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Bosh vs Johnson and Shot Selection - How Will The Raptors Offense Change in 10-11?

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  • Bosh vs Johnson and Shot Selection - How Will The Raptors Offense Change in 10-11?

    I wanted to take a look at how the Raptors offense may change with Johnson in the starting lineup vs Bosh.

    09-10 FGA per Game as Starter
    -------------------------------------
    Bosh----------16.5
    Johnson------11.2

    A couple of assumptions
    ------------------------------
    1. With Johnson likely to start the Raptors will design some plays for him so on a per minute basis his FGA's should go up
    2. He will have an improved jump shot
    3. He will average as many mpg in 10-11 as he did in 09-10 as a starter; i.e. 32.7. Now I realize that this is a very big stretch compared to what almost everyone one of us is expecting to happen. However, lets just run with this and hope than Amir can stay on the court.

    So lets say that Amir averages 13 shots per game in 10-11 vs Bosh's 16.5 shot per game

    Bosh got most of his shots from

    Play--------%-----PPP
    ------------------------------
    Post-Up---35%----1.09
    ISO--------18%-----.92
    -------------------------------
    ST---------53%
    ===================

    Johnson got most of his shots from

    Play--------%-----PPP
    ----------------------------
    P&R Man---19%----1.38
    Cut---------16%----1.25 ***
    Post--------13%----1.21
    -----------------------------------
    Totals------48%
    ==================

    *** Shots on Put Backs
    ------------------------------
    Play--------%-----PPP
    ----------------------------
    Bosh--------9%----1.32
    Johnson---17%----1.28

    Transition Game
    ------------------------------
    Play--------%-----PPP
    ----------------------------
    Bosh--------4%----1.11
    Johnson---12%----1.54



    Conclusion
    ============
    1. The only play that Bosh had a higher PPP on then Johnson was interestingly enough on Put-Backs. This was due primarily to Bosh ability to score and get fouled on the put-backs. About 9% of Bosh's put backs resulted in an "and-one" vs Johnson just 3%

    2. Bosh loved the post-up shot almost as much as Bargs loves the spot-up shot. (Too much damn jump shooting.) Johnson also used the post-up shot as his fourth favorite way of scoring. Johnson had a significantly higher PPP on post-up shots than Bosh; i.e. 1.21 vs 109.

    Though some would say most of that difference can be explained by the fact that Bosh was double and even triple teamed a lot on that type of play while Johnson was not. Fair enough. However, since Johnson only used this play on 13% of the his plays then I wouldn't expect him to get double teamed too much more on this play in 10-11 then in 09-10. So he should be able to maintain the higher PPP on the post-up, if not even improve it slightly with practice.

    3. Bosh also loved the dreaded ISO play. G-d do I hate this play. Even watching it is boring. Between the time a player gets the ball and shoots it on an ISO I can send at least two to three tweets. Boring shot and inefficient as hell. Bosh had a PPP of only .92 on this type of play. As I have posted elsewhere the ISO is one of the least effective plays a team can run. So why do they run it? Because it allows the shooter and other nine players on the court to get their wind back.

    4. Transition Game (see above for #s) - Bosh had none. Johnson has a great one. Nuff said.

    4. Johnson got a lot of shots on P&R and Cuts. They accounted for 35% of Johnson's plays. They were both extremely effective with PPP of 1.38 and 1.25 respectively, The P&R and Cut plays only accounted for 17% of Bosh's plays about half of Johnson's percentage. Bosh also had high PPPs on these plays of 1.24 and 1.31. I think the reason that Bosh didn't use those plays more often is because he isn't really that quick any more and the shooter is more likely to get pounded by a defender or two on these plays than on the Post-up and ISO play

    If Johnson can play 30+ mpg then we might expect to see a lot quicker paced game in 10-11 vs 09-10 and the Raptors might actually score more. Remember it is a hell of a lot easier to double and triple team Post-UP and ISO shots than it is to double and triple team the Transition Game, P&R and Cut plays.

    Source: Synergy Sports Tech
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Mon Sep 20, 2010, 11:32 AM.
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  • #2
    This is Rubbish. As are pretty much all of Buddahfan's posts that try to use efficiency (i.e. PPP or Ortg) as the sole metric in offensive performance. Efficiency without taking into account Usage (USG% or POSS%) is completely useless. BTW - I am big fan of Amir Johnson, but seriously?

