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  • DanH wrote: View Post

    For reference:

    With JV (30 GP): 23-7 (63 W pace), 113.2 ORTG (2nd), 105.3 DRTG (7th), +7.9 RTG (2nd)
    JV hurt (26 GP): 17-9 (54 W pace), 111.5 ORTG (11th), 109.5 DRTG (13th), +1.9 RTG (12th)
    JV traded (19 GP): 12-7 (52 W pace), 111.4 ORTG (11th), 106.9 DRTG (5th), +4.5 RTG (7th)

    Keep in mind Lowry was hurt for about a third of the JV hurt sample. When Lowry was playing (ie excluding the 10 games he missed and the 1 Philly game in the middle he forced his way back to), the JV hurt sample is 11-4 (60 W pace), 113.6 ORTG (9th), 107 DRTG (4th), +6.6 RTG (5th) - more in line with the JV traded sample except for winning more than the point differential would imply.
    Thanks mate, was hoping you'll help me out with the stats. Really puts things into an actual perspective...
    Official Pope of the Raptors sponsored by MLSE.

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    • planetmars wrote: View Post

      You don't build around JV. He's a role player.. but a good one. Just like Gasol is a role player now (another good one, but different). The goal of an NBA team is to create a winner and in order to do that you need guys that are good at different things. If everyone was the same you probably wouldn't do so well.

      The biggest issue JV always had was defense.. yet I think that gets overblown. He's not a good PnR defender but you can scheme around his flaws. We had a top 5 defense last year where JV started every game (when healthy). A team that also had DeMar out on the wing.

      What I do know is that this team early in the year was so damn good.. putting up better numbers than the Bucks. While still trying to integrate Kawhi and Danny. JV got hurt and we scuffled a bit.

      Marc brings us IQ, passing and vet leadership. Maybe those are more important for us in the playoffs.. maybe not. But the trade was not a home run for us either way. It almost wasn't needed. What we lost was a character guy that was okay to play 20mpg.. rebound like a boss, and give us efficient scoring in the paint.

      Gasol and Memphis played the Warriors twice this year.. he was a -16 in the first game and a -10 in the second. Memphis lost both games. The first by 16 points, the second by 5.

      This doesn't even bring up the fact that Delon is 10x the player Lin is. And for those saying we didn't have the money for Delon.. we could have just pulled his QO and let him become a UFA. We basically had a "team" option on his contract. Lin isn't back next year either most likely.
      Sort of agree with what you're saying. JV can put up great numbers if he is the focal point on offense, but we know this style doesn't work against those really good small ball teams. So the best option is to try and make him a role player. Raptors didn't find a way to make him a role player and fit in seamlessly...in fact our biggest success in the playoffs was when JV was the focal point.

      They are definitely banking on Gasol's intangibles being the big difference maker and I'm fine if that is all the trade was about. If he is the diff maker then success if he isn't then what did we lose by giving up on JV and Delon? Weren't going to rebuild around those two any way.

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      • DanH wrote: View Post

        For reference:

        With JV (30 GP): 23-7 (63 W pace), 113.2 ORTG (2nd), 105.3 DRTG (7th), +7.9 RTG (2nd)
        JV hurt (26 GP): 17-9 (54 W pace), 111.5 ORTG (11th), 109.5 DRTG (13th), +1.9 RTG (12th)
        JV traded (19 GP): 12-7 (52 W pace), 111.4 ORTG (11th), 106.9 DRTG (5th), +4.5 RTG (7th)

        Keep in mind Lowry was hurt for about a third of the JV hurt sample. When Lowry was playing (ie excluding the 10 games he missed and the 1 Philly game in the middle he forced his way back to), the JV hurt sample is 11-4 (60 W pace), 113.6 ORTG (9th), 107 DRTG (4th), +6.6 RTG (5th) - more in line with the JV traded sample except for winning more than the point differential would imply.
        Need to adjust for competition, though. Feels like we've been playing easier teams since JV was traded and that the middle stretch (JV hurt) was the toughest one.

