Would You Be Upset If Bosh Stayed in Toronto?

[Tim W.]

Tim

You are absolutely right that we say Bargs will get better at the four way to often. What I always mean is that Bargs will move to the high post, which may be a better position for him. It also may be terrible since he has never really played there before. That is the big thing with Bargs: it's great for me to say he will do great as out number one option, but I really have no idea. The thought is that his game and physical abilities are similar to Bosh's or Dirk's in terms of offence and so the high post would be great, but there is no evidence that this is true. As of late, I'm losing my confidence that Bargs will be able to be the future. I keep trying to come with arguments but all of my points are rooted in the fact that he's talented, not that he's actually done anything. I still havn't given up hope, but it's getting harder to be confident in his ability to actually accomplish anything. Not that I think he would be a whole lot worse than Bosh, but if we want a title, why take either?

Moving to the PF spot does have anything to do with playing the high post. A center can play the high post just as well as a PF.

And lots of players are talented, but talent doesn't equate to success. You need certain skills, including a high basketball IQ, confidence, desire etc. in order to harness that talent. It's often the intangibles that separates a good player from a great player.

[hateslosing]

First thing, Multipaul may be one of my favorite posters. Always makes me laugh.

Tim

You are absolutely right that we say Bargs will get better at the four way to often. What I always mean is that Bargs will move to the high post, which may be a better position for him. It also may be terrible since he has never really played there before. That is the big thing with Bargs: it's great for me to say he will do great as out number one option, but I really have no idea. The thought is that his game and physical abilities are similar to Bosh's or Dirk's in terms of offence and so the high post would be great, but there is no evidence that this is true. As of late, I'm losing my confidence that Bargs will be able to be the future. I keep trying to come with arguments but all of my points are rooted in the fact that he's talented, not that he's actually done anything. I still havn't given up hope, but it's getting harder to be confident in his ability to actually accomplish anything. Not that I think he would be a whole lot worse than Bosh, but if we want a title, why take either?

[Tim W.]

Multipaul,

Your argument is well thought out and researched. You make some very valid points. In fact, I'm starting to rethink my opinion of Bargnani. Nice job!

[Multipaul]

Bargnani rules

[Tim W.]

I never said he would be good, I'm saying those games are not a good indication of what he can do. If he had improved I would say, "well if he did that well in an offense that wasn't designed for him, imagine what he will do when they start setting up the system for him". The point I'm trying to make is people look at those games and try to extrapolate and that is just not a good plan. It's like conducting a reaction below freezing than expecting the same result at 1000 Celsius, maybe the same thing will happen but it's not very likely. Different conditions almost always lead to a differnt result and until you actually see those conditions at work (in this case Bargs at the 4 with the offense going through him) it is pretty impossible to make a judgement.

That said, you do have a point about him not demanding the ball, but that is not something that is based just on those games Bosh was out. Bargs has always had issues demanding the ball and it is something he needs to work on a lot if he's going to be the focal point of our offense.

I don't think people are extrapolating the stats from that game, but simply looking at how he played in those games. He certainly didn't impress. He didn't use the chance to try and take over games. In most cases it was the opposite. I already gave you a couple of examples of 2nd scorers stepping up their game when the leading scorer went out. In those cases, they played completely different positions, so they would have to have made an effort to get more shots. Bargnani did not.

And can you tell me what difference it would make on offense if Bargnani played the 4 instead of the 5? A player alters his game depending who is on the court with him, not at what position he's pencilled in at. People get way, WAY, too caught up in differences between C and PF on offense. They're interchangeable. The only difference is what players you can defend. Hell, if you want to be a stickler, you should say that Bargnani should play better at center because, historically, the offense runs more through the center than the PF. There have been more higher scoring centers than PFs.

And what exactly would be the advantage to the team of running the offense through Bargnani? He's not a great passer and doesn't create his own shot very well. What exactly is he going to do with the ball? And where is he going to get it? Because of what Bosh can do with the ball, the Raptors ran the offense through him. He could get it at the elbow or in the post and create scoring opportunities for himself, or simply draw double teams, which would create scoring opportunities for his teammates. His biggest problem was that he wasn't a great passer, but he could still create offense.