    It's pretty clear that Buddah and others don't really understand what USG% means. ALL players efficiency decreases with increased usage, because they become more of the focus of the opposing defence. The more developed the offensive game, the higher the usage can be before the efficiency drops off. Below is kind of a rough guideline. In each of the categories below, assume that the player has a PPP (points per possession) effiency or Ortg offensive rating of 110 or higher, and the player is a starter who plays at least 30 minutes per game. Even with the exact same efficiency, the value of the player on offense can be dramatically different, depending on USG%:


    15% USG player
    - The other team barely guards you. Your offensive game is mostly tip-ins, alley-oops, put-backs, dunks, getting fouled on put-backs. Few, if any plays are run for you. If you're a perimeter player, you're probably a defensive specialist who gets un-guarded open 3's from the corner.
    - E.G. Tyson Chandler, Andris Biedrins, Joakim Noah, Amir Johnson, Dikembe Mutombo, Shane Battier, Bruce Bowen

    20% USG player
    - You are a decent scorer. The other team respects your offensive game and you likely have a decent defender on you, but single coverage. Some plays are run for you.
    - You are possibly the 2nd option on your team.
    E.G. Andrea Bargnani (almost)

    25% USG player
    - You are probably your team's 1st option. You are likely seeing double-teams on a regular basis. Probably an all-star at some point in your career. E.G. Bosh

    30% USG player
    - You are an MVP candidate (Lebron, Wade, Kobe, Jordan). The entire league tries to figure out ways to stop you

    Comment


    • #3
      golden wrote: View Post
      ALL players efficiency decreases with increased usage, because they become more of the focus of the opposing defence
      Buddahfan wrote: View Post
      If Johnson can play 30+ mpg then we might expect to see a lot quicker paced game in 10-11 vs 09-10 and the Raptors might actually score more. Remember it is a hell of a lot easier to double and triple team Post-UP and ISO shots than it is to double and triple team the Transition Game, P&R and Cut plays.

      Source: Synergy Sports Tech
      1. ISO and Post-Up Jump shot plays are clearly easier to double and triple team than, the P&R, Cut and Transition plays.

      Anyone who watches basketball knows this.

      There is no evidence to suggest that efficiency goes down with USG% when a player gets most of his baskets within five feet of the basket on motion plays like Johnson does.

      The P&R is one of the most efficient plays in the league. Just ask the Raptors when they tried to defend it last season.

      Johnson scores mostly off of motion plays. Plays where he is moving. It is a lot harder to defend that than it is some ISO or Post-Up plays.

      The P&R, Cut and Transition plays all start above the free throw line. Players are set in motion and when open they get the pass, catch it and finish. Yes they can be double teamed once they are in motion but then what happens is the other 3 defenders are left guarding four players and the pass has not even been made. That opens up your entire offense. So if the the P&R man or Cutter man is doubled you just don't pass him the ball and you now have an open man to pass to.

      A teams whole offense gets better when you have a player like Johnson who can catch the ball in traffic, which he can and then finish at the rim like he can. Since he is in motion on these plays and this goes even for Bosh or any other good finisher on these plays like Amar'e. it is harder to double yet alone triple team him.

      Transition Game - As long as the Raptors can force turnovers and get their share of rebounds as a team, which is a bit of a question at this time, as well as last season with Johnson replacing Bosh they will use the transition game more in 10-11 then they did in 09-10. Not too much double or triple teaming the Transition game.

      ---------------------
      Johnson's USG% was lower in Detroit because his role was garbage man because that is what they needed him to do, not because he could not score.

      When the came to the Raptors last season he came as a garbage man. However, Triano and English were smart enough to realize that Johnson actually has the ability to be a 15- 20 ppg scorer in the NBA with some work on this game and incorporating his running style into the offense. This culminated in the last four games of the season where Johnson averaged over 18 ppg.

      Yes the competition was weaker however I still expect to see more along the lines of these numbers in 10-11 if he can stay on the court for 30 plus mpg.

      We are not too far away from finding out.
      Last edited by Buddahfan; Mon Sep 20, 2010, 12:00 PM.
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      Comment


      • #4
        Buddahfan wrote: View Post

        There is no evidence to suggest that efficiency goes down with USG% when a player gets most of his baskets within five feet of the basket on motion plays like Johnson does.
        Buddah, this one statement exposes your ignorance on the entire subject and now makes it easier to understand why there is a fatal flaw in every post you have made using low usage PPP as the sole metric to extrapolate increased performance.

