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Why The Current Raptors Squad Would Win More Games Than The 09-10 Version

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  • Why The Current Raptors Squad Would Win More Games Than The 09-10 Version

    I am using the word "would" rather than "should" because BC may still make at least one more significant roster move between now and November.

    I want to begin by stating that the reason I did and do not want to get into seedings and win total predictions yet for 10-11 is because I expect more roster changes before November among the teams in the EC, including possibly the Raptors.

    Having said that I am going to look at the current roster vs 09-10

    Lets start with Offense 09-10 numbers on the left - Proj 10-11 numbers on right based upon the current roster makeup.

    Bargnani----17----18 (Being conservative)
    Bosh--------24-----0
    Johnson------5----12 (Johnson's 5 ppg was in the games that Bosh played)
    Davis--------0------6
    Evans--------3-----3 (He didn't play in many games. I expect more games but no change in ppg)
    Rasho-------4------0
    Alabi---------0-----4
    ---------------------------
    Total-------53-----42 - Minus 10

    So far down 10 on offense. Lets continue

    Turkoglue----11----0 ( 13 per 36 minutes)
    Kleiza--------0-----13 (career average is 16 per 36 minutes, 3 more than Turk)
    Weems-------8-----10
    ----------------------
    Total--------19----23 Plus 4

    Now we are down 6

    Jack--------11-----11
    Calderon----10-----10
    Belinelli-------7------7
    Wright-------7------0 (11.3 per 36 minutes)
    Barbosa-----0------10 (career average 19 per 36 minutes)
    DeRozan-----9------15 (clearly he is going to be a big variable on how the Raptors perform in 10-11. I am optimistic)
    ---------------------------
    Total-------46-----53 Plus 9

    (Note: Barbosa could be hirer and Belinelli lower if Barbosa gets more mpg than Wright did. In any case I see Barbosa and Belinelli as being at least a 3 ppg game gain over Belinelli and Wright)

    Grand Total plus 3.

    Now I am not sure that the Raptors will average 3 more ppg in 10-11 but it seems to me that the current roster will score at least as many points per games as the 09-10 team did. This is how I see it.

    DeRozan is certainly going to be a big key. I see him stepping up his scoring significantly to 15 ppg. I think that this is one area that the Raptors doomsayers haven't really considered or maybe they have considered but don't see happening as I do. Time of course will tell who will be correct on this.

    Now lets look at the defense
    --------------------------
    DeRozan - Should be better - 2nd season and stronger
    Calderon & Jack - No change
    Belinelli - No change
    Barbosa vs Wright - Barbosa should be better as Wright did not play very well
    Kleiza vs - Turk - I will call this one even though I do think Kleiza should be better
    Weems - Should be better - 2nd season of minutes
    Bargnani - No change - He shouldn't get worse and may even get a little better
    Evans - Should be slightly better do to being healthy
    Rasho vs Alabi - Unknown but Rasho was not the best defender so I say no change.

    Now the last three you decide

    09-10
    --------------
    Bosh -36 mpg
    Johnson -17 mpg in games in which Bosh played

    10-11
    ----------
    Johnson --- 28 mpg (I am hoping for 30 plus but will go with 28 which still may a bit high
    Davis--------25 mpg

    Minutes exceed 48 because some of those go to playing when Bargnani is not on the court. Yes I can see Johnson and Davis out there together. One can throw in Dorsey vs Rasho and I think Dorsey will be in improvement on defense

    Carlesimo replaces Ivaroni as defensive coach - improvement

    Conclusion:

    Offense should score at least as many points if not more

    Defense should be better maybe significantly.

    One variable that this does not take into account is will the EC be stronger overall which will offset some or all of the above. - It seems to me that it is too early to tell. That is why this post is in my opinion a bit premature. However, at this point with the current roster I think the Raptors will win more games than last season provided that there are no significant key injuries.

    Some fans will look at one or two player additions and subtractions and say that this team will be better and they may be correct. For example Chicago should definitely be better with their additions but the Cavs will definitely be worse. N,J. will be better but how much? The Wiz I think even with addition of Wall it is too early to tell. The Knicks. How much better is Amare than Lee in wins?

    At this point in time I see no point in going through the rosters of all the other teams in the EC and analyzing them since I like I said I expect further changes including maybe some key ones to EC teams rosters between now and November

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2010.html
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Fri Jul 23, 2010, 08:34 AM.
    Avatar: Riverboat Coffee House 134 Yorkville Ave. billboard of upcoming entertainers - Circa 1960s

    Memories some so sweet, indeed

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    “As a captain, I played furiously. I drew a lot of fouls, but I brought everything I had to every practice and to every game. I left everything on the court because I simply wanted the team to win”
    Quote from well known personality who led their high school team to a state championship.

  • #2
    I fully agree with everything you said except you didn't include Alabi in your predictions. Unless the raps intend to rotate between Amir, Andrea, and Davis, Alabi will see minutes at center since he is the only guy (other than Andrea) who is not at a complete physical disadvantage to other teams centers.
    "Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."

