I wanted to take a look at how the Raptors offense may change with Johnson in the starting lineup vs Bosh.
09-10 FGA per Game as Starter
-------------------------------------
Bosh----------16.5
Johnson------11.2
A couple of assumptions
------------------------------
1. With Johnson likely to start the Raptors will design some plays for him so on a per minute basis his FGA's should go up
2. He will have an improved jump shot
3. He will average as many mpg in 10-11 as he did in 09-10 as a starter; i.e. 32.7. Now I realize that this is a very big stretch compared to what almost everyone one of us is expecting to happen. However, lets just run with this and hope than Amir can stay on the court.
So lets say that Amir averages 13 shots per game in 10-11 vs Bosh's 16.5 shot per game
Bosh got most of his shots from
Play--------%-----PPP
------------------------------
Post-Up---35%----1.09
ISO--------18%-----.92
-------------------------------
ST---------53%
===================
Johnson got most of his shots from
Play--------%-----PPP
----------------------------
P&R Man---19%----1.38
Cut---------16%----1.25 ***
Post--------13%----1.21
-----------------------------------
Totals------48%
==================
*** Shots on Put Backs
------------------------------
Play--------%-----PPP
----------------------------
Bosh--------9%----1.32
Johnson---17%----1.28
Transition Game
------------------------------
Play--------%-----PPP
----------------------------
Bosh--------4%----1.11
Johnson---12%----1.54
Conclusion
============
1. The only play that Bosh had a higher PPP on then Johnson was interestingly enough on Put-Backs. This was due primarily to Bosh ability to score and get fouled on the put-backs. About 9% of Bosh's put backs resulted in an "and-one" vs Johnson just 3%
2. Bosh loved the post-up shot almost as much as Bargs loves the spot-up shot. (Too much damn jump shooting.) Johnson also used the post-up shot as his fourth favorite way of scoring. Johnson had a significantly higher PPP on post-up shots than Bosh; i.e. 1.21 vs 109.
Though some would say most of that difference can be explained by the fact that Bosh was double and even triple teamed a lot on that type of play while Johnson was not. Fair enough. However, since Johnson only used this play on 13% of the his plays then I wouldn't expect him to get double teamed too much more on this play in 10-11 then in 09-10. So he should be able to maintain the higher PPP on the post-up, if not even improve it slightly with practice.
3. Bosh also loved the dreaded ISO play. G-d do I hate this play. Even watching it is boring. Between the time a player gets the ball and shoots it on an ISO I can send at least two to three tweets. Boring shot and inefficient as hell. Bosh had a PPP of only .92 on this type of play. As I have posted elsewhere the ISO is one of the least effective plays a team can run. So why do they run it? Because it allows the shooter and other nine players on the court to get their wind back.
4. Transition Game (see above for #s) - Bosh had none. Johnson has a great one. Nuff said.
4. Johnson got a lot of shots on P&R and Cuts. They accounted for 35% of Johnson's plays. They were both extremely effective with PPP of 1.38 and 1.25 respectively, The P&R and Cut plays only accounted for 17% of Bosh's plays about half of Johnson's percentage. Bosh also had high PPPs on these plays of 1.24 and 1.31. I think the reason that Bosh didn't use those plays more often is because he isn't really that quick any more and the shooter is more likely to get pounded by a defender or two on these plays than on the Post-up and ISO play
If Johnson can play 30+ mpg then we might expect to see a lot quicker paced game in 10-11 vs 09-10 and the Raptors might actually score more. Remember it is a hell of a lot easier to double and triple team Post-UP and ISO shots than it is to double and triple team the Transition Game, P&R and Cut plays.
Source: Synergy Sports Tech
09-10 FGA per Game as Starter
-------------------------------------
Bosh----------16.5
Johnson------11.2
A couple of assumptions
------------------------------
1. With Johnson likely to start the Raptors will design some plays for him so on a per minute basis his FGA's should go up
2. He will have an improved jump shot
3. He will average as many mpg in 10-11 as he did in 09-10 as a starter; i.e. 32.7. Now I realize that this is a very big stretch compared to what almost everyone one of us is expecting to happen. However, lets just run with this and hope than Amir can stay on the court.
So lets say that Amir averages 13 shots per game in 10-11 vs Bosh's 16.5 shot per game
Bosh got most of his shots from
Play--------%-----PPP
------------------------------
Post-Up---35%----1.09
ISO--------18%-----.92
-------------------------------
ST---------53%
===================
Johnson got most of his shots from
Play--------%-----PPP
----------------------------
P&R Man---19%----1.38
Cut---------16%----1.25 ***
Post--------13%----1.21
-----------------------------------
Totals------48%
==================
*** Shots on Put Backs
------------------------------
Play--------%-----PPP
----------------------------
Bosh--------9%----1.32
Johnson---17%----1.28
Transition Game
------------------------------
Play--------%-----PPP
----------------------------
Bosh--------4%----1.11
Johnson---12%----1.54
Conclusion
============
1. The only play that Bosh had a higher PPP on then Johnson was interestingly enough on Put-Backs. This was due primarily to Bosh ability to score and get fouled on the put-backs. About 9% of Bosh's put backs resulted in an "and-one" vs Johnson just 3%
2. Bosh loved the post-up shot almost as much as Bargs loves the spot-up shot. (Too much damn jump shooting.) Johnson also used the post-up shot as his fourth favorite way of scoring. Johnson had a significantly higher PPP on post-up shots than Bosh; i.e. 1.21 vs 109.
Though some would say most of that difference can be explained by the fact that Bosh was double and even triple teamed a lot on that type of play while Johnson was not. Fair enough. However, since Johnson only used this play on 13% of the his plays then I wouldn't expect him to get double teamed too much more on this play in 10-11 then in 09-10. So he should be able to maintain the higher PPP on the post-up, if not even improve it slightly with practice.
3. Bosh also loved the dreaded ISO play. G-d do I hate this play. Even watching it is boring. Between the time a player gets the ball and shoots it on an ISO I can send at least two to three tweets. Boring shot and inefficient as hell. Bosh had a PPP of only .92 on this type of play. As I have posted elsewhere the ISO is one of the least effective plays a team can run. So why do they run it? Because it allows the shooter and other nine players on the court to get their wind back.
4. Transition Game (see above for #s) - Bosh had none. Johnson has a great one. Nuff said.
4. Johnson got a lot of shots on P&R and Cuts. They accounted for 35% of Johnson's plays. They were both extremely effective with PPP of 1.38 and 1.25 respectively, The P&R and Cut plays only accounted for 17% of Bosh's plays about half of Johnson's percentage. Bosh also had high PPPs on these plays of 1.24 and 1.31. I think the reason that Bosh didn't use those plays more often is because he isn't really that quick any more and the shooter is more likely to get pounded by a defender or two on these plays than on the Post-up and ISO play
If Johnson can play 30+ mpg then we might expect to see a lot quicker paced game in 10-11 vs 09-10 and the Raptors might actually score more. Remember it is a hell of a lot easier to double and triple team Post-UP and ISO shots than it is to double and triple team the Transition Game, P&R and Cut plays.
Source: Synergy Sports Tech
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