        There is EVERY evidence that efficiency goes down with ANY successful play. Why? Because when a play is successful at above average success rate, the defense adjusts. I repeat. When a certain play is successful - the defense makes adjustments to stop that play. This is a simple concept to understand, and it is not even limited to basketball. This is a general sports concept. I mean, if a Chris Paul-Tyson Chandler pick and roll is so damn efficient, why didn't Byron Scott run it more often to save his job? Why didn't Vinnie Del Negro run more plays for Joakim Noah? It must be because those guys are stupid and don't have access to Synergy Sports database. It can't possibly be because Tyson Chandler and Joakim Noah have limitations on offense, and would get killed when the defense actually starts to focus on them? ;-))

        Serously, do you yourself really believe that replacing Chris Bosh with Amir Johnson straight up will result in better offense? Or is this some kind of sophisticated trolling?

        BTW. Please educate yourself below on the hard evidence that offensive efficiency will decrease with USG% or POSS%. Every player follows this curve and no player is immune, regardless of how he scores, or what type of play is run.

        http://bit.ly/aFr1ki

        Comment


        • #5
          I wonder why did Bosh and not Amir start, then.
          p.s.: at first I meant it as a joke, but maybe it's not a joke at all

          Comment


          • #6
            Show me the numbers where the efficiency for a team goes down when they run more pick and roll, cuts and transition then when they run ISO and Post-Up.

            Now I could prove my point by using Synergy's website if I have a mind to.

            All I have to do is look the PPP for each of the teams as a whole by type of play. I am sure that you will find that the ISO is by far and away the most inefficient play that a team can run. With the P&R, Cuts and Transition being among the highest in PPP across the board for most teams in the NBA.

            In fact I may just do that or not do that later.

            I am trying to hold my tongue on this USG% subject as it relates to Amir

            You can ask anyone who is on any of the Pistons forums or email Keith Langlois or Jason Fleming about how I beeched for two years that Amir was not getting enough touches.

            Now today the reason occurred to me.

            1. Like I said they needed him to rebound and do the garbage stuff
            2. But what occurred to me today in breaking down how Amir scores. The Pistons when he played for them never rain those type of plays. They walked the ball up the court and scored mostly off of ISOs, screens and spot up jump shots.

            So Amir's strengths on offense, namely his ability to run, jump, and catch were not used by the Pistons because they had no one else who could score that way so the plays were not in their playbook. Why change your playbook for a bench player?

            However, in Toronto things are different. Guys like DeRozan, Kleiza and Weems can also score in transition and cut plays and Calderon can run the P&R on offense and Klieza can score on the P&R on offense and has the body strength to be able to run that play. His hands in catching are not as good as Amir's but that is for another time. So Johnson's skills on offense fit more into what the Raptors are going to want to do in 10-11 as a team as a whole.

            So the whole team will play this way. It is not that Johnson will go off and become a 20+ a game scorer. It is that the way that he, DeMar and Weems and even Kleiza to a certain extent all score. So by removing Bosh the whole offense speeds up and hence possibly more points on offense in 10-11 then 09-10.

            You might want to look at the whole team picture and not pigeon hole your vision

            Just saying.
            Last edited by Buddahfan; Mon Sep 20, 2010, 12:52 PM.
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            Comment


            • #7
              Buddahfan wrote: View Post

              You might want to look at the whole team picture and not pigeon hole your vision
              Just saying.
              Same thing back at you. You can't just say team pick & roll is a more efficient strategy, therefore Amir will be more efficient. Once again, that will prove nothing. It depends completely on the individuals running the pick & roll. Stockton & Malone worked because Karl Malone had secondary and tertiary scoring options (mid-range games, variety of face-ups, etc...) when they took away the post-ups. Similar thing with Bosh & Calderon, to a lesser extent, because Bosh had a deadly face-up jumper, quickness and above average handle for PF. Amir hasn't shown that level of variety on offense YET. However, I'm pulling for him, though. If Amir develops a mid-range jumper and cuts out the Bosh-wannabe Amir3000 diva BS, then he might become my favourite Raptor player. THAT is the way how he can increase USG% without decreasing efficiency too much.

              Trying to run more pick & roll through Amir 2009-10 is not going to work. It may work short term, but again, opposing teams will get back in transition and force the Raps into a half-court, and Amir will be receiving the ball in the high post, with the pace slowed down. You think watching Bosh freeze up with the ball in his hands was painful?

