Raptors starting line up

[golden]

Thought I'd throw this one out here. Below is a list of Raptor players who can guard each position, in order of size of the opponent. The combinations are staggering, as most of our roster can legitimately guard multiple positions, except for FVV, JV, Monroe & Miles. We can basically matchup with ANY lineup in the NBA: big, small and everything in between.

Center: JV, Monroe, Ibaka, Siakam
PF: Ibaka, Siakam, OG, Kawhi
SF: Siakam, OG, Kawhi, Miles, Powell, Wright, Green
SG: OG, Kawhi, Green, Powell, Wright, Lowry,
PG: OG, Kawhi, Green, Powell, Wright, Lowry, FVV

[Puffer]

https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/8/10/...-kawhi-leonard

Wrote a whole pile of words on potential rotations.

Outstanding work Dan. This tool and your organized mind and thought processes have created what seems to be a very rational examination of the options. And are cause for some confidence in the season's outcome. In particular your comment that Nurse is going to have a lot of freedom to experiment, because the pieces are all so go is a slant I haven't seen anyone else come up with.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Except Casey actually has a mainly positive effect in the regular season.

His whole problem is not making good adjustments in the playoffs. As a regular season coach he's very good.

[golden]

Need to take Jacob Goldstein's lineup projection tool with a grain of salt.

Last year a lineup of CJ/Poeltl/Norm/Siakam/Fred had a net rating of -20.0 with an ORTG of 88.7

Plugging in the same guys into Goldstein's tool and I get a net rating of +3.6 with an ORTG of 112.5


Maybe the tool is broken today. 112.5 for those 5 guys doesn't seem right at all. Even if we subtract -3 from the total net rating.

Casey effect. :-)

[DanH]

Need to take Jacob Goldstein's lineup projection tool with a grain of salt.

Last year a lineup of CJ/Poeltl/Norm/Siakam/Fred had a net rating of -20.0 with an ORTG of 88.7

Plugging in the same guys into Goldstein's tool and I get a net rating of +3.6 with an ORTG of 112.5


Maybe the tool is broken today. 112.5 for those 5 guys doesn't seem right at all. Even if we subtract -3 from the total.

Make sure you compare apples to apples. First, the ratings Goldstein uses are more in line with basketball reference numbers than NBA.com's, as you note, so 109.5 would be the number.

Second, Goldstein's numbers are luck adjusted and would only even in theory hold up over large samples. That lineup played only 64 minutes. In that amount of time, getting lucky or unlucky on open threes falling or not would cause significant swings in the result. It often holds up anyway, but there will always be extremes for some lineups that might well not hold up in a bigger sample. I don't think there's any reason to think that 89 ORTG is a true measure of that lineup's offensive ability. That's an extreme result that would almost certainly regress towards the average.

Third, though this is less relevant, the tool doesn't take into account competition. So lineups, depending on who they play against, will do better or worse than projected the further their competition is from average.

Finally, yeah, absolutely take it with a grain of salt. Projections like this (and even team level win projections) are definitely very hard to do and will definitely not hold up 100%. The approach seems sound, as far as I can tell, but sometimes lineups just don't work. Sometimes they work way better than expected. That's why we have to try them, and over large samples, to really know. But setting some baseline expectations based purely on player efficiency, shot selection, a defensive impact still seems worthwhile - if those factors are showing one lineup is significantly better than another, might as well try the good one first.

[planetmars]

Need to take Jacob Goldstein's lineup projection tool with a grain of salt.

Last year a lineup of CJ/Poeltl/Norm/Siakam/Fred had a net rating of -20.0 with an ORTG of 88.7

Plugging in the same guys into Goldstein's tool and I get a net rating of +3.6 with an ORTG of 112.5


Maybe the tool is broken today. 112.5 for those 5 guys doesn't seem right at all. Even if we subtract -3 from the total net rating.

[DanH]

https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/8/10/...-kawhi-leonard

Wrote a whole pile of words on potential rotations.

[Hotshot]

It's funny because everyone is worried about Kawhi's health but Danny Green is the one I'm most worried about. In his podcast he talks about still rehabbing and only doing light workouts throughout the summer so far. There is not that much time until training camp. I have a feeling he won't be 100% by then. Or at least really rusty because he didn't get to do his usual summer workouts with him rehabbing. Hopefully I'm wrong because last season was one of his worst seasons in a while and it's probably because he was secretly injured. I'm no doctor so maybe another month or so is enough for him to get back to 100% but I don't think so. We shall see.

Danny Green is our 9th guy. There shouldn't be an issue if he misses some time now which I doubt that he will.

[GLF]

It's funny because everyone is worried about Kawhi's health but Danny Green is the one I'm most worried about. In his podcast he talks about still rehabbing and only doing light workouts throughout the summer so far. There is not that much time until training camp. I have a feeling he won't be 100% by then. Or at least really rusty because he didn't get to do his usual summer workouts with him rehabbing. Hopefully I'm wrong because last season was one of his worst seasons in a while and it's probably because he was secretly injured. I'm no doctor so maybe another month or so is enough for him to get back to 100% but I don't think so. We shall see.

[GLF]

One of the best, if not the best "passing lane" disturber on this team.

What does that mean? Oh sorry I read that totally wrong. Oh yea even the eye test showed that. He was amazing at disrupting passing lanes. Even if he didn't actually steal the ball he was always tipping the ball and messing up the whole flow of the other teams offence. I used to sometimes confuse him for Terrence Ross at first because he was also really good at that and they have the same body type.

[inthepaint]

Delon Wright. +19.9

One of the best, if not the best "passing lane" disturber on this team.

[GLF]

Delon Wright. +19.9

Interesting.

[golden]

Which one is the best?

Delon Wright. +19.9

[GLF]

Interestingly, if you slot in Kyle, Kawhi, OG, and Jonas, and then play around with the 5th slot, inserting Danny Green, Delon Wright, Fred VanVleet, or DeMar DeRozan, the worst of those four lineups is the one with DeMar.

Which one is the best?

[white men can't jump]

Yeah it would help Wright and FVV. But I think the team is best served having as much of JV's time as possible spent making life easy for Lowry and Kawhi on the offensive end.

Sure, but if JV's minutes are going to go up, it should make it easier to have some overlap with different combos.

I mean, we rarely saw him play with the bench guys. The odd time Casey might let him play like 10+ minutes straight. Or sometimes if one or two bench guys got extended minutes in the 4th (and you know, of JV got any minutes in the 4th).

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