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        • LJ2 wrote: View Post

          Sort of agree with what you're saying. JV can put up great numbers if he is the focal point on offense, but we know this style doesn't work against those really good small ball teams. So the best option is to try and make him a role player. Raptors didn't find a way to make him a role player and fit in seamlessly...in fact our biggest success in the playoffs was when JV was the focal point.

          They are definitely banking on Gasol's intangibles being the big difference maker and I'm fine if that is all the trade was about. If he is the diff maker then success if he isn't then what did we lose by giving up on JV and Delon? Weren't going to rebuild around those two any way.
          We lost great players? Or you think it is normal for organizations just to give away their best assets these days with not much in return?
          Official Pope of the Raptors sponsored by MLSE.

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          • JV is killing it in Memphis at nearly the same rate as he was killing it in Toronto, as has been noted. His usage is way up because Memphis is a thin team and JV's probably the second best guy on the roster. In Toronto most would rank him 4th-6th most important, depending on your preferences.

            For the same reason, Gasol's production has taken a hit in Toronto. He's not nearly as important here as he was in Memphis, where he was definitely the 1B to Mike Conley. Here he's got Kawhi, Lowry, and Siakam ahead of him and is about as important a role player as Danny Green and arguably Ibaka and FVV. I mean hopefully Gasol performs at a level where he's the 4th most important guy here, but the drop from 1B to 4th is significant.

            Two key differences are still that Gasol is the vet and after playoff crash and burns Masai's made an intentional pivot to a more experienced team that hopefully has a playoff gear and an ability to perform under pressure without getting rattled (virtually a trademark of the Casey era) and in Gasol picked up a big that should be able to finish games on the floor vs any opponent, where as they were using JV situationally against favourable match ups only and Ibaka the rest of the time (rightly or wrongly).

            Gasol hopefully proves to be the second most important guy next to Lowry in terms of being able to make the other 4 guys on the floor with him better. That doesn't all show up in your personal box score line.
            "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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            • LJ2 wrote: View Post

              Sort of agree with what you're saying. JV can put up great numbers if he is the focal point on offense, but we know this style doesn't work against those really good small ball teams. So the best option is to try and make him a role player. Raptors didn't find a way to make him a role player and fit in seamlessly...in fact our biggest success in the playoffs was when JV was the focal point.

              They are definitely banking on Gasol's intangibles being the big difference maker and I'm fine if that is all the trade was about. If he is the diff maker then success if he isn't then what did we lose by giving up on JV and Delon? Weren't going to rebuild around those two any way.
              I really never saw what you are describing here. JV's ability to play as a role player was when we had the most success. Yes, he could be used as a primary scorer, and they used him that way with the bench this year, and he managed to float the bench to roughly break even because of that scoring (and his rim protection/rebounding). But he was at his very best setting screens to free up primary scorers, cleaning up the glass and protecting the rim with our best perimeter defenders in front of him. It's why the Raptors have consistently been at their very best when playing their starting and crunch time groups around JV, for years.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • DanH wrote: View Post

                I really never saw what you are describing here. JV's ability to play as a role player was when we had the most success. Yes, he could be used as a primary scorer, and they used him that way with the bench this year, and he managed to float the bench to roughly break even because of that scoring (and his rim protection/rebounding). But he was at his very best setting screens to free up primary scorers, cleaning up the glass and protecting the rim with our best perimeter defenders in front of him. It's why the Raptors have consistently been at their very best when playing their starting and crunch time groups around JV, for years.
                You're still thinking back to the Lowry/Derozan days. The thing is that Lowry isn't a primary scorer anymore, so the role of secondary scorer (after Kawhi) was wide open this year - between Ibaka, JV and Siakam. Nurse could have just as easily elevated JV to the secondary scorer role that he gave Siakam the opportunity to win.

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                • S.R. wrote: View Post
                  JV is killing it in Memphis at nearly the same rate as he was killing it in Toronto, as has been noted. His usage is way up because Memphis is a thin team and JV's probably the second best guy on the roster. In Toronto most would rank him 4th-6th most important, depending on your preferences.

