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How Valuable is Bosh Anyway?

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  • How Valuable is Bosh Anyway?

    To begin with Bosh puts up some very good scoring and rebounding numbers, however let us look a little deeper into those numbers

    In the games that Bosh played the Raptors were 35 - 35. Over the course of the season when Bosh was on the court the Raptors did no better than break even points wise with their opponents. See "One Year Unadjusted Ratings" on link below.

    Okay so one would say that the rest of the team stunk and without Bosh the Raptors would have been lucky to win 20 games. That seems like a reasonable argument. But does that make Bosh a "Max Contract" player.

    Lets try a comparison, I am sure Apollo will have plenty to say about this.

    Most Raptors fans agree that Johnson is probably worth about $4 - $5 million a year. Some say less but I don't know of any that say more. So let us go with $4.5 million a year in the first year of his contract. That seems reasonable. Now lets look at how the Raptors did when Johnson was on the court.

    Johnson played in all 82 games about 18 minutes a game. Most of those minutes were as a key rotation player and usually the first big off of the bench. So certainly most of minutes weren't garbage minutes.

    For the year per 100 possessions when Johnson was on the court the Raptors actually outscored their opponents by 2 points per 100 possessions, the most by any Raptors player. Well one could argue that most of those minutes were bench minutes and they would not translate if he started. Given his high foul rate I think that that argument seems reasonable.

    However, lets see what Johnson actually did when he was given a chance to start. To begin with the Raptors were 3 - 2 in the games that he started. Yes the three wins were against the Knicks and Pistons but they were still wins. In those 5 games Johnson averaged 33 mpg which are acceptable starters minutes. He also averaged 18 ppg and 6 rpg while shooting 70% from the field. In addition while he was on the court during those five games that he started the Raptors outscored their opponents by 8.2 ppg. Now this is a small sample but there is no evidence to suggest that this would not extrapolate if he started more games given that he averaged 33 mpg as a starter.

    In any case this is not about Johnson but about Bosh. If we all agree that Johnson is worth $4.5 million next season or maybe even a little less, yet the Raptors performed better as a team when he was on the court than when Bosh was on the court and even better when Johnson started, is Bosh really worth a "Max Contract"

    After all as some Raptors fans have pointed out Johnson was only a 18 mpg "scrub" last season.


    http://basketballvalue.com/teamplaye...=DESC&team=TOR

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/...h49f4DPOg9PaB4
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Tue May 4, 2010, 01:52 PM.
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  • #2
    Lets look at the Raptors record during the seven years that Bosh has been with them.

    Wins = 254
    Losses = 320
    Win % = .443%

    Plus .500 season = One

    The argument one can make for Bosh being a "Max Contract" player is that the Raptors haven't won during the during the seven years that he has been in Toronto because of bad coaching and lack of supporting talent. There certainly appears to be some validity to that argument.

    However, it seems to me that especially in light of the first post on this thread that to say that Bosh is a "Max Contract" player might be stretching it more than a bit.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/
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    • #3
      Obviously Bosh is not a max player when compared to LeBron and Wade, but is he comparable to a player like Amare or Gasol, who will be paid approximately the same as Bosh? Instead of saying that Bosh is not worth the same as LeBron, you could say that, because of the contract limits, players like LeBron or Wade will never make what they normally would, so could be argued to be underpaid. In that case, Bosh would be worth the max, because he's not being compared to the 3 or 4 players who are a step above everyone else.

      Besides, who are the Raptors saving the money for? Is Wade going to sign with the Raptors?
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      • #4
        I'm with Tim. Bosh's market value is the same as James' or Wade's. It's because of the maximum contract cap and the fact that many teams will be willing to give Bosh the maximum contract amount.

        If the market dictates $120M then that's his value. It doesn't matter if its the same as LeBron and Wade get. There is a cap and so you can't make comparisons like that. Teams would pay more than $120M for James if they could, I'm sure.
        Last edited by Apollo; Tue May 4, 2010, 02:17 PM.

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        • #5
          TIm W. wrote: View Post
          Obviously Bosh is not a max player when compared to LeBron and Wade, but is he comparable to a player like Amare or Gasol, who will be paid approximately the same as Bosh? Instead of saying that Bosh is not worth the same as LeBron, you could say that, because of the contract limits, players like LeBron or Wade will never make what they normally would, so could be argued to be underpaid. In that case, Bosh would be worth the max, because he's not being compared to the 3 or 4 players who are a step above everyone else.

          Besides, who are the Raptors saving the money for? Is Wade going to sign with the Raptors?
          What evidence do you have to support that? There is a lot more to winning basketball than scoring and rebounding.