              Really, we need to discuss this again when Amir's USG% is above 20% and check his efficiency. But I have my doubts Amir even gets to > 20% USG, which is indpendent of how long he stays on the court, BTW. If this works as well as you say it is going to, then there is no doubt that the Raps go to Amir more on offense. Despite other faults, Jay Triano is a decent offensive coach, and pretty much any NBA coach will milk a successful strategy until there is a counter.

              Comment


              • #8
                All I know for sure is that I will NOT miss the Bosh's go-to-pet-ISO play where he catches the ball, faces up, sizes up the D, pump fakes, sizes up the D, then shoots a jumper that is more predictable in its approach than the Winter season. I always hated that, and since Johnson has no business in even feigning a potential drive to the basket, we probably won't have to deal with such stagnant offensive shenanigans.

                Comment


                • #9
                  You might want to check out the new thread I just put up where Triano says that he will be changing the playbook to put in a lot of just those type of plays that I was saying.

                  No more responses from me on this thread.

                  We can discuss what the Raptors, because that is what it is all about, will be doing with their offense on the Triano thread that I just started.

                  #pause.
                  Avatar: Riverboat Coffee House 134 Yorkville Ave. billboard of upcoming entertainers - Circa 1960s

                  Memories some so sweet, indeed

                  Larger Photo of the avatar



                  Quote from well known personality who led their high school team to a state championship.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Buddah,

                    Im new to the forum but long time raps season ticket holder and fan from day one - but I had to chime in on this Amir vs Bargs point. I like Amir and think he'll be much improved this year (a poor man's Joakim Noah?), but you are missing some obvious fundamental points when you analyze the numbers (especially vs. Bargs).

                    - Golden is bang on that effiency will drop with usage. Not only do other teams start to scheme to stop you, but also, you get tired. Its easy to come off the bench and provide energy points and put backs (Amir's specialty) in 5 minute spurts - but its a heck of a lot harder to do that consistently as a starter for 30-35 mins (and against the other team's top players, not their bench).
                    - Your analysis doesnt fully account for the fact that somebody has to shoot the first shot in an offense in order for guys like Amir to thrive. If you had 5 Amirs (ie guys that cant create their own shot by facing up / posting up a defender) your team will flounder and be a shot clock violation waiting to happen.
                    - Guys like Bargs - as akward as he is at times - can at least create their own shot, draw a double team from time to time and get something at the hoop for guys like Amir to clean up. Without them - Amir isnt left unboxed out for many of the rebounds / put backs that he gets. These are also the guys that get the ball with < 5 seconds on the shot clock and are forced to make something happen - this never happens to Amir (or at least hasnt yet in his career) because everyone on the team knows he cant do anything with it from that spot
                    - Note - the Raps only have a few guys who fit this bill (in order) Bargs, Jack, Kleiza (maybe), Sonny / DD (both still working on it - but hopefully better this year) - which scares me. Admittedly, we should have a better running game where Sonny/DD/Amir will excel - but our half court prospects look iffy at best ..
                    - Finally - I know its popular to bash Bargs - but hes the most skilled player we have and the only player (including Bosh when we had him) who can draw a legit double team. Maybe stats don't pick this stuff up - but trust me, guys like Amir (and a lot of the other Raps) would be shaking in their boots if they had to create shots from the spots he has to. Hes already used to getting the ball in these spots (although not enough due to Bosh in the past) and I expect him to get to continue to improve at it this year.

                    Maybe you guys will prove me wrong and Amir / Davis will be starting 30 games in, but I think its more likely that people look at Bargs 20 games in and wonder what all the complaining was about and thank god we didnt waste our money on Bosh ..

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Buddahfan wrote: View Post
                      You might want to check out the new thread I just put up where Triano says that he will be changing the playbook to put in a lot of just those type of plays that I was saying.

                      No more responses from me on this thread.

                      We can discuss what the Raptors, because that is what it is all about, will be doing with their offense on the Triano thread that I just started.

                      #pause.
                      In other words.... pwned. j/k. I like the fact that you're keeping interest high in the offseason, of what will be a trying year for the fans. Seriously, MLSE should be paying you for this.

                      Actually, I was thinking about your other comment, and an example came to mind.

                      Buddahfan wrote: View Post
                      There is no evidence to suggest that efficiency goes down with USG% when a player gets most of his baskets within five feet of the basket on motion plays like Johnson does.
                      Kenyon Martin.