    -Churchill

    Comment


    • #3
      hateslosing wrote: View Post
      I fully agree with everything you said except you didn't include Alabi in your predictions. Unless the raps intend to rotate between Amir, Andrea, and Davis, Alabi will see minutes at center since he is the only guy (other than Andrea) who is not at a complete physical disadvantage to other teams centers.
      Thanks. My bad - I added Alabi as you suggested.
      Avatar: Riverboat Coffee House 134 Yorkville Ave. billboard of upcoming entertainers - Circa 1960s

      Memories some so sweet, indeed

      Larger Photo of the avatar



      “As a captain, I played furiously. I drew a lot of fouls, but I brought everything I had to every practice and to every game. I left everything on the court because I simply wanted the team to win”
      Quote from well known personality who led their high school team to a state championship.

      Comment


      • #4
        nice breakdown.

        the biggest issues i have are with respect to mpg's for both amir & davis. amir, IMO, could actually get up into the high 20's/game, i'm just not sure whether his effectiveness / per36 #'s will necessarily translate (i.e. it's a question whether he'll be as productive from an efficiency standpoint over longer periods of playing time).

        i really, really doubt davis is ready for 25 mpg, that just seems far too optimistic. i can see him gradually getting there, perhaps by jan/feb., but the first few months are going to be a feeling-out period for him, getting used to the speed/size/strength of the pro game, and getting himself into actual game-shape (a week of summer league & summer workouts isn't the same).

        both the above mean heavier minutes for bargnani, which may benefit him from an offensive standpoint (thereby offsetting some of what is lost from bosh's departure), but i think we'll be lucky if he maintains his defensive/rebounding from last year...maybe slight improvements. the only thing i'm truly hoping for from his is consistency...as one of the de facto 'leaders' & one of the few veterans, he has to come to play every game.

        as for DD - that's a pretty big jump (75% over his output from last season), and may be something of a tall order, especially on a young team that doesn't really have a true go-to guy to take pressure off him. if he hits 15ppg, that'd be fantastic, as long as he's able to do so in an efficient manner. i'd actually be surprised if weems doesn't produce a higher ppg - his poor FT shooting will definitely be an issue with him, he'll probably cost himself 2-3 ppg by that measure alone (i.e. if he shoots 60% - what he likely will - vs 80% -what he should - from the line). going to the rim & getting to the line is great, but only if you can reliably make the FTs.

        defensively, i agree that amir is an upgrade over bosh, and kleiza (or weems, if he's starting at the 3) is an upgrade over hedo. but bargs is still going to get heavy minutes at 5, so weakside post help D is going to be an issue, and jose/jack are still going to get the majority of minutes at the 1 (i assume one of them to be dealt, but it could very well be jack), so there will still be significant defensive issues at the point of attack & at the 'last line of defense.' neither weems nor kleiza have shown themselves to be shut-down defenders. DD was abysmal last year, so an improvement from that to mediocre-average would help, but not to a great degree.

        overall, i see a drop-off offensively, and marginal improvements defensively. playoffs? don't see it. and that's fine - more important to toss the guns into the fire & see who comes out smoking, and see who flames out. better to find out now than waste years trying to build around a guy (or guys) that aren't worth building around.
        TRUE LOVE - Sometimes you know it the instant you see it across the bar.

        Comment


        • #5
          Yeah, I posted something similar to this a week or so ago, looking at scoring comparisons and taking into account improvement in certain players. I came to the same conclusion, that, based on numbers, we should actually be scoring more points this year than last. Also, with the departure of Bosh and an increase in minutes for Johnson and the addition of Davis, it appears our defense will be better as well.

          Personally I think "success" next year depends primarily on 2 and a half things. Keeping or getting a pass-oriented Point Guard to ensure whatever players that are on the floor play cohesively and as a team. Second and most importantly, Derozan improving his handle. He needs to be, for at least 2 hours a day during practice, working on his dribble. Has to. Derozan's ability to create for himself will make or break the season, in my opinion. It simply relieves a lot of pressure and will keep the defense working hard, which will open up the floor. Second and a half is Bargnani's post up game The least important of the three, but, if, in conjuntion with the first two, Bargs becomes at least an average player in the post, something that with his size, speed and shot he should be able to, the Raps will be able to fulfill their offensive potential, which is very high.

          Bosh shot at a high percentage, so with his absence there should be more misses. But that's where Johnson and Davis come in. They are a perfect addition to a team, like the Raps, who will have a lot of their shots come from the midrange.

          Comment


          • #6
            Imo

            You are missing a major point - the other teams.
            Scoring more points will not win more games.
            How much better did the teams on our division and conference are?

            Example: How many games we won against Miami, or NY(without Amare), or Chicago, or Orlando, Atlanta... etc

            We will score more? In paper we should. But they will score more than us.

            As Orlando and NY wants to get CP3, or other teams wants to upgrade, IMO I would trade Calderon or anybody over the age of 27 on this roster for 1st round picks in 2011 and 2012 and blow the season.

            Comment


            • #7
              Why is it that people think you can just add up how many ppg you estimate players will provide based on previous years and get a reasonable picture of an offense? Same with a defense, you can't just look at how individuals might fare relative to last year without looking at how they'll perform collectively. It's just far too simplistic a model. I get that it's fun and easy and paints a nice picture, but it ignores far, far too much of what basketball actually is; a team game.