          Bring me some evidence other than points and rebounds and a losing Raptors record over seven years to support your position. Thanks.
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          • #6
            Apollo wrote: View Post
            I'm with Tim. Bosh's market value is the same as James' or Wade's. It's because of the maximum contract cap and the fact that many teams will be willing to give Bosh the maximum contract amount.

            If the market dictates $120M then that's his value. It doesn't matter if its the same as LeBron and Wade get. There is a cap and so you can't make comparisons like that. Teams would pay more than $120M for James if they could, I'm sure.
            The Cavs have gotten to the Finals with Lebron and have had the best record in the NBA over the last two seasons What have the Raptors done during Bosh's tenure? A "Max Contract" guy makes everyone else on their team better. How has Bosh done that?
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            • #7
              It seems to me that there is one argument that someone could legitimately make for Bosh being a a "Max Contract" guy.

              That is based upon the incremental revenue, profit and value that he generates for the Raptors franchise.

              However, this in and of itself begs the question.

              Rather than paying Bosh the "Max Contract" would the Raptors have a better product and be more profitable if they replaced Bosh's "Max Contract" with two or three other players who could contribute more to the Raptors winning than Bosh has done over the last seven years?

              Bosh will probably get a "Max Contract" and if MLSE does wind up being the organization paying it to him they had better be prepared to go well over the luxury tax threshold if they hope to put a winning, conference finals or better, team on the court.
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              • #8
                Rather than paying Bosh the "Max Contract" would the Raptors have a better product and be more profitable if they replaced Bosh's "Max Contract" with two or three other players who could contribute more to the Raptors winning than Bosh has done over the last seven years?
                Man.. i guess. But I don't know where you think we are getting 2 or 3 decent players are coming from. And even then, you are using 2 or 3 guys to replace the production of 1. We got 2 or 3 guys for Vince and that didn't work out so hot. You've must've played one sport when your best guy left to go to some girlfriends house, and then all of a sudden you have a team of average dudes, and all of sudden, the game goes downhill.. just sayin'

                I'd like to think if we lose Bosh we'll get a few solid players/picks back, but I think we are in hard shape for another couple of years.

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                • #9
                  im starting to suspect that something maybe going on between Amir and Buddha....If buddha is a woman, then thats all good, but if buddha is a guy, then man, that's just wrong. hahaha just kidding!

                  i like Amir, dont get me wrong, but quoting Apollo's words, "comparing the two is just unfair" (or something to that extent). Amir is nowhere near what Bosh has accomplished. Eventhough people are saying he became the Raps franchise player by default, he still performed as a franchise player. Numbers-wise, id say he is a max contract player, but it takes more than that, you have to be an effective, vocal leader that is highly respected by his teammates, and Bosh aint any of that. For an NBA pro to be twitting, posting videos on youtube, it just goes to show that he is not ready to lead a team. I mean, do you see Lebron, Kobe, Dirk, Duncan, Carmelo, Wade doing these things? Being a franchise player comes with maturity and maturity is the result of responsibility. Bosh doesnt have (or probably doesnt want to acknowledge) the responsibility that these other players have, and thats why he doesnt deserve the max contract.

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                  • #10
                    Buddahfan wrote: View Post
                    The Cavs have gotten to the Finals with Lebron and have had the best record in the NBA over the last two seasons What have the Raptors done during Bosh's tenure? A "Max Contract" guy makes everyone else on their team better. How has Bosh done that?
                    Applying a monetary number to a player doesnt always make sense (visavis their statistical numbers). Is Zach Randolph worth his salary or Jermaine Oneal his? Most times the values get skewed because of the year, market/franchise, perceived value to the team, competition in the f/a class and possibily affection of the owner's daughter.

                    In my view the best application of value definition is "how does the player make the team around him better". If this question is answered honestly using pure bb insight then a valued descision can be made to retain or go in another direction. I attached a link in another thread about the Gasol trade and how the same player could not achieve his max. with the Grizzlies as he now does with the Lakers. It seems both teams have achieved much from that trade.

                    I feel the same about Bosh. I dont think his skill set allows the Raptors to become more than just a .500 or sligthly better (maybe 50 win team). Such a record barely makes it to the 2nd round with any degree of certainty as evidenced by the Mavs exit amongst others (I know the Raps play in the east but....). I am ambivalent about his retention with the Raps. Either way, much has to be added/tweaked.

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                    • #11
                      Buddahfan wrote: View Post
                      The Cavs have gotten to the Finals with Lebron and have had the best record in the NBA over the last two seasons What have the Raptors done during Bosh's tenure? A "Max Contract" guy makes everyone else on their team better. How has Bosh done that?
                      A "max contract guy" is a guy who is making the maximum allowed salary as per market demand. Again, if there was no cap on player salary LeBron James would get more than Bosh. Contacts have never been in proportion to real worth. They're directly related to what the highest bidder is willing to pay, aka. market price.

