Game #28: Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors, December 9 - 6PM EST TSN/590

[DanH]

I don't spend a lot of time in this forum, and I don't try to keep track of you or anybody else. If you have something to say, it's up to you to state it.

I posted to talk about Lowry's points decline, and the consequences. It struck me as unrealistic for anybody to shrug that off.

Also, you'll notice I didn't restrict it to trades. "Something else you've thought of."

Apparently, from what GOLDBLUM posted, you have "coaching" ideas, rather than "front office" ideas. Is that correct?

Yeah.

[TacoBreath]

Uh, have you seen any of my posts for the past... I dunno, 3 months? Where would you get the idea I'm proposing a trade?

I don't spend a lot of time in this forum, and I don't try to keep track of you or anybody else. If you have something to say, it's up to you to state it.

I posted to talk about Lowry's points decline, and the consequences. It struck me as unrealistic for anybody to shrug that off.

Also, you'll notice I didn't restrict it to trades. "Something else you've thought of."

Apparently, from what GOLDBLUM posted, you have "coaching" ideas, rather than "front office" ideas. Is that correct?

[GOLDBLUM]

But you don't have a point. You have a pet peeve about the bench. A complaint isn't the same as a point.

IT DOESN'T MATTER where the scoring comes from as long as you get enough scoring to win. You seem to think the scoring has to come from the bench in particular. That's wrong, it doesn't.



Silly nonsense. Just give up 14 pts from a starter who plays 30 min and you'll fall to where the Knicks are.



All fingers crossed that he's now out of it.

But it already proved something to anybody who was paying attention. It proved the team could go 2 - 3 at the beginning of Dec, including a loss to the Nets, when Lowry's scoring went to heck.

Then, on a sample size of 1, the Raps won comfortably when Lowry's scoring rebounded. As 'twere.

But okay, you want to fuss with the bench. What would you hope to do about it?

1) Trade a Raps unwanted player for some other team's unwanted player? Looks tough to gain much there.

2) Trade a Raps unwanted bench player for another team's starter, and add him to the Raps bench? How?

3) Something else you've thought of?

It does feel like you've been reading a lot of the content here Taco so I understand Dan's confusion about your misunderstanding of his intent. He's been advocating pretty clearly for a while now for a different, more balanced use of the roster, not for any kind of trade.

[KeonClark]

When someone says to DanH "well what have you thought of for solutions? Havent heard any bright ideas"

[DanH]

But you don't have a point. You have a pet peeve about the bench. A complaint isn't the same as a point.

IT DOESN'T MATTER where the scoring comes from as long as you get enough scoring to win. You seem to think the scoring has to come from the bench in particular. That's wrong, it doesn't.



Silly nonsense. Just give up 14 pts from a starter who plays 30 min and you'll fall to where the Knicks are.



All fingers crossed that he's now out of it.

But it already proved something to anybody who was paying attention. It proved the team could go 2 - 3 at the beginning of Dec, including a loss to the Nets, when Lowry's scoring went to heck.

Then, on a sample size of 1, the Raps won comfortably when Lowry's scoring rebounded. As 'twere.

But okay, you want to fuss with the bench. What would you hope to do about it?

1) Trade a Raps unwanted player for some other team's unwanted player? Looks tough to gain much there.

2) Trade a Raps unwanted bench player for another team's starter, and add him to the Raps bench? How?

3) Something else you've thought of?

Uh, have you seen any of my posts for the past... I dunno, 3 months? Where would you get the idea I'm proposing a trade?

[TacoBreath]

Yeah, you're coming around to my point. ...

But you don't have a point. You have a pet peeve about the bench. A complaint isn't the same as a point.

IT DOESN'T MATTER where the scoring comes from as long as you get enough scoring to win. You seem to think the scoring has to come from the bench in particular. That's wrong, it doesn't.

... then it will quickly become obvious that yes, in fact, an NBA team can lose 14 points of production from one player and still win an awful lot of games. ...

Silly nonsense. Just give up 14 pts from a starter who plays 30 min and you'll fall to where the Knicks are.

... Except of course that his slump won't last long enough to really prove anything.

