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Is Bosh to blame for our performance? Or is it all Triano's fault?

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  • Is Bosh to blame for our performance? Or is it all Triano's fault?

    Another disappointing loss today. This time against the superior Suns. It was not only Steve Nash and Stoudemire that beat on every Raptor tonight. There were seven Suns in double figures. Nash and Stoudemire made key plays in the second, third and fourth quarter to help their team win this game. Bosh “seemed” to be the only player that had a good stat line. I say “seemed” because what he did on the court did not result into a victory. You probably will ask what else he could have done to help out. Isn’t 30 and 17 enough? It is more than enough!
    On every Raptor win this year Bosh was the catalyst on defense. He made key plays to stop a run he scored when it really mattered and made “hustle” plays.
    Today his +/- was at -16. Belinelli who did not score a point had only 3 rebounds and 17 minute on the floor was at +13. He was the only one of two Raptors to have a + rating on today’s game.
    Then I started wondering what if Bosh’s rating tonight was not an aberration. I looked at his personal production at for the season and confirmed the following:

    Bosh individual production per 48 minutes this year is at -1.3. The Net48 stat denotes the team’s net points per 48 minutes of playing time for the player. To put this in context Stoudemire’s individual production per 48 minutes is at +6. They both play above 70% of the team's total minutes. Stoudemire’s +/- so far this year at +67. Bosh is seating at -17.

    The year the Raptors won 47 games Bosh was at +3.4 (per 48 minutes) and +187 (+/- rating) for the year.

    What does all this tells us? Bosh is playing for himself this year. He is purely playing for the big contract. His individual production from last year matches this year with an eerie similarity. Sure the season is still young but the Raptors as a team is not taking positive steps to improve.

    Then I also considered why Bosh’s production has trailed off since last season. The only factor I could think of was Jay Triano. As I mentioned in a previous post in this blog I do not believe that Triano is the right coach for Toronto at this point. He does not push (or maybe he does, but he does not know what buttons to push) his players hard enough.
    Triano’s substitutions were not great today. Every writer (yes, even Mr. Smith) has hinted that his substitutions and on court combinations do not make sense. Is this another reason for Bosh’s poor performance this and last season?
    Another stat I would like to share with you is to support what Doc suggested the other day about starting Nesterovic over Bargnani:

    Player Min Own Opp Net
    Bosh 74% 30.9 19 11.9
    Turkoglu 67% 15.9 14.2 1.8
    Nesterovic 11% 28.5 13.3 15.2
    Belinelli 38% 17.2 16.1 1.1
    Bargnani 68% 18.9 21.6 -2.8
    Calderon 69% 17.3 21.4 -4.1

    Even though Nesterovic is playing 11% of the team minutes he is FIRST in net production so far this year. Bosh is second with 11.9 and then there is the rest……
    Last edited by panagnos; Sun Nov 29th, 2009, 11:10 PM.

  • #2
    Looking at a players +/- is pretty useless since it doesn't take into account quality of the players he is playing with or against. Most of Marco's time came against Phoenix's bench, which isn't very strong. The difference between Bosh's +/- this year and the 47 win season can be contributed to the people he was playing with, and against. That was a brutal year for the Atlantic conference, and definitely helped inflate the Raps win total.

    I think Bosh is playing better than ever this year, especially when it comes to offensive rebounding. The other major difference between this years teams and the 47 win team was defense. TJ was able to keep opposing guards out the lane better, and when they did get by him, Garbojosa, Rasho, and Parker were all very good team defenders, ready to provide help and rotate.

    This years team is comprised of very good offensive players, who range from average to awful man defenders, and are even worse when it comes to team defense.
    I Am Shutup


    • #3
      I'm not sure how your analysis implies that "Bosh is playing for himself this year". You pointed out his +/- as being lower than previous years which can easily be attributed to the bad defense we're playing and how the starters are collectively getting schooled. Note that none of the starters against Phoenix had a positive +/-.

      Belinelli happened to be on the floor when Hedo made two three-point plays (end 3, start 4) and Jack/Johnson came into give a lift (start 2nd) when the our second-unit outplayed theirs. Other than some average defense, he himself played quite shyte.

      To understand what lineups worked it's better to look at the game flow rather than individual +/-.


      • #4
        MAttyG-Ray and Arsenalist,

        You took my Belinelli analogy out of context. The point I was trying to make with it is that if Belinelli and Jack had a + rating and they were actually pretty bad against the Suns then you can imagine how bad the rest of the team was.....

        Now if Bosh is playing better why aren't the Raptors winning more games? Sure they are not a great team. Look at the Heat. Look at Cleveland. Without Wade and Lebron they would be 25 win teams for the season. Look at the positive effect they have on their team without posting numbers above their averages this year. What makes them special is their ability to shift the game to their team’s advantage.

        You can all argue that Bosh does not have the ball in his hands as much as Wade and Lebron throughout the game. True. How about D. Howard? He does not have the ball in his hands as much either but he makes a huge difference when he is on the court.

        I know that +/- ratings can be deceiving and I always look through them with skepticism. In this instance they point to the undeniable truth that the Raptors are not a better team on the court when Bosh is playing. Also, I am not blaming only Bosh here. I asked the question what if this is Triano's fault.......


        • #5
          You're missing something here. With Bosh the Raptors are around a .500 club right now, without him they would sink. I'm not sure how you can sit here and suggest that Bosh is the problem. The guy is a one man wrecking machine out there and without him they would train wreck. I don't know how you can blame Bosh for the likes of Calderon and Turkoglu blowing their assignments or for the likes of Jack missing uncontested shots. Bosh can only do so much and right now he's playing to the max. I wish he was a stronger leader but at the end of the day these are all big boys, making big bucks and as such they need to be able to lift themselves up at times. They're all professionals...The only problem is half of them seem to think they're only getting paid for offense.


          • #6
            Meh, the +/- stat is still one of the most ridiculous in professional sports. We were also a much more significant team defensively back in 2006-07 too. With players like Garbajosa, Mo Pete, Anthony Parker (nearing the end of his prime) and even a younger more active Rasho who played decent minutes and could be considered a defensive stalwart at times.

            And even if you think Bosh is playing for himself right now, good for him. Its not his fault that the teammates aren't doing their part. Defensively I don't see how Bosh's approach is any different than it was 3 years ago. The problem now is that Colangelo built a team which excels in offense while not executing on defense.


            • #7
              Every stat has its issues.
              +/- only is useful if you can assess when it was accumulated - same as points and boards.

              Triano has had over 25 games with this group (incl preseason) and he still doesn't know what players are effective together on the floor.

              And the complaint about his inability to recognize trends early and call timeouts while it still matters is gaining a lot of merit.

              How much time does BC give his "rookie" coach?
              Jay's driving me nuts watching his in game decisions - especially the ones that have failed for 25 games.
              The best Raptors discussion board is at Raptors Republic.

              Stephen Brotherston, Pro Bball Report


              • #8
                Are you all saying that Wade, who has +/- rating of +74 and net48 rating of +6 has a better team around him?

                I DOUBT IT.

                There are two key differences here between Wade and Bosh. First Wade is a better overall player than Bosh and second is better coaching.
                Last edited by panagnos; Mon Nov 30th, 2009, 09:19 PM.