[hateslosing]

I never said he would be good, I'm saying those games are not a good indication of what he can do. If he had improved I would say, "well if he did that well in an offense that wasn't designed for him, imagine what he will do when they start setting up the system for him". The point I'm trying to make is people look at those games and try to extrapolate and that is just not a good plan. It's like conducting a reaction below freezing than expecting the same result at 1000 Celsius, maybe the same thing will happen but it's not very likely. Different conditions almost always lead to a differnt result and until you actually see those conditions at work (in this case Bargs at the 4 with the offense going through him) it is pretty impossible to make a judgement.

That said, you do have a point about him not demanding the ball, but that is not something that is based just on those games Bosh was out. Bargs has always had issues demanding the ball and it is something he needs to work on a lot if he's going to be the focal point of our offense.

[Brasky]

It is silly to try and use that data as representative of Bargs' ability to be the number one option.

As opposed to pure speculation based on your own personal feelings?
This data is the best indicator we have, otherwise we're just guessing. It'd be silly to disregard the data just because it doesn't fit your ideal of how Bargnani should be producing. Had he improved his production across the board when Bosh was out I bet you'd be singing a different tune. You can blame the coaching all you want, but big time players will find a way to impact the game. For all his supposed offensive talents, it's his own fault for not demanding the ball, especially in a free flowing offense like the raptors.

[hateslosing]

In the games Bosh missed, Bargnani scored 15.3 ppg, shooting 46%, and 4.7 rpg. All below his seasonal average. His offensive numbers were helped by the last couple of games against really bad Knick and Pistons teams that didn't play much defense. 7 of those teams were .500 or under. Generally, when the main player goes out, the secondary player's stats rise. The games that Kobe missed this year, Gasol stepped up his game and produced more. The games Brandon Roy missed, LaMarcus Aldridge averaged well about his seasonal averages. This wasn't the case with Bargnani.

And it's not odd that Bargnani took the same amount of shots per game. With fewer double teams on Bosh, Bargnani had fewer open shots. Bargnani simply doesn't create well enough to get open looks without someone else creating scoring opportunities for him.

So Tim. W who did take more shots the first time went Bosh went down? I'm looking through our Roster and it looks Like Reggie Evans and Amir Johnson took the bulk which implies to me that the Raptors were using the exact same plays as if Bosh will still in the game. The point I'm trying to make here is that those games are not representative of what Bargs can do as the focal point of your offence and it irritates me when people try to use it as an example of what we can expect in that situation. If those games indicate anything it is that 1. our coaching staff was woefully unprepared to make the adjustment to Bosh being gone and 2. that Bargs has very little self confidence, and was not asked to step up, so he didn't. I don't like what that says about Bargs but it is silly to try and use that data as representative of Bargs' ability to be the number one option.

As far as this perimeter big thing goes, I think you need to be more specific about "perimeter". I think Bosh may the the second best high post or mid ranged big behind Dirk while I think Bargs is probably the among the best three point bigs. Whether Bargs can make the transition to the high post will define whether or not he can be a #1.

[Tim W.]

This has to be the most off-base comment I have ever read. Bosh is the #2 permiter big- are you smoking something? Can I have some??

What's wrong with this comment? Who's a better perimeter big than Bosh, other than Dirk?

[Tim W.]

There is this idea floating around that Bargs played bad when Bargs went down at the end of the season so I decided to look into it. Bosh went out on April 6th against the Cavs for the rest of the season which consisted of 5 games. Here are Barg's Point totals for those games

Vs. Boston: 17
vs. ATL: 15
vs. Chi: 18
vs. Det: 33
vs. NYK: 24

I don't think those are terrible numbers especially since there was some time where the offense had to adjust to Bosh being gone and let's face it, no one played well against Chicago.
But what about the other time Bosh was injured in February? He went down on Feb 17 and came back on the 7th. Here are Bargs' numbers for the games in between (these are actually pretty bad).
vs. NJN: 13
vs. Wash: 18
vs. Por: 15
vs. Cle: 24
vs. OKC: 14
vs. Hou: 14
vs. NYK: 9 (ouch)

Then Bosh was back. These numbers are bad, but I would like to note that Barg's FGA per game didn't go above 17 (vs. Cle) which is odd since that's not a whole lot more than he normally takes. Point is, people use this pool of 12 games to represent how Bargs will play despite the system being set up for Bosh, the adjustments that had to be made, and the fact that this was the first time Bargs has ever been the guy on this or any team in the NBA.