                  For the same reason, Gasol's production has taken a hit in Toronto. He's not nearly as important here as he was in Memphis, where he was definitely the 1B to Mike Conley. Here he's got Kawhi, Lowry, and Siakam ahead of him and is about as important a role player as Danny Green and arguably Ibaka and FVV. I mean hopefully Gasol performs at a level where he's the 4th most important guy here, but the drop from 1B to 4th is significant.

                  Two key differences are still that Gasol is the vet and after playoff crash and burns Masai's made an intentional pivot to a more experienced team that hopefully has a playoff gear and an ability to perform under pressure without getting rattled (virtually a trademark of the Casey era) and in Gasol picked up a big that should be able to finish games on the floor vs any opponent, where as they were using JV situationally against favourable match ups only and Ibaka the rest of the time (rightly or wrongly).

                  Gasol hopefully proves to be the second most important guy next to Lowry in terms of being able to make the other 4 guys on the floor with him better. That doesn't all show up in your personal box score line.
                  I would understand the argument of JV being a good player on a crap team if his effectiveness would have dropped. Sure, that proves that he's not as good (to be let's say 2nd option on a very good team) but to be as effective (with increased usage and more ISO opportunities, being double teamed etc) on a bad team doesn't that say that you're actually good? I don't see the intangibles Marc is supposed to bring, yes he has flashy passing ability and is a high IQ player, but this doesn't convert to better team performance so far. Everyone's just blindly hoping that he's going to flip the switch in the playoffs, when I believe that he's trying his best right now, to showcase what he has to offer. Happy to eat crow if I'm wrong.
                  Official Pope of the Raptors sponsored by MLSE.

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                  • golden wrote: View Post

                    Need to adjust for competition, though. Feels like we've been playing easier teams since JV was traded and that the middle stretch (JV hurt) was the toughest one.
                    As requested, strength of schedule (my own calculation adjusting for opponent net rating, back to backs, home vs road games) - negative numbers mean easier than average schedule - so add these numbers to the net ratings above to get a schedule adjusted net rating:

                    With JV: -0.3
                    JV hurt: +0.7
                    JV hurt (Lowry healthy): -0.1
                    JV traded: -2.2

                    So, yes, the schedule has been incredibly soft since the trade deadline. Was about average for the other regions, with the toughest stretch coming while both JV and Lowry were hurt (+1.7 for those 11 games where Lowry only played once).
                    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                    • DanH wrote: View Post

                      Nothing JV is doing in Memphis is a surprise. We knew Delon was good, the concern was paying him this summer. CJ is CJ, we don't really miss him in any tangible fashion.

                      There's every chance the trade blows up and has made the team worse. But anyone expecting Gasol to score consistently for this team was not paying attention. Sadly, seems to apply to the coaching staff, who took a few weeks to figure out not to use Gasol like JV.
                      I don't really understand people's issue with the trade. Delon Wright might be "good" - every third night and once in a while - but he's always been way too inconsistent to be reliable, which is critical when you are trying to get to the Finals. As for Miles, I would say not only was he a non-factor for the Raps but a negative this year.

                      As for Gasol, he's always going to have some "JV usage" because that's what the team did for months until he got here and they won't abandon all of it for one guy - it's not logistically possible. Over the last few weeks they've changed things incrementally to utilize him better with the guys that are there now. As for his scoring, my humble guess is that it will change in the playoffs. Teams are going to clamp down on Leonard and Lowry, Siakam will get lots of attention and Gasol is going to get good looks.

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                      • DanH wrote: View Post

                        As requested, strength of schedule (my own calculation adjusting for opponent net rating, back to backs, home vs road games) - negative numbers mean easier than average schedule - so add these numbers to the net ratings above to get a schedule adjusted net rating:

                        With JV: -0.3
                        JV hurt: +0.7
                        JV hurt (Lowry healthy): -0.1
                        JV traded: -2.2

                        So, yes, the schedule has been incredibly soft since the trade deadline. Was about average for the other regions, with the toughest stretch coming while both JV and Lowry were hurt (+1.7 for those 11 games where Lowry only played once).
                        Ibaka really held it down during that tough stretch.

