Everything Nick Nurse

[DanH]

I'm going to be going deep on a potential rotation soon, just want to wait a few more games for a bigger sample with these lineups from the full rotation.

[slaw]

Yeah, it's just a baseline substitution pattern, but sh*t will happen and Nurse is gonna Nurse. The goal was to eliminate the need for Lin/Powell/McCaw, except for: foul trouble, specific matchups, injury or if Lowry/Kawhi/Green need a rest. The main idea is to play our highest positive impact players (and OG, out of necessity) the most minutes. Weird concept, I know.

To me OG is the biggest question mark rotation-wise. He absolutely fits, no question. I just wonder how much the team trusts him to play half the game. I'm skeptical both that they do and that he can. I still think Lin gets in that rotation somehow.

[planetmars]

By the way how often have Marc and Serge played together? I don't see any 2-man line ups with those 2 together though (unless I created my filter incorrectly). If the answer is 0 minutes.. than I'm surprised our mad scientist coach wouldn't want to try them together for at least one or two shifts.

Could use some size against Detroit if we have to play them in the first round. Better to experiment now than later (like Casey did last year).

[golden]

To me OG is the biggest question mark rotation-wise. He absolutely fits, no question. I just wonder how much the team trusts him to play half the game. I'm skeptical both that they do and that he can. I still think Lin gets in that rotation somehow.

Bingo. OG is indeed the weakest link.... by far. I chose the top 8 using PIPM and was clenching my butt-cheeks as I pencilled OG into the lineup. He's in there because of his versatility to spell both Pascal and Kawhi. But tbh, if I was Nurse, I'd be thinking out of the box and getting a better look at Malcolm Miller in non-garbage time.

Below is the Raptors PIPM since the Gasol trade (games 57-74). Pascal has been far and away our best player. Gasol has been as advertised on defense, with the caveat being that we have been facing bad teams. We've mostly cratered against top 10 offenses since, but not necessarily because of Gasol. Very small sample sizes, though.

[slaw]

It's funny, cause I generally trust Lin way more than OG or Powell but he's been shooting it so bad since he's been here that it's hard to rely on him. One thing that would be nice is if the team plays well in the first round and allow themselves to throw each of those guys out there a bit and see what happens. I just have a feeling Lin will be solid in the playoffs. Nothing to justify it. Just my feeling. I hope he gets a chance to prove me right.

[KeonClark]

I'm going to be going deep on a potential rotation soon, just want to wait a few more games for a bigger sample with these lineups from the full rotation.

DanH be like

[golden]

DanH be like

Do we need to go any deeper than:

"Play Lowry, Green, Kawhi and Siakam a lot", and "Don't play Lin, McCaw and Powell at all" ?

[KeonClark]

Do we need to go any deeper than:

"Play Lowry, Green, Kawhi and Siakam a lot", and "Don't play Lin, McCaw and Powell at all" ?

Most teams average about 9 guys. Some go 10, and Nurse will definitely go more than 8 early on. The 9th and 10th guy are always under 20 usually well under 15 minutes. So, like I said, probably 15 minutes shared between those 3, depending on the game and situation. Jodie Meeks might sneak in the competition too who knows, he's the best shooter of the 4

Edit: especially because we'll be playing some sad sack team in the first round, I would suggest staying with 10 early.

[golden]

Most teams average about 9 guys. Some go 10, and Nurse will definitely go more than 8 early on. The 9th and 10th guy are always under 20 usually well under 15 minutes. So, like I said, probably 15 minutes shared between those 3, depending on the game and situation. Jodie Meeks might sneak in the competition too who knows, he's the best shooter of the 4

Edit: especially because we'll be playing some sad sack team in the first round, I would suggest staying with 10 early.

What Nurse will do and what Nurse should do are 2 different things. Keeping guys happy should matter a lot less in the playoffs. Of course, if you can get more bench guys some minutes without putting the W in jeopardy, then that keeps them happy and also keeps your best players fresh. That hasn't been happening in the regular season, so I wouldn't expect that to improve against better competition with more at stake.

