as support for "he should be doing this."
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • Regardless of what the solution is, it should not be playing Siakam less minutes. If you want to stagger him with the bench, that's fine. I think there's zero reason you can't have one of Lowry, Siakam or Leonard with the bench at all times to help prop them up.

                But I think unless you are playing the Pelicans, you should start and finish with KL^2, DG, PS, and one of JV or Ibaka depending on who the other team has at center.
                That is a normal collar. Move on, find a new slant.

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                • Other Scott wrote: View Post
                  Regardless of what the solution is, it should not be playing Siakam less minutes. If you want to stagger him with the bench, that's fine. I think there's zero reason you can't have one of Lowry, Siakam or Leonard with the bench at all times to help prop them up.

                  But I think unless you are playing the Pelicans, you should start and finish with KL^2, DG, PS, and one of JV or Ibaka depending on who the other team has at center.
                  I don't think anyone has advocated for playing Siakam fewer minutes.
                  twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                  • Rudy Bargnani wrote: View Post
                    Kyle Lowry is like cheese whizz, he makes everything better.
                    He makes JV better when he’s on the floor with JV.
                    He makes FVV better when he’s on the floor with him.

                    If Lowry plays less minutes with certain players than he did in the past it will probably impact their impact stats.
                    Lowry is that good.
                    Haha, Cheeze Whiz is gross tho
                    "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                    • S.R. wrote: View Post
                      Haha, Cheeze Whiz is gross tho
                      not Cheese Wihiz - cheese whizz, the spread with added urine.
                      If we knew half as much about coaching an NBA team as we think, we"d know twice as much as we do.

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                      • My thing is why do our coaches have such a hard time figuring out how to stagger minutes so they bench would have either Pascal, Kyle, or Kawhi on the floor at all times. Dan H has been saying this for a while now and first Casey couldn't do it and now Nurse doesn't seem to be able to do it. Take some of the starters out of the first quarter earlier to they can come in with the bench. It's as simple as that. It would also help JV get some minutes with starters like Kyle and Kawhi who run the pick and roll soooooooooo much better than Fred.
                        I relish negativity and disappointment. It is not healthy. Somebody buy me a pony.

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                        • I thought Nurse was a little slow in calling tome outs when Washington started their runs. He seems to wait until they score 6 points or more before he considers it. I wonder if this is done on purpose? On the other hand, Raptors eventually took charge and won comfortably. Maybe he knows what he is doing.

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                          • Puffer wrote: View Post
                            I thought Nurse was a little slow in calling tome outs when Washington started their runs. He seems to wait until they score 6 points or more before he considers it. I wonder if this is done on purpose? On the other hand, Raptors eventually took charge and won comfortably. Maybe he knows what he is doing.
                            He was really quick with timeouts early in the year, so maybe he's making a value judgment based on what he deems the source of the run. Or he's just trying different things out.
                            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                            • Puffer wrote: View Post
                              I thought Nurse was a little slow in calling tome outs when Washington started their runs. He seems to wait until they score 6 points or more before he considers it. I wonder if this is done on purpose? On the other hand, Raptors eventually took charge and won comfortably. Maybe he knows what he is doing.
                              It's possible, but in fairness to him anything less than 6 points is typically just two possessions. If he had to stop every time the other team scored twice in a row I think he'd run out of timeouts really quickly. I like the way our team comes out of timeouts though, from the eye test anyway (compared to last season).

                              A time that I'm always bracing myself though is right after the half (beginning of 3Q), especially at home. The building is empty, 80% of the the lower bowl fans are not on their seats, things sound really quiet, and the team half the time looks flat lol. I think we've seen this year, but I wish they'd come out gunning right after the half, just like they do it on most first quarters.
                              2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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                              • Other Scott wrote: View Post
                                Regardless of what the solution is, it should not be playing Siakam less minutes. If you want to stagger him with the bench, that's fine. I think there's zero reason you can't have one of Lowry, Siakam or Leonard with the bench at all times to help prop them up.

                                But I think unless you are playing the Pelicans, you should start and finish with KL^2, DG, PS, and one of JV or Ibaka depending on who the other team has at center.
                                I agree. But also against the pelicans we should start with the top 5.

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