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  • Shooting

    There have been a bunch of games lost this year because of poor shooting. The Nurse offence seems primarily designed (when Kawhi isn't on an iso) to generate 3 point looks and it has done that well for the most part. But then we are privileged to watch brick after brick on far too many occasions. It isn't just the 3s either. Every team out there now seems to have a guard who has mastered the floater and we've been burned badly by some of them. Holiday and Harden come to mind. Our players don't seem to have that shot either!

    Danny Green. FVV at times. Serge from the elbow. Kawhi on a good night.....with his incredibly flat shot. Those are our shooters.

    My questions are.....can the players we have improve during a season? How close is everyone now to their lifetime average? Lowry is (in my opinion) in decline but many others are younger and shouldn't be. Are players working with a good shooting coach? Are guys putting up extra shots? I was just at the Houston and Dallas games and got into the building as soon as it opened 90 minutes before game time. The only Raptors that were out shooting were Siakam, Powell, Green, Ibaka and in one game Lowry. Perhaps everyone else shot earlier....don't know.

    I'm sure almost everyone on this site has played a bit. I feel like some players...certainly ones I've played with and coached are "natural" shooters who even with crappy technique just have an eye-hand thing where they can put it in the basket. I have seen some hard workers who can really improve...especially (like Pascal) if they didn't have much experience. I think Pascal and Norm both have potential to become reliable shooters.

    The other issue is the consistency. I know the Raptors are in the bottom half of the league percentage wise on 3s but it might be even worse because we seem to shoot either great or terrible...not often at close to the 35% mark which is about league average. That is worse to me because shooting 20% is an almost guaranteed loss in today's league...or at least with the Nurse offence.

    I'm not sure adding one shooter will help. I wish I understood why the Raptors seem to be such a crappy shooting team in general....or perhaps it is an illusion. One of our resident statistical wizards might prove that.

    So comments about shooting and shooters?

  • #2
    All the guys who were hitting early in the season are still the same guys. Lowry is the only one who might be excused for his slump because of a slow recovery of his back issue. The one thing that is monstrously different is JV being out. We saw Serge vault into the all star conversation when he and JV were splitting time at the 5 spot. It's not just minutes. JV was always on the floor when the other teams biggest guy was playing. And they would switch starting depending on matchup. Serge's play has fallen significantly as JV has bee recuperating.

    While Nurse has tried to play Moose and shifted minutes onto other guys, anyone other than Serge has been mostly ineffective, doesn't demand doubles, isn't nearly as efficient in the post and having no post player, and drawing fewer help defenders means guys aren't getting as open looks I think. Not having someone to clean the glass means fewer second chance points for the Raptors and more second chance points for the other team.

    Not having JV or Siakim has really hurt Fred game and his ability to lead the second unit. Delon seems to have turned into hot trash and never seems to know what to do with the ball.

    Maybe I'm wrong but I expect an uptick in shooting, rebounding, and better protection around the basket when JV starts playing again.

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    • #3
      A lot of the guys have proven to be good shooters at some point in the past. It's nice to see Norm regaining his form. Ibaka's 3 has cratered, and Lowry has been poor since early in the season. That alone accounts for most of the team decline IMO, and especially considering Lowry, it has really affected the flow of the offence. His pull up 3s are less of a threat and defenders are giving him space, making it even more difficult for kyle to get something in the paint. Consequently, the quality of the looks off lowrys attempts to drive might be less than ideal, although i have no evidence to support that. Overall, the team seems to get decent looks from outside, but no body other than Green gets much respect from the D. Its hard to say what the problem is, it does seem more than just a slump, but the overall flow of the offence just isn't what it was early in the season. Has that affected 3pt shooting, or has the poor shooting affected the flow of the offence? Either way, teams are satisfied to let us shoot.

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      • #4
        Right now this team only has 3 shooters that exhibit the type of well-timed, controlled stroke that makes you feel confident it's gonna go in when they launch:

        Green
        FVV
        Powell

        Then there are 4 wild cards with varying degrees of streakiness, for different reasons.

        Lowry - The back is hurting, so the shot is affected. You can see in on the arc of the shot. Recoverable, but slower recovery at 32.

        Kawhi - Good distance shooter, but he often has to harness it off the dribble because he draws so much attention from the defence, and that's difficult. If we had plays for him to catch and shoot, he'd hover around 37-38% I think. But that's not how we've been using him.