                      Circa 2001-04, New Jersey Nets. Featuring J. Kidd, RJ & K-Mart on offense. K-Mart has almost identical athletic skill set to Amir, if not better offensive package. Aggressive defenders, great rebounders, great hands, great in transition, great movement without the ball. Very similar players.

                      HOWEVER. Even with the advantage of a future Hall of Fame point guard in his prime, and an uptempo system, when K-Mart's USG% increased to over 20%, his ORtg sputtered to around 100. This is likely the best case we can hope for Amir, and we don't even have J-Kidd. Those Nets teams were successful, though. They won with outstanding defence, and in spite of inefficient offense.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        mountio wrote: View Post
                        Guys like Bargs - as akward as he is at times - can at least create their own shot, draw a double team from time to time and get something at the hoop for guys like Amir to clean up.
                        Actually, Bargs hasn't really shown a consistent ability to create his own shot anymore than Amir, atleast ones that go in at a good percentage.

                        It's been shown time and again that he gets assisted on his field goals more than anyone else on the team, and is very poor at getting to the line.

                        Maybe this season we'll see a different Bargnani, but there is really no evidence to call him anything more than a very effective catch and shoot player until he proves otherwise.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Brasky wrote: View Post
                          Actually, Bargs hasn't really shown a consistent ability to create his own shot anymore than Amir, atleast ones that go in at a good percentage.

                          It's been shown time and again that he gets assisted on his field goals more than anyone else on the team, and is very poor at getting to the line.

                          Maybe this season we'll see a different Bargnani, but there is really no evidence to call him anything more than a very effective catch and shoot player until he proves otherwise.
                          You might be getting too caught up in the "create" part of "create your own shot". Andrea can score - you have to give him that. And he's on the cusp of the better scorers in the league. The league average offensive efficiency rating was 107 Ortg last year. Do you know how hard it is to carry even your own fair share (1/5th = > 20% USG) of the offense and still maintain league average Ortg? And on top of that, maintain that efficiency for > 30 MPG?

                          Well, if you check out the search on Basketball Reference, you can see that it is a short list of the most productive & efficient scorers in the league. Sure, Andrea is near the bottom of the list, but at least he makes it.

                          Regarding Amir, he's not even in the same conversation on offense. Amir will have trouble staying on the court, and even then his O game is so limited that it's doubtful he can ever carry his share of the offense.

                          http://www.basketball-reference.com/...y.cgi?id=jxk0M

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            golden wrote: View Post
                            You might be getting too caught up in the "create" part of "create your own shot". Andrea can score - you have to give him that. And he's on the cusp of the better scorers in the league. The league average offensive efficiency rating was 107 Ortg last year. Do you know how hard it is to carry even your own fair share (1/5th = > 20% USG) of the offense and still maintain league average Ortg? And on top of that, maintain that efficiency for > 30 MPG?
                            No one's saying he's not a good mid/high usage scorer. However, up until now, he has relied heavily on others creating opportunities for him, mainly on kick outs, and anytime he's had to be the 'Man', his efficiency has plummeted to unacceptable levels.

                            In the NBA game, you need guys who are going to create high percentage looks. That's just the way it is. I hope Bargnani takes this next step offensively, because if he doesn't, this team will crash and burn in the half court.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              No one's saying he's not a good mid/high usage scorer. However, up until now, he has relied heavily on others creating opportunities for him, mainly on kick outs, and anytime he's had to be the 'Man', his efficiency has plummeted to unacceptable levels.

                              In the NBA game, you need guys who are going to create high percentage looks. That's just the way it is. I hope Bargnani takes this next step offensively, because if he doesn't, this team will crash and burn in the half court.
                              I'm not sure I understand where the problem is. A draw and kick is a standard NBA play that any point guard can make. Not just PGs, even some PFs and Cs can kick the ball out effectively. Jack and Calderon are now considered to be average to below-average PGs in the NBA these days, and can hardly be considered the type of point guards who break down the defense to create high percentage shots for their teammates.

                              So, if you're saying that Andrea scores efficiently off draw and kicks then that's great. He can be successful offensively in the NBA for a long time on any team, any offense.

                              On the other point, you are quite correct. Whether he can be the Man and maintain his efficiency with the opposing defences now focussed on him as the #1 option remains to be seen.

                              Comment

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