All fingers crossed that he's now out of it.

But it already proved something to anybody who was paying attention. It proved the team could go 2 - 3 at the beginning of Dec, including a loss to the Nets, when Lowry's scoring went to heck.

Then, on a sample size of 1, the Raps won comfortably when Lowry's scoring rebounded. As 'twere.

But okay, you want to fuss with the bench. What would you hope to do about it?

1) Trade a Raps unwanted player for some other team's unwanted player? Looks tough to gain much there.

2) Trade a Raps unwanted bench player for another team's starter, and add him to the Raps bench? How?

3) Something else you've thought of?

[DanH]

A) Well, the basic problem is losing close games, because of not scoring enough. From wherever.

B) Points production is how you get margin. It isn't a defense issue. 107 pts would have changed any of those three loses. In this era that is not bad defense. Only two of the Raps games in Nov had a winner scoring less than 107.

C) The more you score when he plays, the less you need when he sits. Of course you wouldn't rationally expect his backup to suddenly begin scoring 14 pts above avg, in his 18 min.

No NBA team can give up 14 pts per game and still be winners. The Raps need points - enough points - either from Lowry again, or somewhere. The arithmetic problem has to be solved, or the most winning team in the NBA will turn into losers.

Yeah, you're coming around to my point. Yes, the more you win by when he plays, the more you can hide the very real issues with the bench. That's what they've been doing so far. Now he's struggling, so although the starters are still net positives even against top competition, the very real and already existing weakness (the bench) is being exposed. Which, frankly, is a good thing. We need to fix that regardless if we want to be able to scale back minutes for Lowry and Leonard over the course of the season. So we should do so. And then it will quickly become obvious that yes, in fact, an NBA team can lose 14 points of production from one player and still win an awful lot of games. Except of course that his slump won't last long enough to really prove anything.

[Jclaw]

L2M report says Middleton traveled when he was trapped by the Raps on the second last possession. Was going to say that though they didn’t get the call, I was impressed at the d they played at the time and that might help in another game. Would have been a swing if they called that.

[TacoBreath]

Production is not the problem. Margin is. And our margin is problematic when Lowry sits, not when he plays.

A) Well, the basic problem is losing close games, because of not scoring enough. From wherever.

B) Points production is how you get margin. It isn't a defense issue. 107 pts would have changed any of those three loses. In this era that is not bad defense. Only two of the Raps games in Nov had a winner scoring less than 107.

C) The more you score when he plays, the less you need when he sits. Of course you wouldn't rationally expect his backup to suddenly begin scoring 14 pts above avg, in his 18 min.

No NBA team can give up 14 pts per game and still be winners. The Raps need points - enough points - either from Lowry again, or somewhere. The arithmetic problem has to be solved, or the most winning team in the NBA will turn into losers.

[Day One]

There's nothing wrong with him. This happens to him EVERY year.

We just can't continue use "injuries" or "not getting enough rest" as an excuse everytime he plays like shit. He's just not that good of a player.

Wow lol some peoples kids. you're just not that good of a poster.

[DanH]

In a way it is, tho. Now, I need to be clear, I'm not talking about blame, or who's fault it is, or any of that emotional stuff. It's the arithmetic of the situation.

On average, Lowry has produced about 14 points in 30 minutes of play per game. Using round numbers. Then suddenly he's not scoring.

To fully compensate, the other 4 players, whoever they are, who share that 30 minutes with him, will need to score 14 more points. They'll need to increase their scoring by an average of 3.5 pts each, per that 30 min. This is assuming Lowry is still playing those 30 min, as he has been.

Can the other 4 do it, on average? Or as necessary? It's difficult.

You can indeed increase the points production of the others just by having them shoot more (and Lowry less.) Also, you probably don't need the full 14 pts. Whether a game is won by 5 pts, or by 1 pt, it's still a W. There are known ways to try to handle this.

4 more pts would have won the Denver game. 2 more pts, the Nets game. 6 more pts, the Bucks game. But the Raps couldn't get those pts. From anybody.

The above is simplified, sure. Be that as it may, the arithmetic problem, of scoring enough points, without Lowry's scoring, is a serious and difficult problem. That's all I'm trying to emphasize.