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                      • #12
                        Buddahfan wrote: View Post
                        The Cavs have gotten to the Finals with Lebron and have had the best record in the NBA over the last two seasons What have the Raptors done during Bosh's tenure? A "Max Contract" guy makes everyone else on their team better. How has Bosh done that?
                        I think youre missing Apollo's point here. It doesnt matter if Lebron and Wade are better than Bosh, there is a cap on the max salary players can get. Even if Lebron and Wade deserve $400million, they wont get it because there is a cap. Now Bosh, eventhough he doesnt deserve the $120mil, he will get it because he is labeled as a franchise player. Since Lebron and Wade cannot go up any level higher, they will have to be classified to the same level as Bosh, gets? And Bosh is in that level because you cant put him as a 2nd or 3rd tier player. Id say he is in-between great and best, great being lebron, wade, best being gasol, parker. the in-betweens would aslo include amare, boozer.

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                        • #13
                          Buddahfan wrote: View Post
                          It seems to me that there is one argument that someone could legitimately make for Bosh being a a "Max Contract" guy.

                          That is based upon the incremental revenue, profit and value that he generates for the Raptors franchise.

                          However, this in and of itself begs the question.

                          Rather than paying Bosh the "Max Contract" would the Raptors have a better product and be more profitable if they replaced Bosh's "Max Contract" with two or three other players who could contribute more to the Raptors winning than Bosh has done over the last seven years?

                          Bosh will probably get a "Max Contract" and if MLSE does wind up being the organization paying it to him they had better be prepared to go well over the luxury tax threshold if they hope to put a winning, conference finals or better, team on the court.
                          Logically, that should be the case, we get equal value for what Bosh is worth. If we're in a perfect world, Colangelo would have done that in an instant. But we're not in a perfect world, Bosh will get his "max contract" no matter what, and if we try to trade him, we'd more likely get less value. Bosh being undecided upto now is just icing on the cake for GMs. The more Bosh shows indication that he is not resigning with Toronto, the more leverage the GMs have to offer mediocre trades. Coz GMs know, Toronto would be looking for any "satisfactory" deal just to unload Bosh. The only thing good we have going right now is Bosh hasnt said that he wont sign with Toronto, coz if he does, might as well just let him walk. We all saw what happened when VC asked for a trade, believe it or not, the a. williams, e.williams, mourning trade whas probably the best offer we received on the table.

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                          • #14
                            Buddahfan wrote: View Post
                            The Cavs have gotten to the Finals with Lebron and have had the best record in the NBA over the last two seasons What have the Raptors done during Bosh's tenure? A "Max Contract" guy makes everyone else on their team better. How has Bosh done that?
                            Again, you're comparing Bosh to Lebron. LeBron is already, probably, one of the top ten players of all time. There is no comparison. Your argument says that only 4 or 5 players in the entire league should make the maximum. You think that teams are not going to offer the max to anyone else?

                            And Bosh has had little chance to really show the type of player he is. Obviously he improves the team quite a bit. I'd say, without Bosh this season, the Raptors don't win 30 games. Even 25 might have been stretching. That type of player is not very common. If Bosh were surrounded by the quality of players that, say, Dirk is surrounded by, that team wins 55+ games and Bosh probably finishes in the top 5 in MVP voting.

                            Buddahfan wrote: View Post
                            Rather than paying Bosh the "Max Contract" would the Raptors have a better product and be more profitable if they replaced Bosh's "Max Contract" with two or three other players who could contribute more to the Raptors winning than Bosh has done over the last seven years?
                            I've heard this argument before, but in the NBA, quantity does not equal quality. Never has, never will. What would make more sense is to sign Bosh to the max, and then surround him with players who could contribute more to winning that the current roster has. Do you not think that the $30 that will be spent on Bargnani, Turkoglu and Calderon next season could be better spent on players who play both ends of the court?

                            Even a trio of Brendan Haywood, Trevor Ariza and Andre Miller, who would make more than $10 million LESS than their Raptor counterparts, would be a better supporting cast for Bosh. THAT'S where the money needs to be spent more wisely.

                            Players of Bosh's calibre are not easily obtained. GIving him a max contract is not something I would hesitate doing. It's not his contract that is going to probably be the anchor on this team.
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                            • #15
                              Here's an argument everyone on the republic should enjoy. If you were to replace Bosh with Noah would this team be better? I say yes. How much does Noah get paid? Not the max. How much should Bosh be paid? You guessed it, less than the max. This is not just about Bosh's value as a player, it's about Bosh's value to this team. His skill set (other than rebounding) is not a fit with the other guys we have signed. Unless something happens to change up the rest of the line up, Bosh is not worth the max to Toronto and should not be given the max.

                              The Noah reference was an example, I realize we will not get Noah.
                              "Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."

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