        Siakam - Still needs to be wide open (preferably in the corner) because the release is still slow, but the rhythm is good, and t he's making great strides. Delon is kinda like that too

        Miles - He lost the timing of his release and still trying to recover it. He's always had a quick release combined with a steady stroke, (which is kind of rare) and that made him a dangerous shooter, but at some point between Casey & Nurse he tried to speed up that release even further, then completely lost the timing. Now having a tough time getting it back. The only player I've seen trying to release as quickly as Miles and still maintain a stable form is Steph Curry. Miles needs to slow down the release (you see it against lesser defences sometimes) and that works, but the thing is when he slows too much he also screws it up, so it's tough.

        Everyone else feels like they're still learning.
        ==Glad to have doubted the doubters==

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        • #5
          Kawhi would hover around 37-38% if they used him better? He's at 37% right now.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • #6
            DanH wrote: View Post
            Kawhi would hover around 37-38% if they used him better? He's at 37% right now.
            Well there you go. I thought it was a bit lower as 38% was his career number with the Spurs, and it dipped down a bit here, but hardly apparently. The point I was making it is that he is a very good shooter, but a lot of his shots come unassisted and off-dribble (he creates it himself). And that's fine because that can also create opportunities for other players when the defence collapses on him. But in theory if he had the space and someone else to draw more of the defence's attention (eg AD), he would probably shoot even higher on certain catch-and-shoot scenarios, because he's a very capable shooter.
            ==Glad to have doubted the doubters==

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            • #7
              inthepaint wrote: View Post
              Well there you go. I thought it was a bit lower as 38% was his career number with the Spurs, and it dipped down a bit here, but hardly apparently. The point I was making it is that he is a very good shooter, but a lot of his shots come unassisted and off-dribble (he creates it himself). And that's fine because that can also create opportunities for other players when the defence collapses on him. But in theory if he had the space and someone else to draw more of the defence's attention (eg AD), he would probably shoot even higher on certain catch-and-shoot scenarios, because he's a very capable shooter.
              Yep, he shoots 41% on catch and shoot threes and 34% off the dribble. Which is actually a better pull up number than most, but obviously the catch and shoot is the better shot. Still, at 1 PPP that pull up can keep defences honest.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • #8
                Part of the problem is that they are ALL shooting, nobody seems to talk about this.

                Nobody has been grooving, you can't when shots aren't coming at a regular time and place.

                I think it's a weak part of all this positionless ball.... too many Chefs in the Kitchen.

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                • #9
                  Superjudge wrote: View Post
                  Part of the problem is that they are ALL shooting, nobody seems to talk about this.

                  Nobody has been grooving, you can't when shots aren't coming at a regular time and place.

                  I think it's a weak part of all this positionless ball.... too many Chefs in the Kitchen.
                  Yup. Rhythm. Unless you're Steph Curry or Luka Doncic, most shooters need some consistency to get into a rhythm. Nurse's offense is all drive, create and kick as the bailout option. Everybody's being allowed to drive it and freelance until the get stuck. Makes it tough for shooters read the action and position themselves in an open passing lane, but also be shot-ready with their feet set for the catch & shoot. Up here in the cheap seats, it might look like an open shot, but if you're not shot ready, that split second makes a huge difference when NBA athletes with huge wingspans are closing out fast.

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                  • #10
                    golden wrote: View Post
                    Yup. Rhythm. Unless you're Steph Curry or Luka Doncic, most shooters need some consistency to get into a rhythm. Nurse's offense is all drive, create and kick as the bailout option. Everybody's being allowed to drive it and freelance until the get stuck. Makes it tough for shooters read the action and position themselves in an open passing lane, but also be shot-ready with their feet set for the catch & shoot. Up here in the cheap seats, it might look like an open shot, but if you're not shot ready, that split second makes a huge difference when NBA athletes with huge wingspans are closing out fast.
                    Agree 100%, but I wonder if this might payoff down the road as they become more accustomed to a regular rotation. Barring another injury, by the end of next week, everyone is back. Having to make decisions now, in this geeky jerky appearing style might make them better. They weren't having trouble earlier in the year until they had to start changing the starting five every second game. At least that's how it seems.

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