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                        • golden wrote: View Post

                          You're still thinking back to the Lowry/Derozan days. The thing is that Lowry isn't a primary scorer anymore, so the role of secondary scorer (after Kawhi) was wide open this year - between Ibaka, JV and Siakam. Nurse could have just as easily elevated JV to the secondary scorer role that he gave Siakam the opportunity to win.
                          I'm really, really not. JV was still incredibly effective this year playing with the starters (I despair we may never see the peak that the starting unit showed early in the season again) and helping unlock that unit's potential. Even Lowry is still a primary play driver (and his scoring was way more effective with JV than Serge...) who needs screens to be effective. But that aside, the Leonard JV PnR was basically unstoppable when used, and if JV had stayed healthy later in the year as Siakam developed his attacking game, we could have seen them combine for some interesting two-big screen plays.

                          He could have elevated JV to secondary scorer, but there was no need to. JV's ability to fill that role when defences force it on him is a fantastic bailout to have, and his ability to make defences prefer that by being lethal as a role player is extremely valuable. Sadly, we'll never know for sure now.
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                          • slaw wrote: View Post

                            I don't really understand people's issue with the trade. Delon Wright might be "good" - every third night and once in a while - but he's always been way too inconsistent to be reliable, which is critical when you are trying to get to the Finals. As for Miles, I would say not only was he a non-factor for the Raps but a negative this year.

                            As for Gasol, he's always going to have some "JV usage" because that's what the team did for months until he got here and they won't abandon all of it for one guy - it's not logistically possible. Over the last few weeks they've changed things incrementally to utilize him better with the guys that are there now. As for his scoring, my humble guess is that it will change in the playoffs. Teams are going to clamp down on Leonard and Lowry, Siakam will get lots of attention and Gasol is going to get good looks.
                            The question is not whether Gasol will get good looks. It is whether he will convert on them. And if your gameplan in the playoffs is to have Gasol take on a scoring role when teams clamp down on the other guys, we were definitely better off with JV. I sure hope that's not the plan - the whole idea of a playmaking C should be to prevent teams from being able to clamp down on the scorers with too many options initiating too many different types of attack.
                            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                            • slaw wrote: View Post

                              I don't really understand people's issue with the trade. Delon Wright might be "good" - every third night and once in a while - but he's always been way too inconsistent to be reliable, which is critical when you are trying to get to the Finals. As for Miles, I would say not only was he a non-factor for the Raps but a negative this year.

                              As for Gasol, he's always going to have some "JV usage" because that's what the team did for months until he got here and they won't abandon all of it for one guy - it's not logistically possible. Over the last few weeks they've changed things incrementally to utilize him better with the guys that are there now. As for his scoring, my humble guess is that it will change in the playoffs. Teams are going to clamp down on Leonard and Lowry, Siakam will get lots of attention and Gasol is going to get good looks.
                              You kind of answered your own question. Gasol is getting lots of good looks right now (bunnies & open 3's) and he's missing them or turning them down. Just like you, everybody is "hoping" that changes in the playoffs against better competition. However, as Dan pointed out, Gasol's TS% is basically what he always shoots (i.e. league average, which is below average for a center), and that almost invariably goes down with higher usage.

                              Hence the angst: is Gasol really going to make us better, or is he going to give back (in lack of efficiency and rebounding) as much as he brings. There doesn't seem to be a clear indication that it should be a win or upgrade, even if Gasol performs as advertised.

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                              • I wrote "bad team" and realized that Memphis isn't even a bad team anymore, they're actually an 8th/7th seed playoff team (in the West) if everyone gets healthy (they get rid of CJ's, Parsons and other leftovers) and JJJ continues to improve. They've been playing shorthanded for the last three weeks and still pulling away with wins against teams like OKC and HOU, losing close games due to a depleted roster. So the argument that he's a 1st/2nd option on a bad team isn't that valid, because next season if they'll stick with this unit they will be a good team (not great, but not bad either).
                                Official Pope of the Raptors sponsored by MLSE.

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