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  • Drew Gooden vs Amir Johnson

    Well, I make a statement that Drew Gooden is overpaid with his new Milwaukee deal and whoa... Many wondered what this may mean for Amir Johnson's deal - and then the debate began (including someone who spoke of my data being manipulated! Wow.).

    Of course, they're different players - different styles. However, it's an interesting comparison nonetheless.

    So here we go - Drew vs Amir:

    I "manipulated" these stats on a 25 min basis. Why? Drew played 25 per game last year and is not getting any younger. Late in the season - with Bosh out - Johnson consistently played >25 minutes. His numbers show an average of 4.4 PF over 25 min, so it's reasonable that he can generally stay in the game that long.

    What we see is fairly comparable stats. Gooden's pts are higher, but off a low percentage - Gooden has the 21st WORST FG% of players 6'9" and over - out of a sample of 145. Johnson was the 4th BEST out of the sample. Gooden was better on the boards, with Johnson being better in Ast, Stls, and lower turnovers. Of course, Amir's issue is fouling and certainly is well above Drew. So perhaps does he foul more as he's more active on the defensive end? Does he impact the game at this end - despite the fouls?

    This may help. While "unadjusted", it's pretty clear that one player is at one end of the spectrum and one is near the other. I added a few other players to show how poor our D was last year - and who the main culprits may have been (Bargnani and Turkoglu) and why I'm not huge on obtaining Beasley.





    We know that a NBA player's peak age is somewhere in the 25-28 age - more importantly we know a player generally declines significantly in his 30s. Drew Gooden will be 29 when the season starts. Amir Johnson will be 23 years old.

    I had the opportunity to meet and chat with Drew Gooden a few years back. A truly great man to talk to and I'm happy he received such a lucrative deal. The purpose of the post is only help look at the debate of the relative value of Johnson vs Gooden.

    Note: this data comes directly from basketballvalue.com - only the presentation was changed (no, not manipulated!)
    Last edited by Liston; Thu Jul 1, 2010, 02:50 PM.
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  • #2
    I think when you get into the MLE range and slightly above a lot of times the contract can be based upon a teams needs as much as anything else.

    Look at Reggie Evans - He got a 2 year $10 million deal from the Raptors. Gooden is definitely better than Evans.

    As far as Johnson compared to Gooden we will just have to wait and see how it unfolds.

    As far as a player reaching their peak. That can be measured in a number of ways. It took Michael I believe 8 years in the NBA before he won a title. Lebron still hasn't.

    There is a lot more to a good players games than just stats. Athletically most basketball players may peak around 25 however, their overall game can continue to grow well into their late twenties and even as late as their early thirties before it peaks.
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Thu Jul 1, 2010, 02:27 PM.
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    • #3
      Buddahfan wrote: View Post
      Look at Reggie Evans - He got a 2 year $10 million deal from the Raptors.
      That is not correct - Philly gave him that big deal. We trade Jason Kapono for - same years left in contract, but Evans is paid less. Plus - in theory, was a better fit at the time.
      The deal was about SAVING money and improving our toughness/D. Kapono didn't play much either last year, but at least we save a big of dough against the cap.
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      • #4
        Okay so the Raptors did not sign Evans, my bad. However, they are still paying him aren't they?

        Did Philly take back some of the $10 million? If not the Raptors are paying it so they are paying Evans $5 million a year. It is irrelevant if the Raptors dumped Kapono in the process because they could have got a player making less money for Kapono or just did a buyout.

        Unless Philly is paying part of the $10 million in cash then it is costing the Raptors $5 million a year for Evans regardless of how they obtained him and whether or not their overall payroll went down in the process of acquiring him.

        ===============
        P.S. It is my opinion that the Raptors and Johnson already have a deal. It has not been announced and I doubt submitted to the NBA league office for approval but I am sure that they already have a deal which was finalized when Johnson was here recently. He was still under contract to the Raptors at the time so once the season ended for the Raptors they were allowed to negotiate with him for a new contract.

        It will be interesting to see how much the Raptors are paying him. My guess is for 4 years at between $20 and $25 million.
        Last edited by Buddahfan; Thu Jul 1, 2010, 02:53 PM.
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        • #5
          So would signing Amir to that contract be overpaying him? or just about right? Who cares about Evans and Gooden.
          Two beer away from being two beers away.

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          • #6
            It depends on how you frame overpaying. Considering what ridiculous contracts big men get in the NBA, any deal where he makes under ten million a season would be underpaying.

            I don't understand why fans pick Amir as the test subject for the guy BC should not overpay. If he makes 5 million or 8 million does it really matter if he is the starting PF and doubling as the teams best rebounder and defender. Ideally a 4 year deal around 25 million is fair to all parties, but would people rather part with him for nothing than pay him a 4 year deal for around 36 million.

            My only fear with giving him a hefty contract is that he loses some of the hunger and desire that propelled him to his second half surge.

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            • #7
              Mess wrote: View Post
              So would signing Amir to that contract be overpaying him? or just about right? Who cares about Evans and Gooden.
              Sure it is because salaries are typically given at a market rate for approx. similar ability. Evans didnt provide value and much more has been expected from Gooden for quite some time now

              Personally, Amir showed quite a bit last season and I believe a good fit as well. I am ok with the numbers mentioned. Amir at 5mil/ would be like Jack's contract.

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              • #8
                I don't know when they will announce the deal.

                Keep in mind that the Raptors hold Johnson's Bird Rights. This means that they can pay him as much as want even if it means that the Raptors will go over the Cap limit in the process.