              I think a lot of people are going to be unpleasantly surprised by just how ugly the Raptors' play is going to be on both ends of the court, especially early in the season.

              Comment


              • #8
                This entire analysis is ridiculous. Do you really think adding individuals point production on different teams (some in different leagues) and in different systems can actually translate into a meaningful prediction of the Raptors success next year? You must have a better way to spend your time.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Lark Benson wrote: View Post
                  I think a lot of people are going to be unpleasantly surprised by just how ugly the Raptors' play is going to be on both ends of the court, especially early in the season.
                  That's why it's critical the Raps keep a true point guard and for Derozan to create of the dribble. Otherwise i completely agree with you - it'll just be a bunch of players with the ball runnning towards the net hoping to score.

                  Defense is all about chemistry and individual will. This is something I think the Raptors will be allright with. It may be ugly early on, but I think it will start to come around relatively early. Last season was a mess chemistry wise, with a team not built properly (ie, too many non-complimentary players) and the Bosh problem hanging over everyone's head. One thing this group definitely has going for it in comparison to last year is the concept of "team", which is why I think the defense will be much better.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Statistics & Damn Lies

                    I usually read your comments Buddha and they seem thoughtful and well reasoned. But this latest makes no sense to me.

                    Part of your reasoning is based on minutes played, which I agree with as far as it goes. However, opposing defenses tended to key on Bosh. Doubles would come early or late creating openings for cutters and jump shooters on the weak side if he decided to pass out of the post (not often).

                    However, this dynamic will now change. Defenses will demand more honesty from our offense. I have been saying for a long time that Bargnani can be a great creator off the pick and roll but we may need to dribble drive and create space for the weak side jumpers in that way.

                    Either way, things will not be as easy. Defenses will not have too move or help as much.

                    So you can go on about minutes, and shots, and these types of things, but they are largely meaningless in the larger scheme of things. Maybe they'll see more minutes, and get more shots, but will the opposing defense have to work hard and will they get open looks throughout the game.

                    The simple answer is no. Now get back and play some D.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      black angus wrote: View Post
                      This entire analysis is ridiculous. Do you really think adding individuals point production on different teams (some in different leagues) and in different systems can actually translate into a meaningful prediction of the Raptors success next year? You must have a better way to spend your time.
                      Agree. By the way, Buddha has been averaging over 11 posts per day since joining RR, and it looks like he's doing this on a full time basis, but I just don't buy this.

                      Buddha, I enjoy most of your posts though, and thanks for the effort.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        You think this team will win more than 40 games !!

                        How about we make a bet on this?

                        If this team wins more than 40 game, I will never post on this site , but if they win less than 40 games, then you add the below to your signature.

                        " Amir Johnson sucks and is over paid. I know nothing about Basketball".

                        What do you say ? Are you up for it ?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          good thing for us that the teams u mentioned are no the only teams in the league. its true they got alot better but what u forget is that for every team that loaded up on players theres another team that lost a bunch so things will even out in the end. i still think T.O has a good shot at winning a bunch of games, even against Miami... i mean come on.. Miami's big three all like to go to the rim & get and1's & none of them is a great outside scorer so my guess is they will see alot of ZONE defence this year. & if u want to score on them just pound it inside... who going to stop that in miami?? Bosh??? BigZ??? I dont think soooo.

                          at least the big three in Boston all complement each others style & work as a unit.

                          i really dont see that in Miami
                          Last edited by DoNDaDDa; Fri Jul 23, 2010, 11:49 AM.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            DoNDaDDa wrote: View Post
                            good thing for us that the teams u mentioned are no the only teams in the league. its true they got alot better but what u forget is that for every team that loaded up on players theres another team that lost a bunch so things will even out in the end. i still think T.O has a good shot at winning a bunch of games, even against Miami... i mean come on.. Miami's big three all like to go to the rim & get and1's & none of them is a great outside scorer so my guess is they will see alot of ZONE defence this year. & if u want to score on them just pound it inside... who going to stop that in miami?? Bosh??? BigZ??? I dont think soooo.

                            at least the big three in Boston all complement each others style & work as a unit.

                            i really dont see that in Miami
                            Every single team on the Eastern conference got better (compared with last year).

                            With this analysis - looking at last year and by how many points we lost some games our win loss ratio will be something like 50-32 this year. Colangelo should change his name to Houdini or Copperfield if he figured that will happen by trading Chris Bosh for future first round picks and #1 Buddahfan should start charging for his posts/columns.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I rue the day people tried explaining basketball with mathematics. It doesn't work, stop trying. It works for baseball because baseball is for the most part an individual sport played by 9 guys a side. You can't just add and subtract points and make any sort of real estimation of the end result.

                              This team is much worse than last years, that's a fact that's noticeable without any numbers and calculations. On the off chance they perform better than last year it won't be due to some players making up for the 24/9 that Bosh put up, it'll be because the new system works better or an improvement by one of the younger players, or chemistry or one of the other million intangibles that go into TEAM SPORTS that can't be measured.

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