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A simple way to compare offensive effectiveness

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  • golden
    replied
    Maleko wrote: View Post
    What do I think? Rubbish. I am with Buddha on this one.
    It's pretty clear that Buddah and others don't really understand what USG% means. Let me provide kind of a rough guideline. In each of the categories below, assume that the player has a PPP (points per possession) effiency or offensive rating of 110 or higher, and the player is a starter who plays at least 30 minutes per game. Even with the exact same efficiency, the value of the player on offense can be dramatically different, depending on USG%:


    15% USG player
    - The other team barely guards you. Your offensive game is mostly tip-ins, alley-oops, put-backs, dunks, getting fouled on put-backs. Few, if any plays are run for you. If you're a perimeter player, you're probably a defensive specialist who gets un-guarded open 3's from the corner.
    - E.G. Tyson Chandler, Amir Johnson, Dikembe Mutombo, Shane Battier, Bruce Bowen

    20% USG player
    - You are a decent scorer. The other team respects your offensive game and you likely have a decent defender on you, but single coverage. Some plays are run for you.
    - You are possibly the 2nd option on your team.
    E.G. Andrea Bargnani (almost)

    25% USG player
    - You are probably your team's 1st option. You are likely seeing double-teams on a regular basis. Probably an all-star at some point in your career. E.G. Bosh

    30% USG player
    - You are an MVP candidate (Lebron, Wade, Kobe, Jordan). The entire league tries to figure out ways to stop you.

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  • Maleko
    replied
    What do I think? Rubbish. I am with Buddha on this one.

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  • pistol pete
    replied
    There's something strange here. Belinelli at 4, ahead of all the YGZ. I never have bought all this YGZ summer hype, but this scares me a bit.

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  • golden
    replied
    Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    So according to your theory

    What a player loses because of inefficiency they can make for with volume.

    So if a player who is not effecient on offense increases their share of the team's offense the team will get better.

    Sure it will.
    C'mon Buddah. You are twisting things here because you don't like what this says about Amir's offensive game at this stage. I love Amir, but he is limited. Of course, highly inefficient chuckers will hurt your team at some point - absolutely agree on that. That's not really the question to ask here. The question to ask is: which players on your roster have the ability to increase their usage with less drop off in efficiency? Finding the answer to that is what will help your team.

    At the same time, highly efficient, low usage guys can only help you to a limited extent too. Dean Oliver's work shows that every player is more efficient when his usage goes down. So, you can't have 5 Amir's on the court at 15% usage, because that's only 5x15=75% usage, and you need 100% and somebody's gotta take the shot. When one of those Amirs increases his usage to > 20% his efficiency will plummet. There's a reason why offensive players who can score in multiple ways and create their own offense are highly valued. As a Doug Collins said, "...people have no idea how difficult is to even get off a shot against NBA defenders." Scoring the ball is another level. Scoring efficiently is another level again. Scoring efficiently while carrying a huge load is the most difficult of all, because at that point the defense is basically focussed on you.

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  • Buddahfan
    replied
    So according to your theory

    What a player loses because of inefficiency they can make for with volume.

    So if a player who is not effecient on offense increases their share of the team's offense the team will get better.

    Sure it will.

    Leave a comment:


  • golden
    started a topic A simple way to compare offensive effectiveness

    A simple way to compare offensive effectiveness

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