                However, the Raptors may not summit the contract to the league office though they may or may not announce it before they have finished signing and trading others

                The reason is, is that once a player with Bird Rights has their new contract submitted to the league office and approved then the new contract salary amount for the first year goes against the team's Cap Hold amount. Up until then unless or until a team either renounces their free agent or he signs with another team basically his salary from the least year of his just completed contract goes against the team's Cap Hold.

                In this case since Johnson's new contract will most likely pay him more in 2010-11 then he made in 2009-10 so the Raptors will increase their Cap Hold as soon as the league approves the new contract. This will then reduce the Raptor flexibility in signing other players, Exceptions not included, and doing deals.
                Last edited by Buddahfan; Thu Jul 1, 2010, 03:22 PM.
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                • #9
                  "In this case since Johnson's new contract will most likely pay him more in 2010-11 then he made in 2009-10 so the Raptors will increase their Cap Hold as soon as the league approves the new contract. This will then reduce the Raptor flexibility in signing other players, Exceptions not included, and doing deals."

                  No. The cap hold is not the last year of his contract - it is a significant raise over his last year - in his case I believe it is roughly 8 million. So, by signing him the Raps will actually free up space (not that it matters at all, considering they are over the cap with their cap holds on Bosh, Amir, Wright, POB, Rasho).
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                  • #10
                    Amir Johnson: Entertaining, hustling, AMirTV, founder of the Young Gunz, Andre 3000

                    Drew Gooden: Lazy, underachieving, does not take advantage of potential, always traded, and might again grow that UGLY-ASS duck-tail or beard.

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                    • #11
                      Buddahfan wrote: View Post
                      Did Philly take back some of the $10 million? If not the Raptors are paying it so they are paying Evans $5 million a year. It is irrelevant if the Raptors dumped Kapono in the process because they could have got a player making less money for Kapono or just did a buyout.
                      It's 100% relevant - buying a player out doesn't affect the cap space. By obtaining Evans, you're saving >$3 million over 3 seasons and *potentially* were getting a better fit for the team (if he wasn't injured). You could not have gotten a player making less money as per the trade rules. You *may* have received a player(s) with a shorter contract, but it was unlikely any team would give that up to obtain Kapono.

                      Paying Kapono big money for a lot of years was BC's mistake. Trading for Evans was not - at worst it was net neutral.

                      A long term deal with Gooden will not look good in a year or two. Just like Kapono. Just like Turkoglu.
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                      • #12
                        Mess wrote: View Post
                        So would signing Amir to that contract be overpaying him? or just about right? Who cares about Evans and Gooden.
                        I'd like to see them offer 3 or 4 years at less per year.
                        Seems like the year when a lot of players will be overpaid. (See Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson, Darko Milicic, etc)
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                        • #13
                          Liston wrote: View Post
                          It's 100% relevant - buying a player out doesn't affect the cap space. By obtaining Evans, you're saving >$3 million over 3 seasons and *potentially* were getting a better fit for the team (if he wasn't injured). You could not have gotten a player making less money as per the trade rules. You *may* have received a player(s) with a shorter contract, but it was unlikely any team would give that up to obtain Kapono.

                          Paying Kapono big money for a lot of years was BC's mistake. Trading for Evans was not - at worst it was net neutral.

                          A long term deal with Gooden will not look good in a year or two. Just like Kapono. Just like Turkoglu.
                          Are the Raptors paying Evans $5 million cash a year for two years or not? Please answer that question.
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                          • #14
                            Liston wrote: View Post
                            I'd like to see them offer 3 or 4 years at less per year.
                            Seems like the year when a lot of players will be overpaid. (See Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson, Darko Milicic, etc)
                            I agree that Johnson and Gay are being overpaid but not Darko.

                            How many games have you seen Darko play in over the last 3 years especially last season when he was with the T-Wolves. My guess not even five?

                            I saw him play at least 10 games last season. He is not being over paid
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                            Memories some so sweet, indeed

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                            • #15
                              Buddahfan wrote: View Post
                              Okay so the Raptors did not sign Evans, my bad. However, they are still paying him aren't they?

                              Did Philly take back some of the $10 million? If not the Raptors are paying it so they are paying Evans $5 million a year. It is irrelevant if the Raptors dumped Kapono in the process because they could have got a player making less money for Kapono or just did a buyout.
                              This is a horrible argument. Your original point was that the Raptors felt Evans was worth $5 mil a year because we gave him that deal. You can say the Raptors felt Kapono was worth the MLE deal he got because we signed him to that. But it would be just as incorrect to say Evans is worth $5 mil just because it's not subsidized (and why should it when we're not subsidizing Kapono) as it would be to say we felt Nesterovic was worth the $8+ mil he was paid by us during his first Raptors tour. The only thing you can say about either of those two cases is that the Raptors felt Evans was a better fit than Kapono, who was no longer worth the MLE to the Raptors, and Nesterovic was a better fit than Eric Williams + Matt Bonner combined.

                              You mention getting a player making less money or doing a buyout, but the former is irrelevant (#1 what would be in it for the other team to give us considerably less in salary while taking Kapono's bad contract off our hands, and #2 if you're getting a bad contract in return, you might as well go for fit) and the latter... what do you think players are willing to be bought out for? Obviously neither Evans nor Kapono would be willing to be bought out at an amount that would be worth the Raptors while. Deciding to pay $5 mil a year (to have a warm body on your roster) rather than paying $4-4.5 mil a year (to probably have to find another contract to sit at the end of your bench) does not mean the player is worth $5 mil. If anything, the worth of the player would be more accurately defined by the potential savings the team would obtain via buy out.

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