[Rudy Bargnani]

OG is fine when he plays with the starters. It’s when he’s with Lin, Powell and McCaw and has to create that he runs into problems.

if you plug him in for kawhi in the playoffs for 10 minutes a game and Lowry or gasol kicks it out to him he will be just fine in my view.

[Zak24gege]

Should have warned me I was giving Doug Smith clicks

He's gone from "Casey's 'no adjustments' are fine, clamouring fans are idiots who don't know anything about NBA basketball" to "Nurse's secret tricks are awesome, not that dumb dumb fans would notice these subtleties that geniuses like Nick Nurse and me, the estimable Douglas Smith, definitely notice and appreciate."

He's such a shill. Literally defends almost anything that is happening organizationally as just fine the way it is. Instead of attempting actual basketball articles he may as well just write: "Raptors update: everything is just fine. Now, about my freshly stained deck and the best pubs in every NBA city..."

Now that's funny... I can hear Doug's voice as I read the 'quotes'.

[golden]

OG is fine when he plays with the starters. It’s when he’s with Lin, Powell and McCaw and has to create that he runs into problems.

if you plug him in for kawhi in the playoffs for 10 minutes a game and Lowry or gasol kicks it out to him he will be just fine in my view.

That's why Lin, Powell and McCaw aren't even in my basic rotation. For exactly what you said, I have OG always playing with a minimum of: FVV/Lowry/Siakam or FVV/Green/Kawhi/Gasol. That's enough playmaking and shotmaking on the floor to keep OG from having to do too much.

OG+Ibaka is kind of a weak combination, so you could have Gasol come back for the end of the 1st quarter (9-12min) and have Ibaka take Gasol's (6-9min) stint in the second quarter, like this.



Of course, you can also have Pascal & Kawhi playing 40+ minutes a game as an even better way to cut down OG's minutes.

[Zak24gege]

lol. That's the basic sub pattern... of course you leave bench guys in if they're rolling and try different guys (like McCaw & Norm) if there are some matchup/foul problems. I mean, you can't actually stop the clock at the 6:00:00 min mark and take your guys out, if you were taking this that literally. lol.

Understood and it makes sense given teams line-up. IMO the wild cards at this point in time are OG and Meeks. Give size and athleticism, OG may see more minutes at 4 if Nurse goes to our version of the Death line-up with Siakam at 5, and Meeks may spell DG at the SG position. As you point out, real life is never nice and orderly and would expect variations due to fouls, match-ups, injuries (no thank-you please) and performance etc. Good baseline / framework to aid the opinions.

[golden]

Understood and it makes sense given teams line-up. IMO the wild cards at this point in time are OG and Meeks. Give size and athleticism, OG may see more minutes at 4 if Nurse goes to our version of the Death line-up with Siakam at 5, and Meeks may spell DG at the SG position. As you point out, real life is never nice and orderly and would expect variations due to fouls, match-ups, injuries (no thank-you please) and performance etc. Good baseline / framework to aid the opinions.

Going through the lineup exercise makes it apparent that a reliable backup 4 is one of the key holes in this roster. OG is really just there by default. A ready for primetime Bruno would be the perfect modern 3&D PF. lol.

[inthepaint]

That's why Lin, Powell and McCaw aren't even in my basic rotation. For exactly what you said, I have OG always playing with a minimum of: FVV/Lowry/Siakam or FVV/Green/Kawhi/Gasol. That's enough playmaking and shotmaking on the floor to keep OG from having to do too much.

OG+Ibaka is kind of a weak combination, so you could have Gasol come back for the end of the 1st quarter (9-12min) and have Ibaka take Gasol's (6-9min) stint in the second quarter, like this.



Of course, you can also have Pascal & Kawhi playing 40+ minutes a game as an even better way to cut down OG's minutes.

Good work on the table, I feel it's not too far from what may actually look like, with the exception of maybe a different distribution on the Ibaka/Gasol minutes, and a 9th man in to account for Siakam at the 5 (trickle down effect Keon mentioned) and for foul trouble etc... My personal choice for the 9th man would be Miller or Norm, as I think they have the best 2-way potential out of the players fighting for that spot, though realistically it won't be Miller, and will probably end up being Lin, Norm or McCaw