I hope Coach Nurse is good at arithmetic. Can he solve this 14 point problem?

Production is not the problem. Margin is. And our margin is problematic when Lowry sits, not when he plays.

[TacoBreath]

I agree the team has not been successful. I disagree that it is Lowry's play alone preventing that success. ...

In a way it is, tho. Now, I need to be clear, I'm not talking about blame, or who's fault it is, or any of that emotional stuff. It's the arithmetic of the situation.

On average, Lowry has produced about 14 points in 30 minutes of play per game. Using round numbers. Then suddenly he's not scoring.

To fully compensate, the other 4 players, whoever they are, who share that 30 minutes with him, will need to score 14 more points. They'll need to increase their scoring by an average of 3.5 pts each, per that 30 min. This is assuming Lowry is still playing those 30 min, as he has been.

Can the other 4 do it, on average? Or as necessary? It's difficult.

You can indeed increase the points production of the others just by having them shoot more (and Lowry less.) Also, you probably don't need the full 14 pts. Whether a game is won by 5 pts, or by 1 pt, it's still a W. There are known ways to try to handle this.

4 more pts would have won the Denver game. 2 more pts, the Nets game. 6 more pts, the Bucks game. But the Raps couldn't get those pts. From anybody.

The above is simplified, sure. Be that as it may, the arithmetic problem, of scoring enough points, without Lowry's scoring, is a serious and difficult problem. That's all I'm trying to emphasize.

I hope Coach Nurse is good at arithmetic. Can he solve this 14 point problem?

[S.R.]

The most dangerous team in the East for the Raptors isn't the Bucks, it's the team nobody is talking about, Boston. It wouldn't hurt the Raptors playoff chances to not be in the spotlight so much, so early. Going the entire season taking everyone's best shot is going to wear on this team. Rap's need to focus on staying healthy and peaking at the right time.

By the end of the year I think there's actually a pretty equitable top tier in the East. Raps, Bucks, Celtics, and Butler + Sixers have a shot at joining them if Embiid doesn't keep crying about his new teammate.

This is going to be the most entertaining EC playoff bracket in a long time.

[LJ2]

The most dangerous team in the East for the Raptors isn't the Bucks, it's the team nobody is talking about, Boston. It wouldn't hurt the Raptors playoff chances to not be in the spotlight so much, so early. Going the entire season taking everyone's best shot is going to wear on this team. Rap's need to focus on staying healthy and peaking at the right time.

[S.R.]

I agree the team has not been successful. I disagree that it is Lowry's play alone preventing that success.

Denver was a loss I predicted. Of the past 9 opponents, Denver is the only one where the opposition outscored the Raptors while Lowry was on the court.

As I was saying, Lowry not scoring well obviously doesn't help the team as much as Lowry shooting the lights out. But Lowry shouldn't need to shoot the lights out to win. Frankly, we've seen that he doesn't need to score at all for the team to win his minutes. The team is losing games in the minutes where Lowry is on the bench. What has changed is that the starters are not as dominant of late, meaning the very real issues with the bench are being papered over less. That's all. When Lowry returns to form (which of course he will), the underlying issue of the bench will still be there unless it gets fixed in the meantime. Lowry doesn't solve that.

Riding Lowry/the starters for wins so hard is also not sustainable given how we know the Raps have to consciously pace Lowry's usage over the courses of the season for health.

They're denying he's injured but I really doubt that. "But he's still passing the ball, hustling hard, and taking charges!" Doug Smith writes. Yeah, that's what Lowry always does on the floor, even when he's banged up. The canary in the coal mine for nagging Lowry injuries is always his shot imho.

The Bench Mob last year did not translate to playoff success but it did mean the Raps had a fully health Lowry for the post season - and Lowry played really well. I almost don't care about the bench except that they accomplish the one thing a bench is really supposed to do - play well enough to let starters get a breather, so you don't have to grind your top 5-6 guys into the ground over an 82 game schedule.

Oh yeah, Lowry also does not need to take multiple charges per game from guys like Joel Embiid in November. I know he never will but seriously - stop it.