In the games Bosh missed, Bargnani scored 15.3 ppg, shooting 46%, and 4.7 rpg. All below his seasonal average. His offensive numbers were helped by the last couple of games against really bad Knick and Pistons teams that didn't play much defense. 7 of those teams were .500 or under. Generally, when the main player goes out, the secondary player's stats rise. The games that Kobe missed this year, Gasol stepped up his game and produced more. The games Brandon Roy missed, LaMarcus Aldridge averaged well about his seasonal averages. This wasn't the case with Bargnani.

And it's not odd that Bargnani took the same amount of shots per game. With fewer double teams on Bosh, Bargnani had fewer open shots. Bargnani simply doesn't create well enough to get open looks without someone else creating scoring opportunities for him.

[Brasky]

This has to be the most off-base comment I have ever read. Bosh is the #2 permiter big- are you smoking something? Can I have some??

By perimeter I didn't mean solely outside the three point line .. more so bigs who tend to face up and use the jump shot frequently.
Who would you put above Bosh? Garnett? Aldridge? Amare?
None of them are as effective as Bosh from the high post. Get smart.

[Multipaul]

Bosh is a far better perimeter player than Bargnani. That's what Bosh is .. maybe the number 2 perimeter big in the league behind Dirk. Bargnani has more range than Bosh, and that's about it. 75% of his offense depends upon Bosh's double team or a drive and kick .. We've seen how his offense falls apart when he's been 'The Man'.

This has to be the most off-base comment I have ever read. Bosh is the #2 permiter big- are you smoking something? Can I have some??

[Apollo]

If Bargnani is going to be the number one option the team is going to need a better PG and a wing that can create. On top of that they're also going to need a defensive/rebounding specialist in the paint. Talk about a shake up.

[hateslosing]

Bosh is a far better perimeter player than Bargnani. That's what Bosh is .. maybe the number 2 perimeter big in the league behind Dirk. Bargnani has more range than Bosh, and that's about it. 75% of his offense depends upon Bosh's double team or a drive and kick .. We've seen how his offense falls apart when he's been 'The Man'.

There is this idea floating around that Bargs played bad when Bargs went down at the end of the season so I decided to look into it. Bosh went out on April 6th against the Cavs for the rest of the season which consisted of 5 games. Here are Barg's Point totals for those games

Vs. Boston: 17
vs. ATL: 15
vs. Chi: 18
vs. Det: 33
vs. NYK: 24

I don't think those are terrible numbers especially since there was some time where the offense had to adjust to Bosh being gone and let's face it, no one played well against Chicago.
But what about the other time Bosh was injured in February? He went down on Feb 17 and came back on the 7th. Here are Bargs' numbers for the games in between (these are actually pretty bad).
vs. NJN: 13
vs. Wash: 18
vs. Por: 15
vs. Cle: 24
vs. OKC: 14
vs. Hou: 14
vs. NYK: 9 (ouch)

Then Bosh was back. These numbers are bad, but I would like to note that Barg's FGA per game didn't go above 17 (vs. Cle) which is odd since that's not a whole lot more than he normally takes. Point is, people use this pool of 12 games to represent how Bargs will play despite the system being set up for Bosh, the adjustments that had to be made, and the fact that this was the first time Bargs has ever been the guy on this or any team in the NBA.

[Brasky]

it frees him up to be more of a perimeter player... something he's a TON better than bosh at... and something bargs has never had to play alongside

Bosh is a far better perimeter player than Bargnani. That's what Bosh is .. maybe the number 2 perimeter big in the league behind Dirk. Bargnani has more range than Bosh, and that's about it. 75% of his offense depends upon Bosh's double team or a drive and kick .. We've seen how his offense falls apart when he's been 'The Man'.